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Melody Wright Profile
Melody Wright

@m3_melody

Followers
21,755
Following
624
Media
933
Statuses
13,121

Strategist, Writer, Technologist, GFC 1 Survivor. Tweets about housing, mortgage finance, commercial real estate, macro and technology. Not investment advice.

Joined February 2021
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
20 days
Abandoned in Austin Existing Homes New Home Construction Commercial Real Estate Multifamily Airbnb & A little Alright, Alright Don't miss our tour of Austin CC: @TravisREMindset
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
1 year
🧵M3 Austin Dispatch 1) Astonishing, unbelievable, unprecedented. Empty, empty castles everywhere in hill country. Bubble is too "light" a word to describe this oncoming storm - avalanche, tsunami - and no amount of "hope" of a soft landing, no landing will change this outcome
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
Everyone should be watching Florida...it will tell you everything you need to know
@kristinbjornsen
kristin
5 months
two days later and cut to $599K! i’m nervous for her tbh 😂 @m3_melody still no takers
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
25 days
Vision of things to come In Austin, TX Although FL will ultimately be worse, Austin is ground zero for the speculative frenzy which infected so many of our cities ⁦ @TravisREMindset
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
2 months
Huge increases at food banks, 9.75% delinquency in FHA MBS, tent cities across the country, highest levels of eviction in cities like Phoenix since 2005 The default cycle has begun whether FinTwit wants to admit it or not 👇
@MrAwsumb
Mr.Awsumb
2 months
A 🧵on, eviction, foreclosure and default. According to the Census HH Pulse Survey, 4.1M people are behind on rent/mortgage where eviction is likely to occur within 2 months. FL & TN are among the highest states w/ 37-62% of renters/owners behind on payments (not a typo) 1/6
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
@SenWarren If you forced the agencies to go after non-occupancy fraud, I bet you would find a lot of your missing housing
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
Holy Moly! This is going to make things very interesting....especially in Florida "FinCEN ran a pilot program... Economists...found that corporate all-cash sales of real estate properties dropped by a whopping 95%" Buckle up! H/t @JuliusMiami
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
I've been tracking cities for a full year now and the results are in... Top Markets where inventory is ⬆️ and sales ⬇️ Y-O-Y Knoxville 24.94%/ -18.10% Denver 12.32%/ -6.80% Austin 9.85%/ -5.10% Nashville 5.54%/ -6.60% Atlanta 5.43%/ -4.7% Hon Mention - Miami 2.00%/-13.9%
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
"JPMorgan Chase...had $1.04 trillion in uninsured deposits in its domestic branches and another $437.6 billion in deposits in foreign offices that lack FDIC insurance, bringing its total deposits that lack FDIC insurance to $1.48 trillion."
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
I know I sound like a broken record, but everyone keeps telling me the superprime are fine... Bozeman, MT begs to differ Custom-built new construction for a cool $7.6M What happened to the customer who custom-built it and why are they listing it for sale?
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
🎯 Everyone keeps acting like these tax and insurance increases are no big deal It's a really big deal for our citizens who live on a fixed income And, yes, Florida will be the epicenter for our housing correction (again)
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@DiMartinoBooth
Danielle DiMartino Booth
4 months
THIS is why @m3_melody consistently forecasts that FL will be the nucleus of housing downturn. And consider the effect of raising insurance rates by ~50% had on Denver, Boise & Austin.
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
3 months
Ouch #7 Servicer of FHA Loans
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
That's quite a drop in rent ⬇️
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
1 month
Happy Easter from East TN! I hope everyone has a wonderful day. 🌷🌻💐
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
7 months
A quick view into the issues in our housing market with respect to unrealistic expectations For rent in Sevierville, TN where the median income is $45,073
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
1 year
8) Moved to Austin there would still be too many homes. There is no inventory shortage in these cities and the scale of this is much worse than even I imagined (attaching my original article ICYMI). Heading east to FL and possibly Charlotte 🚒🚒🚒 END
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
Lots happening. Pleasure to talk to someone who cares equally about keeping us all informed! ✅ it out!
