[New Post] Unbundling the Game Engine: The Rise of Next Gen 3D Creation Engines
Now is the time for a new 3D Creation Engine (aka game engine) to revolutionize the way we create games, film, virtual worlds & simulations
More from
@Tocelot
& me:👇 & 🧵
Just saw
#AvatarTheWayOfWater
! A visual spectacle and technical marvel
Through working on
@unity
's acquisition of
@wetadigital
, I got to see the tools in action responsible for bringing this story to life and meet the PhD's behind them
How Pandora made it to our screens👇
I worked on an early, very different iteration of the
@unity
pricing changes ~1 yr ago
My thoughts:
1. Unity strategically had no choice but to make changes
2. Devs are upset, but it isn't quite as bad as it seems
3. Unity's comms & implementation wasn't great
More below 👇
🤔Do you remember:
- ?
- ?
- ?
The Golden Age of browser games is long gone, but we're soon to see a renaissance
Here's why the next Fortnite will be played from a browser 👇
The Generative AI revolution hitting Games isn’t a distant fantasy, it’s already HERE
We heard from 243 game studios - large and small - the results were astonishing 🤯
87% of studios are CURRENTLY using AI
Here are the big findings 👇
The Generative AI Revolution In Games Forges Ahead
@jacksoslow
and I alongside
@a16zgames
have met 100+ companies transforming game development pipelines and reimagining the limits for virtual worlds
🚨We present our updated market map below:
This is crazy:
New Vision Pro app releases have plummeted...
We always talk about the "chicken or the egg" problem for XR apps & hardware...
...it does not appear that the AVP v1 (aka dev kit) has ignited the XR app ecosystem as we might have hoped
Big-budget games & movies from God of War to Avatar are brought to life by armies of 3D artists
Today: these artists are technical wizards yielding complex tools🧙♀️
Future: creativity will be unleashed at the speed of thought👩🎨
How Generative AI will transform 3D artist job's👇
I’m pumped to announce that I’ve joined
@a16z
as an investor on the Games team! We’re at the start of a revolution in what is possible with games and interactive experiences, and I can’t wait to see where we go…👇
Building Github for 3D (3D Digital Asset Management/DAM) is one of the largest unsolved opportunities in games/3D infrastructure
- Games now require more assets than ever for expanding levels/worlds
- We're about to see an explosion in # of assets from AI 3D generation
- Content
Most Popular OSS Game/3D Engines & Frameworks (by Github Stars)
Top 5:
1.
@threejs
2.
@godotengine
3.
@phaser_
4.
@BevyEngine
5. libGDX
OSS engines have gained a ton of steam over the last 5 years, but it's unlikely they will unseat Unity or Unreal
A few trends and thoughts 👇
2. Devs feel betrayed and a violation of trust
The decision came out of left field for most devs and goes into enforcement in <4 months. They feel trapped & fear more changes
IMO, the change should've been announced ~12 months ahead to give devs time to plan for their business
What could Unity have done differently for its community?
1. Unity should've offered developers an option for "Per Install" OR "Rev Royalty"
While in 95%+ of cases "Per Install" is cheaper than "Royalty," the model still creates heartburn for developers and edge cases do exist
The inaugural
@a16zGames
' AI Roundtable was a huge success 💪
Goal was to bring together top builders and thinkers in AI to help shine a light for gaming industry leaders
250+ founders, research and industry execs attended
A few highlights 👇
Unity has a small army of 3K+ engineers working on it
~80% (est.) of Unity users don't pay anything for the service. Unity's ads business (highly profitable) funds the engine business
The engine business is not profitable standalone
It's not sustainable
GAMES ARE EATING THE WORLD
Apps are moving from:
2D ->3D
Linear ->Interactive
1P ->Multiplayer
Static ->Personalized
Why we believe
@a16zgames
that building the "picks & shovels" to make this happen will yield multiple $10B+ businesses🧵👇
Join us:
Main point: while it's reasonable for Unity to charge 1-3% of rev (across seats + runtime fee), the new pricing model requires close studying & spreadsheets to figure out
It should've been:
- simpler
- better commumicated
Provided more:
- dev options
- time for implementation
TOP 10 GAME ENGINES BY DISCORD SIZE
Dev communities are the lifeblood (and health check) of a platform
Observations:
- Godot is now in the "big 4"
- Roblox Studio smaller than expected
-
@BevyEngine
on the rise
- Cool to see an AI Engine break the Top 10 🔍
@Rosebud_AI
More👇
4/ What tools/models are studios using?
