Colin Robertson
@mortgagetruth
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Wholesale AE in early 2000s. Commentary on mortgage/real estate/housing market since 2006 @
Los Angeles, CA
Joined December 2006
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Everyone seems to be worked up about the potential real estate agent commission changes.
But in practice, my guess is most listing agents will still charge the usual 2.5%, perhaps a tad less.
And if home sellers actually want to sell, they'll likely still offer to pay the…
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Home builders and their in-house mortgage lenders are having a moment.
PulteGroup, the nation's 3rd largest builder, just announced a capture rate of 84% in Q1, meaning most home buyers are opting to use their captive lender.
Simply put, it's almost impossible for outside…
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Survey: 82% of recent home buyers were assured they could "buy now and refinance later."
They most often heard this from their loan officer (63%) and/or their real estate agent (60%).
13% say they won't be able to keep making payments w/o a refi.
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Foreclosure Halted for VA Loan Holders Until June 2024
There will be no foreclosures on borrowers with VA loans through May 31st, 2024.
The move was made after an investigation alleged thousands of VA loan holders were at risk of foreclosure.
It stems from the expiration of…
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My friend has a 7/1 ARM that is about to reset. It has been nearly 84 months since he got his mortgage.
A year ago, he was waiting for rates to come down before refinancing.
Last week he got refi quotes in the 7s and 8s, and that was before this latest leg higher.
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'Homebuyer conundrum: If mortgage rates fall, bidding wars will follow, expert says'
We went from "housing crash in 2024" to "bidding wars in 2024," in the matter of a month.
Simply b/c the 30-year fixed hit 8% in October and then retreated back to the low-7% range.
And it…
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@thechosenberg
If you were 9 years old in 2008, you had ample time to buy up until 2021, at age 22.
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Fannie Mae: "We now expect the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate to average 6.6 percent in 2024 and 6.2 percent in 2025, upgrades of four-tenths and five-tenths, respectively."
Guess that sub-6% mortgage rate will have to wait.
Higher for longer until the data says otherwise.
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Republic Bank out of Philadelphia failed today, the latest FDIC failure going back to November.
And it was apparently b/c of its mortgage biz, which like First Republic Bank, relied upon growing its "jumbo residential mortgage portfolio at below-market interest rates."
Per a…
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For the mortgage rate lock-in deniers out there.
Coincidence? Or other factors?
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I've found that real estate agents are very hesitant to negotiate their fee. So much so that it's often a non-starter unless you are very persistent and aggressive.
Recently asked two agent friends and they said the same.
In other words, the fee often ISN'T negotiable.
People keep on saying they weren’t given the opportunity to negotiate a fee because an agent/agents refused to accept the fee offered.
Negotiation, at its roots, means two sides try to come to a MUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE agreement.
They were definitely given the chance to…
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Owning a home is awesome.
Annually, the average homeowner spends:
- $4,392 on maintenance and repairs
- $3,784 on renovations and improvements
- $5,362 on utilities
- $2,904 on property taxes
- $1,516 on homeowners insurance
Translates to $538,740 over a 30-year loan term.
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"If you wait for interest rates to come down by another point, I don't think you'll gain. I think you'll wind up paying more because I wouldn't be surprised if real estate went up by another 8 or 10% if interest rates come down." - Barbara Corcoran on Fox News
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We are back to the "you better hurry up and buy a home before mortgage rates drop" thesis.
Pretty crazy since this was a thing about a year ago.
Then mortgage rates went up instead of down and you didn't hear much about it.
But there's an expectation once again that mortgage…
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Rocket Mortgage originated $78.7 billion in mortgage loans during 2023, compared to $133B in 2022.
Volume in Q4 was $17B, down from $19B a year earlier.
Crosstown rival United Wholesale Mortgage (
@UWMlending
), which calls itself the
#1
overall mortgage lender, will report on…
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🗞️Another mortgage lender calling it quits.
People’s Bank of Commerce has made the strategic business decision to exit residential mortgage lending effective Nov. 1st.
Noted 70%+ of mortgages now provided by nonbanks and outlook for [low] demand factored into decision.
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Friend in San Antonio, TX sent this.
CA to TX migration is complicated.
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Another mortgage lender going out of business.
This time Homestar Financial, which apparently had 184 loan officers across 45 branches.
