Philippe J. Fournier
@338Canada
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Editor-in-Chief 338Canada / Rédacteur en chef Qc125丨Chroniqueur @Lactualite / @PoliticoOttawa contributor丨Co-host The Numbers/Les chiffres丨Prof astro @cegepsl
Montréal
Joined September 2015
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Last Seen Profiles
New federal poll from
@abacusdataca
: "This is the largest lead we have measured for the Conservatives since the 2015 election."
→
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338Canada federal projection update | October 22, 2023
Details →
Analysis →
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This is the first "bad" poll for Poilievre. It shows Charest would win Atlantic Canada, would be competitive in Quebec, would do better than Poilievre in Ontario... all at the expense of losing some Prairie and Alberta votes (which the CPC could afford).
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Whatever you think of Jean Charest, this leadership race just got a whole lot more interesting.
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Some serious movement in Alberta, as Abacus now measures ANDP in front.
Alberta provincial voting intentions from Abacus Data:
🟠NDP 51%
🔵UCP 41%
🟣ABP 5%
[Abacus Data, May 9-12, 2023, n=885]
→
#ABpoli
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Punctuation matters.
Quebecer shot after allegedly threatening Trudeau, Legault facing weapons charge
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Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Léger:
🔴LPC 33%
🔵CPC 31%
🟠NDP 19%
⚜️BQ 8% (34% in Qc)
🟢GPC 6%
🟣PPC 2%
→
[Léger, May 26-29, 2023, n=1,531]
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Changing laws without consulting the legislature is what authoritarian regimes do.
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Some of you had noticed: I no longer write for Maclean's. I truly enjoyed my time there, but the new editors are taking the magazine elsewhere. Best of luck to them.
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To replace Don Cherry, Rogers should do a complete 180° and hire Marie-Philip Poulin.
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Il reste encore une heure, mais c’est le meilleur débat politique des dernières années. On les entend parler, c’est cohérent, pas de cacophonie. Enfin.
#quebec2022
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“Agree or disagree? I’m willing to get a booster each year, for as long as it is recommended.”
🟢62% Agree
🔴30% Disagree
⚪️8% Not sure
[Angus Reid Institute, July 13-15, 2022, n=1,583]
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New federal poll from Pallas Data: Conservatives Lead Liberals by 16 points
Details →
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"Which of the following people would be the best leader of the CPC?"
Among CPC voters:
Poilievre 41%
Charest 10%
MacKay 9%
Brown 3%
Lewis 2%
[Léger, March 4-6, 2022]
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A Bryan Burke quote about an 18-wheeler going off a cliff strangely comes to mind...
Federal poll from Mainstreet / iPolitics:
CPC 37%
LPC 31%
NDP 19%
BQ 5% (23% in Qc)
PPC 4%
GPC 3%
Details:
[Mainstreet, Aug. 24-26, 2021, n=1,619]
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"Regardless of whether these measures are still in place where you live, do you support wearing a mask in public indoor spaces?"
🇨🇦
Support 73%
[Angus Reid, March 1-4, 2022, n=2,550]
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Merci aux lecteurs et lectrices de Qc125 qui ont commenté et partagé tout au long de cette campagne!
J'aurai une analyse des résultats et des sondages sous peu, mais là, vous me pardonnerez, mon cerveau est un peu en compote ce matin. :-)
📈📉📊
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Well, that took a turn.
Innovative Research Group Ontario provincial poll:
OLP 35%
PC 30%
NDP 26%
GPO 8%
[IRG, April 15-20, 2021, n=800]
#onpoli
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Il a été mon coach de hockey, même si j'étais pourri. Il m'a encouragé lors de mes études, même quand je voulais tout abandonner. Fan de Star Trek, il me parlait souvent d'espace et de voyages interstellaires.
Il a été un merveilleux père qui nous a quittés trop tôt.
RIP, Papa.
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Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Mainstreet Research:
🔵CPC 41%
🔴LPC 28%
🟠NDP 15%
⚜️BQ 7%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 3%
→
[Mainstreet Research, August 21-23, 2023, n=1,280]
#canpoli
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Liberals in Free Fall, CPC widens lead
My latest for 338Canada with updated numbers.
Click on the image below for details ↓
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Poll data from Léger 🇨🇦 : Trumpism is alive and well on Canada’s right
My column:
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**Politique-fiction**
Et si seulement les électeurs de 18-34 ans votaient?
🟠QS 88
🔵CAQ 27
🔴PLQ 7
⚫️PCQ 2
⚜️PQ 1
[En utilisant les données du dernier sondage Léger/Québecor]
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I feel a bit sorry for English Canada. This French debate is **lightyears** ahead in quality and discipline. Maybe it's harder to cut/interrupt others in a second language?
