Campbell
@abcampbell
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there will be typos
the world of dollars
Joined August 2011
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@every_daydad
Remember when the point of a watch was to keep time?
I have worn the same Casio for a decade.
Never had to take it off in the shower or when camping.
Only get a new one when the $5 strap breaks.
Imagine that in an
@Apple
product?
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This is the worst drawdown in US government bonds since the War of Independence.
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World is about to find out why ex-pat Americans pay income taxes to the homeland.
BREAKING:
American Special Operations Forces trained in hostage situations have arrived in Israel.
A Pentagon official says the U.S. doesn't rule out performing operations to liberate kidnapped Americans now held in Gaza
🇺🇸🇮🇱
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For those keeping score, this is what the debt on ~$2Tr of Chinese property co assets is trading at now, based off what's observable...
Contagion in full effect, though stable last couple wks
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@profoundlyyyy
I, for one, am excited to see what his “throw life extension spaghetti against the wall” methodology will yield.
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@RoKhanna
The difference is reducing the purchasing power of the dollar by 2/3rds over 100yrs
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If Germany won’t defend Europe, looks like Poland is ready to step up.
BREAKING:
Poland has announced it has sent a letter of request to the US to buy 96 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters in their most modernized GUARDIAN variant.
Poland initially planned to buy 32 unspecified helis.
Such a purchase would create the world’s 2-largest Apache fleet.
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The gap between the yield on US 10yr cash bonds vs futures is at the highs.
Meaning cash bonds have depreciated disproportionately relative to futures in this sell off.
The opposite dynamic from 2020(!)
Implying “real money” sellers not hedge funds / speculators.
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15 years into crypto and we’re pretending people are going to pay $40 transaction fee to by a $4 coffee.
Crypto can be cool, or crypto can be money.
It cannot be both.
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The "Arsenal of Democracy" is only possible when you make 50% of the world's steel...
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Next time someone lectures you about China’s “clean energy transition”…
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At SpaceX, no one can hear you scream for HR
Elon Musk had twins last year with Shivon Zilis, one of his top executives. She has recently been floated as one of the people Musk could tap to run Twitter after his acquisition. Big scoop from
@mjnblack
:
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Been trying to tell y’all…
He who controls the spice (chips) controls the 21st century.
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24 views for 2024
1. Evergrande & Co will not be resolved, the pain will spread to the Chinese "trusts" and banks.
2. Gold in China will outperform.
3. China will catch up to the US in semis, space, and LLMs.
4. China lockdown on tech, military and Taiwan will tighten.
5.…
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@robert_spalding
They are saying that extra-territorial assassinations of military/terrorist targets has been western policy for a while now.
Rather than ignore the argument, maybe we should have a global conversation about the rules around extradition.
Problem is our govts are NOT aligned.
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@60Minutes
Never forget, the run on FTX was started by Alameda.
That’s what makes it fraud
#michaelLewis
Just in case there are any EAs out there that are still confused
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Chinese real estate sales are - 40%
1/3 of the sector is insolvent
The bubble has popped.
& yet the banking system has booked ~0 losses
What if the emperor has no clothes?
"Sales of China’s top 100 real estate developers sank over 40 percent last year from 2021 as the property market faced great downward pressure."
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The average Chinese dollar property bond now trades in line with bankrupt Evergrande.
The system is insolvent.
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SF is so back
JUST IN - Czech TV crew robbed at gunpoint while covering APEC summit in San Francisco — KTVU FOX 2
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@tsarnick
Looks like they ask their model to make 4 different images, as opposed to asking the same model 4x.
Here's my DALLE output.
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@fancy_1982
@timotheeology
Imagine thinking grades mattered this much.
Anyone got data showing military grades vs outcomes?
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@redoatz
Makes sense.
If her job is capturing alpha, then her personal portfolio should be for levered beta.
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@micsolana
You can have a president who tweets every 30 seconds, or one that’s on vacation through the fall of Kabul
There is no in between in America anymore
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@varunramg
@KyleKashuv
“You don’t want kids?
Wow, I didn’t know that.
You’re telling me now for the first time”
WATCH: Trump hears from a reporter that Justice Ginsburg has died.
"She just died? Wow. I didn't know that, you're telling me now for the first time."
