Some personal news. Today, I’m leaving The Atlantic after almost 17 years and moving my writing to Substack. It would be convenient, for the purposes of crafting an exciting departure announcement, to have a dramatic exit story: a fight, a grievance, a shouting match with an

In his latest memo, @HowardMarksBook addresses the question, “Is there a bubble in AI?” He assesses the current landscape, drawing parallels to history and considering whether investors’ current enthusiasm is merited or irrational. #OaktreeInsights Read:

What the WH claims its economic policy is all about: Stop listening to those egghead free-trade globalists, we're doing protectionism for the national interest! What our AI policy actually is: Stop worrying about the national interest, we’re doing free-trade globalism! What

There's zero upside for the US, sorry. The most we can hope is that China's boomer leadership blocks them for us, but I'm not betting on it. At minimum Chinese chip makers will buy H200s to strip them for HBM3E to reverse engineer and put into Huawei chips.

YUUUGE paper. While for athletes Z1-Z2 may be beneficial (they saturate high intensity), for vanilla citizens v. high intensity is >>beneficial, 1 min Z3+> 4 min of Z2, up to 9 for T2 diabetes. The methodology is superior because they use accelerometers not self-reporting. 1/n

Patrick Mahomes is historically amazing, and absurdly clutch, and his offensive weapons have degraded, and the team's identity has shifted toward defense in the last few years. It's also just a mathematical fact that in his first 5 seasons, Mahomes had a QB rating of 106 and

I think I assume Vegas and NYC would dominate

Kind of wild to me that 1) the #1 highest grossing independent restaurant in the US that isn’t located in Florida is Old Ebbitt’s Grill in Washington DC 2) the top 3 are in Florida

Baumol: "Why have services like education and healthcare become so expensive across the rich world? Because the people performing these services reside in affluent societies and dynamic economies where they can rightly command a high wage." https://t.co/0CX8AeNHYC

between ai and wfh, people may never ask their colleagues stuff again

https://t.co/vwK5g31jxM

The Millennial Consumer Subsidy was nice for urban 20somethings in the 2010s — Uber, DoorDash, Spotify, delivery apps, etc operating without net profit for a whole decade so yuppies could benefit from unprofitably low prices— but the AI Consumer Subsidy makes the MCS look tiny

Screenshot 1: Me, on 11/11, with a mordant prediction that the logic of gambling media wouldn’t stop with sports, and eventually cable news would be brought to you by online casinos to encourage betting on politics Screenshot 2: CNN, on 12/3, saying “yeah sweet let’s do that”

The full piece by @rosehorowitch https://t.co/DjJfFy6yCi

This is a great piece with some mind-boggling statistics. - At Brown and Harvard, more than 20% of undergraduates are registered as disabled - At Amherst: more than 30 percent - At Stanford: nearly 40 percent Soon, many of these schools "may have more students receiving

Incredible letter in @thetimes

there’s a lot of juice left in the idea of the odysseus pact. as technological temptations grow, we will need to make more and more baroque compacts with machines that tie us to masts so we can live our best lives. of course, you must choose to make these compacts freely. the

Liberation day was so crazy, I was filming cnbc segments with my iPhone for the historical record

I think both these statements are objectively true. 1. The 2030s are going to represent a very significant break from the 2020s in terms of technological change 2. The way we implement that technological change has a huge huge huge distribution of good-versus-bad outcomes.

The 2030 vs 2020 progression in Waymo/robotaxis, EV’s, renewables/batteries, and AI even in conservative scenarios feels more amazing technologically than any other decade in my lifetime, and I wouldn’t call myself an idealistic futurist.

Deep down, I think everybody — literally everybody; even the health-data-neurotics; even Bryan — knows that something doesn’t … feel … right … about instructing people to eat like Oura-optimizing monks when surrounded by their friends and family during the one annual secular