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Canadian federal voting intentions from Abacus Data / Toronto Star:
🔵CPC 38%
🔴LPC 26%
🟠NDP 19%
⚜️BQ 7%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 4%
→
[Abacus Data, August 18-23, 2023, n=2,189]
#canpoli
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New Mainstreet Research poll for
@ipoliticsca
has the Liberals with 41% nationally - 12 points ahead of the Conservatives - "suggesting the damage in popularity they suffered from the WE Charity controversy is behind them,"
[Aug.11-22, 2020, n=1594, IVR]
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Alberta provincial voting intentions from Research Co.:
🟠NDP 45%
🔵UCP 30%
🟢WIP 8%
🟣ABP 7%
🔴ALP 5%
→
[Research Co., March 11-13, 2023, n=600]
#abpoli
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Un lecteur m’écrit pour dénoncer l’utilisation de l’expression « post mortem » dans mon dernier billet, un anglicisme selon lui.
J’en perds mon latin.
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157 Lib & 121 CPC would be the funniest result, I must say.
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Don't forget: Polls do not predict the future. They describe, with some degree of certainty, the very recent past.
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Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Abacus Data:
🔵CPC 44%
🔴LPC 24%
🟠NDP 17%
⚜️BQ 6%
🟢GPC 5%
🟣PPC 3%
→
[Abacus Data, April 3-9, 2024, n=2,000]
#canpoli
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Do you support or oppose the [Liberal-NDP] agreement?
🇨🇦
Support 63%
Oppose 37%
Partisan breakdown below
[Ipsos, March 25-28, 2022, n=1,000]
#canpoli
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Have you been vaccinated against COVID19?
🇨🇦
91% Yes
9% No
Yes, by 2021 federal vote:
🔴LPC 99%
🟠NDP 98%
⚜️BQ 97%
🟢GPC 96%
🔵CPC 88%
🟣PPC 41%
[Angus Reid, Nov. 26-29, 2021, n=2,005]
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"Climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by human activities"
% of current voters agree:
🟠NDP 90%
🔴LPC 89%
⚜️BQ 78%
🟢GPC 77%
🔵CPC 33%
[Angus Reid, March 20-22, 2024, n=1602]
Why Reduce Carbon Emissions if Carbon Emissions Aren't a Problem? ↓
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Federal voting intentions, voters aged 18-34 years old only:
NDP 37%
LPC 27%
CPC 23%
GPC 5%
BQ 4%
PPC 4%
[Léger / Postmedia, Aug. 20-22, 2021]
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La critique est facile, je sais. Je ne voudrais pas être à leur place, je le reconnais. Mais le couvre-feu affecte les gens différemment: facile quand on a une cour arrière et un sous-sol, pas autant dans un 3½ ou 4½.
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Sunday projection update coming soon, and oh boy is it a brutal one for the Liberals. Worst one since I began to keep track in 2017.
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Intentions de vote au Québec, sondage Pallas Data:
⚜️PQ 30%
🔵CAQ 24%
🟠QS 16%
🔴PLQ 16%
⚫️PCQ 11%
Détails →
[Pallas Data, 17-18 novembre 2023, n = 1 178]
#polQC
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Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Abacus Data:
🔵CPC 36%
🔴LPC 29%
🟠NDP 18%
⚜️BQ 8% (36% in Qc)
🟣PPC 4%
🟢GPC 3%
→
[Abacus Data, March 2-4, 2023, n=2,600]
#canpoli
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Léger poll shows Liberals falling behind Conservatives
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I hear this "electoral reform" thing is popular around these parts.
Here are seat projections with proportional representation using current federal numbers.
It's pure politics-fiction, just for fun. I know voting patterns would change, etc.
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Three months ago, CPC & LPC were all tied up.
Then the bottom fell out for the Liberals.
Read my latest here →
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That "deal" is the Quebec-California Carbon Market, which interestingly Ontario used to be part of - before Ford opted out.
Typical rage farming.
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Shout-out to all journalists who worked on the Hill this weekend. Pour yourselves a well-deserved drink tonight. You rock. ❤️💚🧡💙
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Les non-vaccinés sont, statistiquement, des meilleurs vecteurs d’infections.
Se faire vacciner, ça ne protège pas seulement soi-même, mais tout notre entourage aussi.
Les non-vaccinés mettent en danger les autres, car ils sont de possibles nids d’éclosions de nouveaux variants.
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Holy, those Léger numbers this morning.
Combination of high government approval and CPC leadership candidates not doing themselves any favours of late?