"She led an amazing life. What else can you say? She was an amazing woman...I'm sad to hear that."
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@michaelxpettis
The regional split here has been clear for a while.
You have a prosperous, rapidly urbanizing coastal region focused on exports, who’s banking system subsidized the less developed, inner hinterlands.
Heres our rankings from 2018 (!)
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@Noahpinion
@HarksenNiels
Note, this is explicitly the Chinese strategy here.
“Extend and pretend.”
Problem is Japan had a couple decades of open capital account when their bubble popped.
Meaning money came HOME rather than fleeing out the back door, which is happening in China.
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E/acc: “What about China?”
Doomers: “I’m confident when they read LessWrong & see the beautiful logic of self preservation they will submit to voluntary compute caps”
China: [builds 140 LLMs]
China is dealing with its very own AI bubble in LLMs
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@loganbartlett
Where else would they learn the holy trinity of finance…
1. Extract data from .pdf file
2. Do data, make charts in .xlsx
3. Plop in .ppt/.doc + send
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@johnkonrad
So goes steel goes shipbuilding…
The "Arsenal of Democracy" is only possible when you make 50% of the world's steel...
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@historyinmemes
Caffeinated spider looks like he’s designing a financial model in excel at 2am.
Max efficiency covering area, but with big gaps & held together by couple key strands.
No art, just angles.
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Tax cars by weight and this will change.
I’ve spent much of this year learning about car bloat, the process through which smaller vehicles are being replaced by increasingly massive SUVs and trucks.
What I’ve learned: Huge cars are terrible for society, often in ways that are hidden.
A summary 🧵
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Why Can't China Bail Out It's Banks?
You probably haven’t heard of Shengjing Bank ()
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@emollick
Also a good example of how much office work is adding excess verbal packaging around simple concepts.
Seems like a lot of AI is going to be 'turn this into professional jargon' and 'distill this from professional jargon.'
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Oil is up 40% in 3m
Higher energy prices are about to *mechanistically* flow through to higher inflation.
Putting pressure on Powell to remain tight / go to 7%.
At this point every day oil goes up, you should be more bearish on bonds, and there are bonds in the stocks...
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@aphysicist
That was a radically different world.
One where the US was making the majority of the world’s steel.
The "Arsenal of Democracy" is only possible when you make 50% of the world's steel...
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@quantian1
*cough* Turing
*cough* Gödel
But when we repackage it under our own name it sounds special.
Fuck it, imma start calling it Campbell’s lemma or some shit.
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@_ali_taylor
we should let people buy seats for dogs on airplanes
we should also charge more for screaming babies
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Even Nick Bostrom agrees with me…
“Uh guys, China isn’t going to pause AI, and if we do, we get stuck with their surveillance state”.
FINALLY: AI xrisker Nick Bostrom regrets focusing on AI risk, now worries that our fearful herd mentality will drive us to crush AI and destroy our future potential. (from an UnHerd podcast today)
Nick Bostrom: It would be tragic if we never developed advanced artificial…
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Reminder, real estate in China is about as expensive as in the US, at about 1/3rd of the income
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Maybe long volatility *can* pay...
"Universa is a private hedge fund,...but according to figures audited by EY, it posted a 105% life-to-date average annual return on invested capital between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2019."
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@mattyglesias
They should also remove players during overtime until one team wins.
No more ties.
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Friendly reminder:
👇 is what colonialism looks like.
If you really want to fight western imperialism, a nice place to start would be breaking up Russia.
Also shows why a 🇨🇳 🤝 🇷🇺 axis will never be 💯 stable.
Eventually China is going to ask for Vladivostok back…
Russia is the last European colonial empire that remains largely intact. It was a relatively small polity whose enormous territorial expansion started for real only in the 16th c. This time frame largely overlaps with the establishment of the first European overseas empires
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Downside of the Swensen's Yale endowment model is it's overweight illiquid, long duration assets like PE/VC.
What's the impact of 300bps of tightening on a portfolio with 30yr duration?
What happens to 'dry powder' when LPs can't make capital calls?
🚨NEW🚨
On the
@bankofengland
intervention:
Am told the BoE were responding to a “run dynamic” on pension funds - a wholesale equivalent of the run which destroyed Northern Rock.