Funded over $10 billion over the past five years and $2.4 billion last year.
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Is 'rent out and rent' the new 'rent out and buy'?
Which was previously 'sell and buy'?
Some homeowners are now keeping their properties, but renting them out and then renting larger homes.
This way they keep their low-rate mortgage and can afford a more suitable place to…
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Yesterday, Fannie Mae told us not to expect a sub-6% mortgage rate anytime soon.
Today, Freddie Mac said: "We forecast mortgage rates to stay above 6.5% through this quarter and next."
In other words, low mortgage rates won't be a feature of the spring home buying season.
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Just went to a friend’s house w/ the wife.
They purchased it a couple months ago.
On the drive home she asked what I thought they paid.
I said $475k, she said $715k. Oops.
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Mortgage rates are now about 150 bps below levels seen in late October.
While everyone is rejoicing, you know who probably isn't very happy?
Home buyers who paid discount points to get a rate of 6.99%.
If rates keep falling they'll likely have to eat that upfront cost.
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I was thinking about Freddie Mac's proposal to purchase closed-end second mortgages on properties for which it already holds the first mortgage.
They're basically communicating that these borrowers are locked-in to their mortgages and won't be touching them anytime soon.
As…
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It’s now CHEAPER to rent than buy in all 50 of the top metros nationwide, per Bankrate.
The typical monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home ($412,778 per Redfin) is $2,703.
Meanwhile, the typical monthly rent is $1,979 as of February, a whopping 36.6% difference.
In…
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This is crazy.
And explains why there are bills in both the U.S. House of Representatives (H.R. 4198) and the U.S. Senate (S. 3502) to amend the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA).
Trigger leads have gotten out of control and credit bureaus need to do more to protect consumers.
On Feb 12 I applied for a mortgage. This has been the state of my phone the last 3 days.
How did we get here. I feel like I'm being stalked.
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@texasrunnerDFW
Isn't Chicago cheaper than Phoenix and Dallas?
Per Redfin:
Chicago median home price: $360k
Phoenix median home price: $440k
Dallas median home price: $454k
So I assume the "tipping point" was freezing temps, which arguably aren't much worse than humidity or 110F daily.
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I'm beginning to get worried with all the doomers now backing off their housing crash predictions for 2024.
Think we're screwed now.
This is realistic, especially if we get a no landing/no recession scenario
If we do have a recession I think the nationwide drop will be closer to 5%, but keep in mind that means some regions may be flat or up, while others are down 10%
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This just in from Freddie Mac:
"With the current stance of monetary policy holding steady, we expect mortgage rates to move sideways, remaining above 6.5% through this quarter and drifting down to about 6% by year end."
This echoes Fannie Mae's call of a 5.9% 30-year by Q4.
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Top 10 Mortgage Lenders of 2023:
1. UWM (⬆️1)
2. Rocket Mortgage (⬇️1)
3. Chase (⬆️1)
4. Wells Fargo (⬇️1)
5. CrossCountry Mortgage (new)
6. Bank of America (⬆️1)
7. Fairway Independent (new)
8. U.S. Bank (⬇️2)
9. DHI Mortgage (new)
10. loanDepot (⬇️2)
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BREAKING: 'Half a million homeowners expect that they will miss mortgage payment in next six months'
Roughly 4% of mortgage-holders, per a new survey from Eligible AI.
Yet another reason why the 30-year fixed in the USA is unrivaled. And this headline is from the UK.
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I went to the Super Bowl in 2012 when a nosebleed seat was roughly $900.
Now it’s about 10X the price just one decade later.
This isn’t just inflation. This is madness. And it’s not worth it.
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Even if they do, most will carry on b/c they can easily afford the payment w/ their 2-4% 30-yr fixed and comparable rent is often much more expensive.
And even with 40% downside many would still be above water.
A lot different than 2008 when it was often much cheaper to just…
Everyone is going to figure out their homes are 40% overpriced all at once again aren't they.
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@GRomePow
Non-QM lending. And with massive down payments. You could arguably worry more about the 580 score 3.5% down FHA stuff, which is much more widely available.
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loanDepot funded $6.1B in home loans during Q3, down from $6.3B in Q2 and $9.8B a year ago.
Loan origination volume through first nine months of 2023 was $17.3B versus $47.4B in same period last year.
They expect another $4 to $6 billion in Q4.
