Liqian Ren
@liqian_ren
Followers
14,570
Following
996
Media
2,916
Statuses
10,197
Director of Modern Alpha @WisdomTreeFunds Host of China of Tomorrow, co-host Behind the Markets
US
Joined July 2018
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Memorial Day
• 757189 Tweets
Netanyahu
• 504157 Tweets
الاتحاد
• 214108 Tweets
Cristiano Ronaldo
• 159860 Tweets
Bill Walton
• 158226 Tweets
رونالدو
• 114423 Tweets
WE LOVE YOU NAMJOON
• 72693 Tweets
دوري روشن
• 67428 Tweets
WE LOVE YOU JUNGKOOK
• 65345 Tweets
Alejandra del Moral
• 63373 Tweets
WE LOVE YOU TAEHYUNG
• 61871 Tweets
كاس الملك
• 53165 Tweets
Arturo
• 45358 Tweets
الدوري السعودي
• 42090 Tweets
#KingsWorldCup
• 39801 Tweets
الدوري الذهبي
• 37652 Tweets
大雨警報
• 36699 Tweets
線状降水帯
• 32278 Tweets
الهداف التاريخي
• 23968 Tweets
Cubs
• 21430 Tweets
رامي ربيعه
• 21077 Tweets
Amine
• 19184 Tweets
単独CM
• 15263 Tweets
الموسم القادم
• 13795 Tweets
土砂降り
• 13373 Tweets
Bochum
• 10618 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
🧵 PBOC Current Monetary Policy Principal and key rates to watch.
The 7d Repo POLICY rate (Blue) has been significantly higher than Inter-bank MARKET rate (Orange), part reason for the 10bps reduction of policy rate
It's not lying flat yet.😂
/1
6
8
53
Situation in Peking Univ. (my college)
If there is one college that's politically sensitive, probably this one. Everyone knows where many past political movements start. /1
22
269
867
Within my Chinese American social circle every time there’s a banking crisis, someone will share this documentary and splashed an indignant headline: “Only bank prosecuted during whole 2008 financial crisis is this little Chinese American bank!”
30
144
722
Starting Oct. 15th, China will ban all academic tutoring, including 1-on-1 tutoring.
Will update people on how this is carried out as several nephews/nieces are taking the high school entrance test next year.
67
224
718
Lol:
While people debate on merits of Chinese/American schools, just want to share this high school in Shangdong rewards good grades with 5kg pork meat😂 (My own experience of school rewards are only books/pencils)
50
59
642
Quick anecdotal observation: China's high speed rail and govt investment in infra. like libraries, museums, etc.
1. These investment are highly prized locally. It's amazing media outside China mostly focus on wasted investment, which definitely exists.
21
103
603
Full menu of China-Central Asia summit.
Be happy China spending so much time and energy on food😂
32
84
487
Nov 23 31,444 cases ⬆️8.9% 1 death.
The slightly better mRNA is IRRELEVANT to China's Covid policy.
How many times will people continue believing this "if only China just mRNA" is beyond me. /1
Solution to this Chinese trade off: use the MRNA vaccines developed in the West
63
15
113
39
77
451
🧵A few nuances to understand the Henan County Bank protest:
The protest banners point to Henan Govt and Party Secretary Lou Yangsheng, but they are protesting at PBOC's Zhengzhou branch.
This location choice is very relevant to the case.
1/
16
116
400
Taiwan paid UK's ex-PM Liz Truss $110k for the photo-op of international support, and $150k for ex-state secretary Pompeo's TW visit.
Money talks, US rules😂
36
130
375
Interesting: In 1992, Mr. Qian Xuesen sent a letter to Vice Premier Zou Jiahua, in which he suggested that the country bypass traditional fuel vehicles and directly enter the manufacture of new energy vehicles to achieve overtaking in curves.
11
68
379
Thailand offering free vaccine shot (mostly mRNA not available in China) to travelers from China.
Vaccine tourism will be on for 2023.
26
100
373
Eat bitter means working hard and have grit. What’s wrong with that? Amazing it is considered negative in English, bc it’s Chinese? 😂
This NYT headline is a really good example of how translation can go wrong. It's true that 吃苦 literally means "eat bitter".
But it English it sounds alien and brutal. In Chinese, it's a standard expression. That doesn't mean it's okay, but it lands very differently.
