Strategist, Writer, Technologist, GFC 1 Survivor.
Tweets about housing, mortgage finance, commercial real estate, macro and technology. Not investment advice.
Abandoned in Austin
Existing Homes
New Home Construction
Commercial Real Estate
Multifamily
Airbnb
&
A little Alright, Alright
Don't miss our tour of Austin
CC:
@TravisREMindset
🧵M3 Austin Dispatch
1) Astonishing, unbelievable, unprecedented.
Empty, empty castles everywhere in hill country. Bubble is too "light" a word to describe this oncoming storm - avalanche, tsunami - and no amount of "hope" of a soft landing, no landing will change this outcome
Vision of things to come In Austin, TX
Although FL will ultimately be worse, Austin is ground zero for the speculative frenzy which infected so many of our cities
@TravisREMindset
Huge increases at food banks, 9.75% delinquency in FHA MBS, tent cities across the country, highest levels of eviction in cities like Phoenix since 2005
The default cycle has begun whether FinTwit wants to admit it or not
👇
A 🧵on, eviction, foreclosure and default. According to the Census HH Pulse Survey, 4.1M people are behind on rent/mortgage where eviction is likely to occur within 2 months. FL & TN are among the highest states w/ 37-62% of renters/owners behind on payments (not a typo) 1/6
Holy Moly! This is going to make things very interesting....especially in Florida
"FinCEN ran a pilot program...
Economists...found that corporate all-cash sales of real estate properties dropped by a whopping 95%"
Buckle up!
H/t
@JuliusMiami
I've been tracking cities for a full year now and the results are in...
Top Markets where inventory is ⬆️ and sales ⬇️ Y-O-Y
Knoxville 24.94%/ -18.10%
Denver 12.32%/ -6.80%
Austin 9.85%/ -5.10%
Nashville 5.54%/ -6.60%
Atlanta 5.43%/ -4.7%
Hon Mention - Miami 2.00%/-13.9%
"JPMorgan Chase...had $1.04 trillion in uninsured deposits in its domestic branches and another $437.6 billion in deposits in foreign offices that lack FDIC insurance, bringing its total deposits that lack FDIC insurance to $1.48 trillion."
I know I sound like a broken record, but everyone keeps telling me the superprime are fine...
Bozeman, MT begs to differ
Custom-built new construction for a cool $7.6M
What happened to the customer who custom-built it and why are they listing it for sale?
🎯
Everyone keeps acting like these tax and insurance increases are no big deal
It's a really big deal for our citizens who live on a fixed income
And, yes, Florida will be the epicenter for our housing correction (again)
THIS is why
@m3_melody
consistently forecasts that FL will be the nucleus of housing downturn. And consider the effect of raising insurance rates by ~50% had on Denver, Boise & Austin.
A quick view into the issues in our housing market with respect to unrealistic expectations
For rent in Sevierville, TN where the median income is $45,073
8) Moved to Austin there would still be too many homes. There is no inventory shortage in these cities and the scale of this is much worse than even I imagined (attaching my original article ICYMI). Heading east to FL and possibly Charlotte 🚒🚒🚒
END
Jack and I talk about high delinquency in FHA (9.75%) and accelerating delinquency in non agency
On an aggregate basis we are at the same dlq levels as Q4 2006…remember what happened next?
Don’t miss.
Although historically low, mortgage delinquencies are rising across the board📈 as occupancy fraud runs rampant🚨. Great insight from
@m3_melody
on the current state of the mortgage market.
They run the numbers using tools like AirDNA which she mentions here...she says she never hit the numbers they gave her.
Soon many will realize the true extent to which this mania and industry was driven by hype, bezzle and lies
h/t-
@natbrunell
and
@JuliusMiami
New AIRBNB owner was advised to sell her property after only 4 months because even though it was completely booked she was losing $2000 a month.
Don’t these people run the numbers before buying these things?🤦♂️
The bezzle is <finally> being unearthed
Be wary as it will be found at every turn...gasping as it creeps from the shadows
Texas and Florida will be where the battle begins...
