Biggest Fintech lesson I’ve learned in the last 5 years.
Incumbent financial institutions are slow, not stupid. If your main advantage is acquiring consumers banks don’t want, there’s probably a good reason they didn’t want them.
Your biz model should account for that reason.
Feel like joining a startup is like being told you’re going to a new place where the streets are paved with gold.
Except when you get there you find out the streets aren’t paved and in fact you’re the one paving them
An alarmingly large percentage of fintech pitches I get are given to me by CEOs with very little to no financial services background who aren't totally aware they are blatantly violating a financial regulation with their product.
Always speak to lawyers before you speak to VCs
BNPL is going to eat the credit card market in ~10 years.
It’s a product that is easier to underwrite, that gives more people access to credit (and building credit responsibly) without the lender taking too much risk.
The trick will be verticalization of BNPL businesses
I don’t know who needs to see this but…
Percentage chance of getting into a fatal car accident (%.009)
Percentage chance of any vaccinated person being hospitalized from the delta variant (%.004)
Take this information and act accordingly.
Using “alternative data” to underwrite loans in the US has not yet worked at scale (defined as vintage yields of greater than 5% YoY for >3 years). If you believe this is “the future” or a major component of underwriting, you don’t understand how loans are actually underwritten.
Really excited to announce our Series A for
@bloomcredit
! We have plans to use the new funding to make new hires and build more of the infrastructure to enable inclusive consumer credit products
CEOs are up to 12x more likely to exhibit psychopathic traits (or just straight be psychopaths) vs general population.
Founders are also 3x more likely to abuse substances, 10x more likely bipolar and 2x more likely to wind up in the psych ward.
This job tears people apart.
Friendly reminder to VCs investing in lending businesses
Growth ≠ business quality
The product is giving away money. You can discount the debt price and generate growth w/ a “data advantage.” But you’ve effectively created fab for lending.
Look for better indicators ;)
Had someone inform me today that a major card network is seeing a ~15% reduction in total usage because they are losing customers to BNPL.
It’s already happening. BNPL is eating credit.
BNPL is going to eat the credit card market in ~10 years.
It’s a product that is easier to underwrite, that gives more people access to credit (and building credit responsibly) without the lender taking too much risk.
The trick will be verticalization of BNPL businesses
Been considering if you could raise VC to buy a sports team.
If you buy a league 2 club in England and get them promoted 3x by investing in fitness technology/ analytics you’d likely see the investment go up 5-10x.
Feels like a VC investment to me. No?
Is there a way to start a neobank as a lifestyle business? Like essentially just be like “we’re gonna be a neobank for golfers?” And get it moving with like… 100-200k in investment and not shoot for a VC return?
Paging
@shamir_k
/
@bolingj
Idk if anyone knows this but the reason startup founders announce funding rounds is because we love all the emails from dev shops.
It’s actually the reason we built this biz. The joy of emails that start with “matt, I see you work in tech!”
I find the reminders healthy ya know
This is generally the shape of fintech infrastructure providers.
They take a fair deal of time to get going (because they are dealing with all the incumbents you don't want to)then once everything is in place they tend to take off.
Cc
@fintechtoday_
@julieverhage
@iankar_
Your Q1 OKRs are probably not helping your team win... but that doesn't have to be the case.
Here's a 3 things to think about as you start doing some Q1 planning... a thread 🧵 (sorry... I know I know)
There’s one company in Fintech I know that has about 3-4x the traction as it’s competitors, for nearly identical products, and yet 1/10th of the funding.
VCs… when you hear this disaggregated from the company names what’s your guess as to why?
Debit interchange exists as a means of helping banks cover fraud loses, not as an actual revenue generator.
If your only source of revenue is debit interchange then you are essentially saying your secret sauce for success is to be better at managing fraud risk
Incredible how
@CommonBond
announced it was closing it’s doors this week and no one seemed to notice.
CommonBond was considered once was tapped to be a unicorn on every Fintech article.
