Max Bergmann
@maxbergmann
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Director Europe, Russia, Eurasia @csis . Host EuroFile/RussianRoulette. Fmr @amprog , State Department (PM/T/SP). Dad, husband, DC sports fan, Tottenham, Gators
Washington DC
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We are witnessing the emergence of a global power in this crisis: the European Union. I was confident that a Russian invasion w/d be a shock to Europe and lead to a robust response. But never w/d I have predicted the announcements from Germany, EU, and others. Truly stunning. 1/
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What. This cannot be. A ventilator maker could increase production by 500% but the USG hasn’t put in an order. No order, no ramp up of production. OMG.
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This is Putin not simply declaring war on Ukraine but openly declaring a New Cold War with the West.
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The press need to stop saying there was no “evidence of collusion.” That’s Barr’s spin. The report is FULL of evidence of collusion. Mueller just said it didn’t legally amount to a criminal conspiracy.
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🧵on US security assistance to Ukraine. It's working. Ukraine might be one of the biggest successes of US sec assistance. And the reason is b/c US aid didn't focus on some high-end shiny objects but on core mil tasks. That focus s/d remain. 1/
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Important thread. Nunes and the House GOP straight up lied about the FISA warrant - slandering the FBI and misleading the public. Nunes should be removed from HPSCI immediately.
Reading through Carter Page's redacted FISA warrant makes clear the extent to which Nunes abused his access to classified intel to mislead people. And it shows why we can't trust a single thing he or his buddies in the House say about the investigation.
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Let’s also be clear: Tim Morrison is not a career FSO. He is a diehard Republican that is despised by Democratic FP community. He is to the extreme right of the political spectrum. He ain’t a never Trumper. He is a Trumper. And he is blowing the whistle.
”It was the first time something like this had been injected as a condition to release the aid,” Morrison said.
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This is the blockbuster story of the day. Trump
dropped $10M into his campaign in the final days of 2016...and it looks like foreign money. A bribe. From Egypt.
It is simply unbelievable that investigators were too chicken shit to subpoena his finances.
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While I am surprised at the pace and extent of the steps, this also shouldn't have been a huge shock to those watching the EU. Anytime the EU comes under threat, it doesn't wilt, instead it fights like hell to defend its union, as
@APHClarkson
has noted. 5/5
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In a blink of an eye Germany will spend 100bn euros on defense. To put this in context their entire defense budget is 53bn euros. Germany, Sweden, and the EU are sending lethal asst. This will dramatically grow EU's hard power capabilities. 2/
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The EU was already an economic power. But it is showing its geopolitical resolve w/ sanctions. Europe will likely suffer a hit in the tens of billions of loss of economic activity. Much more so than the US. But the EU is leaning in. 3/
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I also expect this crisis will lead to some structural reforms to strengthen the EU. Expect to see some real advances on EU defense and perhaps some structural reforms to create a more EU foreign policy. 4/
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It is time to stop pretending we all don’t know what’s going on here. It stopped being a mystery long ago. The President of the United States is beholden to a hostile foreign power. This is an urgent national security crisis.
"DO NOT CONGRATULATE," national security advisers wrote in Trump's written briefing ahead of call with Vladimir Putin. Trump congratulated. The notes said to condemn the attack of an ex-Russian spy in London with a nerve agent. He did not.
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Big new report from the Moscow Project. There were at least 70 contacts between the Kremlin and the Trump team prior to the inauguration. And the Trump Team tried to cover up every. single. one.
NEW on NBC: our report finds House Intel has no or incomplete information about 81% of known contacts between Trump officials and Russian-linked figures
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These are incredibly strong numbers. It’s just not true that the American public has “Ukraine fatigue.”
Instead, we have a dysfunctional Republican House and the presumed GOP nominee opposed.
🚨 New Pew poll:
74% of Americans view the war in Ukraine as important to US national interests
43% describe it as “very important”
59% of Americans describe the war in Ukraine as important to them *personally* when asked
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What’s just shocking to me it’s as if the Mueller report never happened. It is the most damning document ever written about a president. But the country isn’t going to read a 448 page document. They have lives. They need political leaders to explain it. Dems aren’t, Trump is.
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Democrats are unbelievably losing the political fight over the Russia scandal. This is of their own doing. They've ceded the field and aren't fighting the fight. They want this to be bipartisan but the GOP has decided to go on offense - "witch hunt!"/deep state/liberal FBI 1/
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This plan is Putin's worst nightmare.
In some states, creating a shell company to hide your identity is easier than getting a library card. The global flow of dark money is a serious threat—and it's time to root it out. I've got a plan to fight global financial corruption at home and abroad.
