Great post! This reminds me of something I was once told during my PhD (by an unnamed advisor), who said that one "identification strategy" that has fallen out of favor in economics, which was actually the first, is "identification by simple historical facts + simple theory".

And search behavior doesn't vary much with income or age, I also find surprising!

Apparently, only 16% of people check Uber and Lyft. I'm very surprised! Every time I do, I'm shocked by the amount of price dispersion..

This is a good illustration of a general principle: As you build new high-end apartments, people move up, freeing up supply of lower-tier apartments. Building luxury housing thus lowers downmarket rents. You don't need to build 'affordable housing' to make housing affordable.

Some pretty dramatic stats in here such as - over 30% of companies can’t cover interest - over 40% of companies cutting workforce - deflation of up to 30% for some goods over the past couple years

Wealth flows from younger generations to Boomers h/t @GreenPlusAnE

Let me explain why I believe modern economics is such a powerful tool for understanding the world. I’ll do this by discussing a great paper by Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, @UncertainLars, Fabio Maccheroni, and Massimo Marinacci, “Making Decisions Under Model Misspecification,”

Great paper!!

🧩How does it all fit together? The logic: 1️⃣ Google makes it easier (cheaper) to learn TensorFlow. 2️⃣ More workers acquire the skill. 3️⃣ More firms adopt compatible cloud tools. 4️⃣ Google’s ecosystem — and rents — grow. Training is a strategic lever of market power.

Great summary of the morning AP papers (which I missed for teaching)!

How can you sustain debt/gdp ratios >>200%? at least for a while. By running a sovereign wealth fund with borrowed money, with 2 ingredients. 1⃣financial repression: relying on low-rate policies that tax depositors to keep your funding costs low, 2⃣risk-taking: earning a spread

Very ambitious work, I can’t wait to see the results in the coming years!

Everyone believes that monetary policy affects the real economy, but finding hard evidence is difficult. Changes in interest rates often come as a reaction to changes in the economy, and so need not cause it. This is one of the few well-identified pieces of evidence for it. 1/

While I generally think the current mortgage market equilibrium features too few ARMs, borrowers turning to ARMs to lower initial monthly payments never sounds like a great idea..

@BrianCAlbrecht @40yoap your not... I have that same number on my site, about 10% for July The other numbers are computed taking (i) all announced tariff measures and (ii) weighting them (country, product) at 2024 trade values. There you get something like 17% What is the disconnect? One is about

Thanks @LevyAntoine for digging into this. This graph has been really bugging me, and I’m glad I know now what’s wrong with it (without having done the work)!

Nice article - there is probably some truth to this for any form of government transfer! https://t.co/LS30PJ6Oen

While the stock market booms, overall U.S. economic growth remains sluggish. New research by Assistant Professor James D. Paron explains why these trends are two sides of the same coin.

I guess Piketty et al would see this as success. But it is a massive failure. If those in the high end of the global talent distribution no longer want to live here, that directly impacts the ability of the state to finance itself as well as the ability of the UK to grow,

Amazing graph from Yuriy’s discussion of @I_Am_NickBloom’s great paper today at @nberpubs Monetary! Bolivia offered energy subsidies in cost during pandemic, and was the only LA country without inflation. But then the government ran out of money, and inflation kicked in..