Mark Sobel
@sobel_mark
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Former US Treasury/US rep IMF; US Chairman OMFIF; Non-Res Senior Advisor CSIS
Joined June 2018
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Dollarization is the wrong path for Argentina.
There is no silver bullet.
🇦🇷 must focus on the hard work of stabilization & liberalization. Like the "convertibility plan", inflexible "no exit" dollarization could create far worse convulsion.👇👇
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A wonderful and well deserved testimonial to Daleep Singh, one of America's finest and smartest public servants and expert in the international financial system.
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Wouldn't it be nice if everybody took a 3-month break from the decades long practice of writing the demise of the dollar as reserve currency story?
The U.S. dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency is coming under threat, as evinced by the recent surge in gold prices, Goldman warns
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Really? One of the dumbest ideas I've ever heard!
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Alejandro Diaz de Leon, the outstanding Governor of Mexico’s central bank and a first class civil servant and person, fights for strong Mexican macro policies till the very end! Congratulations to Alejandro on his wonderful public service over many years at Hacienda and Banxico.
Wow. Banxico sorprende a los economistas con un alza de CINCUENTA puntos base en la tasa de interés frente a la creciente amenaza de la inflación, y el peso reacciona de inmediato con una apreciación
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Is Ecuador's debt deal the first use of single limb CACs in a sov debt restructuring? Experts, such as Anna Gelpern & Lee Buchheit, will know.
If so, a highly welcome outcome for the contractual framework and predictability of the restructuring process!
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Now is the time for 🇩🇪 to immediately boost its defense budget, meet NATO's 2% of GDP spending target, & go higher.
Now is the time for 🇩🇪 to stop squabbling about the schuldenbremse and invest massively in renewable/other energy forms & unshackle from Russia's stranglehold.
Germany's former defence minister Kramp-Karrenbauer: "This is our historic failure. We did nothing after Georgia, Crimea and Donbas that would have really deterred Putin... I am so furious at us."
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Europe needs to join the US position and find the intestinal fortitude ASAP to seize Russian central bank assets and transfer them to Ukraine.👇👇
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China lent unsustainably to Suriname. It's a longstanding fundamental IMF principle that financing assurances are needed & debt should be sustainable.
One can blame USA for much; not this.
It's about Chinese footdragging in accepting losses on its excess unsustainable lending.
A global debt crisis is playing out just as the world’s two largest economies are battling over the rules that should apply. Meanwhile, debtor countries are caught in the middle, ordinary people bearing the costs. My story from Suriname
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The story of dollar demise has been written for decades, going back to the 60s & the “exorbitant privilege”. Yet the $ hangs in there quite well. But new variants on the story always prove endlessly irresistible. Maybe a decade from now we will see how this mutation stacks up.
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Indeed. Michael Pettis has done an excellent job in making these points for many years.
Also, among others, George Magnus deserves to be singled out in my view.
The WSJ officially calls the end of the Chinese boom.
(It should be noted that
@michaelxpettis
has been documenting every single aspect of this for over a decade).
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It's September. UKR's fight vs Russia must be financed, not just w arms, but econ aid to help keep govt running & avoid money printing/high inflation. US is delivering arms & econ aid.
EU STILL HASN'T DISBURSED VAST BULK OF ITS PLEDGE. WHERE IS THE IMF?
THIS IS A FAILURE.
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Fascinating to me that Argentina has 50+% inflation, huge official/parallel XR gap, massive price/capital controls and the debate is about IMF surcharge policy.
Also a fascinating argument that long outstanding massive loans shouldn't be reflected in the lending rate.
To add on this, the discussion on IMF surcharges in this article is misleading. Surcharges are not an Argentina problem. They are an IMF problem. Other countries, such as Ecuador or Egypt will end up paying substantial amounts to the IMF for this concept. They need to go.
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So, despite all the talk about dollar demise, the dollar's share remains much where it was in 1990!
Apparently, the RMB/eRMB hasn't taken over yet, & despite Hamiltonian NGEU & EU cries about dollar weaponization/unfair "exorbitant privilege", the euro heads south.
Hmmm.