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What's stunning is that Trump didn't THREATEN to hold Ukraine security assistance hostage. He. Actually. DID. IT. He actually held hostage vital military aid to an ally AT war to pressure them to do a hit job on Dems.
@ThePlumLineGS
has a great overview
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THREAD: It looks increasingly likely that Pence, Priebus, and McGahn knew about the Trump campaign’s collusion w/ Russia as early as Feb 2017. This is not hyperbole. Compare the Woodward book Fear w/ Mueller’s documents. 1/
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Suspicious Russian money came pouring into the US through Deutsche Bank in 2016. What else was Russia doing in 2016... oh yeah... CONDUCTING A MASSIVE ELECTION INTERFERENCE CAMPAIGN! I'm sure one had nothing to do with the other. No need to investigate that, right Bob?
Here's something you rarely see. A suspicious activity report, or SAR, sent to Treasury's FinCEN
Perhaps even rarer: It was sent to FinCEN by Bank of America raising red flags about Deutsche Bank and the volume of Russian money flowing into the US financial system in 2016
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I went back to the State Dept. this week for the first time since Jan 20th. It was incredibly depressing. American diplomacy is dying. 1.
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Let’s be clear, this Ukraine scandal isn’t “worse” than Russia. It’s an extension of it. Trump’s continuing the collusion and by squeezing Ukraine he’s also sticking it to a Putin adversary.
The major difference is he was caught in the act and Democrats finally decided to move.
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And just to prepare everyone, if it is true, the major allegation in the dossier isn’t the stupid tape. It is that Steele cites 4 sources (1 who was even found dead in his car on 12/26/16) who all say Trump had a relationship w/ Russian intel beginning post-08 financial crisis.
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This. I would add Volker is an example of the "grown ups" failing. He is like Rosenstein. Had an opportunity to stand up for the country and decided to just play along. In the end, they were just cowards.
Volker is a great example of how Trump corrupts people. I'm sure he convinced himself that his actions were appropriate as long as he maintained this fiction, but in fact he was giving in when he should've fought back.
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This is hugely important development. Grassley getting hammered at town halls in conservative western Iowa for protecting Trump on the Russia investigation. Only way GOP stops the assault on the investigation is if they feel real political heat.
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Make him an impeachment manager.
Senators “shall be on Oath or Affirmation.”
“I solemnly swear that in all things appertaining to the trial of the impeachment of Donald John Trump, president of the United States, now pending, I will do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws: So help me God.”
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The chaos in the House leaves Ukraine in a dangerous limbo.
Let’s be clear, if the US congress does not pass a funding bill, Ukraine will be in deep trouble. A lot of Ukrainians will die and their ability to fight on will be severely compromised. Here’s why… 🧵
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This is so outrageous. Deripaska was lobbying hard for this and was successful. Steve Mnuchin s/d be dragged in front of Congress to explain this and the decision making around this decision needs to be investigated.
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Here’s a proposal. The UK should sanction Roman Abramovich and his UK holding company. UK should then seize his UK assets, meaning Chelsea FC. And then sell it for multi-billion profit with revenue going to aid Ukraine.
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All roads literally lead back to Russia. Trump’s “Ukraine did it not Russia” conspiracy theory came from someone the DoJ believes is a Russian intelligence agent.
Not sure this is registering, maybe drown out by impeachment talk, but Buzzfeed release of doc suggests Manafort IMMEDIATELY began Russia defense & disinfo op fed by Kilimnik straight into Trump team
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Read me and
@SamBerger_DC
: “Mueller may still be only showing us part of his hand, but it’s a damn good hand. He’s signalled to us he’s found collusion. He’s shown us that the president is compromised... Mueller is coming. And he’s coming for Trump.”
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Stone knew in August that Podesta had been hacked - weeks before Podesta knew himself. If Stone knew, Trump knew.
We also know the Trump campaign knew the Russians had “thousands of emails” from Papadopoulos’ meeting w/ the Maltese prof.
This is what a conspiracy looks like.
Roger Stone says in an Instagram video that a story is coming in The New Yorker which says Stone explicitly told Trump in October 2016 that WikiLeaks had/was going to dump the Podesta emails.
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McConnell, Ryan, Nunes and Burr all knew there was a counterintel investigation into Trump and in response they acted... to defend and cover up for him.
Ryan backed Nunes’ efforts to undermine DOJ. McConnell blocked Mueller protection/election sec bills. They’re all implicated.
McCabe, in his book, on the Gang of 8 briefing: "Rosenstein went to talk to Nunes, came back, told me, Nunes is staying, he says he’s not recused from this, he refuses to leave...At the end of the day it’s his recusal, I can’t enforce it. We can’t kick him out of the room."