@JG_Nuke
Nobody Special
6 months
Something just broke in the mortgage market. Fannie & Freddie getting defensive as signs of fraud emerge. h/t @m3_melody
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
3 months
Jack and I talk about high delinquency in FHA (9.75%) and accelerating delinquency in non agency On an aggregate basis we are at the same dlq levels as Q4 2006…remember what happened next? Don’t miss.
@JG_Nuke
Nobody Special
3 months
Although historically low, mortgage delinquencies are rising across the board📈 as occupancy fraud runs rampant🚨. Great insight from @m3_melody on the current state of the mortgage market.
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
3 months
They run the numbers using tools like AirDNA which she mentions here...she says she never hit the numbers they gave her. Soon many will realize the true extent to which this mania and industry was driven by hype, bezzle and lies h/t- @natbrunell and @JuliusMiami
@StealthQE4
QE Infinity
3 months
New AIRBNB owner was advised to sell her property after only 4 months because even though it was completely booked she was losing $2000 a month. Don’t these people run the numbers before buying these things?🤦‍♂️
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Melody Wright
3 months
The bezzle is <finally> being unearthed Be wary as it will be found at every turn...gasping as it creeps from the shadows Texas and Florida will be where the battle begins...
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
21 days
As Austin’s #1 employer, those Tesla layoffs are going to have an outsized effect Just as this stock slide will…many went all-in on Tesla Austin video in editing and out soon Can’t wait to show you what we’ve seen @TravisREMindset
@MacroEdgeRes
MacroEdge
21 days
An Austin housing developer has filed for bankruptcy on its 155-acre New Braunfels housing development
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
11 months
Credit quality don't mean a thing when borrowers can't pay....just saying "Nearly...62% of new homebuyers have struggled when it came to paying their mortgages, according to the April 12-13 survey of 1,000 Americans who bought homes in 2022 or 2023."
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
This week I did a FHA early payment default review for a client. FHA is 16.8% of all mortgage servicing outstanding and is 9% dlq. Credit score: 585 Reserves: None Open dlq accounts: 4, including electricity and cell + Foreclosure 6 yrs ago Approved by AUS Concerned? I am
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
9 months
“It was made to sound like you would be booked all the time, and you could make 5, 10 grand a month,” she says. But the most she’s ever gotten has been $3,500 a month and sometimes as little as $1,000." But, they are going to hold out a little longer ⏰
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
Sellers no longer convinced waiting until the Spring is best as they watch their neighbors reduce prices and their Zestimates start their return trip From Ft. Lauderdale where listings are ⬆️12.64% to average and 17.68% from Jan # of homes sold ⬇️ 9.85% M-O-M and 11.6% Y-O-Y
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@DiMartinoBooth
Danielle DiMartino Booth
5 months
Falling mortgage rates prompted fence sitters. Unlike other post-pandemic dips, this episode has also scared out sellers, who know the gig is up Listings up 5.8% YoY, biggest in 2 yrs, to 4.2-months' supply, which fits "balanced" definition of 4-5-months
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
“A lot of owners took on homes and mortgages and extra vacation homes when lending criteria was easier….I feel like everybody’s in panic mode now. Even wealthy owners are asking if I have anybody for their house.” But the super prime are not concerned I was told… 🤔
@JuliusMiami
JuliusMiami
6 months
Los Angeles Mansion Owners Test $150,000 Rents as Sales Slump @m3_melody @TrishaFLsun
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
3 months
Don't forget, the Case Shiller only tracks repeat sales (existing homes that have been sold before) Prices for new homes in Q4 were down -12.6% per NAR
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Melody Wright
2 months
Folks finally waking up to what's happening in Florida Retirees on a fixed income cannot afford these increases in taxes and insurance And if a condo, tack on that incoming assessment fee due to new law Prices down and inventory 🚀 h/t: @thirdgenwidget
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@StealthQE4
QE Infinity
2 months
Give this a watch. What a fiasco. Pay attention to the realtor near the end.
