Subu Trade
@SubuTrade
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Trading large trends/key themes and smaller opportunities in between.
Analysis & Trades:
Joined November 2024
The S&P 500 has fallen below its 20 day moving average for the first time in over 60 days. Next few days aren't good ⬇️
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Large Speculators / Hedge Funds are the most net short S&P 500 futures in over a year.
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Asset Managers are RECORD short the U.S. Dollar, according to the COT Report
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Such strong momentum was consistently bullish for $SPX 3 months later:
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The S&P has been above its 20 day moving average for 59 straight days. Pullback next week? ⬇️
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Large Speculators / Hedge Funds are the most net short Russell 2000 futures since the 2022 bear market bottom. Almost max short small caps!!
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Sentiment update:. NASDAQ's Daily Sentiment Index is extremely high. Pullback soon?
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The S&P has been above its 20 day moving average for 52 straight days. Pullback soon?
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The S&P 500 has formed a "Golden Cross" (50 day moving average crossed above 200 day moving average). Here's every Golden Cross in the past 50 years, and what the S&P did next:
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The S&P 500 just made a new all-time high!. It was down -18% less than 3 months ago. Here's what the S&P did after similar V-shaped rallies ⬇️
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The NASDAQ 100 is at an all-time high. It was down -20% less than 3 months ago. These sharp rallies tend to be bullish.
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Asset Managers are almost RECORD short the U.S. Dollar, according to the COT Report. Is this bullish for the Dollar?
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Sentiment is recovering:. AAII Bulls-Bears just topped +3% for the first time in 15 weeks. This is a bullish signal for the S&P 500 over the next 3-12 months
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The NASDAQ 100 is just -2% below its all-time high. It was down -20% just 2 months ago. Historically, sharp rallies like this were bullish ⬇️
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In all seriousness, here's what $TSLA did over the next few days
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At today's low, Tesla was down -17% intraday. Historically, $TSLA has gained an average of +323% a year after similar 1 day drops. Don't bet the farm on this 🤣
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If you're wondering, here's what $SPX did over the next few days
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The S&P 500 is up more than +18% in the past 7 weeks (35 trading days). Here’s what the S&P did after similar rallies ⬇️
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The S&P 500 is now -3% below its all-time high. Last month it was -18% below its all-time high. These quick recoveries tend to see stocks rally more over the next 3-12 months. Momentum is strong.
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