Joe Gallagher
@joedgallagher
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socialist | data scientist ⚽ | former evolutionary biologist | #LFC legacy fan
Liverpool, UK
Joined April 2013
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They're no longer trying to hide their agenda: this government is banning all forms of meaningful protest. Today it is introducing yet another law of the kind you would expect in Egypt or China.
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this is what you get when you only talk about 'protections' and 'respect' for referees and zero mechanisms of accountability for bad refereeing, it's ruining the game
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@BeardedGenius
stupid conservative = Jordan Peterson
stupid liberal = Stephen Fry
stupid leftist = Slavoj Žižek
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As many of us return to work from holidays, a reminder (including to self) that working long hours is the workplace risk factor that causes the most deaths
#ReduceHours
to protect
#WorkersHealth
✊
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penalties scored/taken by 🏴 players before last night (all senior clubs):
Kane: 44/51
Rashford: 13/15
Maguire: 5/9
Sterling: 4/9
Mount: 4/5
Sancho: 5/5
Trippier: 2/4
Henderson: 1/3
Phillips: 2/3
Grealish: 1/2
Rice: 1/2
Pickford: 1/1
Shaw: 1/1
Stones: 1/1
Walker: 1/1
Saka: 0/0
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New R package, 'soccermatics' ⚽📦 pretty
#dataviz
of
#football
player x,y-data using ggplot …
#rstats
@soccermatics
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alternative: 𝘽𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙠𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙋𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙎𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙤𝙣
eligibility:
✅ 21 or under
✅ 1500+ minutes
✅ first 1500+ minute season in a top tier league
BREAKING: The nominees for the Premier League Barclays Young Player of the Season award are in! 👀
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most minutes played (all competitions) by a 17 year old in Europe's top 10 leagues since 2010:
4,433: Pedri (2020) 🥴
4,098: Romelu Lukaku (2010)
3,948: Youri Tielemans (2014)
3,810: Gianluigi Donnarumma (2016)
3,466: Matthijs de Ligt (2017)
3,451: Leon Bailey (2015)
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Absolutely made up to say I'll be starting a new position as a Data Scientist at
@OptaPro
next week! Working with football data = living the dream! ⚽️🤩
And wouldn't have happened without sharing what I was plugging away at on Twitter -- so keep at it if it's what you want too!
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Transfer Portal preprint is now live: a framework to simulate event-level performance of players following a simulated transfer to any club - with an example on Rennes wingers past, present and future
with
@DanDinsdale
and coming soon to
@OptaAnalyst
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goalless streaks in PL 2020-21
surely there can't be many worse runs than Liverpool's 93(!) shots worth 7.72 xG over nearly 9 hrs between 27th Dec and 28th Jan
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introducing the Automated 'Unlucky Team' Narrative Maker
four most unlikely goalless streaks in PL so far this season
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After seeing (24 yr old) Ruben Dias and (5th 1500+ minute season) Marcus Rashford in the Young PotS shortlist, an alternative:
𝘽𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙠𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙋𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙎𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙤𝙣
Eligibility:
✅ 21 or under
✅ 1500+ minutes
✅ first 1500+ minute season in a top tier league
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top 10 progressors at
#EURO2020
🇪🇸& 🇮🇹 predictably dominate but Kroos 🇩🇪, Maehle 🇩🇰, Shaw 🏴 & Stones 🏴 also there
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Salah's goal against Everton tonight was the fastest a team has scored a goal after their opponent hit the woodwork (13 seconds) in
@OptaJoe
Premier League history (2009-present), beating the old record set by Steven Fletcher against Fulham in 2012-13 (15 seconds). End to end.
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who were the winners and losers of yesterday's botched
#ChampionsLeagueDraw
?
Villarreal and Atleti with the most favourable turnaround in the second draw
Inter and Sporting with the least
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had enough of
@xGPhilosophy
sponging off the analytics community and undermining public understanding of metrics for engagement
doesn't even adjust for multiple shots in a possession judging by the consistent overestimation vs Caley's reports 🧐
when you are definitely contributing to a community and not leeching off it to sell books
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who was the best
@premierleague
bastard in 2021?
introducing the Carton d'Or (birthed by
@EveryTeam_Mark
):
most fouls made without being booked
Mason Mount leads for most of the year until a yellow in Dec, leaving 🤜Che Adams🤛 to win by default (despite not playing again)
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if you're wondering how the UK public is dealing with its new anti-protest legislation, skim the 1000+ QTs and comments here not only defending the driving of a 2 ton vehicle into a protestor's head but insisting that it's a drivers right to run over anyone who gets in their way
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Part 1/26 on why
@trentaa98
and
@andrewrobertso5
are the best full-back pairing in world football: the crossfield pass.
(Not sure if I'm joking yet or not.)