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
🚨First American Hearing it is absolute chaos out there right now with mortgage transactions ground to a halt Not good
@trdny
The Real Deal
5 months
Title company First American suffers cyber attack, forcing the firm to shut its website
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
If you want to be prepared, it's important to understand the plumbing and what those gurgling noises might mean 👇
@JeffSnider_EDU
Jeffrey P. Snider
5 months
Banks around the world are preparing for something. This is a pretty important video that I highly recommend checking out in its entirety here:
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Melody Wright
4 months
Had a great end-of-year chat with someone who cares about what’s happening in housing as much as I do and what that could mean to our society for 2024 and beyond Before judging by the title alone, 👂to what I see as the path and time horizon before us
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
3 months
"Homeowners from Sarasota south to Naples...are having a tougher time selling their properties, and the buildup in inventory has caused home prices to fall at some of the fastest rates in the nation." h/t @ClaritySenior All 👀on Florida
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Melody Wright
4 months
New home sales up, but at what cost? I will give you a hint - prices ⬇️ Existing sellers and smaller builders beware
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
11 days
"At 12.95%, credit card delinquencies in Nevada are the worst in the nation. Florida follows, with a rate of 11.68%. Texas ranks fourth, at 11.10%. Some of the stoutest levels of take-home pay in the nation have made these three magnets" 🤔 QI - The Daily Feather
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
"A lawsuit...alleges dozens of South Florida’s most luxurious country clubs and homeowners associations...improperly got as much as $29 million in federal pandemic or “PPP” loans and should be ordered to pay up to triple damages." False Claims Act 🔥s @GRomePow
@borkolaz
LaLaLandpresident
5 months
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Melody Wright
2 months
What if the Chinese start to (need to) sell all those homes they own in the U.S.? Those in CA will say no way based on recent experience, but do we really know how bad it is? All we can do is pay attention to signals 👇
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
I don't really have words for the below...but be wary and stay frosty out there. There is no limit to the amount of $!*# people will shovel to keep the slots singing
@norriegche07
JC Estrad
5 months
@m3_melody - check out what a realtor I've worked in the past sent out today via email...
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Melody Wright
5 months
"Several nonbank mortgage borrowers are in violation of their warehouse borrowing covenants, including failure to meet net worth thresholds. 'Many of these smaller [nonbanks] are just a repurchase demand away from going under.'" Danger, Danger!🔥
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
2 months
"The credit-rating company estimated that prices in 91% of all U.S. metropolitan areas were overvalued, up from 88% in the second quarter of last year"
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
Unexpectedly? 🤔
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
29 days
🧵1) The themes we've been tracking for some time are summarized nicely here, illustrating how property taxes and insurance are crushing homeowners Additionally, this article gives a great example of a private note sale....you know the unregulated mortgages no one knows about
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
A little late, but cooked for 20 yesterday so didn't have a chance to say I am very thankful for my xTwitter family And days like yesterday when we can come together as friends and family to celebrate our blessings are why I do what I do each day Thankful...from the farm in TN
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
“'Although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR, chief economist.'" Oh Larry...what does interest matter if no one can afford these homes?
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
Check out this new construction in Johnson CIty, TN.... Any takers?
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
9 days
1) This is exactly what I've been talking about... When everyone sings about low Loan-to-Values and all that equity - NO ONE has been tracking or discussing all of the forbearance workouts that are sitting in a non-interest bearing lien at the back of the loan
@artimidore
Marcel
9 days
This is crazy. Forbearance programs causing underwater loans Tl;dr: they went into mortgage forbearance and due to how it was structured, they now owe MORE on the house than the original loan So, equity has deteriorated now that they're trying to sell...