The
#BISTriennialSurvey
shows that the USD was on one side of 88% of all
#FX
trades, unchanged from 2019. The share with the euro on one side decreased marginally. The renminbi’s share rose to 7%, making it the fifth most-traded currency in 2022
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I'm also a former US IMF rep, and a longtime Treasury civil servant with oversight responsibilities for the IMF. As I wrote👇, dollarization is a potentially perilous no exit strategy and a distraction from the hard work that needs to be done.
A former US representative at the IMF supports Argentina dropping the peso in favor of the dollar to help thwart one of the world’s fastest inflation rates
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Does China want the RMB to play a significant global financial/reserve role? My answer -- not now. See below.
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This guy complained about the exorbitant privilege in the 1960s. Almost 60 years later, the $ is still dominant. It's not even a close call. The others don't want to do what it takes to be a global currency, despite the "exorbitant" benefits. YAWN!!!!!!!
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👍👍 An extremely positive development. The US & China account for some 40% of global GDP. They should remain fully engaged, speaking often at all levels, even amid discord. Who better to restart engagement than these two top flight, smart, first rate & experienced policymakers.
I met today with People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang at the G20 to discuss global macroeconomic and financial challenges, including economic prospects of our two countries. I look forward to future engagements with PRC economic officials.
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Good story!
Treasury is right on this one.
Sanctions are crippling Russian economy.
The ruble rate on the screen is not to be taken seriously.
Highly administered, managed & one-sided given heavy capital controls, surrender requirements & undoubtedly CBR skullduggery.
US insists sanctions are working despite rouble’s rebound via
@FT
@courtney_ft
and
@kateduguid
on the latest from Treasury
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One of the world's and America's smartest, wisest, kindest and most experienced international financial diplomats.
Treasury's international civil service team is first rate. This will be a powerful combination. A+++
Exclusive:
@JanetYellen
to name ex-IMF official
@DavidLipton
to senior
@USTreasury
role, sources say
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Germany is in recession, has tons of fiscal space and pressing defense/climate/infrastructure needs and it’s going to slash budgetary spending? Hmmm!
The German Chancellor and Finance Minister are thrashing out a plan to close a $22 billion shortfall in the 2024 budget with expenditure cuts in all departments except defense
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My thoughts on the dollar's 2021 FX outlook. It may decline but the overly negative narrative is overdone. Why I think many market arguments pointing to a big decline don't hold up.
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David Lipton is one of the finest individuals I have ever known. A superb teacher & economist. Loved by IMF staff, Board & around world. No better diagnostician of country economic challenges. He is irreplaceable. A loss for IMF and the world. Best to him & Susan&kids.
It has been an honor to work at the Fund, first for 8 yrs at the start of my professional career in 1981 & then as FDMD since 2011. The IMF is an institution that provides an invaluable service to its member countries, their citizens & the global economy.
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Powell is an excellent public servant & monetary policy steward amid tough times. It's reasonable to argue US banks could be more tightly overseen, but they are strongly capitalized. Whether one is for/against him, calling him "dangerous" is gratuitous & flies in face of facts.
How can one genuinely say that banks are less safe today than in 2008? Aside from the much tighter regulation, they just weathered very well the steepest recession in memory. Yes, other policy steps helped, but then Powell wasn't lucky—he was good. 1/2
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Great photo!
Congratulations to Sec Yellen for making the arduous and difficult journey to show America's unshakable solidarity with Ukraine.
>
@SecYellen
visits Ukraine to discuss critical economic assistance and our efforts to hold Russia accountable for their illegal and brutal war.
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Great tweet!
Whether sanctions could have deterred Putin from going into Ukraine is debatable.
But further to the chart below, there is no doubt -- the sanctions that have been and will be announced will exact a tough & punishing economic toll on Russia and its people.
Key goal of western policy makers now is to drive Russia into as deep a recession as possible. Markets are already doing much of that. The Ruble collapse is drastically tightening financial conditions, with money markets pricing CBR hikes (purple) way beyond 2009 after the GFC...
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No Russian should be allowed into any G20 gathering for the time being.
This is a very powerful move and one that came faster than expected. To put this in perspective, the G7 just told a member of the G20 that their foreign assets are frozen. That is unprecedented.