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To be clear, the key X factor for me has been the determination and bravery of the Ukrainian people. The Ukrainian military has also been clearly underestimated. And that's in no small part to the assistance of the US. We need to keep it up. 18/end
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Mueller c/dn’t prove conspiracy b/c all the lying and obstruction. There is just no way that Papadopolus did not tell the rest of the Trump campaign about the Russians possessing “dirt.” He told foreign govts! But no one can remember if he told others on the campaign. Seriously.
Papadopoulos's knowledge that Russia "could assist the Campaign through the anonymous release of info that would be damaging to Clinton" reached the govts of Greece, Australia and the US by July 2016, but there's no documentary evidence it ever reached the Campaign he worked for.
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The scandal here is that a US Senator knew and didn’t care he was colluding with Russian intelligence to influence an election
MORE: Sen.
@RonJohnsonWI
was repeatedly warned—including by the *Republican* head of the Senate intel committee—that his "investigation" was likely aiding in the Russian push to interest in U.S. politics. Johnson's pushed ahead away.
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Thanks to
@JRubinBlogger
for quoting me in her excellent piece: “He did it. He colluded with Russia during the 2016 election...The bipartisan report from the Senate Intelligence Committee should erase any lingering doubt.”
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Meanwhile the public have lost the plot and are lost. They don't know basic facts - 20+ indictments, 4 Trump campaign officials indicted, a suspected Russian agent on the campaign - b/c no one is hammering home these facts. 2/
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We are descending to a place where nothing matters. And that’s the place where autocrats thrive and democracies die.
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I didn’t know this but
@ABlinken
’s step-dad’s liberation story mirrors my grandpa’s. Both survived Auschwitz. Both were sent to Dachau. Both were death marched out of the camp. Both fled. Both were liberated by US GIs. Both became Americans.
"My late stepfather, Samuel, he was 1 of 900 children in his school in Białystok, Poland, but the only one to survive the Holocaust after four years in concentration camps ... that is what America represents to the world." -- Blinken
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It’s pretty clear what happened here:
Trump took a hostage ($250M wartime aid to Ukraine).
Trump told Ukraine that he’d release the hostage if they helped take down his political opponents.
He used the USG to extort a foreign country for political gain. This can’t stand.
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Great column. The similarities between Trump and Brexit, as well as National Front in France all follow similar pattern - that’s because they are all part of the same Russian effort.
Britain has a Russian collusion scandal now. It looks exactly like Trump's.
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In 2014, the US had no security assistance relationship with Ukraine. They got like $2m in asst from State FMF for int peacekeeping. The Ukrainian military was in a total shambles. Corruption had literally gutted the military. 2/
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Devin Nunes calls the
@moscow_project
"fake news" for its report on Trump's contacts w/ Russia.
@moscow_project
responds with a 70 tweet reply w/ all the known contacts b/w Trump camp and Russia - which, to be fair, are probably all news to Nunes.
@DevinNunes
No need to take our word for it, Devin—we've documented all of the contacts between the Trump campaign and Russia in our report. Here are all 70 of them:
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So knowing what's coming, Dems s/d get ahead of the curve. Convey to the public what the investigation is about, hammer key facts, and make the public question the president's behavior. There is so much to work with. END
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Reminding the public of known facts is not the media’s job. That is the job of politicians. But Dems have no message on the Russia investigation. Instead they are scared to talk about it and think it’s too confusing. 3/
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What Nunes and Trump have wrought: “the outing of an F.B.I. informant under scrutiny by the House intelligence committee — an examination encouraged by President Trump — has had a chilling effect on intelligence collection.”
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Where leaders press for the coolest thing in Janes Defense, and we often go along, buy high end kit for them. Not actually build their militaries.
For Ukraine ambitions were focused on building a real, capable military. Not fancy kit. 12/
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Tillerson is now clearly one of worst Sec States in American history. Few have done more to weaken America. Putin c/d not be happier 7.
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there was an indirect benefit to this policy. It forced US assistance to focus less on high end systems but on defense reforms and aid make Ukrainian forces function better (ie providing secure comms, so they didn't use Russian cellphones). 9/
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Reminder: Morrison used to work for congressman Turner. Morrison is not non-partisan career official. He’s a partisan Republican.
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As war erupted in 2014, we scrambled in the USG to rush aid. But a number of issues arose. Ukraine's needs were enormous. They needed stuff right away. And they needed to be able to use that right away. Those posed real constraints initially. 3/
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I am just floored that he used an address like this to just randomly shiv the transatlantic alliance and provoke a diplomatic crisis. There are thousands of Americans in Europe, thousands of Europeans here... now they have to panic.