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
And to be clear massive increase in completions is not a good thing with over 11 months of inventory in pipeline last month already. The amount of construction I’m seeing on this trip is staggering Bloodbath incoming (esp for smaller builders)
@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
🚨New Residential Construction Total blowout in completions Permits down (non-seasonally adjusted) M-O-M and Y-O-Y Starts down M-O-M Based on what I’m seeing on the road, builders be hustling to move inventory 🔥🔥🔥
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
Big news with big downstream implications. Stay tuned. h/t - @JuliusMiami
@KobeissiLetter
The Kobeissi Letter
6 months
JUST IN: Jury rules that the National Association of Realtors and other franchisors are guilty of conspiring to inflate commissions. The ruling awards $1.8 billion in damages to victims of the class action lawsuit. Zillow stock, $ZG, along with many other real estate stocks…
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Melody Wright
1 year
3) I visited sites from most of the builders pictured in @RaleighFam 's Tweet, and I believe even these numbers might be understated. They park the construction trucks and cars from the workers and pull the new garbage cans to the road to make it look like the homes are occupied.
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
The unraveling hasn't even begun....just wait folks, the level of bezzle we are about to see is going to surprise us all
@TrishaFLsun
TrishaFLSun
5 months
💥 MORTGAGE FRAUD 💥 I have posted in the past about some suspect transactions (see pinned post)regarding some high dollar properties used as ST rentals. Here is some unraveling a title insurer has on their hands & have only scratched the tip of this proverbial iceberg.🧵
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
Booming economy
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
"More than 40% of U.S. office property loans are under water with more debt that current values and could be facing defaults, according to a recent report by the National Bureau of Economic Research." Time for an implode-o-meter like we had back in the day for mortgage co's?
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
Hmmmm 👇
@MacroEdgeRes
MacroEdge
6 months
AirBNB Founder Joe Gebbia has sold off nearly 50% of his remaining position as of a filing today $ABNB
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
8 months
It’s bubblelicious….and not in a fun way. Ask Lakewood Ranch- and every other city Hold on folks. This is going to be wild.
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Melody Wright
7 months
Watch out Airbnb - people are getting angry. Regulations and politicians with angry constituents in an election year are on the menu. No amount of PR is going to stop this 🚆
@okcill
Illie🇮🇱
7 months
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Melody Wright
4 months
They said it couldn’t be so, but it’s happening at a rather alarming speed with greater frequency in many areas across Florida As mentioned, all eyes should be on Florida - despite this cold front, things are heating up 🔥
@KirkChivas
Kirk Chivas
4 months
This poor bagholder in #LakewoodRanch Florida is out of moves
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
7 months
I'm still in shock about this announcement....talked about it recently on a podcast that will be live soon and will share. But what the actual..... I thought we were past late cycle shenanigans but I guess not.
@xskidave
Dave
7 months
Fannie Mae is dropping the down payment requirements for some small multi family investments to 5%. I anticipate a price downturn. More than 5%. This policy change will help inexperienced new landlords take on much larger debt loads on highly leveraged assets. All while the…
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
2 months
The signs of consumer distress continue to build. Home insurance rates are up 19% in 2023 at the same time higher assessed values are causing increases in property taxes (especially new buyers) - folks are getting crushed .
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@TravisREMindset
Real Estate Mindset
2 months
40% of 401k Financial Hardship Withdraws Were Made to Avoid Foreclosure and That Number is Going UP! Yikes.
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Melody Wright
6 months
I also heard a rumor...cannot verify, but this could be really big. I remember when the GSEs stormed TBW - we never found most of those notes again Whatever else happens, this will be a real mess!
