AllThingsVentured
@AllVentured
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Bold and unfiltered takes on trade, shipping, and commodities. Not investment advice.
Denver CO
Joined August 2019
Twitter is my notepad to collect my thoughts into defensible bites for feedback, collaboration, and future reference. This is NOT investment advice - although I may "talk my book" I really prefer if tourists stay out of my positions. If you do your own dd welcome to the club.
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Not sustainable. https://t.co/gFK5TN7Gjw
Released this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ labor share of income for Q3 2025 is the lowest on record.
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Layoffs create these productivity spikes as corporates make the same amount of stuff with fewer workers. Mass hiring causes huge drops in productivity (see post covid) as new employees initially don't contribute much.
In a genuine productivity boom, we ought to be seeing rising growth in real compensation. Over the last two quarters, the opposite is true. Real compensation per hour has declined slightly over the last two quarters while productivity has surged 4.5% SAAR.
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$GM perfectly tagging upper trendline on the log chart today. The capacity rationalization to prop up profits has been amazing to watch. Hard to imagine this doesn't mean revert a bit. Optimism seems a bit high considering Chinese cars will dominate the globe going forward.
🚨 JUST IN: $GM to report record $7.1 Billion charge, mostly from its failed EV strategy, as it looks to make 'structural changes' to more profitably produce electric vehicles.
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This rebalance has been all over my feed for a month. What if for every dollar of rebalance there are $3 of hedge fund shorts trying to front run this? Hard to think the rebalance surprises the market in the way everyone suggests at this point.
Reminder: BCOM and S&P GSCI rebalance starts today Gold and silver enter the second week of January facing a familiar but often misunderstood near-term headwind: the annual rebalancing of major commodity indices such as the S&P GSCI and the Bloomberg Commodity Index. This
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Trump is about to get congressional approval to put 500% tariffs on a handful of the worlds largest economies in an effort to shut off Russian oil sales and oil has barely moved off of 5 year lows with $SPX within a hair of all time highs. Sure, decent chance this leads to peace
⚡️ BREAKING: Trump gives the green light to a bipartisan sanctions bill targeting Russia. The bill could slap up to 500% tariffs on imports from countries like China, India, and Brazil that buy Russian oil, gas, and uranium.
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If you took the time to read to the bottom of my below post, I predicted that govt would come for corporate profits because there will be other way to pay for the things needed to run a country. Its likely to come in coercion at first like the below before outright confiscation
AI is very real. A productivity explosion is coming via vibe coded everything. Labor savings will be massive. But when the vast majority of S&P500 profits in some way tie back to consumer spending will the productivity savings from AI actually accrue back to the hyperscalers
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Also being reported today is Sinokor going on a massive buying spree and paying way above market for both ships and charters. Smart money sees the writing on the walls. Mad dash to find market clearing rates MUCH higher.
Tankers: Rumours of Sinokor going on a buying spree for 6x Japan/Korean-built VLCCs. Two of the 2010 vessels are scrubber fitted and bought at the firm price of USD 70m each - which compares 12% above our generic quotes. The remaining vessels have reportedly gone for USD 68m, a
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$FRO $DHT $ECO $NAT $TNK $TK $TEN $INSW $CMBT $NMM
Why are #tanker stocks ripping today? Changing Venezuela crude flows are a massive tailwind to rates. Barrels moving from dark fleet to compliant fleet is adding huge volumes into an already tight supply of compliant ships not to mention that these are the most ship-day
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Why are #tanker stocks ripping today? Changing Venezuela crude flows are a massive tailwind to rates. Barrels moving from dark fleet to compliant fleet is adding huge volumes into an already tight supply of compliant ships not to mention that these are the most ship-day
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Ugly report that reverses any illusion of a recovery in Sept/Oct. Trend still appears to be down into a flat Beveridge curve. Quits up slightly needs to be taken in the context of FORCED return to office = shadow layoffs as people holding multiple jobs are forced to shed down
Nov #JOLTS report sees job openings (SA) more than reverse Sept/Oct's +443k two month jump to the highest since May, with a -221k revision to the Oct figure along with a -303k drop in December, the largest drop since June (and second largest of 2025), taking the index to 7.416mn,
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Really nice thread on solar although the commentary on falling energy cost feedback loop should be viewed as part of China's whole energy system not isolated to Polysilicon production which is grid connected and consumes coal nuclear and other renewables.
1/ ABOUT THE USE OF SILVER vs COPPER IN SOLAR PANEL, LONGi SWITCHING, AND THE DIFFERENTIAL PROCESS OF SOLAR PANEL COSTS (falling PV energy to produce PV in a feedback loop) What would be the impact for Solar Panels manufacturers of switching from Silver to base metals?
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$LODE is an interesting very convex bet on higher silver prices.
Very pleased to report that our non-employee directors elected to take all of their previously earned and accrued (but not as of yet paid) compensation over the past three+ years in $LODE common shares and also agreed to increase their ownership guidelines for owning and holding
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For all the OER critics that rightfully point out that rents are actually flat to falling, the reality for the top part of the K that accounts for all of the spending (the 40% of US households that have a mortgage) is the Yellow line that will trend up and crimp discretionary
The Monthly Payment That Broke the Housing Market What you’re looking at here is three very different realities living in the same market. The green line is what it costs today to buy a home with current prices and rates. The blue line is what it costs to rent. The orange line
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But you know all of that infinite demand… they can’t even find a way to give away more the most expensive freebie of all time.
🚨 ChatGPT traffic has fallen -22% in the last 6 weeks, since the Gemini 3 launch. 7-day avg visitors has gone from ~203M to ~158M. Might be the holiday slump, but Gemini, their biggest consumer competitor, has remained flat and is now ~40% of ChatGPT. Source: SimilarWeb.
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Totally normal bluechips trading like penny stocks or $GME
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Could melt up a few more percent before the crash like Jul 24. https://t.co/AeOJIv4XFu
Maybe they'll push the 1-month implied correlation index to 0...
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Everything stretched. So many top signals. https://t.co/ZEbY7NQOGJ
While Asset Managers are almost record-Short $VIX... ...Small Speculators are extremely long Small Caps (Russell 2000)
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Want to fix Venezuela? Send in Bukele on a tech CEO salary with a few billion for him to build a military. Won't be pretty but it will be FAR better than any other possible outcome.
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AI is very real. A productivity explosion is coming via vibe coded everything. Labor savings will be massive. But when the vast majority of S&P500 profits in some way tie back to consumer spending will the productivity savings from AI actually accrue back to the hyperscalers
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