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Sending hi-tech crown jewels was seen as basically giving US systems to Russia and its defense industry, which would exploit them - both to improve their own systems and to improve their defenses vs. ours. 5/
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US also had two general concerns 1. Provoking Russia w/ lethal aid - USG was nervous that c/d trigger a full Russian invasion. 2. Tech security. Remember Ukr was corrupted, its govt/mil major target for Russian intel. 4/
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But the needs now are super practical - resupply and stockpiles. The US got $1bn in security asst out the door to Ukraine in record time because of that. And it is no doubt having a huge impact on the battlefield. 17/
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It’s amazing how totally damning the Mueller report is despite a seemingly clear effort to constrain and obstruct the investigation at every turn. Rosenstein begging to keep his job sayiing “I give the investigation credibility,” raises huge concerns.
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The Attorney General is asking foreign countries about American intelligence officers. Just imagine if Obama’s AG had done this. Obama would have been impeached and likely removed from office.
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The US and Ukraine also now have an extremely well developed security relationship now - built in part by all the aid. Unlike in 2014/15, we have a really clear sense of needs and ability to absorb. Money, unlike before, is now no object. 16/
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This is the biggest test for our republic in our lifetime
Just today: Trump admin declined to impose new Russia sanctions, a top FBI official probing Trump&Russia was forced out, and House Intel R's voted to release a classified memo that purports to undermine Russia probe. Also, DOJ/FBI are officially under investigation by HPSCI R's.
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State is being quickly gutted. Offices closing; Sr. and mid level career experts fleeing or being axed. The deconstruction is happening 2.
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We also provided a lot of useful kit, such as counter-mortar radars, allowing Ukrainian forces to hit back at Russian fires. And then the money began to ramp up... 10/
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Now, those concerns were legitimate but c/d be overcome. That was the case w/ Javelin. There was real consideration in the USG about sending Javelin. But the main issue wasn't really provoking Russia. We couldn't get them there in time to address the present crisis. 6/
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And one addendum. If you notice that the US has two security assistance programs - one at State (FMF) and one at DoD... Well, they do the exact. same. thing. It's crazy. Here's how to reform US security assistance.
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However, when the public is reminded of key facts – people have pleaded guilty! - or reminded of why this investigation happened – they had these sketchy meetings they lied about! - it has a real impact. 6/
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But that said, the concerns of provoking the Russians or tech security are just far outweighed by Ukraine's needs. So if there are systems we can provide and they can use. We should do it. But here's the thing... those assessments are happening. USG is looking at everything. 15/
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The credulity given to Trump in this story is jaw-dropping. I'm old enough to remember when Trump really wanted to release his taxes but his accountants told him no b/c of a "routine audit."
There's no way Trump wants to meet with Mueller. This is spin.
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Now that Ukraine is at war it is even more impractical to provide super high end systems they don't know how to operate. As I argued in a recent report, we are unlikely to be able to to surge game changing high end weapons. 14/
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Instead, Democrats want to talk about process – the need for an investigation! And are literally on the defensive “defending the investigation” or “protecting Mueller,” while the GOP is on offense attacking Mueller. 4/
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Like 6 weeks later we would do it all again. (In 7-8 yrs you can read some declass'd memos from me).
Hence the lethal/non-lethal to Ukraine emerged kind of by accident. It was an absurd policy - we didn't have a non-lethal policy for the Yanukovych govt. But... 8/
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But by focusing on the process, the public has forgotten what the investigation is all about! And the GOP effort is working. The public now generally views the investigation along partisan lines, despite Dems deliberately trying to avoid being seen as partisan. 5/
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South Korea is doing 10,000 tests a day. We did 8.... EIGHT.
Sanjay Gupta just had Don Lemon read the CDC’s coronavirus testing stats off of his phone.
ZERO tests conducted today by CDC.
A grand total of 8 tests conducted by other public health agencies across the country.
EIGHT.
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It went like this...Crisis b/w Ukr-Russia escalates, USG assesses how to help Ukr, finds lead time to deliver Javelin 6 weeks or more + training. And concludes won't make a difference now. Crisis subsides and now little interest in provoking Russians. 7/
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I've seen critiques saying we should have given Ukraine Patriot. Well, if money was no object, sure. But look at the budget numbers. We did a Patriot sale to Kuwait for $1.4bn. If US gives Ukraine Patriot, that's it. That's all they get. 13/
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This is a really bold step. First major Democratic political leader to break from the herd.