@DallasAptGP
Barrett Linburg
6 months
Heard through the grapevine One of the largest commercial mortgage brokers in the country was raided over the weekend Fraud was found in loans they'd sent to Fannie Mae This could now trigger a chain reaction of buybacks and less liquidity among Fannie lenders
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Melody Wright
7 months
This will be interesting to track. Per Redfin data, 42.60% of homes in Boise had price drops this month 👇
@Andrewconomics
Andrew
7 months
@m3_melody breaking in boise: Entire subdivisions are being unloaded for the first time in recent memory. This is real capitulation happening today. 2 entire subdivisions just listed
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Melody Wright
6 months
🚨Received a tip that the 5th largest servicer by volume, LoanCare ($335B), has also been breached. They are on Black Knight's system with close connection Black Knight holds 80% of mortgages on its system And then there's this 👇
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
🚨"The breach stopped scheduled closings, which left agents and homebuyers 'scrambling for solutions''' The title industry has just as much of your data as the mortgage company...more info than most banks keep in their records h/t - @JuliusMiami @SactoGeoff
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Melody Wright
3 months
It’s just beginning….but by all means FHFA let’s push low down payment and lower credit quality multifamily ownership
@aryal1994
Shashankh Aryal
3 months
Foreclosure auction for 510 units. Community located in Kansas City. Minimum bid price is $11,994,175.02. Implies ~$24K per door. Occupancy appears to be 33% today. HUD is conducting the foreclosure / auction.
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Melody Wright
6 months
So, confirmed this a.m. by calling LoanCare - the recorded messages says systems are down and agents will not be able to access borrower records. No press on this that I have found 5th largest servicer 1-800-274-6600 H/t @johnzabroski
@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
🚨Received a tip that the 5th largest servicer by volume, LoanCare ($335B), has also been breached. They are on Black Knight's system with close connection Black Knight holds 80% of mortgages on its system And then there's this 👇
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
🚨Mr. Cooper Customer data was compromised. Operations not fully restored. Article on NPR Saturday essentially hinting that Mr. Cooper violated UDAAP Happy Monday
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
🚨Mr. Cooper Things you won't find on Mr. Cooper's website for some reason...."scheduled" sales by Mr. Bray, CEO, on 9/29 and 10/30 h/t: @frankoz95967943
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
Seems like I may have said this would happen earlier this week.
@MacroEdgeRes
MacroEdge
6 months
Biden Administration enacts foreclosure moratorium on VA home loans thru 2024 after finding thousands of veterans at risk of default due to their inability to pay the mortgage
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
Happy Day After🎄 Remember - Case Shiller is severely lagged and tracks repeat sales. We will see push and pull for several more months. But with sales down YOY & MOM in places like Miami as rates went lower, this headline belies the true picture of the current situation
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
1 month
Inventory has already exploded in Ft. Myers/Lee County (up 50% YOY)....wonder what happens after homeowners (and investors-🩹) hear about this 25% increase in cost + new FEMA requirements H/T: @JuliusMiami
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@JohnMoralesTV
John Morales
1 month
“To stay in the national flood insurance program, communities must agree to a few ground rules. One is that if a storm causes damage worth at least 50% of the value of a property — known as substantial damage — it must be torn down and built up to the newest building codes.”
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
9 months
Can't remember who, but someone asked me about Savannah (Airbnb & VRBO) short-term rental listings & history...hope you see this: July 2023- 3,093 July 2022 - 2,760 July 2021 - 2,278 July 2020 - 2,124 July 2019 - 2,209 July 2018 - 1,940
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
7 months
Great chat with Todd Sachs, an industry veteran - we aren’t fighting the last war - we are more shocked and saddened than you we are here again.
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
I wish more people understood mortgage and how this process works, but taxes and insurance are not 🌶️ enough for headline news, but they are ☠️ to borrowers and homeowners who would otherwise spend that 💰elsewhere 👇
@TrishaFLsun
TrishaFLSun
6 months
Whenever I see a property on the market that sold the year prior, I always wonder what happened. Then I look at their property tax bill. I wonder if ad valorem taxes going from $6,800 to over $18,000 had anything to do with it. @m3_melody
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
12 days
Insiders getting their warning...the battle royale between existing homeowners and the builders is heating up 🔥 "The pandemic housing boom is yesterday's news, along with the intense buying competition it fueled" 🌶️🌶️🌶️
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
1 month
The biggest increases in our homeless population are the 55+, so Del Webb can keep building new communities in FL but folks on fixed incomes will not be able to afford them ‘Build it they will come’ isn’t going to work out with these increases in taxes and insurance
@DiMartinoBooth
Danielle DiMartino Booth
1 month
Boomers can’t consume shelter in Florida on their fixed incomes. Let’s play this one out in the real world by asking what non-productive retirees do when they can’t consume prices because they no longer produce incomes. @m3_melody Can you lend a helping hand please?
