Charlie Petty
@incredutility
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toddler alignment researcher / views are my own and do not reflect those of @raebanay / give me feedback: https://t.co/zbYDCU9oF9
New York City
Joined September 2023
I went on @DevAndResearch with @_rossry to talk about investing in vaccines and drugs for neglected public health challenges, and what we’re working on at GHIC.
This week on @DevAndResearch, I sat down with @incredutility to talk about:.• are there profitable investments in global public health? (and are there hundreds of millions of dollars of them?).• what makes investing in public health is harder (and easier) than conventional
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Whoever is masterminding the vast pharma conspiracy should be fired. Merely extending the life of a single Merck oncology blockbuster by a year would blow the entire hep b market out of the water.
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Re Hep b vaccines and accusations of pharma pressure:. - GSK (an EU/UK company) sells < $1b of all Hep products .- Merck doesn’t even break out hep b from vaccine sales .- Dynavax is a struggling small cap with ~ $300m of sales.
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1. Massachusetts > . 2. This is remarkable! MA has multiple hollowed-out legacy industrial cities and a bunch of sprawl poverty. That they can compete with the apex math city-state is crazy to me.
Massachusetts, which invented the idea of public education to win the war against Satan (long story), routinely outscores China and Japan on statewide standardized tests and is really only in competition with Singapore.
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This is a fun dinner party trick: most people guess that this number is closer to total healthcare spend, not <10% of it.
Remarkable that US spending on pharmaceuticals is just ~1.6% of GDP. Amazingly good value for money considering the welfare gains. (And especially given the extent to which the US subsidizes the rest of the world.).
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We invented cancer vaccines 50 years ago, we just didn’t know it.
The long term data on newborn hepatitis B vaccination shows it reduces the incidence of liver cancer by 84% and death from liver disease by 70%. This comes from a large cluster RCT in which entire towns were randomly selected to give the hepatitis B vaccine to all newborns.
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There are some companies working on clinical trial recruitment and data analysis, but both of these are pretty hardcore real world coordination and execution problems that seem somewhat stubborn to radical displacement in the short term.
Nice essay on some of the key challenges with developing drugs. A good point about near-term AI applications: we are not really pointing them at the slow or expensive parts of drug development.
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Nice essay on some of the key challenges with developing drugs. A good point about near-term AI applications: we are not really pointing them at the slow or expensive parts of drug development.
Tech has produced several trillion-dollar companies. Biotech has produced none. If I were completely impartial to what disease I treat or what modality I use, could any of the existing company-building strategies create a trillion-dollar outcome? This essay is a set of musings on
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RT @mhjrad: you’re facing mitochondrial challenges. I’m facing Golgi apparatus challenges. We are not the same.
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This is such a great observation! So funny - this doesn’t feel strange at all in PE/VC, but it would feel insane to discuss these things at a dinner party with e.g., an architect or even a tech executive.
one part that i really appreciated about working in venture capital was that when you met new investors it wasn't gauche to ask a ton of questions about the financial incentives of the fund/family office they worked for to get a very clear picture of their financial incentives.
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RT @FatherChrisVor1: If in disagreement you find yourself attacking not ideas but a person—their identity, work, or dignity—stop immediatel….
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RT @MartinBJensen: Some underrated topics in longevity:.- Chronic infections as disease/age drivers.- How do germline cells stay young with….
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RT @thefox: Awesome to see so much excitement for the new Google Finance! We’re continuing to expand access in the U.S… But :) we've hear….
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RT @jordanschnyc: People forget how horrific the one child policy was. From Dan Wang's new book
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Great project on forecasting US biomedical and science funding with some reassuring results. Kudos to OP for putting this together.
Excited that Open Phil is funding this @metaculus forecasting tournament on the future budgets and spending of NIH and NSF, and surprised that forecasters are expecting basically no cuts
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RT @alexkesin: I am consistently surprised by how much 2000s era Novartis was ahead of its time. Mark Fishman and Jeremy Levin betting $60M….
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