51
55
441
68
29
327
🧵Yes, China is in a real estate bubble burst induced slow down. It's the first serious one since the system of state capitalism came into shape in last 40 years.
24
45
326
Underreported:
lots of people want to bring back lockdowns on social media.
The whole English news last two years reads like a giant pool of people against Covid Zero yet reality is even after Shanghai, there’s still significant support for Covid Zero.
45
61
311
Russian central bank says China's Yuan settlement has risk mainly from lack of hedging tool/free conversion.
Been selling Yuan and buying Euro/Dollar this year. It encourages companies try to maintain old contracts in unfriendly currencies(Dollar/Euro)
40
85
301
China originally wanted to be part of US space-tech ecosystem but got shut out of it, thus forced to develop mostly on its own. Generally people believe it's significantly behind US but good enough.
Is semiconductor likely follow space-tech?
41
39
277
Sec Yellen's down to earth carrying your own bags and in cross-body “who cares what others think" is getting a lot of good vibe on Chinese social media. (斜挎有範兒，不在乎別人）
23
22
227
China's Beidou GPS positioning system is so detailed, the instructions given while driving is constant/on-and-on.
Was also told by friend that Beidou system now more accurate in pinpoint location than US/European systems.
17
25
215
LoL video, highly recommend even if you don’t understand Chinese bc half in English.
New Oriental, the education tutoring company that was decimated, sells beef on video streaming service, but use the selling experience to teach/sell English tutoring, its original business.
16
33
212
Taiwan Foxconn CEO Terry Gou and third party candidate Ko Wen-je, looking at mainland right across on a night out talking life/politics. Shows how close some point is btw Taiwan and Mainland. (金門「迎城隍」，兩位阿伯柯文哲、郭台銘到小金門看廈門夜景)
28
45
214
Taiwan survey: Forever keeping current status quo (27.6%) first time higher than for Taiwan independence (25.2%)
31.9% keep the status quo for now and 8.5% wants unification.
39
75
209
The official is saying: Go back to your dorm. Today I will come and answer every question for each dorm until every dormitory has satisfying answer.
One student shouted, first tear down the wall.
Then a few students went up and torn down the wall.
4
32
203
🧵No one correctly predicted the exact 6 people got into the Politburo Standing Committee.
It's a sweep, All King's Men, or in Mahjong, All one color (清一色）, in Poker, a flush.
It's first time Pres. Xi got to pick his own, and he picked all his own men.
/1
8
34
195
Chinese version😂: Left(Pinky Patriotic Youth), "Me", Right(Liberal Democratic Youth)
7
38
188
Beware of statistics:
People keep using this chart to emphasize Taiwanese doesn't want unification, but rarely spell out what does Taiwanese want NOW?
28.7% Status quo decide later
28.5% Status quo forever
25.4% Status quo, toward independence
Regardless how you slice /1
We know that despite all of the Chinese influence operations, recruitments of agents in Taiwan and economic/military pressure, the Taiwanese people overwhelmingly reject reunification, with fewer than 6% desiring it as soon as possible and only 12% wanting it at all
22
31
190
8
40
193
2. Overall improvement of quality of life is large.
Imagine your travel time now suddenly cut by 1/2-2/3 btw cities, get to CA from NY in 2 hours instead of 6, or NY to China from 15 hours to 5 hours, NY to London in 3 hours. Philly to NY in 40min.
That's the experience.
8
19
183
🧵 China experimenting opening up as this Covid wave ongoing, as the low death rate is giving govt confidence to experiment.
Two big changes:
China modifies how Covid patients are directed. Low symptom cases now don't go to the hospital. /1
11
53
175
When China was India's current per capita income, its economic growth was +10%, much higher than India now. If China getting old before getting rich, India has even bigger problem.
That's why I am extremely skeptical on all the demographics impacting growth story, China or India
India officially overtook China as the most populous country in the world. Numerous pundits believe the “demographic dividend” is one of India’s greatest strength for its long term outlook.
We found this bafflingly superficial, if not intellectually dishonest.
5
16
53
24
31
172
This has been viral in a negative way on China’s social media.
It’s unfortunate. both US and China have many misunderstandings.