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
🚨Updates live on recent events including Mr. Cooper, Meridian and DTCC announcement Confirmed Mr. Cooper is not bidding in the Correspondent market Confirmed they are not taking payments Approx 8-10 days until remittance to the agencies due... 👇
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
2 months
"loanDepot, which became a public company three years ago, posted a $59.8 million loss for the fourth quarter as originations and revenues continued to suffer in one of the tougher operating environments the industry has seen in quite some time" -Inside Mortgage Finance
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
4 months
So thankful to Adam for the opportunity to talk about what's ahead for 2024 as well as my concerns over private notes Inventory in Florida is exploding as well as price cuts in many areas...things are going to be very interesting this Spring season
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Adam Taggart
4 months
The spring selling market is likely to bring "true price discovery" to the housing market, predicts housing analyst Melody Wright @m3_melody And she expects home prices to suffer "aggregate price decline" this year on a national level Watch:
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Melody Wright
6 months
But I was told just yesterday the superprime were going to be fine....
@TheBondFreak
Randy Woodward
6 months
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Melody Wright
6 months
🚨Mr. Cooper
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
6 months
🚨Mr. Cooper Customer data was compromised. Operations not fully restored. Article on NPR Saturday essentially hinting that Mr. Cooper violated UDAAP Happy Monday
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Melody Wright
9 days
I honestly believe that amortization schedules should be taught in elementary schools Maybe after this cycle?
@TonyBennet42429
Tony Bennett
9 days
@m3_melody "they now owe MORE on the house than the original loan" ... Duh. Most people nary a clue how the amortization schedule works. Refi'd < 18 months after initial loan? Barely any principal paid + refi closing costs = higher balance. Forbearance + amortization reset = square 1
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Melody Wright
5 months
For a measly $1,200 per month this beauty could be yours. And check out that $195 drop in rent.... In Sevierville, TN where there are 8,126 short-term rental listings and the median income is $49,449
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Melody Wright
4 months
Hoping everyone had a wonderful day filled with the little things that bring you comfort. Wishing all much luck and good fortune in 2024 with a little bit of Southern tradition... Happy New Year Everyone!
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Melody Wright
17 days
“'Buy now, pay later' loans allow consumers to pay for purchases over time...interest free...But economists...warned last year that 'phantom debt' from pay-later loans 'could create substantial problems for the consumer and the broader economy'" - NYT H/T: @JuliusMiami
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Melody Wright
6 months
Had a lot of fun doing this show… The foreclosure “bombshell” we discuss is the VA moratorium… Most of you who follow me know my conservative take on foreclosures and how long they take Not a bad listen for holiday traveling.