As Austin’s
#1
employer, those Tesla layoffs are going to have an outsized effect
Just as this stock slide will…many went all-in on Tesla
Austin video in editing and out soon
Can’t wait to show you what we’ve seen
@TravisREMindset
Credit quality don't mean a thing when borrowers can't pay....just saying
"Nearly...62% of new homebuyers have struggled when it came to paying their mortgages, according to the April 12-13 survey of 1,000 Americans who bought homes in 2022 or 2023."
This week I did a FHA early payment default review for a client. FHA is 16.8% of all mortgage servicing outstanding and is 9% dlq.
Credit score: 585
Reserves: None
Open dlq accounts: 4, including electricity and cell
+ Foreclosure 6 yrs ago
Approved by AUS
Concerned? I am
“It was made to sound like you would be booked all the time, and you could make 5, 10 grand a month,” she says. But the most she’s ever gotten has been $3,500 a month and sometimes as little as $1,000."
But, they are going to hold out a little longer ⏰
Sellers no longer convinced waiting until the Spring is best as they watch their neighbors reduce prices and their Zestimates start their return trip
From Ft. Lauderdale where listings are ⬆️12.64% to average and 17.68% from Jan
# of homes sold ⬇️ 9.85% M-O-M and 11.6% Y-O-Y
Falling mortgage rates prompted fence sitters. Unlike other post-pandemic dips, this episode has also scared out sellers, who know the gig is up
Listings up 5.8% YoY, biggest in 2 yrs, to 4.2-months' supply, which fits "balanced" definition of 4-5-months
“A lot of owners took on homes and mortgages and extra vacation homes when lending criteria was easier….I feel like everybody’s in panic mode now. Even wealthy owners are asking if I have anybody for their house.”
But the super prime are not concerned I was told…
🤔
Don't forget, the Case Shiller only tracks repeat sales (existing homes that have been sold before)
Prices for new homes in Q4 were down -12.6% per NAR
Folks finally waking up to what's happening in Florida
Retirees on a fixed income cannot afford these increases in taxes and insurance
And if a condo, tack on that incoming assessment fee due to new law
Prices down and inventory 🚀
h/t:
@thirdgenwidget
Had a great end-of-year chat with someone who cares about what’s happening in housing as much as I do and what that could mean to our society for 2024 and beyond
Before judging by the title alone, 👂to what I see as the path and time horizon before us
"Homeowners from Sarasota south to Naples...are having a tougher time selling their properties, and the buildup in inventory has caused home prices to fall at some of the fastest rates in the nation."
h/t
@ClaritySenior
All 👀on Florida
"At 12.95%, credit card delinquencies in Nevada are the worst in the nation. Florida follows, with a rate of 11.68%. Texas ranks fourth, at 11.10%. Some of the stoutest levels of take-home pay in the nation have made these three magnets"
🤔
QI - The Daily Feather
"A lawsuit...alleges dozens of South Florida’s most luxurious country clubs and homeowners associations...improperly got as much as $29 million in federal pandemic or “PPP” loans and should be ordered to pay up to triple damages."
False Claims Act 🔥s
@GRomePow
What if the Chinese start to (need to) sell all those homes they own in the U.S.?
Those in CA will say no way based on recent experience, but do we really know how bad it is?
All we can do is pay attention to signals 👇
I don't really have words for the below...but be wary and stay frosty out there. There is no limit to the amount of $!*# people will shovel to keep the slots singing
"Several nonbank mortgage borrowers are in violation of their warehouse borrowing covenants, including failure to meet net worth thresholds. 'Many of these smaller [nonbanks] are just a repurchase demand away from going under.'"
Danger, Danger!🔥
"The credit-rating company estimated that prices in 91% of all U.S. metropolitan areas were overvalued, up from 88% in the second quarter of last year"
🧵1) The themes we've been tracking for some time are summarized nicely here, illustrating how property taxes and insurance are crushing homeowners
Additionally, this article gives a great example of a private note sale....you know the unregulated mortgages no one knows about
A little late, but cooked for 20 yesterday so didn't have a chance to say
I am very thankful for my xTwitter family
And days like yesterday when we can come together as friends and family to celebrate our blessings are why I do what I do each day
Thankful...from the farm in TN
“'Although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR, chief economist.'"