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Congratulations to the Treasury, WH & other USG staff for their splendid efforts in working so hard to put these forceful and unprecedented measures in place and for the extraordinary multilateral cooperation!
In partnership with our allies, Treasury has prohibited transactions with the Central Bank of Russia by U.S. persons, and imposed sanctions on key sources of Russia’s wealth.
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China's current account surplus near balance. FX reserves fell $1 trillion between 2014/early 2017 & since fairly flat. IMF judges China's external position in line with fundamentals.
If the Chinese are manipulating the RMB, they are apparently pretty incompetent at doing so.
Sen. Schumer: Mnuchin should officially label China a FX manipulator
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Alas, I couldn’t restrain myself from writing about the debt ceiling and the mess that the US calls “fiscal policy”.
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The US current and trade account deficits could widen sharply in 2021. Could currency wars and global imbalances disputes soon be back on the table? Some thoughts.
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Secretary Yellen is off to Beijing. That's great news. Dialogue is good. But the talks won't change the realities of the fraught US/China relationship. Don't expect much.
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Outstanding piece from Michael Pettis!
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My latest piece on US dollar diplomacy/currency policy under a Yellen Treasury. What needs to change.
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Larry Summers is spot on!
Russia has barbarically perpetrated war crimes & inestimable suffering/damage.
Too much legal shilly-shallying & hand-wringing over using Russian assets to finance Ukraine.
G7/others should figure out smart way to do this & get on with it.
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China is not seeking a weaker RMB to gain trade advantage or mitigate slowdown. But a large persistent capital outflow is a key risk. My commentary on the RMB's latest developments.
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When Gelpern, Mazarei and Hagan speak out, let alone on sovereign debt, everybody should listen.
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Some thoughts (below) on US/global econ/fin impacts on emerging markets/low income countries & the need for greater differentiation/nuance in assessing EMs & EMs vs LICs.
US tightening no longer necessarily means EM crises and stress.
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Let's hope the IMF is not countenancing excessive adjustment on the backs of the people to the benefit of private & official creditors.
The IMF is asking Sri Lanka to reach a primary surplus of 2.3% of GDP by 2025. It is a huge effort even by the standards of large fiscal adjustments in EM. Improvements of more than 4% of GDP aren't common. Sri Lanka is aiming for more than 6%
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David Lipton is a global & American treasure. He used his extraordinary mind, genuine warmth & interest in substance (not turf) to improve public policy & the welfare of the US & world's people. His longtime service at Treasury & IMF was beyond exemplary. Thank you, David Lipton.
New: David Lipton, a longtime economic diplomat, will step down from Treasury and is retiring.
He was one of Yellen’s closest advisers, who she described as “irreplaceable.”
Larry Summers called him a hero of the international financial system.
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The outlook for inflation, rates, Fed policy & FX markets. Robin Brooks (IIF), Bob Savage (BNYMellon) and John Fagan (Markets Partners) joined me/OMFIF for a first rate debate.
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Earlier this week, I was privileged & honored to lecture on the US dollar's dominant systemic role at the University of Wisconsin. There is no foreseeable future alternative. 👇👇
Huge thanks to Mark Copelovitch, Menzie Chinn & European Studies.
The recording is now available of Mark Sobel's April 4 lecture "Why is the Dollar still King?" at UW-Madison! View here
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Some thoughts on tensions in foreign exchange markets — dollar, euro, yen and RMB.
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Janet Yellen's legacy is already set in stone. She is one of America's most outstanding economists and finest public servants in US history. Nothing is being eroded.
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The dollar is still trading largely where it was at the beginning of the year. On a trade weighted basis, it's well above long term averages.
These stories are a bit overly dramatic.
Dollar blues: why the pandemic is testing confidence in the US currency
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Highly exaggerated/overdone. RMB won't be key player till it's convertible; China has deep liquid capital markets, independent CB, floating currency, & respects property rights. Use in trade settlement not = a global financing role.
Does 🇨🇳 really want to be too close to 🇷🇺?
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Some reflections on defining challenges facing the IMF.
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Not buying it. $ strength due to i-differentials, better US energy pic, more dynamic than EUR/JAP =fundamentals.
Sterilized $-selling leaves monpol unchanged. Unsterilized=Fed easing; not Fed's wish.