Today, most studios are using horizontal, non-game specific tooling (ChatGPT/GPT-3/4; Midjourney; Copilot; etc)
In time, more vertical tools targeting game devs (3D asset generation; AI NPC platform; AI Playtesting) will penetrate studios
1. The macro enviornment has resulted in hiring freezes. For a seats license model like Unity's, this means poor revenue growth
2. GenAI will result in smaller teams building AAA quality games. Smaller/efficient teams = great for studios' profits but bad for Unity's seats model
The problem with the "Per Install" model is it's complicated and can introduce some downside risk
Where it breaks down are games with high
#s
of downloads but low ARPU:
A) Hypercasual games (i.e. Bridge Race)
B) Viral hits (i.e Among Us)
Unity's dilemma:
It's extremely expensive to build/support an engine used by millions of devs, across 25+ platforms (+ multiple device generations), producing 100K+ games/yr across various art/render styles
If you look a bit closer, a "Per Install" license is actually more developer friendly than a "Royalty" model
Below I show that across a number of game biz models, categories and lifecycles, "Per Install" pricing at Unity's terms generally equates to <1% of revenue
Unity's execution and poor communications made this situation worse for developers than it had to be
There was never going to be a situation where Unity devs were HAPPY to pay more
But devs need to be able to understand the changes and plan for them
Next year, text-based AI Companions will feel like relics
2023: saw the groundbreaking rise of AI Companions we text with
2024: those AI companions come to life through 3D Avatars we talk to, verbally
3. Apple privacy changes (ATT/IDFA) pushed game monetization towards IAP and away from in-game ads. Hurts Unity's ads business
4. Dev adoption of Unity cloud services like Unity Gaming Services, DevOps, etc likely hasn't been strong enough to make the engine biz profitable
Thoughts on pricing changes:
Objectively, its not crazy to think that a game dev making a living building games on an engine should have to pay some amount of $$ for the service
Midjourney CEO during office hours today:
"For the next 12 months it's about video, 3D, real time, and bringing them all together to non interactive world simulator. Then, we'll add the interaction layer to it."
Holodeck coming
Entertainment Marketing Playbook in 2024:
How to run a digital x interactive-first strategy
Good Films/TV/Music campaigns should tap:
- AR/VR
- Minecraft
- Roblox
- Fortnite
- AR location
See how
@UniversalPics
promo'd Kung Fu Panda 4 👇
1. AR/VR (+ one of the best AVP demos!)
Other platforms charge significantly more for arguably less value:
Apple/Google/Steam = 30%
UGC platforms = ~30% (sure, Apples to Oranges)
Even mobile attribution platforms (e.g. AppsFlyer, Adjust) demand more than engines, charging today on a "Per Install"/Conversion basis
14/ Under the hood, new facial animation tech was developed after performance capture to transfer to the digital avatar
More precise muscle simulation and skin deformation results in more lifelike and emotionally resonant characters on screen
The strategic question for Unity was always: assuming the low cost of the engine, what other developer services can we provide to developers to increase average revenue per user (ARPU)?
Of course, Epic/Unreal already charges a "Runtime License" in the form of a revenue royalty (5%)
Therefore, it's hard to argue it's unreasonable for Unity to transition its biz model in that direction
Especially considering the structural problems with its seats model today
Roblox's GenAI Coming Out Party
Glad to see they are taking a ~open platform approach:
"By enabling 3rd party AI creation services to plug directly into RBLX... we provide a mechanism for their unique creations to be directly offered to RBLX users"
If you missed it, Unity announced a massive change to its business model/customer pricing where in addition to the SaaS-based seat licensing they will also start charging a "Runtime Fee" based on per game install
3. Largely speaking, these changes affect only a small % of Unity's customer base
- Indie devs are mostly unaffected unless they are commercially successful
- I know Unity has already had 1:1 conversations ahead of public announcement with most highly impacted developers
In the short/medium term, Unity will likely see a healthy rise in ARPU. Perhaps Unity will extend the implementation timeline so devs have time to determine impact
Meanwhile, founders building next-gen game engines (cloud and/or AI-native) found some new wind in their sails 🏁
So what do I think will happen to Unity?
