Brad
@notbadbradley
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Joined May 2021
Step 1 of making it in this game is understanding that individual agents will provide little to no worthwhile help on the workings of the market. This is why Technicals, Ratios and Charles Gave’s Four Quadrants work. They are showing you what the market is doing.
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As Zuck said about Meta's superintelligence team: "We don't even give them deadlines." AI researchers are paid big bucks to NOT see any walls ahead.
For those who still don't get it: - Researchers working at the frontier labs are genuinely convinced that transformative AI is coming. - They spend their time worrying about the social/political consequences of transformative AI, not the "AI bubble". - Recursive
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The forcing function is energy and both oil and natural gas are muted. Highly doubt this is the end.
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Alternative view: we broke out a 100 year base because the rules have changed.
Looks like we are entering the final phase of the gold to oil ratio blowout.
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Text-to-video generation like Sora requires approximately 1,000 times more energy than text generation queries.
My favorite trend in the Sora app is these body cam footage videos This clip with Spongebob hit 1M+ TikTok views! 🤯 I built a workflow to remove the Sora 2 watermarks👇
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Interesting👇
1/ Everyone’s hyped on the AI gold rush, with trillions pouring into data centers. But here’s my contrarian take: surging natural gas prices are about to slam the brakes on this whole build-out.
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Lyall on AI: They are most useful for people where “approximately right” answers are good enough (such as stock research), and where a knowledgeable operator with critical thinking can probe and question answers and independently verify important claims
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During the Great Depression, mainline churches w/ large budgets & integrated theology struggled, while Pentecostalism, w/ its supernatural focus & tight community, thrived. In crises, religions offering direct, emotional, & supernatural control gain a competitive edge.
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Fully believe this will happen eventually. But highly doubt the path there is a straight forward as Matthew proposes
Then, we acknowledge UAPs are NHI, we have figured out some breakthrough tech, just as AGI kicks growth into turbo-mode and new institutions are formed to catalyze a revolutionary reconception of the possibility space for the light of consciousness embodied in human civilization.
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If you don’t already have one foot out the door you not gonna make it
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5/ These aren’t traditional assets with 20-30yr lifecycles. AI tech obsolesces in 3-5yrs because GPUs evolve too fast. CapEx is $400B this year, but revenues? Just $15-20B. Breakeven needs $320-480B/year like @hkuppy points out
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4/ The math is brutal. Baseline Henry Hub at $3.20/MMBtu. A 100% spike to $6.40? Electricity jumps 40% to $119/MWh. That adds $25M/year to a single facility’s OpEx. For the 6GW US build-out in 2025 (60 x 100MW sites), that’s an extra $1.5B annually.
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3/ Enter natural gas: the US grid’s kingpin. It powers 42% of electricity and sets marginal prices in most markets. Renewables are cheap on paper (low LCOE), but intermittent—gas fills the gaps. More AI demand = more gas peakers online = prices skyrocket via economic dispatch.
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2/ First, AI data centers are power vampires. A single 100MW hyperscale facility guzzles ~745,000 MWh/year—enough to charge 400k EVs. Power isn’t just a bill; it’s 30-60% of OpEx. At baseline $85/MWh, that’s $63M/year in electricity alone.
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1/ Everyone’s hyped on the AI gold rush, with trillions pouring into data centers. But here’s my contrarian take: surging natural gas prices are about to slam the brakes on this whole build-out.
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Have to give David Hunter credit where it’s due. His forecast has been playing out to a tee…
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