Oh Larry...what does interest matter if no one can afford these homes?
1) This is exactly what I've been talking about... When everyone sings about low Loan-to-Values and all that equity - NO ONE has been tracking or discussing all of the forbearance workouts that are sitting in a non-interest bearing lien at the back of the loan
This is crazy. Forbearance programs causing underwater loans
Tl;dr: they went into mortgage forbearance and due to how it was structured, they now owe MORE on the house than the original loan
So, equity has deteriorated now that they're trying to sell...
And to be clear massive increase in completions is not a good thing with over 11 months of inventory in pipeline last month already.
The amount of construction I’m seeing on this trip is staggering
Bloodbath incoming (esp for smaller builders)
🚨New Residential Construction
Total blowout in completions
Permits down (non-seasonally adjusted) M-O-M and Y-O-Y
Starts down M-O-M
Based on what I’m seeing on the road, builders be hustling to move inventory
🔥🔥🔥
JUST IN: Jury rules that the National Association of Realtors and other franchisors are guilty of conspiring to inflate commissions.
The ruling awards $1.8 billion in damages to victims of the class action lawsuit.
Zillow stock, $ZG, along with many other real estate stocks…
3) I visited sites from most of the builders pictured in
@RaleighFam
's Tweet, and I believe even these numbers might be understated. They park the construction trucks and cars from the workers and pull the new garbage cans to the road to make it look like the homes are occupied.
💥 MORTGAGE FRAUD 💥
I have posted in the past about some suspect transactions (see pinned post)regarding some high dollar properties used as ST rentals. Here is some unraveling a title insurer has on their hands & have only scratched the tip of this proverbial iceberg.🧵
"More than 40% of U.S. office property loans are under water with more debt that current values and could be facing defaults, according to a recent report by the National Bureau of Economic Research."
Time for an implode-o-meter like we had back in the day for mortgage co's?
Watch out Airbnb - people are getting angry.
Regulations and politicians with angry constituents in an election year are on the menu.
No amount of PR is going to stop this 🚆
They said it couldn’t be so, but it’s happening at a rather alarming speed with greater frequency in many areas across Florida
As mentioned, all eyes should be on Florida - despite this cold front, things are heating up 🔥
I'm still in shock about this announcement....talked about it recently on a podcast that will be live soon and will share.
But what the actual.....
I thought we were past late cycle shenanigans but I guess not.
Fannie Mae is dropping the down payment requirements for some small multi family investments to 5%.
I anticipate a price downturn. More than 5%.
This policy change will help inexperienced new landlords take on much larger debt loads on highly leveraged assets. All while the…
The signs of consumer distress continue to build. Home insurance rates are up 19% in 2023 at the same time higher assessed values are causing increases in property taxes (especially new buyers) - folks are getting crushed
.
I also heard a rumor...cannot verify, but this could be really big.
I remember when the GSEs stormed TBW - we never found most of those notes again
Whatever else happens, this will be a real mess!
Heard through the grapevine
One of the largest commercial mortgage brokers in the country was raided over the weekend
Fraud was found in loans they'd sent to Fannie Mae
This could now trigger a chain reaction of buybacks and less liquidity among Fannie lenders
@m3_melody
breaking in boise: Entire subdivisions are being unloaded for the first time in recent memory.
This is real capitulation happening today. 2 entire subdivisions just listed
🚨Received a tip that the 5th largest servicer by volume, LoanCare ($335B), has also been breached.
They are on Black Knight's system with close connection
Black Knight holds 80% of mortgages on its system
And then there's this 👇
🚨"The breach stopped scheduled closings, which left agents and homebuyers 'scrambling for solutions'''
The title industry has just as much of your data as the mortgage company...more info than most banks keep in their records
h/t -
@JuliusMiami
@SactoGeoff
Foreclosure auction for 510 units.
Community located in Kansas City.
Minimum bid price is $11,994,175.02. Implies ~$24K per door.
Occupancy appears to be 33% today.
HUD is conducting the foreclosure / auction.
So, confirmed this a.m. by calling LoanCare - the recorded messages says systems are down and agents will not be able to access borrower records.