- The change mostly impacts AA/AAA studios. The amount of $ in question is not enough to push them to another engine (+alternatives are currently insufficient)
- A % of current Free users will leave the Unity ecosystem. Unity plans for it
Genie out of Google DeepMind is a bigger deal for video games than Sora 🤯
It's a foundation world model trained exclusively from unlabeled internet videos that can generate an endless variety of action-controllable virtual worlds (i.e. interactive video games) given image
This is incredible. By being unsupervised, Genie solves many of the problems inherent in AI video game generation.
Just read through the paper and here's a quick summary.
This paper introduces:
1. Latent Action Model (LAM) — with nothing other than video, the model infers
Also worth pointing out:
- These Runtime fees only come into affect IF the game passes $1M rev in the last 12 months (AND surpasses 1M cumm. installs); on par with Epic
- The Runtime fee + seat licenses combined still equates to way less than 5% of revenue (i.e. Epic's royalty)
Adobe making smart moves to try and turn AI into a sustaining vs disruptive technology for video creation
By integrating with OpenAI/Sora, Pika and Runway they are trying to commoditize the model layer and defend their position in professional workflows
I still believe though
By creating interfaces and workflows that unlock the power of
#GenerativeAI
, editors will be able to do things they’ve never been able to before - without leaving
#PremierePro
. Learn about the new features coming soon.
Scaled hypercasual games will be spending UA via UnityAds/LevelPlay and therefore the Runtime Fee likely doesn't apply (or is GREATLY negotiated down)
Among Us is really an edge case (once in a decade type viral hit!) and undoubtedly would be negotiated closely with Unity
📺 Top TV show? Gaming IP
🎥 Top Movie? Gaming IP
🎡 Top Theme Park? Gaming IP
🎮 Top Game? Harry Potter…which will well surpass the global box office total for Deathly Hallows II
To my friends at Unity-
Another sad day. Unity has always had such an amazing culture with committed employees who are mission driven. It's why I stayed for 5 years and many more have been there for 15+.
Now many will need to find new homes. But the mission can still be the
The best founders I work with are ruthless at assessing their own PMF. They're unafraid to make a harsh pivot fast
Weak founders convince themselves it's working when it's not. It's out of fear of failure or lack of confidence in themselves to find an idea that will work
Wrap/
Avatar 2 is an astonishingly beautiful technological breakthrough made possible by dozens of PhD's, 1,000+ dev-years of R&D and many thousands more artist-years to bring us back to Pandora, more vivid than any virtual world that has come before
How is your game studio using AI (or not)? 🎮
Game dev or artist? We want to hear from you!
Complete this 5 min survey for a chance to win:
(2) $500 gift cards💸
(1) a16z Games mechanical keyboard⌨️
Respondents will also receive aggregate poll results
🚨 New Market Map: AI/ML LiveOps Tools
AI/ML driven LiveOps will help margin squeezed game studios build much more profitable businesses 📈
Here's a mapping of the tools that will help game devs grow, monetize and retain their player base
It's been a rough few years for game
@speedrun
Demo Day @ GDC was a smashing success
37 of the top seed companies at the intersection of games x tech taking the stage to pitch a packed room of 500 investors 🚀
13/ Most of the assets for the film had to be remodeled/textured from scratch for 4K (vs 2K for Avatar 1)
Total data stored for the film was 18.5 petabytes (!!) vs 1 p.b. for the OG
Hopefully in the future GenAI will enable upressing of legacy assets to make them evergreen
Oculus Quest app topped the App Store charts post Christmas but was down 17% YoY. Still, total installs for the year up 35% vs 2021. Expect 2023 to be much higher with Quest 3 debut likely fall 2023
Over and over again, technology co's forged in games have transcended to conquer other industries: NVIDIA, Slack, Discord, Unity, etc
We're doubling down on SPEEDRUN - our accelerator for Games x Tech - committing $75M to fund the next best innovative ideas
Apply now! 👇
Fun update:
Today we're open for applications on SPEEDRUN 2024, the second run of our accelerator for Games x Tech, with $75M from the a16z games fund to find the next amazing pre-seed startups.
Applications are now open for SPEEDRUN 2024:
6/ Studios are eager for many AI use cases
Common use cases in studios today are concept art & story generation during pre-production. MJ and ChatGPT are already massive accelerators
For other use cases, models are still maturing (rapidly) but studios are eager to experiment
We've seen nearly as many Web3 SPEEDRUN applications as AI so far for this cohort...
