Please note: We do not provide investment advice on Social Media Sites. If you would like to inquire about our investment services please call 732-772-9500.
As we parse through conflicting economic data in this weeks Reality Check, one thing is clear:
All signs point to a market top in June/July followed by recession as liquidity runs dry.
Join the podcast to hear honest economic commentary every week:
We have abused our reserve currency just long enough and we are living in the environment when it's ending.
I just did an interview with
@RafiFarber
and Phil Low discussing exactly what drastic things need to happen to bring the economy back into balance and how our investment…
This weeks podcast is dedicated to distilling the most essential points from my interview with
@menlobear
on
@thoughtfulmoney
and expanding on how to prepare for the inevitable popping of this bubble.
There may be huge opportunities in the near future for investors if you know…
Home prices and stocks need a 40% drop to match historical averages.
This could trigger a full depression and bankrupt the financial system.
But will the Fed be forced to try and keep these asset prices from falling?
Every week, I go through the real data on the mid-week…
Why is gold soaring?
Because global trust in the U.S reserve system is deteriorating and central banks are resorting to buying gold with reckless abandon.
This topic is explored along with interest rates, inflation and the health of the consumer in my recent interview with…
Market manipulation and a decade of sub 1% interest rates have created a massive asset bubble that we will need to face.
With the support from BTFP ending, weakness in the banking system could trigger another liquidity crisis.
@PalisadesRadio
When the total value of equities was roughly half of GDP like it was from the mid-'70s thru the mid-'90s; the economy was able to lead the stock market. But, when money printing pushes stocks to become 1.5x the value of the economy, it is stocks that then lead GDP.
The market correction isn’t here yet, but it's coming.
This week's podcast alerts listeners to key developments setting up markets for a bumpy ride including interest rates, overleveraged consumers, recession indicators, employment.
Listen here:
Weakening economic data is sending markets higher as Wall Street waits for rate cuts.
The data will catch up to markets and Wall Street.. and that is what I cover in this week’s podcast:
The disheartening truth is that inflation and Fed policy failures have bankrupted the middle class.
@AnthonyFatseas
and I discuss the plight of the middle class, the deteriorating economic outlook and how the Fed will likely react to what might come next.…
The 60/40 portfolio has failed investors since 2021 with the duration bonds getting absolutely crushed.
@DunagunKaiser
and I discuss the tough position the Fed is in and the pathway of inflation on Liberty And Finance:
At the inaugural Thoughtful Money Conference, hosted by
@menlobear
, two major catalysts were discussed that could potentially propel the U.S. back into a deflationary period and bring asset prices down from historically overvalued levels.
Conference:
The U.S government, consumers, businesses and banks are cracking under these higher interest rates and beginning to fail.
In this week's podcast, we discuss critical emerging warning signs that the Fed's 'higher for longer' initiative can't continue.
Join the podcast for 5…
Don’t be fooled by the strong 497k ADP June jobs report. Almost half was in Leisure and Hospitality. The June 1st debt ceiling forces Student loan repayment starting in October. Millennials are exiting the Metaverse and entering the labor force. Prob just a one-month aberration.
Poor Fed policy is the driver behind the growing gap between the 'Have-Nots' and 'Have Yachts'.
@GaryBohm5
and I discuss how Fed policy has seriously hurt the middle class and touch on how far away fair valuations in the markets are as a result:
The evidence of a faltering U.S. economy is clear.
This week's podcast covers faltering corporate earnings, slowing GDP, employment, and debt concerns—all indicators that a recession may be on the doorstep.
Join today and listen for free:
Two indicators will signal an imminent recession:
1. Widening credit spreads
2. Tightening financial conditions
Ignoring warning signs hidden in today's data is dangerous. I present the data weekly for listeners to be aware and prepared.
Join the Mid Week Reality Check for 5…
Inflation is trending negatively with core CPI almost double the Fed's target, yet Powell is discussing rate cuts.
Could he be worried?
This week's reality check focuses on what could force Powell's hand to a Fed pivot and what that could mean for all of us.
Listen for free…
The Household survey in this same BLS report, showed a loss of 31k workers.
The Index of aggregate hours worked fell by a lofty .3%.
The Establishment Surveys’ headline number is a very misleading; but the MSFM is swallowing the bait whole!
Bank lending standards, a crucial part of my investment model, are weakening.
With falling loan demand and stricter lending conditions, the risks are mounting.
This week’s podcast explores the latest bank reports and their significance:
the government says there were 353k new jobs created in January…Really?
According to research firm Challenger Gray and Christmas, US companies announced plans to hire just 5,376 workers in January. That is the lowest total for that month on record.
Thank you
@LanceRoberts
and
@TheBubbleBubble
for a great interview where I had a chance to elaborate in detail on the unprecedented economic and market distortions that exist today. The interview should be out next week.
The power that existed in free markets was usurped by governments and central bans who have gone all-in with their price manipulations and are forced to perpetually engage in debt monetization or risk a global asset price meltdown leading to a depression worldwide.
Job cut announcements were up 136% from December.
The ADP payroll report showed that just 107k jobs were created in Jan.
The ISM manufacturing employment number showed that hiring was not only negative, but is contracting at a faster rate.
When Household Net Worth was 370% of GDP, asset prices were a function of economic growth. But with asset prices at 535% of GDP, it is asset prices that pull the economy. Keeping equities in a bubble is now mandatory because a fall in the market can quickly bring down the economy
As consumers lose faith in the purchasing power of the currency and in US Sovereign Debt, we could see long term interest rates rise—not fall—if a recession takes hold this summer.
@theandymillette
and I discuss all the reasons for this here:
Michael Pento - Fed Policies Rocket Fuel for Gold and Silver via
@YouTube
Thank you
@DollarCollapse
for naming my interview with
@USAWatchdog
as one of your Top Ten Videos.
Mike Pence on CNBC says no evidence of inflation - maybe he doesn't know that CPI is up 1.9% y/y, PPI is up 2.2% y/y, home prices are up 48% over the past 6 years! And BTW college tuition has been growing 8x faster than wages for decades!
#MiddleClass