Tom Graff🔸
@tdgraff
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Chief Investment Officer @join_facet. Markets, Fed, macro. Hopefully informative, but no promises. Watch me on YouTube: https://t.co/7XLPzkU9SN
Baltimore, MD
Joined May 2011
They say that most amateur tennis matches are lost, not won. I.e., it isn't about hitting winners but about avoiding mistakes. Just keep returning the ball and it will work out. I think that's more true in investing than many of us want to admit.
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Sumerlin showing himself to be a reasonable guy here. I'll note that (all else equal) a less credible Fed would cause the curve to steepen.
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This one ran a little long but I think it's important. My in-depth look at the major Fed Chair candidates, including a few thoughts on some less likely ones. I also touch on my take on what this decision means for Fed independence.
facet.com
We appear to be getting closer to President Donald Trump making a decision on who he will nominate to be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Current Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May of 2026,...
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RT @IBD_ECarson: @scottlincicome The "We need tariffs for American producers to compete" T-shirt answers a lot of questions about what *tar….
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Make me a list of things less pleasant than the average Uber from the Airport to your downtown hotel in most cities. It won't be a long list.
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RT @mtkonczal: Core inflation was above expectations and had its highest print since January. But I don't think that really conveys how mu….
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I realize he is auditioning, but nothing he's saying is wrong here.
Marc Sumerlin: Inflation isn't a serious problem right now. Tariffs are a tax hike. Tax increases lower inflation because they lower after-tax income. If the Fed had known the May & June jobs reports were as weak as they were, they could have cut rates by 25 bps in June & July.
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I'd love to hear thoughts on the following:.Say there is a last mile problem in AI. Progress continues but is very incremental from now on. What happens to capex spend?.
OpenAI’s struggles before the release of GPT-5 point to a slowing rate of AI progress across the industry.
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The only thing that makes sense here is that Bessent is interviewing *everyone* to gather intel. There is *zero* chance Jefferson is a serious candidate.
bloomberg.com
The Federal Reserve’s two vice chairs, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are under consideration to serve as chair of the central bank when the position opens...
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I think the people gnashing their teeth over private funds in 401ks haven't looked at how many terrible traditional stock/bond funds are in 401ks now.
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Honestly, this is impressively fast if it happens.
Donald Trump Plans To Launch Initial Public Offerings For Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Later This Year, Says Wall Street Journal.
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People are dunking on this, but if taken narrowly, I agree with Bessent. It is most likely that tariffs are a 1x price increase over a short period, and that isn't inflation in a textbook sense. I don't think the public at large will make this distinction though.
Bessent: It would not have been inflation. A one-time price adjustment is just like does your driver's license license cost more this year.
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RT @NickTimiraos: Last year, Miran and a co-author decried the "revolving door" between the Fed and the executive branch. "Short-circuiti….
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This is clearly good news IMO. Waller is probably the least partisan of all the candidates that have been rumored. I do wonder if part of his appeal is that nominating Waller probably makes it more likely Powell would resign his governorship.
Waller emerges as favorite for Fed Chair among Trump team via @business.
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People ask me if tariffs will "work" and my answer is "no." But I don't mean that it won't create *any* increase in US manufacturing. If you subsidize something (in this case, via protectionism) you will get more of it. It is a matter of the cost of doing so.
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I don't really understand the strategic value of Trump picking a "temporary" Fed gov only to replace that person later. The Fed has had renegade voters many times in the past. Those people haven't carried any influence. If POTUS really wants change, nominate the new Chair now.
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Reupping this as Trump is saying he'll nominate Kugler's replacement by the end of the week. I think Trump tipped his hand a little with the "Sometimes they’re all very good, until you put them in there" comment about Warsh. My $ is on Hassett. He checks all the boxes.
I think we should assume:.- Kugler's replacement will be the intended next Fed Chair.- Trump doesn't want a prolonged Senate battle bc he wants his influence on the Fed to start quickly.- He'll pick someone partisan but easily acceptable by GOP senators.
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Fwiw, I'd be surprised if Powell actually stayed on after May, but Trump won't want to take that risk. I also think people are forgetting how many Fed nominees the Senate (quietly) rejected. Moore, Shelton, Cain, etc.
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I think we should assume:.- Kugler's replacement will be the intended next Fed Chair.- Trump doesn't want a prolonged Senate battle bc he wants his influence on the Fed to start quickly.- He'll pick someone partisan but easily acceptable by GOP senators.
“I love Scott, but he wants to stay where he is,” says @realDonaldTrump of Treasury Sec. Bessent being a potential Fed chair nominee. “He does not want it.”.
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RT @ernietedeschi: BLS's first-release estimates of nonfarm payroll employment have gotten more, not less, accurate over time. https://t.co….
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