SPEEDRUN provides the closest pulse of what technology the best builders are turning their attention to
Web3 must be back or something😂
'Forever Games' in one chart
Games 6+ years old are seeing double the playtime as just 2 years ago
Despite there being more new games than ever (and that will only increase with AI) players flock to the games (and really platforms) they know/love
In 10 years chart topping entertainment will be completely AI generated
Content could also be personalized 1:1 where we're all fed a new, never before seen movie/game based on our unique tastes
The question is... do people want this?
5 thoughts 👇
Spotted in Virginia airport:
3 senior “southern belles” dominating some couch co-op Wordle
Funny seeing people who would never consider themselves “gamers” nor digitally native (ya know, the single index finger iPhone user…) become gaming DAUs
Great games can expand the TAM
This means that browser games can run more efficiently and with higher quality graphics, providing a better gaming experience for players
Unity has announced support for WebGPU so devs can easily publish games to web
See the performance in this video between WebGL and WebGPU
12/ w/ the facial capture camera 5'' in front of their face, the actors can’t use scuba gear...so they had to hold their breath...
The actors trained with champion free-drivers to extend their submergence time. Kate Winslet took the 👑 with 7 min+
If you’re building a creative tooling co - whether you realize it or not - GAMES are your 1st & best enterprise customer set
Gaming is:
1. The biggest creative arts vertical by revenue/profits (& its not even close)
2. The biggest app category
3. Ideal for a PLG motion
Why👇
Couple more thoughts here...
On where to build in XR
- I'm still bullish on devs building productivity/creator tools/B2B apps for Vision Pro. It's an investment now for the future devices and you don't need network effects for it to work
- If you're building a game/consumer
This is crazy:
New Vision Pro app releases have plummeted...
We always talk about the "chicken or the egg" problem for XR apps & hardware...
...it does not appear that the AVP v1 (aka dev kit) has ignited the XR app ecosystem as we might have hoped
Out of nowhere, Pickleball has become the most popular organized sport in the US
5 Video Game design principles and trends that help explain how Pickleball eclipsed tennis 👇
11/ Light interacts with water in a way that messes with the MoCap markers. The reflections created false markers that disrupted the performance capture cameras
In order to solve this problem, the surface of the 900,000 gallon tank was covered in white balls
3/ Creators don’t fear AI, they’re excited:
89% of creators were excited or extremely excited about the impact of AI
A lower 58% thought their INDUSTRY PEERS were excited, indicating a perception bias resulting from doom & gloom headlines over destruction of jobs & theft of art
Big changes from Meta for the Quest ecosystem:
- Opening the OS to third party devices
- Expanding Meta Quest Store to 3P devices
- Xbox partnering to create a Quest device "inspired by Xbox"
- Lenovo and Asus building hardware using the OS
- Developing a new spatial app
ICYMI,
@finkd
just announced that we’re opening up the operating system powering our Meta Quest devices to third-party hardware makers, giving more choice to consumers and a larger ecosystem for developers to build for.
9/ Weta's tool Loki (a plug-in to Houdini) does the hard work
It offers a highly-parallelized distributed simulation framework for physics-based animation of fx incl. water but also combustion, hair, cloth, muscles, and plants
In the story, Joe Letteri discusses water and the studio's use of Loki, their unified multiphysics simulation framework for production, to help here. The video here is from a SIGGRAPH paper.
Why is there hope for browser games and interactive experiences?
WebGPU
After a 6+ year development, Chrome announced that WebGPU will be enabled by default by end of this month. It's the 1st browser to support the tech (w/ the others in active development)
1. Games are bigger than Movies & Music COMBINED (x4)
...and they're much more profitable
Rough avg profit Margins:
Games: ~25%
Movie studios: ~12%
Music labels: ~15%
🤔Do you remember:
- ?
- ?
- ?
The Golden Age of browser games is long gone, but we're soon to see a renaissance
Here's why the next Fortnite will be played from a browser 👇
The early consumer AI app race in hindsight will look like early App Store days
We're in the fart and flashlight app phase: devs working to out hustle each other exploring the latest OSS and APIs available to them. Spinning up short lived million $ revenue businesses in days
I’m happy with Unity’s changes. This is a pretty good outcome for developers
Main changes:
- Games < $1 million in trailing 12-month revenue have No Runtime fee.
