The Volatility of Volatility is falling. $VVIX (the “VIX of VIX”) fell below 85 for the first time in 3+ months. In the past, the S&P was higher every time 2 months later, with an average gain of +5.6%.

Silver is up 8 months in a row. This ties the record from February 1980.

Here's how every Sector of the S&P 500 performed during the Santa Claus Rally: •Materials $XLB: up 72% of years, +1.5% •Financials $XLF: up 72% of years, +1% •Energy $XLE: up 69% of years, +1.1% •Consumer Discretionary $XLY: up 67% of years, +1.3% •Real Estate $XLRE: up 67%

The "official" Santa Claus Rally begins on December 24. It covers the last 5 trading days of December + the first 2 of January. $SPX was up 77% of the time. The last 2 were negative, but there has never been a third straight down Santa Claus Rally.

Did the Santa Claus Rally start today? December seasonality turns quite bullish, right around now. Chart from @RyanDetrick

Maximum Drawdowns ⬇️

Sentiment is improving: For the first time in over a year, AAII Bulls exceeded 44% for 3 straight weeks. This tends to happen 6-12 months after a market crash. $SPX was up 6 months later every time, average gain of +10%

Update: Equity Put/Call Ratio is now at 0.75 Here's what $SPX did next after similar Put/Call Ratio spikes ⬇️

$SPX fell more than -1% today, but more than 50% of S&P stocks rallied! This rare breadth divergence has only appeared in 2 tech-led bull markets: 1999-2000 & 2024-2025

Yes, this contradicts the bullish stats that I shared previously. Good analysis requires that we look at ALL the data, keeping a balanced view and a weight-of-the-evidence approach. Don't cherry pick data & charts that fit your existing bias.

Margin Debt increased +42% in the past 7 months. Investors went all-in. This only happened 5 times before, and the S&P 500 was lower 1 year later every time. The last 2 times? February 2000 & May 2007

Equity Put/Call Ratio jumped to 0.74 today. In the last 30 times this happened, $SPX was higher 87% of the time 4 days later

Put Volume jumped: Friday saw $SPX Put Volume at 2.932 million This only happened 7 other times before. $SPX was higher each time 3-5 days later.

Was Friday the start of a bigger pullback for stocks? $VIX Term Structure fell below 0.79 on Thursday. Volatility was too low. This only happened 3 other times in the past 4 years. Each case was followed by at least a -10% correction for $SPX

Interestingly, this was less bullish for the NASDAQ itself. Suggests tech may lag, with non-tech leading the next leg higher. Sector rotation?

The NASDAQ Composite has been above its 100 day moving average for 150 straight days. Historically, $SPX was higher 12/13 times 6 months later, and 100% of the time 1 year later • Average gain: +14.8% • Average max drawdown: −3.6%

$TLT is down 5 years in a row. Meanwhile, $TLT Short Interest just made a new Record High.

Maximum drawdowns for the S&P 500:

$VIX has dropped below 15 for the first time in over 2 months, signaling a return to more normal volatility. Past cases saw $SPX higher 13 out of 14 times after 3 weeks & higher every time 1 year later.