90s, US thought if only we trade with China, China will be like us. Which was wrong. Now US worry about China dominance, which will also be wrong.
46
20
176
3. Less than 6 hours high speed trip is much more comfortable than 2hr flight plus time to airport, bc the seats are more comfortable and much less lead time one needs, usually arriving 30 minutes early is enough to catch a high speed rail, w. security line very fast (<10min)
3
17
173
I am no military expert but help me understand:
Why US is not willing to go directly to war with Russia, which just invaded a country, but is willing to go directly to war with China, which from details show have relatively higher/comparable military capability as Russia. WHY?
95
22
167
Chinese embassy in US now scrapped need for appointment for visa application. People can just walk in after filling the online form.
It's a small step but the biggest obstacle I think still lack of affordable flights (price now 2-3 times higher than before) and other domestic
29
29
171
North Korea: temporarily forbid Chinese citizens traveling, NK citizens 30day quarantine upon entry.
When you have friends like this who needs enemies 😂
15
37
167
I certainly disagree that this is the general feeling in China, particularly if one gets out of big city intellectual circle and visit 4/5th tier small town red necks more.
.
@newyorker
has a new homepage this morning. Welcome to the world! Here's our top story module with
@eosnos
's piece on China's Age of Malaise. Scroll down for the Lede, Comment, Critics, Ideas, fiction, humor, puzzles & games, and more! Come visit us at
12
38
114
14
8
162
Chinese ambassador
@AmbXieFeng
jacket is traditionally translated in English as Mao Jacket (left). But in Chinese it is called Sun Yat-sen Jacket, as it's invented by ROC/Taiwan founder Sun Yat-sen.
Newer style better translated Modern Mao Jacket w. Chinese Characteristics?
26
25
161
CCTV taking 1% in Tiktok parent, Beijing TV taking 1% in Kuaishou, but most yesterday's news becomes 404ed (censored, the code for web access error).
7
61
160
Whoever wrote this BS, do u know that under Republic of China/Taiwan's constitution, Mongolia can be interpreted as technically part of Republic of China/Taiwan, but not part of mainland China which acknowledged Mongolia's independence.
“Mongolia’s independent political status challenges the CCP historical narrative that everything once part of the Qing Empire is now part of the PRC - the very argument underpinning Beijing’s assertions about Taiwan.”
26
99
297
16
18
155
China released Q1 GDP 4.5%. The easiest to manipulate fixed asset growth 5.1%. Youth (16-24) unemployment rate 19.6%(!).
6
22
159
🧵I am increasingly skeptical of the young people more for TW independence story that media feeds us, now that I am looking at the data myself.
In the most recent opinion survey, the clearest age trend lines are: The younger, the more for 3rd party (Grey).
16
33
154
Wechat group chats suggest agreement reached on how Covid rules will work for students and the student who torn down the wall will not be punished.
It’s not a big event compared to many similar events at PKU but social media absolutely amplified it.
0
23
152
China's Covid death is 896,000?
Govt. expert officially said Covid death rate by Dec. 2022 is 0.08%. It also said 80% Chinese infected during this wave = 890k deaths.
24
42
143
The leaked meeting notes about possible change of Covid Zero by ex-China CDC Chief Scientist Zeng Guang with an investment bank.
His point is re-open will be a bumpy 5-6 months process. /1
11
42
141
It remains to be seen how things progress next few days. There was some situations in other colleges before all highly censored.
Many of these events are highly charged and uncertain, very dependent on how well the university admin. handles it.
3
14
137
The most creative Halloween cosplay in Shanghai?
The sign: "Study Medicine won't save Chinese"
Dressed as 1930s famous writer Lu Xun, reciting a paragraph from him: "
I hope that all Chinese young people will get rid indifference, without having to listen to the words of those
15
26
144
Ex-Prime minister Zhu Rongji: “why we always create problems for ourselves? 我们为什么要自己和自己过不去呢？”
11
23
138
Lol:
An industry is high tech if China couldn’t make it, but it’s manufacturing and overcapacity when China can make it. (中国做不出来的高科技，做出来的就是制造业，产能过剩😂）
11
11
138
Lol:
China social media: Why US got the window view seats? They getting better deal.
US social media: why only low level official at the airport? And no red carpet.
13
13
138
Indoor plumbing now in >73% of rural Chinese residents.