#canpoli
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For just kicks:
What if Canada had American-style winner-take-all by province/territory:
LPC 233
CPC 104
NDP 1
GR 0
BQ 0
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I asked a former CPC member whether he'd go back if O'Toole is ousted. His answer: "No."
What would make you go back?
"Demerge the PC & Reform."
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Majority territory for the Conservatives according to this.
Only 26 months until the election...
Federal Polling:
CPC: 37% (+3)
LPC: 27% (-6)
NDP: 20% (+2)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 6% (+4)
PPC: 3% (-2)
Nanos Research / August 4, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone
(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Check out federal details on
@338Canada
at:
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Je m’asseois dans un pub pour prendre une bière tranquille et lire les nouvelles. La serveuse arrive, me voit, grand yeux et main sur la bouche: “OMG êtes-vous mon ancien prof d’astronomie? Votre cours était tellement cool!!”
Il n’y a pas de meilleur feeling au monde. 🍺🍀
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Alberta provincial voting intentions from Janet Brown Opinion Research:
🔵UCP 52%
🟠NDP 44%
→
[Janet Brown, May 12-24, 2023, n=1,200]
#ABpoli
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436
"Once you are vaccinated, would you like to receive, free of charge, a vaccine passport that you could carry with you and show when asked?"
🇨🇦
76% Yes
9% No
9% Will not get vaccinated
6% Don't know
[Léger, Mat 7-9, 2021, n=1,529]
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Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Léger / The Canadian Press:
🔵CPC 40%
🔴LPC 26%
🟠NDP 17%
⚜️BQ 7% (30% in Qc)
🟢GPC 6%
🟣PPC 3%
→
[Léger, October 27-29, n=1,632]
#canpoli
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338Canada federal update | March 17, 2024
🔵CPC 211
🔴LPC 64
⚜️BQ 36
🟠NDP 25
🟢GPC 2
338 Sunday Update: 18 Months Until Dissolution...↓
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Ten years ago today: Harper wins majority, Liberals and Bloc collapse, and Layton's NDP becomes Official Opposition in Ottawa.
#canpoli
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When you elect populist demagogues, things might go "sort of okay" as long as the country/state/province is on cruise control. But when a true crisis arises, one that requires leadership and competence? You're in trouble.
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"Climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by human activities."
% agree per 2019 🇨🇦 federal vote:
BQ 92%
NDP 91%
LPC 90%
GRN 89%
CPC 34%
[Angus Reid Institute, April 20-25, 2021, n=2,008]
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Speculation of snap federal election is silly, come on now. Enjoy summer.
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Dear readers, I am pleased to inform you that I joined the vary talented teams of writers at
@politico
. I am over the Moon. Thank you very kindly for reading and sharing.
338Canada: Why Canada’s conservatives are keeping quiet on abortion
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Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Abacus Data:
🔵CPC 43%
🔴LPC 24%
🟠NDP 18%
⚜️BQ 8%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 3%
→
[Abacus Data, February 1-7, 2024, n=2,398]
#canpoli
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2019 Canadian debates, ranked:
1. Commission French debate
2. TVA French debate
3. Maclean's English debate
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
99. Commission English debate
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Alberta provincial voting intentions from Léger / Postmedia. Rachel Notley's NDP remains in the lead:
🟠NDP 45%
🔵UCP 34%
🟢WIP 8%
🟣ABP 6%
🔴LIB 4%
→
[Léger, July 22-26, 2021, n=1,377]
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Counting up all vaccine deals per capita, Canada leads the pack, with nearly nine doses per person. “Canada has done exactly what we would expect a high-income country to do, and they’ve done the right thing by their country,” says Andrea Taylor at Duke.
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I don’t pretend to be an expert on 🇷🇺🇺🇦, so I keep quiet, read, learn.
I’ll say this though: Democracy had been taking a beating in many places lately. Perhaps Putin’s aggression awakens alliances & reignites the will to defend democracy. Through this horror, there may be hope.
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My latest: Polls show CPC inching towards majority territory
(But there's no election in sight)
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338Canada federal update | February 18, 2024
Details →
Sign up to receive every update →
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Si un de mes étudiant me rendait un rapport de laboratoire avec une telle visualisation de données, ce serait assurément un échec.
Master class from Journal de Montréal this morning on manipulating opinion with charts. Love that Y-Axis. The Big 5 coming up on
#CJAD800
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No one mocked Harper's or Layton's French, because it showed they were trying.
Yes, learning a new language is hard, but you'd be surprised how much tolerance french speakers have towards those who make efforts.
It's those who don't even bother trying that should "get stuffed".