Even if op surprise catches long $ positions, reaction likely short-lived.
Opinion: This is the moment for the Biden administration to abandon its indifference to the surging dollar, recognise its destabilising effects and rally countries to weaken the dollar by selling it
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It's not just about the G20 Summit.
G20 bodies meet all year. G20 Finance Ministers & Central Banks meet in 2 weeks. Will Janet Yellen partake in a meeting with Russia's finance minister?
Suspend Russia from all G20 proceedings now.
G20 officials wondering how to handle Putin showing up at their summit in Indonesia in November
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If true, this is nonsensical. Russia is engaged in a barbaric war against Ukraine, disrupting the global economy.
If India can't mention the "war", the US simply shouldn't sign any G20 communique. India can issue a Chair's statement.
Indian officials hosting G20 finance chiefs are seeking to avoid using the word “war” in any joint statement when referring to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, per person familiar. That would mark a divergence from the consensus reached in Bali last November.
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Agreed.
The IMF needs to help Ukraine ASAP in organizing reforms & financing to help the govt fund itself & avoid high inflation/currency falling.
The IMF should boldly lead the international effort and put considerable own resources on the table immediately to do so!
Continued dialogue with IMF Managing Director
@KGeorgieva
. Thanked for $1.3 billion in emergency aid. Assured that 🇺🇦 will do everything to properly pass the IMF monitoring program & move on to the new one ASAP. Emphasized the importance of the donor coordination platform for 🇺🇦.
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Team Trump apparently wants to devalue the dollar. How practical, feasible and smart is that?
My thoughts: Trump's confused approach to the dollar/FX is back.👇
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Thanks to Tim Ash, BlueBay Asset Management, for sharing his views on the Russian ruble with OMFIF. A firming ruble is not a sign of strength.
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G20 proceedings are moving forward.
G20 Finance Ministers meet in April.
It is unconscionable for G20 meetings to proceed with Russia present.
Russia should be suspended ASAP from the G20.
Ukraine envoy to Indonesia urges G20 to put Russian invasion on agenda
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I've been repeatedly asked in recent weeks whether there could be a second Plaza Accord. I'm skeptical. Here's why.
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Absolutely correct. And a default would weaken global confidence in the US dollar, diminish demand for US assets and put upward pressure on US interest rates. That would be a dumb self-inflicted wound.
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines says China and Russia would likely take advantage of a U.S. debt default to portray the U.S. as a dysfunctional, chaotic and unstable nation.
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China knows full & well that the IMF/World Bank and some others are preferred creditors.
China should stop its delaying tactics & provide debt relief to Zambia NOW. It should cooperate to make the G20 Common Framework work for Zambia and others & help Sri Lanka & Pakistan.
Zambia rejects China’s call for World Bank to join its debt restructuring
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Bravo.
Now toss Russia out of the G20!
The UK 🇬🇧 and 50+ countries staged a walk out of 🇺🇳 UN Human Rights Council as Russia started speaking today.
Lavrov’s statement was full of disinformation and did not deserve the attention of the
@UN_HRC
.
Russia is isolated and should be ashamed to sit in the UN chamber.
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UKR fights not only for its survival, but EU's war against authoritarianism & energy/food security blackmail. Stop EU foot-dragging. Disburse massive budget support ASAP.
It's also high time IMF discarded its slow approach, acted as a leader & furnished large support ASAP.
We can never match the sacrifices Ukrainians are making every day.
But we can stand with them and provide what they need – for relief, fast rehabilitation and reconstruction.
This is why we are gathered here today at the
#RecoveryOfUkraine
conference ↓
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A first rate panel today on Latam with a deep dive on the economic/financial situation in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina with Alejandro Werner, Joaquim Levy and Pablo Guidotti, along with a great group of discussants.
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Argentine & German fiscal policy are in the news. Both must tackle budget challenges to seize their destinies. 🇦🇷/Milei must slash deficits; only if so get IMF help.
🇩🇪 must fix its growth model; Karlsruhe ruling a step in reverse. My thoughts below.👇
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Thanks for continuing to highlight problems inter alia with Greek shippers undercutting the oil price cap.
US/West need to toughen sanctions and slash Russian earnings. Looking forward to a hopefully tough Biden Admin announcement.