No press on this that I have found
5th largest servicer
1-800-274-6600
H/t
@johnzabroski
🚨Received a tip that the 5th largest servicer by volume, LoanCare ($335B), has also been breached.
They are on Black Knight's system with close connection
Black Knight holds 80% of mortgages on its system
And then there's this 👇
🚨Mr. Cooper
Customer data was compromised.
Operations not fully restored.
Article on NPR Saturday essentially hinting that Mr. Cooper violated UDAAP
Happy Monday
🚨Mr. Cooper
Things you won't find on Mr. Cooper's website for some reason...."scheduled" sales by Mr. Bray, CEO, on 9/29 and 10/30
h/t:
@frankoz95967943
Biden Administration enacts foreclosure moratorium on VA home loans thru 2024 after finding thousands of veterans at risk of default due to their inability to pay the mortgage
Happy Day After🎄
Remember - Case Shiller is severely lagged and tracks repeat sales. We will see push and pull for several more months.
But with sales down YOY & MOM in places like Miami as rates went lower, this headline belies the true picture of the current situation
Inventory has already exploded in Ft. Myers/Lee County (up 50% YOY)....wonder what happens after homeowners (and investors-🩹) hear about this 25% increase in cost + new FEMA requirements
H/T:
@JuliusMiami
“To stay in the national flood insurance program, communities must agree to a few ground rules. One is that if a storm causes damage worth at least 50% of the value of a property — known as substantial damage — it must be torn down and built up to the newest building codes.”
Can't remember who, but someone asked me about Savannah (Airbnb & VRBO) short-term rental listings & history...hope you see this:
July 2023- 3,093
July 2022 - 2,760
July 2021 - 2,278
July 2020 - 2,124
July 2019 - 2,209
July 2018 - 1,940
I wish more people understood mortgage and how this process works, but taxes and insurance are not 🌶️ enough for headline news, but they are ☠️ to borrowers and homeowners who would otherwise spend that 💰elsewhere
👇
Whenever I see a property on the market that sold the year prior, I always wonder what happened. Then I look at their property tax bill. I wonder if ad valorem taxes going from $6,800 to over $18,000 had anything to do with it.
@m3_melody
Insiders getting their warning...the battle royale between existing homeowners and the builders is heating up 🔥
"The pandemic housing boom is yesterday's news, along with the intense buying competition it fueled"
🌶️🌶️🌶️
The biggest increases in our homeless population are the 55+, so Del Webb can keep building new communities in FL but folks on fixed incomes will not be able to afford them
‘Build it they will come’ isn’t going to work out with these increases in taxes and insurance
Boomers can’t consume shelter in Florida on their fixed incomes. Let’s play this one out in the real world by asking what non-productive retirees do when they can’t consume prices because they no longer produce incomes.
@m3_melody
Can you lend a helping hand please?
🚨Updates live on recent events including Mr. Cooper, Meridian and DTCC announcement
Confirmed Mr. Cooper is not bidding in the Correspondent market
Confirmed they are not taking payments
Approx 8-10 days until remittance to the agencies due...
👇
"loanDepot, which became a public company three years ago, posted a $59.8 million loss for the fourth quarter as originations and revenues continued to suffer in one of the tougher operating environments the industry has seen in quite some time"
-Inside Mortgage Finance
So thankful to Adam for the opportunity to talk about what's ahead for 2024 as well as my concerns over private notes
Inventory in Florida is exploding as well as price cuts in many areas...things are going to be very interesting this Spring season
The spring selling market is likely to bring "true price discovery" to the housing market, predicts housing analyst Melody Wright
@m3_melody
And she expects home prices to suffer "aggregate price decline" this year on a national level
Watch:
🚨Mr. Cooper
Customer data was compromised.
Operations not fully restored.
Article on NPR Saturday essentially hinting that Mr. Cooper violated UDAAP
Happy Monday
@m3_melody
"they now owe MORE on the house than the original loan"
...
Duh.
Most people nary a clue how the amortization schedule works. Refi'd < 18 months after initial loan?
Barely any principal paid + refi closing costs = higher balance.
Forbearance + amortization reset = square 1
For a measly $1,200 per month this beauty could be yours. And check out that $195 drop in rent....