Huge warning to neobanks - large customer base with bad economics are not valuable
This upcoming weekend will be my last in Colorado.
Moving back to the NYC area! Excited to hang with everyone out there again. Shoot me a note if you want to catch up in the next few weeks.
Colorado was a great experience. Will try to see everyone to say bye before I go <3
Even after ~a decades worth of *publicly available* data on the subject I get asked about this about once a week.
If there were alt data points with such incredible signal we’d have found them already.
The best alt data you’ll ever get is that which is native to your bizmodel
if I were a lending startup I would simply use alternative sources of data to achieve lower risk with borrowers who can’t qualify under conventional standards
If you are a VC that is investing in lending businesses... please be cognizant of how a company presents it's numbers to you.
Loan performance data should be presented on a vintage basis. If they give you aggregate, the data is likely fudged and you should run.
If you're trying to raise money for anything that's remotely lending related... I'm wayyyyy more interested to hear your GTM plans than I am your underwriting scheme
Underwriting gets easier when CTA is lower because it means you can more effectively compete for high LTV loans.
My favorite emails have become those from headhunters trying to recruit me to be CEO of another company.
Isn't this like asking me to abandon my own child to parent another person's child? Which I'm sure anyone whose ever been a parent would be very excited for?
Very silly.
Excited to announce a new chapter in
@bloomcredit
History! I'm stepping into a new role as Executive Chairman where I'll work with our new CEO (
@widhalm
) on bringing about a vision of making credit more accessible.
I'll still be FT. Pumped for bloom =)
I've begun to think of the lack of public recognition of
@trueaccord
as one of the company's greatest assets.
Consensus fintech is not performing well. End of story. Everyone got marked up. No one became liquid from those markups.
The best fintech companies will not be sexy
I don't tweet about Fintech anymore... it's because nothing new is actually happening.
Most pitches I get are recycled versions of companies I knew about 10 years ago.
Most new product launches are the same as 5 years ago.
I have no new opinions. We've done nothing new.
I’m curious what lessons VCs learned from Ondeck and LendingClub?
(I.e fundamentally not great businesses, but with presumably good venture returns)
Do these outcomes dictate our current market at all for Fintech?
If you are a fintech company that's thinking about improving the financial health of consumers, and you aren't looking into furnishment... now is probably the time to start =)
I guarantee that your competitors are if you are not.
@linasbeliunas
I think those things are important, but usually not core to a biz model.
I think the issue we're having as an industry is we've over funded a series of companies all built on the same poor business models.
Compliance likely isn't going to save these businesses.
The two ways lenders really are able to compete are acquisition and cost of capital.
It’s easy to fall in love with the idea that a better underwriter can find a deeper truth.
But the truth is you can only express financial wellness so many ways in data
Today is in fact my 29th birthday.
I was 22 when I founded bloom. It’s super crazy how time has flown.
Grateful to everyone that’s helped along the way. And even those of you who are total trolls ❤️🙏
Who do I know that could intro me to
@jack
?
I really feel that the acquisition of
@afterpay_au
could be huge for
@CashApp
customers to improve their credit standing and create a sustainable system of financial inclusion.
Would love to help if I can :)
Great post on how lending works =). Was happy to contribute to this in a very small way.
Credit is tons of disciplines wrapped into one outlet. As Frank and I discussed privately, it's hard to cover everything.
If you want to learn the nuts and bolts. This is it 👇
1/27: We’ve seen a few $10B+ lending companies emerge from the fintech ecosystem in the past few years. We’ve also seen a few fintech lenders meltdown in the public markets.
Are lending companies VC backable? Thoughts plus a framework to answer this question👇
🙃Quick moment to celebrate 🙃
Between the coaching work I do and investing I'm working with over 25 companies right now. Can't say it's not challenging, but def amazing.
I get asked by VCs if I'm going to found another company. The answer is probably not =)
I love what I do
If you aren’t paying attention to
@trueaccord
becoming a massive business you should be.
And if you’re still in the camp that you can’t build a technology driven and customer friendly collections based venture backable biz then idk what to tell you.