Greece set off the Euro zone debt crisis in 2010. Over a decade and multiple bailouts later, its trade deficit is back to crisis levels, with many of the underlying issues unresolved, even as Greek shipping oligarchs are allowed to undercut the G7 cap in Brussels at every turn...
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Great news from IMF. Congrats to Ukraine, Gavin Gray and IMF Ukraine team.
Now, it’s time for the IMF to end its foot dragging and move swiftly to provide Ukraine with massive new financing, something that frankly should have happened months ago.
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The end of globalization, friend-shoring only with trusted partners, blocs, decoupling? The rhetoric on these points, including from certain US quarters as well as Davos per the FT, seems highly exaggerated, as discussed in the link below.
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My thoughts on the dollar's outlook in FX markets for the rest of 2022.
The euro is vulnerable, but otherwise don't bet on a surge.
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Need another BRICS piece? Voila!
The hyperbolic BRICS hoopla -- or China G1+10 satellites -- is over the top. While able to represent an anti-US/West symbol, BRICS lack the cohesion, unity & means to challenge existing global governance & dollar.
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IMF staff on Germany. Correctly urge use of fiscal space; this would "also help reduce large external imbalances". That's it on 🇩🇪 mega current accnt +, which WEO sees staying at 7% GDP in next 5 years.
When will IMF take global imbalances seriously?
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The global outlook for 2023 is BAD. But how bad is unclear due to huge questions. Policy-makers may talk a good game. But they don’t know the answers either. Market volatility & an unpredictable policy environment will likely predominate next year.
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Trump's tax cuts led to expanded fiscal deficits, putting upward US interest rate pressure.
His tariffs were viewed as making foreign (🇨🇳) exports to US less competitive.
These actions boosted the dollar/weakened foreign currencies.
Investors think a Trump win will mean a stronger dollar, but 40 years of data reveals the buck tends to weaken in Republican admins
Regardless, both parties are now adopting inward looking trade + economic policies, which tend to lean on a weaker dollar
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Congrats to UKR for adhering to its IMF program, despite difficult conditions. Congrats to IMF's outstanding Ukraine team.
Program success depends on foreign finance.
Shame on USA for not passing support for 🇺🇦, vital 4 🇺🇦 survival & econ stability in face of 🇷🇺barbarism.
The IMF staff and Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement on the third review of Ukraine’s EFF arrangement. The agreement, subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, would give Ukraine access to about US$880 million:
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Should Japan intervene in the FX markets? Will it? Markets are abuzz with rumors. My two cents.
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Answer: sheer stupidity.
Treasury pays the bills Congress orders. Congress shrieks that debt is going up. It then calls for default, which would trigger a global financial crisis, to show its fiscal rectitude. Go figure!
Lift the ceiling without games.
Why are US lawmakers arguing over the debt ceiling again? A guide by
@JamesPoliti
,
@EricGPlatt
and me
@FinancialTimes
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For those who missed it last week, my IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting scene setter. And thanks to the FT's Alan Beattie for highlighting this piece in today's Trade Secrets.
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The answer to Europe's woes is not a weaker Euro, a bigger current account surplus & more absorption of demand from the rest of the world. Euro members must do more to strengthen domestic demand and reforms.
PS: There's nobody else better to read on twitter than Robin Brooks!
Positioning in the FX market has swung long Dollars. What's notable is that this excludes Euro (blue), where positioning is flat, i.e. markets are agnostic if EUR/$ goes up or down. The ECB can only reflate the Euro zone with a weaker Euro & so far it has not convinced markets...
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Some reflections on the IMF and the debate over Managing Director Georgieva's future tenure.
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This wonderful chart comes from the IMF's latest External Sector Report chapter on the "global dollar cycle".
Jaewoo Lee, Danny Quah and I 👇discuss the global $$ cycle: minutes 31-35:30 & 39:30-43:30.
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A great FT Markets Insight from Robin Brooks! Well worth a read.
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Totally agree!
Argentina: (i) Dollarization is a terrible idea - last time this was tried it ended in huge devaluation that forever rules this out as a policy objective; (ii) the Peso is - even with recent devaluation - very substantially overvalued, just look at its level vs Brazil and Turkey.
