the Plug
@thePlugWeekly
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I tweet about energy, through the lenses of policy, finance, and geopolitics. The newsletter linked below is where I share longer-form content. 👇
Washington, DC
Joined May 2021
1/n After a series of client meetings these past weeks, a recurring theme has emerged on the US energy “transition.” Investors seem overly focused on variable costs for new energy tech right now. Not enough attention is being paid to capex, cost of capital, and build time. 🧵
@BrianGitt “Only?” How can a SMR technology that does not actually operate in the world provide the only practical solution? I’m all in on the concept; let’s just see one operate 1st before we hand over the future of the data center business to it. And let’s see how low cost it actually is.
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The CA agencies provided no analysis in support of their bold claims, because no actual study would back them up. So this is essentially just a set of states using 'trust me bro' as justification for warping a half-trillion dollar federal program in their favor.
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Anyone else remember how we were supposed to have a supply-driven super cycle and then OPEC+ cut production by 5 MMbpd and we traded sideways for a year?
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I’ll take the other side of this bet.
Hydrogen is projected to account for 16% of road transport, potentially competing with battery-powered electric vehicles. https://t.co/wpgyJaVMDN
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PMPP looking more likely with every passing day.
Federal Polling: CPC: 43% (+9) LPC: 24% (-9) NDP: 18% (-) Abacus Data / February 7, 2024 / n=2398 / Online (% Change With 2021 Federal Election) Check out federal details on @338Canada at: https://t.co/kg1xi0UiUP
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🛢️ WHAT'S COMMODITY CONTEXT? 🛢️ Many new subscribers and it had been *ages* since I last updated the About page. Here's a [re]introduction of myself and what you can expect from my oil market research at Commodity Context Read more: https://t.co/6odlY3ineG
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Energy nerds, you don’t get the night off. There’s a whole energy title in the Immigration/Security bill. (Pages 24-29 in the bill text). Spoiler alert: nuclear.
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Nigeria's currency has lost 2/3rds of its value relative to USD over the past year. Anyone holding domestic cash/deposits had their savings greatly devalued, and everyone who is paid in the local currency who can't negotiate a tripling of their income has less purchasing power.
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@KlendathuCap Think you’re maybe underestimating the political dynamic of a company 75% owned by the govt… do you think it would have been politically palatable to target below their subsoil use agreement levels given they are the entire lowest quartile of the cost curve and #uranium prices
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New LNG export permits are on pause because of climate change. Meanwhile, U.S. coal exports just hit a five-year high. https://t.co/DJ5NJt0HuB
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The fundamental problem with carbon management is that the politics are not great but the physics are also not great
The fundamental problem with hydrogen is that the politics are great but the physics is not
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CHART OF THE DAY: The two largest economies in Africa are under huge financial strain. Yesterday, Nigeria de facto devalued the naira by ~30% (after another ~30% devaluation in June). And Egypt is under pressure to devalue too, with the pound ~50% weaker in the black market.
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A Senior U.S. Official has told NBC News that the Biden Administration alongside Defense Officials are preparing for a “Military Campaign in the Middle East which could last for Several Weeks” and include Strikes on Iranian and Iranian-Backed Forces in Iraq and Syria as well as
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Something I’m thinking about a lot is data uncertainty in emissions inventories. The methane leakage problem is probably the most obvious example but so much of our fundamental data is stitched together with string and scotch tape. No measurements, huge error bars!
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Going to keep this obscure to avoid controversy, but there are four related issues with the next steps for the 45V NPRM as Treasury seeks flexibility. Those are: - Energy storage - Curtailment - 5% freebie rule - "Annual aggregation" calculation Gotta bundle them coherently.
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As we relax into a "no landing" 2024 year be mindful that inflation in key sectors will likely reappear and resurge with supply chain disruptions
This chart strongly suggests that every time super=core PCE (core services less housing) falls far below US wage growth, as in 2009, it rebounds sharply thereafter. We see upside risks to US inflation going forward. To find out more, go to: https://t.co/GJbVKwqaRZ
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2024 may be the year people are reminded that electricity doesn't grow on trees
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I have made a lot of analogies between energy and food over the years. That’s partly because I am the co-founder of an energy research firm—which means I spend a lot of my time talking about energy—and I also happen to really enjoy eating. 🧵 It’s also partly because even people
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