It’s clearly happening
9.9 million.
This is the number that matters to us most at TrueAccord.
Why?
It’s the number of customers who worked with us in 2021 to:
💸 Resolve debt on their own terms
💸 Improve their financial fitness
💸 Take charge of their future
Almost everyone has intent to repay loans. Not everyone necessarily has ability to do so.
Underwriting is a means of predicting financial shock. Not necessarily calibrating to highest potential of financial performance.
Reframe your thinking this way and it makes more sense
Who are the best founders turned investors?
Have founders asking me for this recently and I don't have a definitive list. Would love to connect with VCs who really get the founding journey.
A few that come to mind are
@pitdesi
/
@iamjakestream
/
@maiab
Any others?
Welcome to YC W22, team
@BloomAppSD
!
Bloom offers students and young professionals in East Africa US Dollar banking. By saving money in USD, they won't be subject to the volatility of their home currencies.
Really excited to announce that
@bloomcredit
has raised our Series A! We'll be using the $$ to make new hires and continue to build out our API to connect with credit bureau infrastructure to enable consumer products that support financial health.
Going to be in NYC next week! Excited to catch up with everyone that's there.
Let me know if you wanna grab coffee / drinks to catch up or talk fintech stuff.
Lending innovation in the US is almost *never* a result of technological innovation.
Building positive selection usually requires operational innovation. Very few lenders have any real competitive advantage in data science.
Hard to get different outputs from similar inputs.
Feel like being an entrepreneur is similar to being a musician in that each company or project is an album. It's an expression of that period of someone's life. Rather than a catch all for who they are forever.
My second album isn't going to be anything like my first.
Despite healthy cynicism, I think Credit is venture backable.
But, I think the model that usually applies to software (build moats via IP) doesn't apply to lending.
You should really think of them more in the framework of an Ecommerce investment vs a software company.
I’m looking for a way to help more companies figure out their credit strategies.
Credit is really complicated and nuanced stuff. And we have the most exposure
@bloomcredit
to what works and what doesn’t.
What is the best way for us to guide other fintechs to desired outcomes?
Bloom Credit is growing super fast right now.
Not in the PR - the business 4x’d sales in Q1 on the back of tons of latent demand to launch credit products and we’ve just made some pretty epic hires too.
I’m admittedly biased but…Keep your eyes on us 😉
Reporting utility data to improve credit scores is NOT a thing
Most scores prior to FICO 9 do not take utility into account. F9 is likely a decade away from mass adoption. Reporting that data is screaming into the void.
Want to improve scores? Turn utility payments into BNPL
Bloom is hiring for a Director of Product! We have tons of demand and are looking for someone to help us build products to help our customers.
Please apply, or recommend me the best product person ever =)
I often have college students reach out to me asking to connect. I used to be this kid, so I almost always engage.
I'm pretty disappointed at the number who just ask me (without developing a relationship) for an internship.
Don't be transactional. You'll miss the real value.
We're doing a lot of hiring
@bloomcredit
! Lots more positions are going up, but wanted to get this out there.
Let me know if you, or anyone you know is interested in joining us to make access to credit data and services more accessible!
We're hiring for a VP of Revenue
@bloomcredit
! We have a ton of inbound demand, and are looking for a sales leader to create systems and build a team to enable us to scale and grow.
If you or anyone you know is interested... please get in touch!
Very quietly...
@VCMike
has had multiple portfolio companies ($OPEN, BarkBox, Color, Whoop) become unicorns this year
Given how much attention VCs generally get, the fact he remains so under the radar (by design btw) is pretty impressive.
Seed founders should speak with Mike :)
I always think it’s funny people want to always have the conversation about how predictive fico is …
You’re missing the point. Fico is never going anywhere because of the compliance use cases it offers.
Say it with me now: “We. Are. Never. Replacing. Fico.”
I'd like to announce that as part of our Series A... we are rebranding to Paisley Credit.