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If true, good news. China shouldn't have been designated to start with. Small current account surplus/GDP; scant intervention. Yes, big bilateral surplus but economists disregard those. RMB fell in response to Trump's tariffs.
Designation was blatant/errant political act.
Confirmed: US to lift manipulator tag off China soon, per sources
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Great & important blog!
As Brad note, Sri Lanka's restructuring scenario shows debt/GDP ratio going down to 95% of GDP in 2028. Interest expense will consume half of revenues.
How is it even conceivable that the IMF can call that a sustainable situation?
A new, fairly technical piece, on a topic that I care deeply about: defining the technical parameters for a sovereign debt restructuring.
(a topic that is too important to be left solely to the IMF)
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Outstanding chart.
Much of the past heavy Treasury purchases were due to EM FX intervention, excess reserve accumulation & currency undervaluation. Treasury Dept pushed back for years against those phenomena, esp vis-a-vis China. As you say, it "isn't what it used to be".
Foreign buying of US Treasuries (red) isn't what it used to be. This often gets interpreted to mean that the US Dollar will weaken, but that's wrong. Foreigners are still buying plenty of USD-denominated assets, just not US Treasuries. Foreign demand for USD is as strong as ever.
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The IMF should welcome Milei's intention to slash Argentine fiscal deficits/stop monetary financing. But the Fund shouldn't provide one cent till Argentina actually delivers, even if that means arrears. Promises aren't good enough.👇
Argentine President-elect Javier Milei arrived in the US on Monday for a trip to New York and Washington that will include meetings with IMF and Biden administration officials
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Excellent thread.
A few others I heard: little base case expectation of systemic EM contagion; dollar strength late(r) in the game; mixed views on whether anemic China might let RMB plummet to boost demand; big concern about fin plumbing accidents.
What I learned at IMF/WB meetings
1. No consensus on monetary policy. Most policy makers want to keep hiking aggressively, most market participants want central banks to slow. Best quote I heard: "When I drive into fog, I slow down." There's massive global uncertainty. Slow down!
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Agreed. Discouraging.
LIC debt distress a serious problem. The Common Framework remains a flop.
IMF needs to speak forcefully in public to call China out. The Fund's longstanding quiet diplomacy hasn't been getting the job done.
Sort of discouraging.
It doesn't seem like Zambia and China ExIm (by far the largest Chinese creditor to Zambia, with something like $3b in exposure) have started to discuss concrete restructuring terms.
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A great honor for OMFIF/me to host today's public launch of the IMF's ESR. Tremendous thanks to Gita Gopinath, Daniel Leigh and the entire Fund team for an outstanding report and presentation, and to Cathy Mann and Daniel Gros for serving as discussants.
STARTING NOW:
@GitaGopinath
on the release of the 2020 External Sector Report (
#ESR
): “Global Imbalances and the
#COVID19
Crisis”
@OMFIF
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Thanks to the IMF's Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti for this stellar podcast on the Fund's World Economic Outlook.
The slides and podcast are at the bottom of the linked OMFIF page below.
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You're right. It took far too long for China to let RMB rise. 🇨🇳is a sovereign nation; our voice was one among many.
FWIW: I discussed my thoughts on whether US RMB diplomacy under Paulson/Geithner/Lew was a success in (2020) paper below👇& conclusion.
China's current account (b/c of lags and slow RMB adjustment) peaked in 07/08 at 10% of GDP, and true reserve accumulation reached 15% -- far too much both China and the US. So I don't grade US financial diplomacy during the pre GFC era as highly as Mark.
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Keep up the great work emphasizing that adjustment in Argentina is about doing the hard work of fiscal and monetary tightening, exchange rate liberalization and copious reforms, not highly risky "magic bullets" like dollarization.
Argentina has been shut out from global markets since the Macri inflows boom in 2016/7 (blue). What global markets want to see to bring Argentina back into the fold is slow and steady reform, in particular fiscal policy tightening. Not "supposed" magic bullets like dollarization.
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Dollar historically goes up/down cyclically reacting to US/global developments. Fell in 70s; rose in 80s till 85, falling post-Plaza; up late 90s/02; down in parts of GFC; up now.
