We are happy to release the first results of a RCT of a US program that provided $1,000/month unconditionally for 3 years to 1,000 individuals in the treatment group, with a group of 2,000 people receiving $50/month serving as the control. These are sizable transfers. 1/ 🧵

It's here! A workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs at @econuoft with the @fos_lab. Have some new results to share and looking forward to learning from others. Such a great community.

Delighted to have received an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant for the next phase of the Social Science Prediction Platform!. Some exciting new developments coming soon. watch this space! @socscipredict @SloanFoundation @econuoft.

Should have bet on prediction markets. Cheap talk now, of course.

Very last chance to sign up for this workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs, held in Toronto on June 26!.

RT @heidilwilliams_: Grateful for the opportunity to play a small role in supporting this creative and important initiative led by @mattscl….

Excited to be presenting at the Forecasting Research Institute tomorrow on forecasting social science results, based on experiences with the Social Science Prediction Platform. Looking forward to the discussion! @Research_FRI.

RT @MaxGhenis: Looking forward to participating in this @UofT @fos_lab workshop on cash transfers in Toronto June 26

Wow. Wonder how this will change the space.

Here's an accessible link:

Good day to dust off this old classic:

RT @florianederer: This is probably the worst prediction graph I've ever seen.

RT @arpitrage: A reminder for new grads that graduating into a weak economy has persistent negative wage effects

Suppose that in the future newer models were used, with non-fake citations. You can always find at least one study that supports whatever wacky view. Heck, you could have AI design a bad study to cite. We're going to need new ways of evaluating and constraining bad takes.

Excited to attend this workshop on #AI at UofT today.

A short summary of recent work with @AidanCoville and @sampskc on the large amount of weight policymakers place on local evidence, now out at the JDE:.

Also, if you registered and were put on a waitlist, check if you were released from the waitlist - you still need to claim your spot in that case. 2/2.

Just a reminder about this one-day workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs in North America, happening the day before SOLE/EALE/AASLE. Register now if interested, else there may not be space! 1/.

Blog post drawing a connection between these potentially disparate-seeming topics: At the end of the day, the most efficient policy might be one which on the face of it looks a little inefficient, if it reduces risks. 8/8.

Because it's too easy to have hubris, to think you really do know best. And as people become initially successful, there are fewer and fewer other people who will tell them when something is a bad idea. 7/.

I'm particularly nervous when this willingness to frame any restriction as meaningless red tape coincides with authoritarianism or a kind of technocracy where enterprising founder/hero figures are presumed to know best. 6/.