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only took 600 days since pretty much every epidemiologist stated that COVID is airborne for the gov't to issue useful public guidance instead of pretending that hand washing does anything
When you’re inside with others, open windows regularly to stop COVID-19 hanging around.
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.
@TwitterSupport
unsuspend
@C_Carpenter14
: he has TRANSFORMATIVE USE of SHORT clips for EDUCATIONAL purposes and NOT FOR PROFIT
all the criteria for FAIR USE
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Joelinton just broke his duck of >1000 minutes without scoring in the EPL
and that was only his 3rd longest dry spell for Newcastle since joining 🏜️
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a
@StatsPerform
#ProForum
thread with quick summary and a few slides per presentation 🧵
(full videos should be public in a few weeks)
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horseshoe theory is nazi propaganda designed to equate fascism with anti-fascism and promote taking the middle ground between the two (fascism)
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..it's their disdain for the 'less educated' fans, players, and coaching staff (excerpt from the book below)
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working class in Britain now defines people who drive SUVs and BMWs who'd rather drag protestors off the street than turn in an hour late to work
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84% of 🇧🇴 Bolivia's all-time wins have came at home
47% of home games won
9% of away games won
Being acclimatised to 13.2% effective oxygen percentage at 3657m is a hell of a home advantage 🏔️
🎙 Thierry Henry: "When I see people having a go at Messi, I laugh. People forget that last month he went to play in Ecuador and then he went to play in Bolivia. You can't even walk in Bolivia! Players coming from Europe, you'll pass out."
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a few slides from our talk at
@ground_guru
's Big Data event, showing off some of
@StatsPerform
's latest tools for player recruitment - some in prod, some still in dev
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updated {soccermatics} ⚽️📦 to work with
#rstats
v4.1.0 after some bugs
resurrected the oldskool soccerFlow and soccerSpokes functions for visualising passing flows and passing wagon wheels (similar to passing radars)
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cannot think of anything more british than pinning a resolute belief in our own moral superiority on an inadequately small and already-compromised act of performative tokenism - and then not having the conviction to do even that
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@BassTunedToRed
and how often has the person booked for celebrating not even scored the goal haha
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a peak at
@StatsPerform
's
#ProForum
talk - using a GNN to model expected pass receiver probability (xReceiver) and attacking threat (xThreat) frame by frame and deriving Defensive Value as defensive movements which disrupt xT, Active Runs as attacking movements which increase xR
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they foster misunderstanding with narratives around noisy (e.g. "Messi scored a 0.01 xG shot but missed a 0.75 xG shot") or irrelevant outcomes ("Fernandes has 6.93 xG from penalties"), shamelessly stole from half the analytics community to shill their book, but most of all...
@joedgallagher
@xGPhilosophy
It would be nice if you could explain to us the genera public what's wrong there. Most of us don't know.
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£300 per MWh in UK compared to £3.50 in Portugal
8,470% higher
Portugal is currently getting 97% of its electricity from renewables, and it's exporting a lot of excess capacity to Spain.
Wind is currently supplying 64% of Portugal's power. As a result, power prices are just €4/MWh at the moment.
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made up to help the nerds further ruin football by adding another metric to our toolkit, Expected Pass (xP)
just as made up to shoehorn a SHAP plot into a blog 😍
𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 (𝐱𝐏) 🔦
xG, xA, xGoT etc etc. We now want you to introduce you to the concept of xP: expected pass completion.
@joedgallagher
puts the spotlight on the new
@StatsPerform
football metric with this introductory explainer. ⬇️
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@vboykis
@BenInquiring
I thought it's only a Neural Network if you run it in TensorFlow; if you code it by hand it's called a Manuel Neuer.
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more detailed look at the advantage over the opposition in Draw
#1
vs Draw
#2
all using
@StatsPerform
's Power Rankings
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there's a lot to digest with these plots so here's an annotated version!
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@GraceOnFootball
like the world's shittest transfer deadline day checking the TL every 10 mins
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Jedward being one of the leading white voices of actual opposition against british colonialism atm is quite telling
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UK media ramping up its manufactured consent machine for the food-water-energy crisis
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@BeardedGenius
the question was *who do stupid people think are clever* btw, not necessarily who is stupid - each of these is clever enough to run a good grift lol
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imo Soccermatics by
@Soccermatics
is still hands down the best intro book
but there's thousands of high quality blog posts which contain as much useful info as some entire books - this list by
@AnEnglishGoat
is a good place to start
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Here are the slides for my
#satRdayNCL
talk on
#rstats
package {soccermatics}. There's not a whole lot of text so I'll add a link for the audio once it's available!
