Altimeter Capital
@AltimeterCap
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We research and invest in tech innovation, backing visionary founders and companies in public and private markets. Disclaimers: https://t.co/hUVZJoTrdz
Menlo Park & Boston
Joined March 2024
Altimeter Founder & CEO, Brad Gerstner (@altcap), joined 'Squawk Box' to discuss the future of the Invest America Act, the state of the AI trade, impact of AI on productivity, volatility, and more.
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Micro-dramas (short-form dramas) have created massive disruption in China, reshaping both long-form streaming and short-form video. The same dynamic is likely to play out globally. ByteDance’s micro-drama platform Hongguo has already reached ~250M MAUs, growing from near zero
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Prediction Markets: If the numbers are directionally right, prediction markets may already be at ~15–30% share of NFL betting. 4Q25 snapshot: @Kalshi + @Polymarket reportedly doing ~$1.6B per week in sports volume → ~$21B over 4Q Converting to traditional sportsbook handle
Been thinking about the predication market, which only truly broke into the mainstream during the U.S. election cycle. A new species that's hard to classify. Are they betting? Crypto? AI? Stock trading? Or maybe the new knowledge market of the world? $HOOD handled $1B in
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In this moment being serious is very important, it's an opportunity for people to step into a good quest. @traestephens speaks with intention and clarity on many things in this interview. Below were 2 of my favs: 1. The Intersection of AI, Defense and Autonomy and what it
FULL INTERVIEW: Trae Stephens (@traestephens), Co-Founder & Executive Chairman of Anduril (& Partner at Founders Fund) Built when defense tech was still taboo, @anduriltech's Palantir DNA & Peter Thiel–influenced bet on software, autonomy, manufacturing scale, & just-war ethics
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Awesome to see the team at @physical_int continue to push the boundaries. Pumped to be partnered with them at @AltimeterCap!
We discovered an emergent property of VLAs like π0/π0.5/π0.6: as we scale up pre-training, the model learns to align human videos and robot data! This gives us a simple way to leverage human videos. Once π0.5 knows how to control robots, it can naturally learn from human video.
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As some readers noted, the Waymo BOM cost reduction from 5th gen to 6th gen is likely underappreciated. A ~50% cut is plausible - from ~$150k+ per vehicle to ~$70k. 5th Gen - Jaguar I-PACE Waymo receives finished Jaguars, tears them down, and retrofits sensors and compute. This
Waymo GMV and scale - back-of-the-envelope Assuming ~450k trips per week (Tiger Global investor letter) or ~3,000 cars on the road (Waymo official commentary), and ~$16 per trip (shorter than Uber trips, but comparable on a per-mile basis), Waymo’s current GMV run-rate is
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Mindset matters! Leadership matters. @mttgrmm shares the subtle but important mindset @anduriltech approaches new opportunities with. “The question is never what can go wrong? The question is always how do we make it go right!” Finding and recruiting people with this positive
FULL R&D TOUR: Anduril COO, Matt Grimm (@mttgrmm) A rare look inside Anduril’s ~650k sq ft HQ where ideas become fielded products: touring the 200k sq ft R&D lab to XL-AUV (Ghost Shark), Menace & Titan (partnership w/ Palantir) BTS story of how @anduriltech scaled from a moldy
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Waymo GMV and scale - back-of-the-envelope Assuming ~450k trips per week (Tiger Global investor letter) or ~3,000 cars on the road (Waymo official commentary), and ~$16 per trip (shorter than Uber trips, but comparable on a per-mile basis), Waymo’s current GMV run-rate is
Autonomous Driving’s Unit Economics: $Waymo's "Hardware Problem" Andrej Karpathy recently made a thought-provoking statement: " $TSLA (FSD) may still have a software problem, but Waymo has a hardware problem. Between the two, software is much easier to solve.” 🔎Here's a
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A running tracker of non-tech AI beneficiaries: AI ROI is top of mind, but the search for returns is overly concentrated on Big Tech. Meanwhile, many traditional, non-tech companies are already reporting clear, quantifiable AI-driven gains. Two framing points: • Every 1%
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Huge congrats to @databricks! We're pumped to be investors at @AltimeterCap. Not many companies have stacked S curves like Databricks. Here's a slide from our 2024 annual meeting. Postgres, Agent Bricks and Apps now represent the newest S Curves for the company
Excited to raise $4B+ in our latest fundraise! We shared that we will primarily be using the capital to invest in: 1️⃣ Lakebase Postgres - serverless database for Agents 2️⃣ Agent Bricks - high quality agents that can reason on enterprise data 3️⃣ Databricks Apps - Data Intelligence
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An interesting thought on this Nemotron 3 model by Nvidia: Models are being innovated on to fit specific use cases / hardware ! Nemotron 3 hybrid SSM-MoE architecture separates "Attention" into a two tier system - crudely like RAM vs SSD for a traditional computer. Attention is
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US Gov’t has gone full warp speed on military modernization & Tech. 🇺🇸🚀
Join an elite group of technologists to transform the federal government through modern software development. Go to https://t.co/Jv6v8D7k3i to apply today
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Heard from @theinformation about VC LPs this week: This 📊 from this week haunted me. For any of us that raise VC $$, this year was anything but quiet. I think this data is wildly understated. Why? 👇🏻 1. This data doesn’t include SPVs. Like them or not, co-invest or single
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👇🏻 …And yet the focus of so many VC LPs continues to be “loss ratio” — perhaps should power law ratio
Alfred Lin on Sequoia’s best fund (Venture 12: Airbnb, Unity, Dropbox): - 3 companies returned $1B+ each - 10 companies returned $100M+ - ~50% written off to zero VC isn’t about being right most of the time. It’s about owning enough of a few true outliers to make the whole
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This week on Clouded Judgement: Systems of Record are Evolving - Median software multiple: 4.9x - High Growth software median: 14.5x - Mid Growth software median: 7.5x - Low Growth software median: 3.7x - 10Y: 4.2% Article in next post 👇
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Massive momentum from small business to large enterprise. Let’s celebrate America’s 250 by making every child a shareholder in the future of America! And yes, Altimeter is in! Reply Tweet if your company is in! 🇺🇸🇺🇸@InvestAmerica24
I am asking all businesses to consider pledging support for @InvestAmerica24 to help children build savings for their future.
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GPT 5.2 Pro achieved SOTA ARC-AGI at 390x reduction in cost ($11.64 / task) Need more proof that pre-trianing, post-training are multiplicatively scaling on each other? o3 was based on a pre-train in 2022... listen to @GavinSBaker recent pod, he lays out what you need to know
A year ago, we verified a preview of an unreleased version of @OpenAI o3 (High) that scored 88% on ARC-AGI-1 at est. $4.5k/task Today, we’ve verified a new GPT-5.2 Pro (X-High) SOTA score of 90.5% at $11.64/task This represents a ~390X efficiency improvement in one year
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