It's rough out there...
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Guild Mortgage has acquired Academy Mortgage. This is one of the bigger mortgage mergers in recent history.
Academy funded roughly $5.6B in 2023, while Guild funded $11.4B through Q3 of 2023.
Combined company will be 8th largest nonbank retail mortgage lender in the country.
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About that 'silver tsunami'...
New Fannie Mae survey of homeowners aged 60+:
- 56% said they will never sell their home
- 27% said they might sell at some point
- only 17% said they have already sold or plan to sell
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@theRealKiyosaki
If everyone is champing at the bit ready to buy when values tank, we aren’t there yet. Not even close.
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2024 Mortgage and Real Estate Predictions: Lower Rates and Falling Home Prices?
1. Mortgage rates will drop below 6% (maybe even 5%)
2. Homeowners will refinance their mortgages again
3. Mortgage rate lock-in will be less of a thing
4. For-sale inventory will remain very limited…
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@NipseyHoussle
I think this speaks more to American life today. Very few people get to know their neighbor, go outside, put down their phone. Nothing to do with real estate.
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Flagstar Bank parent New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is under a lot of pressure.
Stock down nearly 50% in the past week.
Flagstar is a top-15 mortgage lender nationally and top-5 wholesale mortgage lender.
What happens if NYCB fails?
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Madison, WI-based Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation has shuttered its wholesale lending division.
Will focus entirely on retail loan origination moving forward. No longer working w/ mortgage brokers.
Fairways refers to itself as the
#2
retail mortgage lender overall.
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"The high mortgage rates locking you out of the housing market aren’t going away, top economist says. ‘Everybody should get used to 5.5% to 6%’"
I think people are cool w/ rates in the 5-6% range.
And we can thank those 8% mortgage rates for that.
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Welp, here's another one.
Third time today I've had to tell everyone Wells Fargo stopped offering HELOCs ~3 years ago.
Notice the Wayback Machine date in the top right of the screenshot? It's now nearly January 2024.
Breaking...if you consider breaking news 36 months old.
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Fannie Mae has updated its mortgage rate forecast for 2024.
Expects 30-year fixed to end year below 6%.
Nearly a .75% pricing improvement.
Previous forecast (December):
Q1: 7.0%
Q2: 6.8%
Q3: 6.6%
Q4: 6.5%
Current forecast (January):
Q1: 6.4%
Q2: 6.2%
Q3: 6.0%
Q4: 5.8%
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Pretty incredible how well home prices have held up over the past couple years.
Considering the 30-year fixed rose from 3% to over 8% during that time, you'd expect a crash.
Then you realize mortgage rates don't dictate prices, available supply and strength of the economy do.
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@GRomePow
There isn't a defined negative correlation between mortgage rates and home prices.
Both have risen together.
The recent massive increase in rates obviously put pressure on home prices, but pretty soft decline considering the doubling in rates.
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Another mortgage lender is shutting its doors due to a lack of loan application volume.
Atlanta-based Crescent Mortgage Co. will close, lay off 65 employees.
Founded in 1993, originally a wholesale lender for community banks in Southeastern U.S.
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The housing bubble argument du jour is that short-term rentals (STRs) will sink the market when operators are forced to sell en masse.
When they sell, or get foreclosed on, the average Joe will also see their property value fall in price.
It's logical. More supply, especially…
@MrAwsumb
@mortgagereels
@mortgagetruth
@m3_melody
@MacroEdgeRes
This is my concern. This time they have done a similar thing with STRs, highly leveraged in many cases and based on nightly rates that are not sustainable. New STR restrictions are forcing people to sell and others will have to due to top income projections not actualized.
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@ChristineDolik
We outlawed this stuff after housing crisis in early 2000s. Canada did not get the memo.
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Why does it matter what your neighbor paid for their home?
That’s their business. If you’re harboring resentment you need to get out and live your life more.
I’d focus more on how they are as a human rather than what their mortgage payment is.
This is going to breed resentment.
Picture a 35-year-old couple, 2nd baby just born, can't keep waiting for interest rates to decline. They're in at $2,843 per month. Next door neighbor, also 35, also 2 kids, same household income, house looks just like theirs, in for $1,400.
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Zillow: New listings increased 20.3% month-over-month in February, the largest monthly gain since at least 2018.