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@weirdfigs
@ripeacsky
good point, I think libs being unconcerned with anything beyond their few social democratic reforms means they're wilfully ignorant of western imperialism - even supportive of it in order to strengthen the metropole - and makes them more adherent to colonial tropes than ever
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fun variation of Breakout Player of the Season for the last 10 PL seasons:
✅ players <21 at start of season
✅ 1500+ mins in season
✅ no breakout seasons in other Big 5 leagues
✅ can only win the award once
alternative: 𝘽𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙠𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙋𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙎𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙤𝙣
eligibility:
✅ 21 or under
✅ 1500+ minutes
✅ first 1500+ minute season in a top tier league
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Gabriel Jesus drops off a little but expected to do everything better than Aubameyang, Lacazette or Nketiah - everything except xG anyway 🤔
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we need to nationalise energy
millions of us are suffering so that shareholders can pocket their extra billions
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Emiliano Buendía storms this season's Carton d'Or in the PL: most fouls without a booking (43)
by far the highest fouls total in the big 5 leagues as well
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experimenting with some new ideas for passmaps after re-reading
@unravelsports
' Pass Map 2.0 post recently
first, team-level combination passmaps:
average pass start, end locations for top passer-receiver pairs (🇪🇸 v 🇸🇪)
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only 9 players have accrued more minutes than Pedri (4,369) by his age in Europe's top 10 leagues
(all senior club + international minutes; since 1st Aug 2010)
most minutes played (all competitions) by a 17 year old in Europe's top 10 leagues since 2010:
4,433: Pedri (2020) 🥴
4,098: Romelu Lukaku (2010)
3,948: Youri Tielemans (2014)
3,810: Gianluigi Donnarumma (2016)
3,466: Matthijs de Ligt (2017)
3,451: Leon Bailey (2015)
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still early days obvs but interestingly out of the central three so far this season, Elliott is both attempting the most difficult passes (0.78 xP on average) and completing the most more than expected (6.2 more passes completed per 100 than expected)
Ever wanted to quantify the way in which Wijnaldum will be missed by Liverpool? This holds an answer.
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player-level goalless xG streaks now
no prizes for guessing the player with the coldest streak in PL 2020-21 with 4.67 xG accrued over nearly 2000 minutes 🥶
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Here's a few slides from
@StatsPerform
's presentation on player role discovery for those who missed it at the
#OptaProForum
this week. Sorry-not-sorry for the gratuitous focus on
@LFC
.
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best WC Final ever but especially if you missed the first 80 mins of it and all previous Finals
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the biggest goalless xG runs in the last 10 PL seasons
a couple of people guessed it: Crystal Palace had an even longer dry spell than Liverpool in 2017 with 8.64 xG(!) - which stretched over two seasons from 14th May in 2016/17 to 14th October in 2017/18
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the media sat on the Xmas party story for 12 months
other stories this week: Nationality & Borders Bill to strip citizenship from 6m people, Police Bill to imprison anyone protesting, new variant with unknown severity tearing through population, cancelling Xmas again, etc
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Being a centrist means sitting on the fence no matter how disparate the two ideas being discussed are.
One person wants to serve beans on toast for dinner, one wants to serve literal shit? How about we compromise by eating shit on toast?
Everything is so ludicrously tribal these days. Huge crowds on a beach: one side says it’s fine. Other side says it’s bringing another Covid 19 wave. Huge crowds protesting against racism: side who says it’s fine on beach, says it will cause 2nd wave. Other side says it’s fine.
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Slides and audio from my talk on the soccermatics
#rstats
📦 at Newcastle satRdays now available (as well as talks from
@thomasp85
,
@TMrtSmith
,
@TheStephLocke
, and more)!
(Note: I'm working on reducing my reliance on the word "erm" 😳😅)
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Creating pass maps in
#Python
: plotting how a player moves the ball. Learn about building and improving them here:
#100DaysOfCode
#dataviz
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TFW still learning matplotlib subplots
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quick maffs: it'd take 7,560,000,000 cold washes to take 66,000 cars off the street for a year
the futility of individual action
The real headline here is that it would take every single person in the UK to change how they wash their clothes to compensate for the environmental damage drivers are doing in just one mid-size London borough.
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full presentation for this now available here
a peak at
@StatsPerform
's
#ProForum
talk - using a GNN to model expected pass receiver probability (xReceiver) and attacking threat (xThreat) frame by frame and deriving Defensive Value as defensive movements which disrupt xT, Active Runs as attacking movements which increase xR
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once again, PL confirming that dangerous tackles are only a red if the player on the end of them doesn't manage to dodge the worst of it
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wish the game was at Anfield so we could brick our own bus
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this is literally still up on the website
'No Room For Racism'
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Cheeky throw-in routine from
@LFC
pointed out by
@JonnyWhitmore14
at
#OptaProForum
.
Henderson looks round (1), spots a run from Milner (2), and physically blocks Hughes from getting closer (3) until after Milner has a free pass (4).
Led to a shot on target only 13s later.
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