If one can't understand why this statistics is important to understsand the strong support for the Party, one probably can't understand why Xiong'an is chosen as the new city to take some functions from Beijing.
16
16
139
4. Physical distance lessened psychological distance, making traveling in China whether for business and leisure much more efficient and comfortable.
For longer distance, the well off is going to fly. But for the vast masses, high speed made traveling a significant improvement.
1
14
139
6. Many of these investments are not easy for people in the US to visualize bc. it is a rich country.
But for typical Chinese, these kinds of investment, even just being able to go to a public library with air-conditioning is a luxury, it is significant improvement.
3
11
138
Taiwan says answer will be "no" for inviting mainland college students by the ex-President Ma's foundation for exchange.
For those who pounded me on labeling current administration/DPP the "Not Pro-engagement w. mainland Party", hehe
20
15
129
Actually China’s century of humiliation are mainly against UK(opium war) 🇬🇧Russia(🇷🇺took most China land) and Japan🇯🇵 (occupation).
If that’s the basis for impossible China-UK reconciliation, then it should extend to impossible Russia-China alliance. Can’t just pick one.
Know who Beijing believes kicked off the Century of Humiliation? Not 🇺🇸 or 🇯🇵.
It was 🇬🇧. There are Brits who think they can cozy up to Beijing. That's delusional. There's a special place in hell reserved for 🇬🇧 in key strains of Chinese nationalism.
88
43
250
24
13
132
List of things foreign visitor have trouble in the new digitalized world in China: really mainly cellphone linked app use for train/subway etc and payment troubles.
A digital YUAN rollout w/out need of local bank account to foreign users will help solve many of the problems here
33
12
128
From social media: How people can be so quickly taking something abnormal as normal part of life:
a video of someone just sitting down for a rest in subway and others started showing her the green health code:
7
37
121
Lol:
Q: It’s Winter Solstice holiday, what holiday treat do you eat at your locality?
A: ibuprofen 😂
2
30
126
A pure guess: Many things like China not releasing Econ. data on time, or Pres. didn't show up after a foreign trip, or the below, likely the simpler answer of health or Covid protocol more likely than coup and conspiracy.
Early drama: Hu Jintao seen being led out soon after reporters are led into the main hall
837
6K
15K
18
19
125
🧵Many people were looking for an aggressive speech, but they mostly got a standard boiler Party speech.
The speech theme translated would be "People First, Make China Great Again and Security, we won't be Soviet"
Still a few notables.
/1
2
17
124
Think real hard why Shanghai. It is the highest labor cost place in China. Labor cost is only one factor when moving manufacturing to other areas like south east Asia/Mexico/India.
Tesla opening Megapack factory in Shanghai to supplement output of Megapack factory in California
6K
5K
56K
11
15
120
April 10th: Guangzhou: acknowledging community spread already happened yesterday, April 11th 0am local time, meaning in ~4 hours, anyone need 48hr test negative leave city.
Schools change to online. Clear signal lockdown coming. /1
7
54
116
Vice premier Sun Chunlan, lockdown enforcer, meeting with Covid experts.
Xinhua news now has no “dynamic zero” in the language.
Expert Wu Zunyou （吴尊友）not listed in the 8 experts list.
14
31
115
China put the whole Hainan island under a free trade zone, many rules similar to HK. (15% tax rate for company and person!)
It seemed it will be an experimental zone for the govt. to try things out, like Shenzhen becoming a special zone in 1980.
12
18
110
8. Most people will say China's already over-invested. Yes and No. The past investment had done its job.
However, the next stage of investment requires more understanding of people and community's micro needs. That's harder.
2
13
115
10. For the constant China's going to collapse or in crisis talk, sometimes, it really only needs people to visit as an ordinary person and get a feel oneself.
3
11
115
5. Many other investments are similar. During this trip, access to bathroom now not a problem, though the squatting types still exist, but increasingly replaced by modern types. The smell of bathroom still a big issue for kids from US, but compared to before, much better.
2
12
114
I think this assessment of Huawei phone is close to what I think: it’s a small breakthrough using software to solve the bottleneck of hardware.
Important is a client(Huawei) now made it commercially viable and remain to see whether commercially makes sense given higher cost.