The monthly gain in new listings surpassed other recent increases "by a significant margin."
Overall, new listings are 20.8% higher than this time last year.
Total…
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@rohindhar
I never understood the cleaning fee and asking the guest to clean it before they leave.
Personally think those fees should all be built into the ABNB rate.
Imagine a hotel charging the nightly rate, resort fee, and cleaning fee. And asking you to clean before you check out.
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This is why the Fed needs lower mortgage rates.
Without them, their MBS runoff is a trickle.
No home sales, no refinances, no prepayments.
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Per Redfin, 38% of homeowners don’t believe they could afford to buy their own home if purchasing it today.
Even if you could afford it, WOULD you buy your home at its current value at today's mortgage rate?
According to RedFin
• Over 38% of homeowners in the US don't think they could afford to buy their home if they were to buy it today
• Nearly 40% of U.S. renters don’t believe they’ll ever own a home, up from 27% last year
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Now that mortgage rates have surged again, I'm throwing this back out there.
Are we as HIGH as we can go? Or are we going to beat that 8.64% average seen in the year 2000?
The 30-year fixed hit 8.64% during the week of May 19th, 2000, its current 21st century high, per Freddie Mac.
Will that be tested or does this mean there's light at the end of the tunnel?
#mortgagerates
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Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2024?
I've compiled a list of the latest mortgage rate predictions from the MBA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, NAR, Zillow, Redfin, Realtor, along with my own take.
Most expect mortgage rates to moderate in 2024 as inflation continues to cool.
Many…
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@texasrunnerDFW
Here's the chart from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®) released March 28th, 2023.
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Honest question: Do we still need for sale signs in real estate?
Other than an agent advertising their name/brokerage, what's the point?
How many buyers stumble upon a property because of the sign?
Isn't Redfin/Zillow/etc. good enough in this day and age?
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When is an appropriate time to warn people that mortgage rates could bounce higher?
...or should we just keep celebrating? 🤔
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Black Knight: 90% of those who refinanced in August raised their mortgage rate.
Average rate increase was +2.34 percentage points.
Those doing cash-out refis tend to have lower credit scores, lower balances, and/or are withdrawing larger amounts of equity.
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@KobeissiLetter
Mortgage rate lock-in is just one piece.
Underbuilding for a decade is the main factor, combined with the millions of Americans who hit peak first-time home buyer age.
Many sellers are buyers so inventory isn’t necessarily much different.
Just fewer transactions.
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@ThinkAppraiser
The issue in early 2000s was homes were overvalued but kept selling b/c of stated income and no doc UW. Today that’s not the case so you just have much lower sales volume. It’s not to say affordability is any better, but at least you have to qualify for a mortgage these days.
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@roblabonne
I feel like there are too many breweries now. Too much choice. Overwhelming. Lot of old stuff sitting on shelves.
And on top of that beer is kind of out right now.
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Marry the house, date the rate?
70% of those who got an adjustable-rate mortgage over the past decade regret it, according to a survey from Point.
The ARM share rose from 6% of mortgage apps in Jan. 2021 to 25% in Nov. 2022.
All eyes on 2025 to see if lower rates materialize.
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Home builders are now advertising adjustable-rate mortgage deals.
Might be easier (cheaper) than offering those massive fixed rate buydowns as mortgage rates approach 8%.
And the borrower can still be qualified at the lower rate.
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Fannie Mae is still predicting a sub-6% 30-year fixed by the end of 2024.
Despite a recent uptick, they only adjusted their rate predictions by a tenth of a percent.
February forecast:
Q1: 6.5%
Q2: 6.3%
Q3: 6.1%
Q4: 5.9%
January forecast:
Q1: 6.4%
Q2: 6.2%
Q3: 6.0%
Q4: 5.8%
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Lately, everyone has been highlighting the huge payment jump when mortgage rates increase.
But the opposite is also true. You save more money when refinancing a higher-rate mortgage to a lower rate.
Imagine a homeowner w/ a $500k loan amount...
Going from an 8% mortgage rate…
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Have we moved to the marry the house, *settle for the rate* stage of the cycle?
Per Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed surpassed 7% this week for the first time in 2024.
Many had hoped/predicted rates would be closer to 6.5% by now and drifting lower.
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@SacAppraiser
I don't understand why some housing pundits don't believe mortgage rate lock-in is real. It's evident in the data and in countless anecdotes.