- The Fee policy only applies for the next LTS version in 2024; Existing games and projects won't be affected
4/ Avatar 1 was one of the earliest films to utilize Virtual Production for pre-visualization. i.e. using a game engine/real-time rendering for Cameron to block out scenes and find the right camera angles using a "virtual camera," moving around low-poly assets in the viewport
Woww imagine you’re playing
@NBA2K
or
@EASPORTSFIFA
and the commentating is uniquely generated each time based on game events, your seasons progression in career mode, etc. Probably only 1-2 years away (sooner if a AAA could move quicker)…
All of this video game commentary was completely AI-generated!
Based on certain actions in a game (e.g., scoring a goal), the system generates announcements and color commentary.
This is really impressive.
Credit:
@bell_sms
(h/t
@aguynamedben
)
5/ With Avatar 2, lots of Weta's existing tech needed to be overhauled to acheive the photorealism that Jim Cameron demanded for his vision
In the Way of Water, 2,225 out of 3,240 shots in the film involve... water
7/ VFX Sup Eric Saindon stated in an interview: you need to simulate “the flow of waves on the ocean, interacting with characters, with environments, the thin film of water that runs down the skin, the way hair behaves when it’s wet, the index of refraction of light underwater"
We need SAFE online spaces for kids
@k_idofficial
ensures kids are protected and empowered to play games with their friends. Parents have the ease of mind knowing their kids digital spaces are appropriate and compliant.
k-ID makes what was previously a nightmare for game
19/ The race after Avatar 1's success to retrofit movies to 3D in Post-Production in order to capture extra $ at the box office stained people's memory of how great a 3D movie can be when executed well from conception
It excites me for the future of linear storytelling in VR
Critically, WebGPU also enables web apps running AI/ML model inferences to compute on local GPU vs offloading all workloads to the cloud
Important for things like photo and video creation apps but also evenutally AI enabled games
SR003 APPLICATIONS JUST 𝑫𝑹𝑶𝑷𝑷𝑬𝑫!
Want to secure $750K for your startup? Apply to SPEEDRUN here: (takes 15 mins!)
Application Deadline: May 19, 2024
Notified of Selection: End of June at the latest!
Program Dates: July 29 - Oct 20 in Los Angeles ☀️
@mikeatamas
@unity
@UnrealEngine
This was definitely the strategy: Provide more services/value via monetization services, multiplayer services, analytics, artistry tools, etc. But it didn't really work.
I think Unity should have the right to evolve and adapt its business model over time. But Unity should have
GenAI doesn’t replace artists, it turns everyone into an artist. But trained artists will still standout and enjoy massive accelerants to their traditional (or reinvented) workflows
The nature of gameplay will evolve dramatically when it's less about kill, jump, collect, craft and more about convince, outwit, befriend, and even love
Read more from
@Tocelot
about AI-First games and how we get there
thread/ the biggest opportunity for generative AI x games is unlocking new categories of play 🎮
we're seeing early glimpses of new AI-first games and the potential is massive. innovation > saving time or money
a few areas we're excited about 👇
8/ One of the patents Weta filed around this technological breakthrough:
“Methods of generating visual representations of a collision between an object and a fluid"
Gaming is the tip of the spear for cutting edge tech (see Nvidia, Slack, Discord, Twitch, Epic, AI Agents in Minecraft etc etc)
@speedrun
is the launch pad for founders building in tech x games
We're running it back with SR003 💪👇
📣 Calling All Founders 📣
SPEEDRUN is coming to Los Angeles this summer.
SPEEDRUN is
@a16zGames
accelerator for startups building at the intersection of tech x games, and we invest $750k in each selected company 👀
Applications for SR003 will be open from April 1st to May
1/ People always ask why Avatar 2 took so long to produce: It took over a decade of R&D for the tech to be up to Cameron's standards to depict Way of Water
Weta Digital (Cameron's go-to VFX / innovation partner) has long been lauded for pushing the bleeding edge of 3D graphics
1/ Few industries have seen sustained, high growth like gaming
The gaming market has nearly DOUBLED in the last 5 years and that growth is expected to continue for the foreseeable future
Tools and infra represent an est. 5-10% in the value chain of a rapidly growing industry
1/ Studios benefit from generative AI today:
AI allows small teams of creators to build games previously only achievable at AAA budgets. Meanwhile, large studios are chomping at the bit to find any way to accelerate production timelines cheaply