Ken Massey
@masseyratings
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math professor and sports statistician
Tennessee
Joined December 2009
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Since 1998, here are counts of 27 schools to hold number 1 spot in the college football composite.
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I'd almost consider D2 NW Missouri for an at-large in the D1 tournament.
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Here's a scatterplot of average final FBS ranking vs number of NFL draft picks over a 20 year span. (Power 5 teams only)
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Whenever Google asks you to place your life in the hands of its A.I., remember the time the ranking system they did for the NCAA put Colgate at number 9.
Shout out to that time a Google SWE declared that, if he wanted to, he could totally train a deep learning model to perfectly predict March Madness.
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Turning on a dime:
@UCF_Football
2015 0-12, 2016 6-7, 2017 13-0. For the human committee to leave them out of the playoff was inhumane.
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Now let Cincy play Marshall, with the winner facing the BYU-Coastal Carolina winner. Could be an effective play-in tournament to the CFP.
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I'd have given UCF the no.4 spot in the
#CFBPlayoff
. They have SOS comparable to 1984 national champion BYU. And access for the mid-major conferences was one argument I always heard against the BCS.
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NFL gives Wonderlic test because it can't assume that "students" at four year universities can read, write, do arithmetic or deduce
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NCAA D1 champions from 2018-19:
Clemson (FB)
Maryland (MSOC)
FSU (WSOC)
Stanford (WVOL)
UVA (MBB)
Baylor (WBB)
UCLA (SOFT)
Vandy (BASE)
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Never would have guessed that perusing the Sagarin ratings while waiting at the library for my mom to finish work would lead to
@edjsports
30 years later.
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BCS/CFP era (since 1998) how many weeks each school has been in top 4 of ranking composite:
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No longer an alien. Alina was naturalized yesterday. We are very grateful.
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I hope dynamic scheduling is here to stay. BYU football: Cougars will play Coastal Carolina on Saturday.
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Don't fill out your bracket yet. I'll have simulations tomorrow to help you find just the right amount of color to mix with your chalk.
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complete D1 basketball schedule is here (no thanks to the NCAA)
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After many years, I decided to modernize my logo. Thanks GIMP.
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RPI never ceases to amaze me. Penn (2-4) ranked
#2
in college baseball, above the 11-1 South Carolina team that swept them. Officially published by the NCAA:
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In this era of sports "analytics", it's a shame that sports leagues won't even provide a nice API for even the scores/schedules.
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Updated Kaggle dataset of all college football, basketball, baseball rankings I've ever collected:
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Welcome to the world Charles Wayne Massey. Sleep in heavenly peace.
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Vanderbilt 31 Florida 24
Florida 38 South Carolina 6
South Carolina 63 Tennessee 38
Tennessee 56 Vanderbilt 0
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Massey and Sagarin have trade secrets that aren't published. But yes, the basic ideas are rooted in linear and ELO (logistic) regression.
Part 1 in our new sports rankings series explains methodology of rankings by
@masseyratings
, Sagarin, +
@bburkeESPN
.
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Fibonacci time earlier today - it was the 1st second of 2nd minute of 3rd hour of 5th day of 8th month of 13th year of 21st century.
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BCS (2 team playoff) was vilified for not giving mid-majors enough access. It has been worse under the CFP. Where's Orin Hatch ? He raised a fury when it was Utah that didn't get a chance.
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@nntaleb
In computer programming, a "duck" is a distracting feature meant to be removed by managers that need to feel useful.
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@johnnygreavu
@NateSilver538
They should not have published this system so early in the season.
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Working on a sister site if you're interested in finance and the economy. e.g. interest rates and the stock market
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No Massey Ratings smartphone app, but adding the site to your homescreen is almost as good. Here's how on Android.
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It's good practice to throw away a sample of size 162 and replace it with one <=7. That's how I get my most interesting research results.
If you like sports and seeing the best teams succeed, few things should irritate you more than MLB using 5-games series in divisional rounds
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Still a few "votes" outstanding, but the Cincy
@GoBearcatsFB
just passed Notre Dame in the computer composite.
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Don't forget the statisticians' role in the Christmas story.
#Jesus
was born in Bethlehem because of the Roman census. (Luke 2)
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high school football has already started in AK and HI. Find your state, or local teams/games here:
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TX high school championship higher attendance than 13/14 college bowls played so far.
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NCAA bracket simulation (now cache-proof to get different results each time)
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Am I the only one who wishes we hadn't turned the NBA into a three-point shooting contest and MLB into a home run derby?
In 1989, five American League players hit 30 or more home runs. This year, there are five *Minnesota Twins* who have hit 30 or more home runs.