19
16
113
lol：
Is the direction of AI correct? We were hoping AI for cleaning dishes and house so we can draw. Now AI started drawing and we are still making dinner.
So true! 😂
14
30
111
Not able to build things in the US at relatively competitive total cost is a major hinderance to US competitiveness.
2a/ Chip manufacturing
TSMC CFO estimates that N3 (3nm) Fab 18 in Tainan will cost $60B for capacity of 200k wafers per month ($300M/1k wafers).
Meanwhile $10-12B for Fab 21 Phase I in Arizona using N5 technology for capacity of 20k wafers per month ($600M per 1K wafers).
2
4
43
3
14
110
Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei's Q/A :
He worshiped the west when young bc. western technology so advance. Even now after being severely sanctioned, not against US. Wants to be the best so have to learn from the best and believes US innovation capacity will continue on its course
18
15
109
Highest per capita on luxury brands is South Korea. Japan was once luxury brand haven until lying flat in economy.
So disappointed people actually believe this:
"China the most fertile ground for luxury brands bc traditions/religions were destroyed, unlike Japan/India"😂
Penetrative understanding of China luxury market. I had a recent conversation w a leading authority of global luxury industry. His insights on China are fabulous. He said CN is the most fertile ground for luxury brands. Because CCP has destroyed tradition / religions in CN, and
64
103
444
16
13
110
The ONLY way people are going to get vaccinated now is let cases slowly roll over the country, forcing people to make a hard choice.
It is RATIONAL for old people not to get vaccinated when there is almost no cases. /3
6
8
110
Sometimes it's an eerie feeling reading both US/China news and see some similarities.
Chinese govt. was in a bit of campaign persuading overeducated youth to accept blue collar physical jobs. /1
via
@WSJ
4
13
109
7. During out stay, most days are 90degree+. Many of my families are middle class yet few of them has whole house air-conditioning, mostly room-by-room air-conditioning, which means hot kitchen and bathrooms.
Effect of investment in infrastructure and govt services is visible.
3
9
107
Good thing it’s Canadian smoke. If it’s Chinese smoke, Sec Blinken will need to delay the China trip one more time. Always see the positive side😂
9
4
104
Lots of interesting statistics of unconfirmed circulating Govt Covid meeting minutes, confirming govt tracks everything:
1. Severe case rate 1.83% (I’ve been using 2% as ballpark)
2. Nationally ~20% infected, Beijing Sichuan 50%
8
26
104
9. So no, China is not over-invested, it just now needs a different way of govt investment. (政府投资该怎么做需要改变，而不是政府不该继续投资。）
3
9
106
Singapore is the best case scenario for future China's political reform, even though it may not be considered democracy by US standards.
One Party rule doesn't automatically mean not democratic. Japan's been mostly under one Party rule.
34
16
104
Comments section rolling:
"Nothing to eat"
"Nothing to eat"
Many provinces use wechat live streaming for Covid press conference w. default allowing comments. Shanghai learned quickly in April to turn off the comment section as it became rolling protests. Jilin forgot the lesson
8
48
103
1. Never understand people putting demographics as serious risk factor for China. It's not top 3 and not even top 6 in my list.
2. Every country looks so full of problems if it were under the same kinds of magnifying glasses people put US/China under.
21
9
102
🧵April 11th: Shanghai's worst has passed.
Current China's economic/Covid problem is Logistics, Logistics, Logistics.
Baidu congestion index, which is highly correlated w. GDP for 2022 was down 6-7% y/y.
/1
2
20
99
Already vaccinated, already tested, coming from low risk area, normal body temperature 36.5(97.7 degree F).
Lol GM
7
13
90
Why China didn't approve Pfizer/Moderna vaccine? Maybe bc. even if approved, both would unlikely to supply much.
Pitting 1.2billion against 200mil richer Chinese who could afford foreign vaccines are going to be good for vaccine takeup rate and world peace, right?
27
8
78
The protestors used English banner and used Chinese banners to openly call out the Party Secretary by name, hung Mao's portraits, and chanted for Pres. Xi to investigate Henan Govt.
All these tactics are meant to show it's not against central govt. /3
3
6
90
People talking about TikTok divestment as if there's no public opinion in China.
If there are 80% people support a "ban unless divest" approach in the US, then there are probably 80% people support "no divest" in China.