We are expecting that with the name change, we will likely see a preemptive Series B at a 5x valuation sometime in the next 3 days.
Today is the 4 year anniversary of
@tedr
passing away. Ted helped start
@bloomcredit
, so I think of him often.
He taught me many lessons in a short time. None more important than to reframe your purpose in terms of what you can do for others.
Miss him lots. Enjoy every day
People think CEOs becomes burnt out or depressed because their company hit a road block.
More often, the company hits a roadblock because the CEO got burnt out or depressed.
If you're a VC ... encourage your founders to take care of themselves. It'll help your returns
I feel like it’d be a fun exercise to do a list of “critically acclaimed” Fintech companies.
@onbondstreet
,
@pinchrent
,
@final
,
@BankSimple
come to mind.
Companies where they got bought before their time but we all respect the founders and the paths they paved etc
I think there's an inverse relationship between the size / ease of a raise vs how successful that company will be when it comes to fintech infrastructure.
Look at early rounds in Marqeta, Socure, MX... Not competitive Series As or brand funds.
Privacy is more recent example
VCs... never tell a founder to bootstrap. They wouldn't be talking to you if that was an option.
It highlights your clear lack of empathy with founders and also your lack of understanding of the financial distress ~95% of founders go through.
Just don't ever do it.
Things that are quite likely when you found a company:
- Anxiety / stress
- Fractured relationships
- Financial Instability.
Things that are quite unlikely when you found a company:
- An exit where you become extraordinarily wealthy.
Act accordingly.
@pitdesi
For those that don't know.... Sheel was also first institutional money in the biz. Grateful for all the support over the years <3.
Even if we're not cool enough to make his twitter bio 😋
Want to know why credit is so difficult to understand?
Just the FICO score has multiple use cases.
You need it for:
- underwriting
- compliance (AAN reasoning)
- securitizations
- Marketing (direct mail)
And so on…
That’s 4 (largely unrelated) departments of a business.
95% of pitch deck feedback is irrelevant
Most of it is aesthetic feedback around how information is presented.
The best way to know if your pitch deck is good would be to ask someone to pitch you your company back to you.
If they can easily do this, your pitch is working 🦄
Credit looks at 2 things. Ability and willingness to repay.
We focus a lot as an industry on ability (this is what a FICO/ plaid calculates).
Next gen credit models will attempt to understand a consumer’s willingness and build that understanding into their business model.
Multiple people have been trying to start businesses that look like
@bloomcredit
pre pivot.
Really love this model and sincerely hope people can make it work.
But also just a funny reminder everything in fintech repeats itself every 5 years.
The rumors are true. I did in fact turn 30 today. Which I'm sure is surprising for many of you given I've been in the fintech world since I was 19. But here we are.
Also thanks a ton
@cokiehasiotis
for giving me the best birthday yet. Truly the best partner I could ask for <3
Or… and this is a crazy idea but hear me out…
We keep asking all the BNPLs to report their payments so consumers can track them?
Can confirm they are all thinking of this… let’s keep asking for it :)
Product idea for a bank:
A BNPL budgeting app for consumers to pull together all of their BNPL loans and get a unified view into their future cash flow.
To build this, the bank would likely have to screen scrape the BNPL providers, which would be the ultimate irony…
For y’all who were wondering why I no longer live in nyc this sums it up.
It’s hard for us to separate ourselves from our natural roots. Concrete jungles are not what our nervous systems naturally seek.
Simply put - I feel better in nature :). You might too.
Leaving NYC was so good for my mental health—left May 2020 and since then barely took anything for my anxiety, I’ve now been back for 1 month and have had more anxiety in 1 month than in 1 year being away.
For anyone that generally believes this… give me a call and see if I can’t change your mind in 10 mins 😇
Anything you likely see has “shady”behaviors almost always has a really solid and logical reasoning to it.
I miss early to mid 2010s tech vibes in nyc. Genuine optimism from people trying to build things because they were passionate and cared about the stitching instead of building for external validation.
How do we bring back that energy?