Ohio Capital Ideas
@ohcapideas
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“It is difficult to find happiness within oneself, but it’s impossible to find it anywhere else.” - Arthur Schopenhauer
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My wife and I are late 30s only have a few million in our savings account and maybe $50 million in a brokerage account and $20 million in retirement accounts. Fortunately our home is paid off. We are thinking we’ll claim SS at 62.
Will we ever be able to retire?
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HSBC just sold a bank for a euro that they paid $10.6 billion to buy more than 20 years ago.
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I bet Chamath leaves his shopping cart in the middle of the parking lot.
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If I were a billionaire i would have the most boring, unleveraged, risk averse portfolio you could ever imagine.
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Southwest is the Wells Fargo of airlines - surviving for years on past reputation and nobody realized how much deterioration had gone on underneath the surface.
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Current portfolio. Astonishingly boring. Ready to hear your criticisms.
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@0x1337Ox1337
No, just the never ending series of extremely wealthy people writing in to ask people whether they can retire or not.
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Probably regret doing this, but current portfolio. Happy to discuss any of these. DM's open.
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I'm imagining that at some point in the late 90s someone wrote something up that said "For Microsoft's valuation to make sense today it would need to have close to a $3 trillion market cap by 2024. Good luck with that."
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If there’s one thing the pandemic has taught us, it’s that the average person is statistically illiterate.
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Always hesitate doing this, but been awhile, so here's largest positions:
1. Berkshire - 35.4%
2. Bollore / Odet - 9.1%
3. Exor - 8.2%
4. Diageo - 7.0%
5. Markel - 6.6%
6. Sura - 5.2%
7. Carriage Services - 3.8%
8. Comcast - 3.6%
9. Investor's Title - 3.6%
10. Lockheed - 3.1%
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What’s your favorite public company that can sustainably grow sales and profits by 20% a year for the next century and trades at less than 1x earnings and net working capital?
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@Joseph_Fasano_
May get mocked given I'm not a professional when it comes to art, but I've never gotten over the look in her eyes in Orphan Girl at the Cemetery by Delacroix
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Updated portfolio - not posting to make recommendations. But, I've found that connecting with others who own the same names is a huge benefit plus seeing the "you're an idiot" replies keeps me humble.
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No more gardening or watching Matlock. Grandpa died this morning. A far better person than me.
Visited my grandpa this weekend who just wanted to garden and watch Matlock.
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Someone just said (seriously) that the vaccine fatality rate is about 1 in 50. This implies 3 million deaths in the US. How can someone’s mind malfunction so completely?
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Title industry going to have a very soft 2023, but if $ITIC drops below book value of ~$128 in the coming months, seems like one to just buy and put away for a decade.
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Ordered an old fashioned tonight and it tasted weird. Asked the bartender what bourbon she used and she said Jack Daniel’s.
I’m thinking of calling the police.
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After my grandpa died last year, I took my grandmas suitcase. She was from Germany and used the suitcase to travel here. Inside I found an old roll of Kodak film, so I got it developed and just got them back. Turns out it was her wedding photos, which I thought was pretty cool.
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I don’t understand the cynicism towards tax advantaged retirement accounts that I’m seeing more and more of. For most everyone, regularly contributing to an IRA or 401K is among the smartest things they can do regularly throughout their working lives.
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Must be referring to Kroger and those obscene 2% operating margins.
You know who doesn’t pay a dividend or buy back shares and reinvests all of its cash flow? Amazon.
Giant grocery store chains force high food prices onto American families while rewarding executives & investors with lavish bonuses and stock buybacks. I'm demanding they answer for putting corporate profits over consumers and workers during the pandemic.
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The more I learn about this Chamath guy, the less I like him
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Puts you a smidge over 1.3x book right now. Call me a cultist, but $BRK was around fair value a few months ago and is cheap once again.
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I’ve seen many people over the years quote a P/E multiple for $BRK.B. Of course, the reported multiple for $BRK.B is useless since investment gains and losses over short periods of time tell you little about the genuine earnings power of their businesses.
1/x
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Turning 39 tomorrow and it’s actually incredibly depressing to know that my life expectancy is now fewer years than I’ve lived.