BREAKING: Sen. Elizabeth Warren says the House should start impeachment proceedings for President Trump
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But this is where the political consultant industrial complex says don’t talk about Russia! Polls say talk about Health care and puppies! Yes talk about that! But it is possible to walk and chew gum. 8/
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The constraints began to loosen and the amount of kit that could be provided increased. But there were still ceilings. This meant the security assistance relationship didn't devolve into those w/ Middle Eastern countries... 11/
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A month ago my wife returned from quarantine. His reaction was priceless...
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First, Trump scandals are having an impact on his approvals. W/o them Dems in tough spot - w/ 4% unemployment, Trump is drafting off of the Obama economy. So talk about cleaning up Washington, stopping corruption and holding Trump accountable. 9/
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There's more. Mueller has "intel reports suggesting [Manafort] was in contact with Russian operatives as early as 2015." That spring "U.S. spy agencies captured Russian govt officials discussing associates of Mr. Trump, including Mr. Manafort."
This is one of the biggest bombshells of all:
8. Russian operatives reportedly discuss (a) Russia’s efforts to coordinate with Manafort on the election and (b) Manafort’s encouraging help from the Kremlin
(CNN's
@evanperez
@PamelaBrownCNN
@ShimonPro
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So for Dems this situation is solvable! But to solve it you need a clear message. 7/
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When
@Reuters
looked at Trump property in FL found 63 Russians bought $100M in condos. 1/3 of units were anonym LLCs
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THREAD: The timing of the amazing
@jimsciutto
story on the CIA pulling their asset out of Moscow is critical and it is bonkers. Lost is Putin's call with Trump on May 2, 2017. A bizarre chain of events followed. 1/
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Dems on the Hill finally struck back today 1. Feinstein released the transcript 2. House Dems had a presser and sent letter hitting Paul Ryan for not taking action and running a bogus investigation. 3. Sen Whitehouse gave a strong floor speech on Russia and hit GOP. More of this!
Senator Whitehouse: I think the report's held up damn well.
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Seeing a lot of: “well, if every country spent 2% things would be fine.” Here’s the thing, it’s actually not about the money.
He just doesn’t want to go to war for you… whether you’re Poland spending 4% or Spain at 1%. Trump just doesn’t believe in alliances.
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Reminder this is the President’s legal team spying on a US ambassador they are trying to eliminate
Trump personally approved John Dowd’s representation of Parnas and Fruman—two men he claimed not to know.
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From a pure political lens - Dems need to realize this is headed to an epic collision. Trump colluded. There’s no depth to his depravity. Mueller’s coming. Stop running from the biggest political scandal in history and pressure the GOP to act. And then punish them if they don’t.
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Thread: This week has been a game-changer in the Russia investigation.
Before it was fairly reasonable to doubt where Mueller was headed and say maybe he won’t implicate Trump.
There’s almost no doubt anymore. This investigation will implicate Trump in conspiring w/ Russia 1/
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The press, the country, have never quite processed how utterly and completely corrupt Donald Trump is. He did it. He did all of it.
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Lastly, Dems need to shape the coming battlefield over the outcome of the Mueller investigation. Do you not think Mueller will find evidence of serious of crimes by the POTUS and his associates? If not, I have some land to sell you… 10/
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Republicans in Congress spent 2yrs protecting a suspected a Russian agent. They attacked the investigation, attacked the FBI, attacked US courts.
The GOP have been Trump’s accomplices. And it increasingly looks like that means they’ve also been Russia’s accomplices.
Adam Schiff: "Counterintelligence concerns about those associated with the Trump campaign, including the President himself, have been at the heart of our investigation since the beginning. Those concerns have not been alleviated by the Committee's work over the last two year."
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Must read from
@JRubinBlogger
and quotes me: “If Trump took a strong stance toward Russia, it would contradict the narrative that he’s in Putin’s pocket. The fact that won’t dare do so tells you everything you need to know: He’s in Putin pocket.”
Whether Trump is compromised, or is simply weak and ineffective, we are not “winning” yet. Ds should seize the initiative, pass legis to punish Russian misbehavior and run on a platform of strong U.S. leadership in the world based on democratic values.
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This is the impact of Trump’s electoral doom loop. He’s stopped trying to win the election and just moved on to trying to steal it.
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Idea that Tillerson running State like a business overlooks that most businesses fail. 5.
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Powerful stat from
@RepJeffries
. Of the 15 Senate impeachment trials that have been held all had witnesses, averaging 33 (!) witnesses per trial.
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Unbelievably reckless by McCarthy. If simply getting "targeted" by foreign intel can be made a political liability, politicians are going to be reticent about alerting authorities. Swalwell did exactly what someone s/d do. Was alerted and cut off ties.
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