Campbell
@abcampbell
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macro stoic
the world of dollars
Joined August 2011
just to review willing to negotiate: 🇲🇽 🇮🇳 🇻🇳 🇰🇭 🇹🇼 🇮🇱 🇬🇧 🇰🇷 🇦🇺 🇳🇿 🇧🇷 🇨🇦 already retaliated: 🇨🇳 can you see it yet? in game theory we call this a “separating equilibrium”
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This is why we don’t let pure engineers trade btw
Finance people dismiss this as random walk. AI people find it fascinating. Both are right - as we figure out optimising automation vs augmentation, experiments like @the_nof1 matter. BTW DeepSeek 120%+ & Qwen 100% in 9 days. Grok & Claude now both profitable. Gemini & ChatGPT
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Our AI-powered platform helps you deliver digital innovation faster and with less risk by providing a fundamentally better approach to test automation.
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folks there are *bonds* on the *stocks*
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Maybe now that Hinton discovered the positive-sum dynamics I’ve been ranting about for years the doomers will unblock me. Naw..
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New today: Micah Rasmussen on the early vote. Shlomo Schorr on the Orthodox bloc that could swing the election. The article political insiders nationwide are reading to gauge the New Jersey governor’s race. Link in bio.
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hey - they’re doing technical analysis on prediction markets
proficient use of technical analysis. take this bullish soft noodle curve for example, most would look at this chart and think; 4% is a bit of a gamble isn’t it? wrong. most fail to see three bullish red sloping tree trunks all ~1 hour apart
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I’ve been saying this Subs too just park them and vrrrrrr
The USS Nimitz is on its last cruise. It is scheduled to be decommissioned and likely scrapped soon. It already has an installed and proven nuclear power plant. What if instead…
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Japan can help America become independent in rare earths https://t.co/9hM7WhwRkb
finance.yahoo.com
US-based rare earth company REalloys Inc. and Japan’s JOGMEC have formed a strategic partnership to fortify non-Chinese critical mineral supply chains, focusing on rare earth development, technology...
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gold in China
BREAKING: Shanghai gold warrants have now risen to a record 86,565 kilograms this week. A gold warrant on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is a digital certificate that proves ownership of physical gold stored in an exchange-approved warehouse. This marks a 28-FOLD increase since
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👀
Fresh from the concluded 4th plenum of the CPC: The newly released 15th 5 year plan (2026 to 2030), has placed great emphasis on the national reunification and the liberation of Taiwan.
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reminder, I was banned from LessWrong for broaching this topic
China is exporting Huawei chips + DeepSeek models to the Global South. If we don’t make it just as easy to export the American AI stack, we will forfeit this technology race in large parts of the world. https://t.co/r7u2WT6WvC
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China entering year 5 of the real estate downcycle. Interestingly, if this data from an MS report is right, housing starts and prices are tracking the US real estate downturn. The fact that the line matches timing on the way down means nothing in terms of what comes ahead. But
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“The valley is built on Qwen” congratulations to @ESYudkowsky, @MIRIBerkeley and @PauseAI on their terrific achievement!
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funny how Chinese nationalists never want to count nominal GDP that is unless a) they are talking up 5.5% nominal growth or b) they are counting up investment numbers
Functional size of PRC economy is ~2x US economy.
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and I will be buying calls
There will be a panic flush, probably my guess is to around 3600-3800
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in case you are confused by why gold and silver open the trading day in America up everyday the buyers are on the other side of the world #goldinchina
The BIS should really do a better job to cover its trail on these massive silver and gold slams during European hours - I believe it’s now clear where the line in the sand is after which things start falling apart
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Nope. US needs to kill this or we’re a failed power.
🚨China is now eyeing a lease of one of the Chagos Islands, Peros Banhos from Mauritius - beside Diego Garcia. The 'deal' hasn't been ratified by the UK Parliament, yet Mauritius, India, and China plan to carve them up. This deal must be scrapped - once and for all.
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If you call down 50% = “ruin” the numbers are even more stark 7 sharpe to ensure you are 95% likely not to be down 50% vs the start over 1y If you measure ruin as down 50% peak to trough it’s 17 sharpe! Last time I checked perfect foreknowledge on spx (traded daily) is 12…
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