I know what you’re thinking and the answer is yes, I’m incredibly fun at parties.
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Brooks is such a fascinating case study of how specializing can make you successful vs. being all things to all people. Did ~$1.2B in sales last year and still probably lot of room to grow in apparel/accessories. Bet it’s worth $4B-$5B now.
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I imagine it must be written into $SBUX employment agreements that if the stock declines more than 20% Howard Schulz will fire you and take his job back.
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I know Buffett doesn't need the cash and doesn't want to pay the taxes, but it's hard for me to believe he's not at least considering trimming the $AAPL position here.
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Really don't like being negative at the expense of anyone, but this is from an article on $BRK.A $BRK.B that came out recently. What in the world??
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Value investors waiting for Costco to fall to 20x earnings
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Rough estimate of $EXO.MI current net asset value of $115. That means Exor shares are offering ~45% discount to net asset value right now.
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I don’t understand the $KO and $GOOG comparisons I’ve seen lately, showing the two multiples as if they make no sense. The informed investor in both companies doesn’t have the same expectations.
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The older I get, the more I wonder whether there’s much correlation between people who can interview well and people who are good for the jobs you hire them for.
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@ChrisBloomstran
Pretty sure if a company buys back 5% of its beginning of year shares outstanding each year for 20 years you will not become the sole shareholder after 20 years.
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How about Berkshire buying $MKL (seems to be ~$550 million)
Looks like Warren Buffett has been busy buying stock last quarter.
Berkshire Hathaway initiated new positions in several companies in Q1 2022:
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IKEA should have a 1-10 rating on everything they sell that tells you how hard it is to assemble.
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@SarahTheHaider
Sometimes when an answer is problematic, it’s easier to pretend that the question is
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Updated port. Again, not that you should take recs from me if I made them, but these aren't that anyways. Owning something doesn't mean I'd buy today. Post solely for sake of connecting with others who may already own a name. Complaints can be sent via DM to
@WaterworldCapi1
.
Updated portfolio - not posting to make recommendations. But, I've found that connecting with others who own the same names is a huge benefit plus seeing the "you're an idiot" replies keeps me humble.
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People have to stop doing this
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I don’t know, if $NFLX opens tomorrow where it’s trading after hours, it feels like one of those “buy it here and just put it away” moments
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Sitting in an Irish pub in Colombia watching the Celtics game. This is peak globalization.
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Thanks to
@IgnoreNarrative
for a great conversation. Super smart and cool guy. Mike, let’s do it again sometime soon.
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Let’s be honest, Buffett’s historic letters were amazing, but at this point we’d be better off reading a letter from Greg Abel about subsidiary performance.
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$100,000. He is 92 years old and he has spent decades recording what he has to teach.
$100,000 or a weekend shadowing Warren Buffett?
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I don't care what the WSJ says. Back down at $137 $DEO is cheap. People perpetually understate the value of companies that can grow modestly faster than the market but for extremely long periods of time and at high ROIC's.
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Appears that Gayners annual letter was released this afternoon. $MKL
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Quick note on $BOL.PA $ODET.PA
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I’m surprised that at this point Combs and Weschler are still managing less than 10% of Berkshires portfolio. I will say, though, if you exclude $AAPL, $BAC, $AXP, and $KO it’s a meaningful portion of the remainder.
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I think just about everyone has seen this clip but it’s one of the happiest videos I’ve watched.
Nicholas Winton saved 669 children from the Nazis. His efforts went unrecognized for 50 years. Then in 1988, while sitting among a TV audience, he suddenly found himself surrounded by the kids he’d saved, now adults.
Only amid darkness do we see the stars.
#HolocaustMemorialDay
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My wife will spend 5 minutes driving through a parking lot to get a closer space that saves us 30 seconds of walking.
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Never seen Homeland until now. It’s so cool to discover a series you missed.
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I believe it was disclosed for the first time today that $BRK paid $2.6B for the remaining 20% of Pilot. That means across all 3 tranches, they paid $13.6B for all of Pilot.