In Sevierville, TN where there are 8,126 short-term rental listings and the median income is $49,449
Hoping everyone had a wonderful day filled with the little things that bring you comfort.
Wishing all much luck and good fortune in 2024 with a little bit of Southern tradition...
Happy New Year Everyone!
“'Buy now, pay later' loans allow consumers to pay for purchases over time...interest free...But economists...warned last year that 'phantom debt' from pay-later loans 'could create substantial problems for the consumer and the broader economy'"
- NYT
H/T:
@JuliusMiami
Had a lot of fun doing this show…
The foreclosure “bombshell” we discuss is the VA moratorium…
Most of you who follow me know my conservative take on foreclosures and how long they take
Not a bad listen for holiday traveling.
Over a year ago as I saw site after site of homes priced over $400K all across the country in progress I wondered how they believed there were enough folks in the U.S. to afford these prices
This ride is about to be closed
🧵
1) How much would you pay to Airbnb this lovely spot? 7 short miles from the beach, but luckily close to a Firestone Auto Center. The owner is hoping a lot.
Think
#Airbnbust
and
#Airbnbroke
are clickbait?
A Saturday history lesson of STR listings
pic h/t
@kristinbjornsen
Rates⬇️, existing home sales flat and down YOY, mortgage apps down week-over-week, permits down, starts up, completions up and multifamily losses at a big builder
At long last I believe we are exiting the soup and landing on the beach
Eyes forward
Indeed
For the cities I track (15 in CA, 12 in FL and 5 in TX, including Dallas):
Average Inventory Change Year-over-Year
CA +3.15%
FL +17.56%
TX +19.79%
Average Inventory Change Month-over-Month
CA +8.42%
FL +6.91%
TX +2.96%
Happy Saturday from Dallas, which tops
@Redfin
New Listings markets (those are grande deltas v nationwide +6.6%)
Dallas (27.1%)
Miami (26.9%)
Jacksonville (26.3%)
Fort Lauderdale (23.6%)
San Diego (22.1%)
It will be AOK if Law of Supply & Demand revoked
🚨New Residential Construction
Total blowout in completions
Permits down (non-seasonally adjusted) M-O-M and Y-O-Y
Starts down M-O-M
Based on what I’m seeing on the road, builders be hustling to move inventory
🔥🔥🔥
Top 20% is slowing down spending perhaps due to increasing concerns over the expense and/ or value of their greatest asset?
Taxes due in CA and FL escrow notices recently went out…
It’s getting chilly out there.
Many of the all-cash sales were from cash-out refis on larger properties, personal loans on equity and crypto assets and let's not forget, other people's money for investments that have gone poof
As Danielle says, it will take some time to shine the light in all the dark corners
It’s will take time to “out”
But I’ve long held that “all cash” transactions in US housing were so many red herrings.
W/deference to “demographic miracle” masses, the ONLY way to inflate a bubble of the magnitude we’ve seen in residential real estate is LEVERAGE, even if hidden
Long post live on the Stack where get down and dirty and deep into the nitty gritty on New-Build inventory and permits with guest contributions from
@MrAwsumb
!
And, may I suggest a pairing with my recent Wealthion video:
🚨Mr. Cooper
"Mr. Cooper said in a separate filing with federal regulators on Friday that hackers obtained personal data on “substantially all of our current and former customers.”
Price tag now up to $25M from $5M...that # will go⬆️
h/t -
@fatcoin88
"Worsening economics for homebuyers drove Non-QM lenders to chase volume, thereby manufacturing demand, through looser underwriting...Loosening credit standards helped create volume, but at the cost of loan performance"
And it wasn't just non-QM
per Fitch via NMP
@GRomePow
Add a separate unknown to half-century high of fresh apartment supply flooding market by yearend:
How many Short-Term Rentals will convert to Long-Term Leases in 2024?
Of 150 markets
@m3_melody
tracks, STR saw 14% rise in 2023.
Thank the LORD for the strongest job market EVER!
From Raleigh in a massive multi-builder construction site.
Trouble already with this vacant property in default and it looks like based on excavated site they are planning to build hundreds more homes here with another site right down the road