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Top 4 AP/Coaches, with computer composite as a tie-breaker. Would have duplicated the aggrandized CFP committee's work all 5 years.
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4 undefeated teams, 4 playoff slots. Justify the existence of a committee by giving
@UCF_Football
a chance.
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U.s. colleges should start in early August and be done with exams before Thanksgiving. This exam week nonsense between holidays is ridiculous.
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Just told my students that I use Bitcoin whenever I buy illegal drugs. They didn't quite understand the vacuously true statement.
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I have made all archived college football/basketball/baseball rankings available here: Share and enjoy!
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Purdue is the 29th school to hold the number 1 spot in the weekly college basketball composite, since 2003. Here are counts by school.
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Thanks for the heads-up.
D3 men:
D3 women:
I don't know if
@masseyratings
has seen the
#d3hoops
bracket yet. Any chance we can see this on the ratings site?
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Here's a utility I just built for myself to get a quick glance at word currencies (fiat, crypto, and hard)
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Eleven different teams with a no.1 "vote" in this week's composite:
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so far this season:
FBS vs. FCS 66-6
NCAA I vs II 27-1
NCAA II vs III 2-0
NCAA vs NAIA 14-14
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Interesting how FBS human polls generally agree with computer rankings, but FCS polls differ widely
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time to start talking about
#Djokovic
as GOAT. Check out his head-to-head records vs top opponents.
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Trying to implement geolocation to find nearby games - might not work in all browsers. If you try this, let me know your state and whether it appears to work. Thanks!
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Expecting our third child next month. Here's the binary pick sheet I'm using.
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64 rankings compiled - typically the top 45 should make the NCAA tournament
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Transitioning my math class examples from "as the crow flies" to "as the drone flies". Always trying to stay hip for the students.
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The problem is that taking a poorly taught statistics course can be worse than not having it at all.
"As for the next generation of high-schoolers: Statistics is calling."
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@cfbNate
@bcfremeau
@ESPN_BillC
@beta_rank_fb
@KFordRatings
@CFBWinningEdge
@beta_rank_fb
and
@CFBWinningEdge
: would you like me to include your rankings here ?
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This goes for sports "analytics"
What's with paternalistic calls to push more people of this or that sex or race to do a certain job or activity - and never mind that they aren't all that interested in it? (Of course, nobody calls for more female garbagepersons or more male veterinarians)
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Has anyone done a study of the environmental impact of doing so much shipping? Amazon model seems to burn lots more fuel and cardboard than Walmart model.
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Remember that time the AP poll jumped Texas from NR to no. 11 for beating Notre Dame by 3 points ? Computer composite had them at no. 35.
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(part 1 of 2) The perfect OT solution using NE-KC game as example:
(A) regulation ends in a tie, say 31-31
(B) coaches bid a yard line where they would be willing to take possession in lieu of a point. (e.g. NE bids own 15 and KC bids own 12)
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Remember your Sesame Street songs? "one of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong ..."
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High school football cycle:
St John Bosco 28, Mater Dei 0
Mater Dei 55, Kahuku 0
Kahuku 30, St John Bosco 23
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Just for fun - my system's top 30 FCS/1AA teams of all time (since 1978 season)
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Not that you'd find them on the NCAA website or anything, but here are this year's FBS neutral site games (missing any ?). Full schedule posted on my site next Monday.
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What a waste. Could have given every American $1 million instead.
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Unless it's a state run lottery, or futures markets, or other financial shenanigans run on Wall Street.
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college football ratings updated
HS ratings will update Monday morning
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I've noticed that casual fans generally refer to FBS as "D1" and everyone else (FCS,NCAA II,III,NAIA) as "D2".
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This is why we need a 1024 team playoff.
Always remember: When Harvard, Yale & Princeton didn't top early US News
#BestColleges
rankings, the statistician was replaced & algorithm adjusted.
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Just because it's not uniform doesn't mean it's not random.
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Would
@Tip
autograph this problem for me? I have a mini collection of such celebrity themed questions that have been autographed.
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I doubt any of my intro to stats students follow me, but this is today's quiz:
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Power5 is 46-1 vs the rest of college football so far. (26-1 vs rest of FBS, and 20-0 vs FCS). VT<ODU is the only blemish :-(
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Lots of parity in the NFL - I have about 13 pts difference between best and worst teams. Most years the range is 20+ points.
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No word yet on whether he'll fill out NIT, CBI, or CIT bracket.
President Trump will not fill out NCAA tournament bracket as Obama did
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RPI still good enough for NCAA women , why no NET like the men have ?
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what is the environmental impact of Prime? Can't be efficient for a UPS truck to deliver me coffee filters.
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Starting to compile preseason computer ratings for college football , schedule data are there for your convenience.
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