Had they not intervened, there would have been mass insolvencies of pension funds by THIS AFTERNOON.
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Reminder,
#Tether
still has ~$12bn of:
"Secured Loans, Corporate Bonds, Funds, Precious Metals and Other"
Against $150mm of equity.
Meaning, if they take a 2.1% loss on their non-cash/non CP assets, they are insolvent and need recapitalization (read:bailout).
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During Covid they canceled student debt I had already paid back.
Yesterday they voided the non-compete that changed my life…in 2015.
Today they double the cap gains on the startup I founded instead.
Mortgage rates are 7%
Being a millennial is awesome.
Biden is calling for a 44.6% capital gains rate. Please vote this old loser and his evil cabal of wormtongues out of power.
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@dailydirtnap
markets / auctions are great at getting people to tell (their version of) the truth
a game theorist might call it the 'revelation principle'
aka games where players are directly paid to reveal their private information (their truth)
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@ctjlewis
I used to have a similar framework but based around status hierarchies:
NYC - proximity to wealth
DC - proximity to power
LA - proximity to fame
SF - proximity to tech
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@growing_daniel
That’s because more than any other big tech co, Microsoft is in the business of spotting threats and neutralizing them.
os - windows - spreadsheets - office - browser - gaming - mobile (miss) - cloud - llm
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@leadlagreport
Put another way, we haven’t had pain like this in the US bond market since the 70s.
Usually when we get pain in stocks, the Fed eases and bonds rally.
So what happens when the reason stocks are selling off is…the carnage in the bond market?
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In 2022, Citadel made $35bn across trading and market making.
The fund only has $55bn of AUM…
😳
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The hikes will continue until the pain is unbearable.
Fed is projecting higher interest rates now than it was in December. Hawkish dot plot
Median 2023 stays at 5.1% (mean slightly higher)
Median 2024 rises to 4.3% from 4.1%
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@BobEUnlimited
@HedgeyeDJ
The death spiral is irreversible once the derivatives exposures start getting "novated".
Aka, other banks start moving profitable derivs away from your bank, implicitly forcing the new counterparty to accept credit risk on your account.
This is what led JPM to kill Lehman.
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Just in case there are any EAs out there that are still confused
Government's allegations of Alameda P&L. They were coming back fr though.
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@flyosity
This data was a trap to see who would overfit a model of their data to the stock returns vs the actual sales…
@macrocephalopod
I have played with this data and not only does it not predict earnings it doesn’t even do a good job of predicting sales!
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$280bn is not enough, and deploying it to buy stocks and not the root cause (bailout/recap) implies we are just getting started.
Wait for the relief rally to lose legs and then time to press the shorts…
Breaking News: Bloomberg has learned Chinese officials are considering a market rescue package in the order of $280B. Markets responding nicely initially.
Details to follow. Stand by.
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Guys I’m not sure China is gonna “pause” AI…
The next pet project for China's Kestrel Defense Blood-Wing.
Robot fire-support dog, with a dedicated mount for the QJB-201 light machine gun, that comes with 200 rounds of ammo.
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Chinese stocks are limit down in Shanghai but the big 4 banks are all 📈📈📈
Here’s ICBC, BoC, CCB and ABC…looks like we know which shares the national team is buying!
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@michaeljburry
JP Morgan railroaded the other banks into recapitalizing the system and doing a bad bank.
Yellen guaranteed deposits.
These are not the same.
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Turns out “small banks” (under $150bn) create around 1/3 of the credit in the US.
Probably nothing.
#deleveraging
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Coinbase is laying off 1,100 employees, but at least they get to choose a severance package paid in either Bitcoin, Dutch tulips, or post WW1 German Reichsmarks
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Country Garden likely defaults tomorrow.
More than a third (!) of Chinese property developers (weighted by sales) have already defaulted.
$115 out of $175 in offshore dollar bonds defaulted.
Yet not a single additional Non-Performing Loan in China.
Are you paying attention?
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Seven years ago I left the world’s biggest hedge fund
to build a tool for data
that could be used by the world’s biggest hedge fund.
The "smartest database in the world."
At the beginning, she was just a random thought:
“What if your database was as smart as Her?”
(haha)
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