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If Europe continues getting beat up, this one has to go on the watch list at least
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Seeing $COST get crushed just makes me want to reflexively buy it despite it still be at around 33x earnings. Maybe time for a tracking position.
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@ChrisBloomstran
While I’m always tempted to answer Berkshire (a la Standard Oil I think there’s a good chance remnants could exist for a century or two), gold seems like the only reasonable answer. Over 246 years, the risk of default and govt collapse of any country is far from negligible.
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Legend. He’s a big reason for Bob Igers success as well.
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There’s no question that $BABA is extremely cheap. I just feel like investing in China now requires some understanding of the ins and outs of Chinese politics and the local market. Someone like Li Lu has this - I’m humble enough to say that I do not.
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Who is taking this picture?
You know that photo of the construction workers having lunch on the unfinished Empire State Building in 1932?
Here's the photographer Charles Ebbets taking that photo.
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Gayner on $MKL call: "Additionally, our rate of repurchases was higher in the first half of 2023 than any other period. It's also a matter of public record that in five of the last six quarters I’ve personally taken money out of my pocket to purchase some Markel Group shares."
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If I were a Russian tycoon I would insist on always staying on the first floor of hotels
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Does anybody think $UBER actually has a bright future? Don’t think so, but this seems to be the overwhelming consensus.
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Everybody always trying to guess what Berkshire will buy next and always failing, but isn't $MMM exactly the type of pitch that Buffett likes to swing at?
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Looks like BVPS increased to ~$310k per A share. Puts P/B at 1.39x. $BRK.A $BRK.B
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If global net worth were entirely invested in bitcoin a year ago, we would be $1,600 trillion richer as a world.
We are all suckers for continuing to produce goods and services.
Few understand this.
if Warren Buffett had invested his entire net worth in bitcoin in 2009, he‘d be worth $719 trillion today
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Why are Dems so anti stock buyback? I don’t quite understand. Why could an oil company pay all their profits as dividends and lease federal land but not repurchase stock?
In case you’re curious about why this man is so angry with me, it may be because I introduced an amendment to a GOP bill that would prohibit oil and gas companies who engage in stock buybacks from leasing federal lands.
Seems as though I hit a nerve! 😇
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Belechick is now 82-97 coaching in his career without Brady. 2-8 this season. Was Belechick pretty much an average coach all these years?
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Happened to see that Ken Burns is slated to release a Benjamin Franklin documentary next year. Should be pretty good.
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$MKL had a decent quarter, good investment and Ventures results. Underwriting trends are a little worrisome. Bought back another $80m in stock and BV at $984. P/B = 1.33x. It's not as cheap as $FFH.TO, but it's certainly not expensive at all.
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Believe it or not, I started doing work on $DHR yesterday thinking that it was looking attractive. May have missed an opportunity (although what's 10% in the grand scheme of things?)
But, man, what a beast of a company.
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I’ll forever admire Buffett and Munger, but I have no idea what the point of this interview is.
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This is the first time in a couple years that $BRK.B hasn’t seemed obviously cheap to me. I mean, it’s probably close to fair value, just not much cheaper than the market.
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Some more organizing (and book buying) to be done…but pretty happy how this turned out.
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Dear God, I hope not. If they can’t find anything better than buying $T, then it really is time for Berkshire to just pay a dividend.
The rumor that Berkshire Hathaway could be acquiring a large investment position in $T makes alot of sense. Shares out of favor, large current dividend, John Malone factor (Warren admires him!), etc.
Regardless, my Gnome hears a whale is accumulating the name.
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Checking in on $EXO.AS: shares up 16% YTD in euros and 18% in USD, but that looks to be about the same as NAV. Updating the listed investments, estimating net divs received, and the shares repurchased so far this year and the discount is still about 44%.
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$KHC was making up it's own numbers, and the financials they published were the best they could come up with?
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Just finished 30 for 30 on Lance Armstrong and it's very good. Didn't realize that he's still worth $50m. Would you be OK with everyone in the world thinking you're a schmuck if you had $50m? Believe or not, I wouldn't take that deal. Our name is the most valuable thing we own.
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Ohio is one of the great places of the world to live.
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