Oh — and let’s say MacKay vows to learn French and works hard at it. The people who assume he should already speak French will be mocking his accent in the debates and his competence throughout; you’re almost better off telling critics to get stuffed now instead of trying.
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Education:
Highschool or less:
🔵UCP 65%
🟠NDP 22%
University:
🟠NDP 58%
🔵UCP 30%
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Four consecutive weeks of NDP rising and CPC dropping in Nanos federal numbers (paywalled here: ).
NDP and CPC are now well within margin of error of each other. Can this be?
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Federal voting intentions, voters aged 18-34 years old only:
NDP 35%
LPC 28%
CPC 18%
GRN 9%
PPC 5%
BQ 2%
[EKOS, Apr.30-May 6, 2021]
→
#canpoli
@VoiceOfFranky
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Federal voting intentions 🇨🇦, female voters only:
LPC 43%
NDP 24%
CPC 22%
BQ 6%
GPC 5%
[Angus Reid Institute, Jan.20-24, 2021]
→
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New Léger poll is quite the "narrative buster"...
Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Léger:
🔴LPC 33%
🔵CPC 32%
🟠NDP 19%
⚜️BQ 9% (38% in Qc)
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 2%
→
[Léger, March 10-12, 2023, n=1,544]
#canpoli
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New federal poll from Ipsos / Global News measures CPC support at only 26% nationally, putting the Liberals in majority territory.
LPC 38%
CPC 26%
NDP 20%
BQ 8% (34% in Qc)
GPC 7%
→
[Ipsos / Global News, June 17-22, 2021, n=1,501]
#canpoli
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Dons aux partis politiques québécois depuis le dèbut de 2022:
⚫️PCQ 402 000 $
⚜️PQ 340 000 $
🟠QS 247 000 $
🔵CAQ 206 000 $
🔴PLQ 123 000 $
Source: info transmise à
@Lactualite
par le Directeur général des élections du Québec
#polqc
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Le PLQ comme force politique au Québec, 1867-2023 RIP
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Ontario (n=717)
🔵CPC 42%
🔴LPC 28%
🟠NDP 19%
Quebec (n=405)
🔵CPC 27%
🔴LPC 26%
⚜️BQ 26%
Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Mainstreet Research:
🔵CPC 41%
🔴LPC 26%
🟠NDP 18%
⚜️BQ 6%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 3%
→
[Mainstreet Research, November 5-6, 2023, n=1,892]
#canpoli
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“To what extent are you proud to be Canadian?”
🟢81% Very/Somewhat proud
🔴16% Not very/Not at all proud
[Léger, June 23-25, 2023, n=1,512]
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Federal voting intentions from
@InnovativeRG
:
🇨🇦
LPC 40%
CPC 27%
NDP 18%
GPC 7%
BQ 4%
Details and regionals →
[Innovative Research Group, April 22 - May 5, 2021, n=2,000]
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Le PQ en tête, la CAQ dégringole
Un nouveau sondage Pallas Data place désormais le Parti québécois en tête des intentions de vote, à la faveur d’une déconvenue caquiste.
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It's not over yet, but it looks like 338 did pretty well tonight.
It's not perfect. It's not **meant** to be perfect (statistics!!). But pretty good nonetheless.
Thank you, dear readers. 🙏
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Résultats de l'élection, île de Montréal:
🔴PLQ 34,9%
🟠QS 22,5%
🔵CAQ 18,6%
⚜️PQ 10,7%
⚫️PCQ 8,8%
Hors de l'île de Montréal:
🔵CAQ 45,9%
⚜️PQ 15,5%
🟠QS 13,9%
⚫️PCQ 13,8%
🔴PLQ 9,8%
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Intentions de vote au Québec, sondage Recherche Mainstreet:
🟦CAQ 38%
⬛️PCQ 21%
🟥PLQ 17%
🟧QS 12%
⚜️PQ 7%
→
[Mainstreet, 25-28 août 2022, n = 1 067]
#polqc
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It's really hard for either the LPC or CPC to reach the majority threshold (170 seats) when the NDP and Bloc take a combined 60+ seats.
Unless one party collapses, we are heading for a 5th minority in 7 federal elections in this century.
#Elxn44
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→
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Mise à jour de la projection Qc125 | 7 décembre 2023
Détails →
Cherchez votre circonscription →
Carte →
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338Canada Federal Update | October 29, 2023
Details →
Find your district →
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Don’t be complacent 🇨🇦
Canada has its own share of Trump supporters that think this is all great.
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**Politics-fiction**
What if only women voted in the Alberta election? (Based on latest ThinkHQ poll)
🟠NDP 59✓
🔵UCP 28
#ABpoli
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