28
9
97
China did vaccine drive after Shanghai wave. Local govt. finally increased 60yr+ rate from ~60% to ~90%, after many soft and hard sticks!
80yr+ rate of ~65% is as much as it could get without vaccine mandate. It did try a few times to do vaccine mandate but got pushed back /2
4
8
94
US F1 student visa issuance to Chinese back to pre-pandemic level.
Anecdotally I personally feel negative sentiment to Chinese students have increased in US AND in China. The latter is probably not as understood and appreciated here.
12
17
92
11. Many of the pain points of visiting China is bc. China suddenly had a digital transformation, sped up by Zero Covid.
Digital system set up for local population first, thus lots of bugs for passport holders and foreign phones. (目前数字系统很多都对护照持有者外国电话不兼容。
8
6
92
🧵Several local headlines all share the same root problem: local govt. are are short of money.
Elderly in Huhan protesting when govt. decided to take the employee contribution portion of health savings account from individuals. /1
3
20
91
High speed rail has a round of price increase, some close to 20%.
Many of the infrastructure (utility/rail) has seen significant price increase, as govt now itself short of money, thus these SOEs, with natural monopoly power, can increase price.
When pressed, the response was
19
19
91
Never under-estimate how bad things could go in China,
BUT
Never under-estimate how much people outside China want to see a tank...
7
12
88
lol
Hilarious video but extremely hard to translate. Someone very talented wrote the US news from TX governor’s view, but in Chinese classics and older Chinese general to the Emperor setup.
(能看中文的，保证笑死😆：我朝自立国以来，驰骋四海，席卷八荒😂）
14
33
90
So don't expect another govt. vaccine drive. I've tweeted many local govt. tactics, even threatening old age benefits, still most people don't bulge to get vaccinated.
What's going on NOW of rising cases is the only feasible "vaccine drive"! /4
11
7
89
Peking University essentially telling students: make a choice now, go back home for the summer, or stay in the dorm to face possible lockdown.
University: 37k students, we can not guarantee timely food delivery in a lockdown.
It also hope students don't make trouble.
3
46
85
People's Daily reiterating "Private business and Private Entrepreneurs are our own people 民营企业和企业家是我们自己人" 😂 If this point needs to be repeated so many times, you know private entrepreneurs are on the fence.
/1
11
22
89
Three year anniversary of Dr. Li Wenliang admonished by police for posting on Dec 30th 2019 about 7 SARS like cases.
Also three year anniversary China told US about the cases?
Curious:
Did any reporter dug up why US never shared the communication from China with US public?
8
24
86
🧵 What to expect when expecting: possible China Covid trajectory next 5 months
Q: Will there be more lockdowns
A: Yes, but the details of lockdowns have shifted to mostly restrict consumption business like movie theaters, not production places. Mainly to flatten the curve. 1/
5
18
87
China Mobile dispelled rumor and says will continue work with apple to sell iphone15.
I think people are over-reacting to the China govt ban iphone news.
10
18
83
A big part of manufacturing supply chain is parts delivery. China’s manufacturing are centered along east coast for a reason.
Put a statics on how fast average stuff moves with/between these countries, this alternative falls apart.
My piece this week explores how a patchwork of Asian economies from Hokkaido to Gujarat stacks up as an alternative to China for global manufacturers.
Whether it works in practice is a test of both cross-border business and a nascent geopolitical order.
31
294
1K
9
14
86
Shijiazhuang now won't require subway/bus for PCR test and confirmed many neighborhoods not requiring PCR test.
The cities most aggressive in Covid Zero is now most aggressive for Covid One😂
5
21
84
All's fair that ends fair?😂
China's media influencer, Mr. Hu Xijin, who've invested 600k Yuan in China A shares, asked another very pro-China influencer Sima Nan to sell his American house to invest in A shares to back up his claim of patriotism.
11
16
83
Thanks for labeling me a "Chinese business elite", please donate $100k to make me an elite.
Don't like the content, start name calling.
India will be top growth country but demographics is not the main factor.
@liqian_ren
is in a panic, and has no case here, just argues “ demographics don’t matter”…odd..
-
It’s been interesting to watch, as China continues a downhill trajectory to its historical position of not being a world leader, the panic in Chinese business elites.
10
0
2
16
3
86