Reserve currency status/$ dominance, even if ebbing over time, structurally well entrenched.
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You are absolutely correct. We should just eliminate the debt limit. No country, let alone that of the world's dominant currency, should threaten to default. It's irresponsible. It's also hypocritical -- Treasury is just paying the bills Congress orders it to pay.
We should eliminate the debt limit. It serves no purpose other than to empower extremists to threaten default to get their way.
@MichaelBennet
has a bill with
@brianschatz
to do that. More from
@crampell
here:
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Au contraire. My guess is Xi may not be going to the G20 due to longstanding China/India disputes & tensions, plus he now avoids question of will he meet Biden.
Not showing up is emblematic of why BRICS aren't ready for prime time, as I argue. 👇
Could be the future was decided at BRICS+ last week and there is nothing G20 can contribute to China anymore.
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Whether one agrees/not, one can see why the IMF might quietly refinance 🇦🇷 till election is over & not become a campaign piñata, despite horrid unacceptable 🇦🇷 policies.
Post-elections, 🇦🇷 should adopt/implement a tough stabilization/reform program or the IMF pull the plug!
Short-sighted measures adopted yesterday mean Argentina will remain current on IMF debt but will not get new money. The adjusted program will likely provide and request the minimum needed to roll over IMF exposure as quietly as possible until a new government takes office in Dec.
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"Biden limps to G7" way overdone. All 7 face domestic troubles. But 7 united now with greater force/purpose than in ages. US led way in mobilizing 7 against Russia, on sanctions & arming UKR. Elmau agenda rich, real work to be done, not a photo-op.
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Good post by Dan.
The US shouldn't let up one iota in supporting Ukraine.
It must stand firmly against Russia & its perpetration of war crimes, authoritarianism, contempt for human life & territorial integrity, energy blackmail & harm to food security for the world's poor.
Leftists in Congress have written to
@POTUS
urging the US support a negotiated end to the Russo-Ukraine War. The letter is a baleful counterpart to Trumpist opposition to support for Ukraine but does contain elements that reduce its damage. 1/6
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Congratulations to the IMF on its new Integrated Policy Framework (IPF). A few very general thoughts on two policy implications.
Flexible exchange rates still critical - OMFIF
IMF’s new framework shouldn’t stray far
www.omfif.org
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Surely the IMF and Milei team should discard the current failed Fernandez program and negotiate a brand new one that Milei and team owns and sets forth their goals and objectives.
IMF officials will arrive in Argentina Thursday to start negotiations with President Javier Milei’s government on the country’s $44 billion agreement
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Congrats to Michael for his continued passion in swatting down dollar demise narratives.
Giscard coined the "exorbitant privilege" nearly 60 years ago. Whether it's such a privilege is debatable, but the dollar remains dominant and the demise stories continue unabated.
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Since the 1960s few arguments in international finance have been as exciting as "the coming demise of the dollar", but these arguments seem always to founder on the same set of mistakes.
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The US best serves humanity & the globe, not by flaunting its might, but by putting forward its finest ideas and smart, world renowned & experienced individuals. David was a capstone in a long line of such individuals at the IMF. Thanks to David. May this tradition continue.
We said farewell today to
@DavidLipton
as FDMD of the Fund. He has served the institution & our 189 member countries with distinction and he leaves an outstanding legacy of achievement. He has my and all IMF staff’s great appreciation.
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I'm not a UK expert & have turned away many chances to speak on it today. But 3 general points from my experience.
1. Market intelligence should inform the timing & substance of decisions. US Treasury has a Markets Room providing real time market info to senior US officials.
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👍👍
Just like Putin 2014/Brisbane when criticized for Russian action in Crimea/Donbas, Lavrov leaves Bali early. Russia then barbarously bombs 🇺🇦.
Yet 🇧🇷🇮🇳🇨🇳 abstain in UN/fail to condemn 🇷🇺, though G20 formed to give BRICs more prominent global role.
Shame on B(R)ICs.
While world leaders are meeting at the
#G20
in Bali, Putin decides this is a good time to bomb civilians in Ukraine. The best response – the only response – is to condemn this barbarity completely. Looking at you Pres
#Xi
and
@narendramodi
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