Gavin Baker
@GavinSBaker
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Managing Partner & CIO, @atreidesmgmt. Husband, @l3eckyy. No investment advice, views my own. https://t.co/pFe9KmNu9U
Boston, MA
Joined July 2011
The benefits of trade broadly benefitted the American population via lower prices while really hurting small segments of America due to plants being closed. i.e. Americans really like it that flat screen TVs are crazy cheap. The 2024 election showed that Americans also do not.
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Given the massive - and increasing - importance of test-time compute and post-training RL shown by Grok-4’s absolute dominance, being the low cost producer of tokens is more important than ever. As an aside, this is the first time in my career as a tech investor that being the
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Likely to see more of these stories:.
Microsoft’s AI Chip Effort Falls Behind. Microsoft’s next internally developed AI chip is facing a delay, putting it further behind efforts to catch up to Nvidia’s latest chips. Read more from @waynema and @QianerLiu 👇 .
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If the Microsoft ASIC underperforms the 2024 era Blackwell when it is released in 2026, imagine how it will fare vs. Rubin.
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Medium confidence hypothesis: in 3 years Trainium, TPU and Dojo will be the only ASICs left standing.
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Per @zerohedge, the latest data shows the largest monthly reduction in Social Security payments in history. Is this correct? There is some seasonality in the data - mostly Decembers - but not enough to explain this drop. There are other moving pieces with the timing of
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Insane that Apollo posted this. Their “average annualized return” metric shows that Private Equity and Private Credit are outperforming the S&P 500 over 1, 5 and 10 year periods. Except that “average, annualized return” is a meaningless, made up metric that has nothing to do
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Lepton and opening up NVLink are both really smart. Especially NVLink. Opening it up makes life so much harder for the dominant ASIC providers. Scale-up networking >> software >> compute. i.e. NVLink more important than CUDA imo.
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The best of “Greg”.
The Veo-generated vlog series of Greg The Stormtrooper is the best Star Wars content in ages:. ▫️pissed about going to Endor (“orders just came in from Vader’s bitch ass”).▫️crash lands on Hoth (builds snowman while shot at).▫️drinks “something questionable” at a Tatoonie bar
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The Stormtrooper shorts are by far the best AI generated cinematic content thus far. Arguably the best Star Wars content since the “Empire Strikes Back” in a narrow victory over Rogue One and Andor. Genuinely funny and look forward to watching the new ones every morning.
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The fact that humanoid robots can learn from watching videos of humans performing tasks seems like it will decisively settle the humanoid vs. task specialized robot debate for now.
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AI coding agents like Cursor might add more NNARR than the entire SaaS industry (ex MSFT) in the second quarter. Should also say that I enjoyed the @FundaBottom write-up of Google which sparked this thought.
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Super interesting. Anecdotally, most VCs are seeing companies grow faster with fewer employees over the last 2 years but this is the first concrete data I have seen.
It's hard to definitively attribute the causality, but it seems that AI is starting to influence @stripe's macro figures: payment volume from customers that signed up for Stripe in 2025 is tracking way ahead of prior years. (And ahead of even 2020, when the lockdowns triggered a.
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Important risks to monitor:. Deliquencies trending up more so than in 2022 and the mildest of resurgences in inflation. The latter is especially important given how bonds are trading.
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Just learned that some of my colleagues are very effectively using Grok and Gemini to “vibe-code” data functions. Kinda cool.
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What are the odds that the “Clarks” can become a “Jordan” like franchise?. I think non-zero and suspect NBA players would wear them. Everyone seems to think new CEO is exceptional, just strange that they haven’t leaned into marketing her more.
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🙏 on behalf of the @Atreidesmgmt analyst Foxy, who is a star. Well deserved.
got a bunch of responses for semis, so will share. winner (very slight edge) is Atreides with Altimeter coming in close second. other notables (in order): Benchstone, Coatue, Davidson Kempner, Ardmore Road, Point 72 and Millennium.
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Interesting thread.
I'm Singaporean. Singapore is known for being high-tech. But our tech is NOTHING compared to what I saw on a 15-day China trip in March. From DeepSeek Sex Dolls to Electric Airships to Drones for traffic incidents. Here's 9 shocking tech in China now:
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Amazon is now denying this, but still think highly likely that someone else will lead the way and others will follow.
New — Amazon Spox now saying this was never under consideration for the main Amazon website. Says Amazon Haul has considered listing import price duties on certain products.
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