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Melody Wright
23 days
Over a year ago as I saw site after site of homes priced over $400K all across the country in progress I wondered how they believed there were enough folks in the U.S. to afford these prices This ride is about to be closed
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Melody Wright
8 months
🧵 1) How much would you pay to Airbnb this lovely spot? 7 short miles from the beach, but luckily close to a Firestone Auto Center. The owner is hoping a lot. Think #Airbnbust and #Airbnbroke are clickbait? A Saturday history lesson of STR listings pic h/t @kristinbjornsen
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Melody Wright
5 months
Rates⬇️, existing home sales flat and down YOY, mortgage apps down week-over-week, permits down, starts up, completions up and multifamily losses at a big builder At long last I believe we are exiting the soup and landing on the beach Eyes forward
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Melody Wright
3 months
Indeed For the cities I track (15 in CA, 12 in FL and 5 in TX, including Dallas): Average Inventory Change Year-over-Year CA +3.15% FL +17.56% TX +19.79% Average Inventory Change Month-over-Month CA +8.42% FL +6.91% TX +2.96%
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Danielle DiMartino Booth
3 months
Happy Saturday from Dallas, which tops @Redfin New Listings markets (those are grande deltas v nationwide +6.6%) Dallas (27.1%) Miami (26.9%) Jacksonville (26.3%) Fort Lauderdale (23.6%) San Diego (22.1%) It will be AOK if Law of Supply & Demand revoked
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Melody Wright
4 months
Is this the polar vortex we’re being warned about? 😉🥶
@JuliusMiami
JuliusMiami
4 months
Citigroup plans 20,000 job cuts as it reports worst quarter in 15 years @m3_melody @TrishaFLsun
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Melody Wright
4 months
🚨New Residential Construction Total blowout in completions Permits down (non-seasonally adjusted) M-O-M and Y-O-Y Starts down M-O-M Based on what I’m seeing on the road, builders be hustling to move inventory 🔥🔥🔥
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Melody Wright
6 months
Top 20% is slowing down spending perhaps due to increasing concerns over the expense and/ or value of their greatest asset? Taxes due in CA and FL escrow notices recently went out… It’s getting chilly out there.
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Melody Wright
5 months
Many of the all-cash sales were from cash-out refis on larger properties, personal loans on equity and crypto assets and let's not forget, other people's money for investments that have gone poof As Danielle says, it will take some time to shine the light in all the dark corners
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Danielle DiMartino Booth
5 months
It’s will take time to “out” But I’ve long held that “all cash” transactions in US housing were so many red herrings. W/deference to “demographic miracle” masses, the ONLY way to inflate a bubble of the magnitude we’ve seen in residential real estate is LEVERAGE, even if hidden
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Melody Wright
7 months
"The percent of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans rose to 6.11% in September, the highest in data going back to 1994"
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Melody Wright
5 months
If you haven't heard of it, be sure and note the term "provision".....you are going to be hearing a lot more about it
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Melody Wright
4 months
Changes are afoot
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Melody Wright
2 months
Was just in Wilmington, NC and what I saw there was disturbing Deep dive out later this week
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Danielle DiMartino Booth
2 months
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Melody Wright
8 months
Long post live on the Stack where get down and dirty and deep into the nitty gritty on New-Build inventory and permits with guest contributions from @MrAwsumb ! And, may I suggest a pairing with my recent Wealthion video:
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Melody Wright
5 months
🚨First American One of the largest title companies just became the latest victim
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
5 months
🚨Mr. Cooper "Mr. Cooper said in a separate filing with federal regulators on Friday that hackers obtained personal data on “substantially all of our current and former customers.” Price tag now up to $25M from $5M...that # will go⬆️ h/t - @fatcoin88
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Melody Wright
3 months
"Worsening economics for homebuyers drove Non-QM lenders to chase volume, thereby manufacturing demand, through looser underwriting...Loosening credit standards helped create volume, but at the cost of loan performance" And it wasn't just non-QM per Fitch via NMP @GRomePow
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Melody Wright
4 months
No, it’s not just you. And in my opinion the rise in consumer sentiment is yet another example of the power of narrative
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Danielle DiMartino Booth
4 months
Is it me, or is there a dichotomy in the @WSJ headlines on the front page of its website?
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Melody Wright
3 months
Watch out below....especially in these spots where multifamily deliveries will 🚀 (courtesy of JBREC)
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@DiMartinoBooth
Danielle DiMartino Booth
3 months
Add a separate unknown to half-century high of fresh apartment supply flooding market by yearend: How many Short-Term Rentals will convert to Long-Term Leases in 2024? Of 150 markets @m3_melody tracks, STR saw 14% rise in 2023. Thank the LORD for the strongest job market EVER!
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Melody Wright
4 months
From Raleigh in a massive multi-builder construction site. Trouble already with this vacant property in default and it looks like based on excavated site they are planning to build hundreds more homes here with another site right down the road
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