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Fannie Mae has capitulated to the higher for longer narrative.
However, they don't seem to expect mortgage rates to go any HIGHER from here. Nor do they expect them to remain at these levels too much LONGER.
"While we still expect economic growth and inflation to moderate…
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@NipseyHoussle
The more you see this, the higher the odds it will eventually stop. And it won't be pretty.
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The 30-year fixed mortgage currently averages 6.77%, per Freddie Mac.
But NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun says it “is unlikely to go up to 7%.”
“We’ll very likely see weekly bounces, but I think the average rate will be closer to 6% by the end of the year.”
At this…
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We went from 'the housing market is dead' to 'feeding frenzy' in about a month.
"Buyers needing a home in 2024 who have been frustrated by their search so far should be prepared to pounce in January before the crowd catches on."
All b/c mortgage rates may return to 6%...🤗
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A new 12-month asset verification report can validate income, employment, and assets in one step.
And even consider an applicant's positive rent history if they have limited/no credit history.
Goes live March 29, 2024 for those using Fannie Mae's Desktop Underwriter (DU).
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I feel like we’re going to see another wave of mortgage layoffs/closures now that ‘higher for longer’ is setting in.
🗞️Another mortgage lender calling it quits.
People’s Bank of Commerce has made the strategic business decision to exit residential mortgage lending effective Nov. 1st.
Noted 70%+ of mortgages now provided by nonbanks and outlook for [low] demand factored into decision.
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@KobeissiLetter
You mean buying a home today has become a luxury.
Many millions of existing homeowners in very cheap.
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Citizens Bank to exit wholesale mortgage lending
Its subsidiary, Franklin American Mortgage Company, was the nation’s largest bank-owned wholesale lender.
Cited "persistent market challenges, including intense competition and elevated interest rates."
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This morning, United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), the nation's largest mortgage lender, celebrated the mortgage broker share hitting its highest point in 15 years.
UWM operates solely via the wholesale channel, yet still managed to become the
#1
mortgage lender in America with…
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@JohnWake
Question is were they making out like bandits during the pandemic and now just doing OK. Or do they need that pumped-up revenue to survive?
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New FHA rules allow borrowers to use accessory dwelling unit (ADU) income to qualify for a home loan.
Even if the property doesn’t have an ADU, you can use estimated rental income for a proposed ADU to qualify for an FHA loan. 👀
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Who thinks mortgage rates will hit 7% again before falling below 6%?
I expect the 30-year fixed to dip into the 5% range by Q4, but wouldn't be surprised to see some bumps higher along the way.
Tomorrow's CPI report could even push us close to 7% if inflation comes in hot.
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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) continues to forecast a 6%+ 30-year fixed for the entirety of 2024.
Joins Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 'higher for longer' camp.
Last September, they expected a 30-year fixed of 5.5% by Q3 2024.
Those sub-6% rates now pushed to 2025.
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@NipseyHoussle
In 2008 it was this same story but they had an adjustable-rate mortgage that was about to reset and negative equity of $100k.
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Just spoke to a friend of mine who was a loan processor (and also a loan officer) for decades.
Said she got laid off last year but was able to find a new job outside the mortgage industry.
Told me she has never been happier.
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@ThinkAppraiser
675? That's decidedly below average, if not bordering on bad. Might need to launch a competitor called Prime.
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@texasrunnerDFW
This is a good thing. Inventory has been too low for too long.
With more homes on the market and lower interest rates, prices should soften and boost affordability.
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As expected, UWM finished 2023 as the nation's top mortgage lender, and by a wide margin.
Company originated $108.3 billion in home loans during 2023, down slightly from $127.3 billion in 2022.
A whopping $93.9 billion of it was home purchase loans.
Rocket Mortgage originated $78.7 billion in mortgage loans during 2023, compared to $133B in 2022.
Volume in Q4 was $17B, down from $19B a year earlier.
Crosstown rival United Wholesale Mortgage (
@UWMlending
), which calls itself the
#1
overall mortgage lender, will report on…
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A reminder that it's NEVER EASY when it comes to mortgage rates.
It looks like we're going back to a 7%+ 30-year fixed today, at least by
@mortgagenewsmnd
measure.
This time you can blame Fed chair Powell for his remarks on 60 minutes, hinting that cuts might be harder to come…
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