Hilliard MacBeth
@hmacbe
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When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash 2nd Ed- June 2018; ski, golf - 46 years as investment professional
Edmonton
Joined September 2011
new link for interview
Is Canada's Economy on the Verge of a Financial Crisis? https://t.co/jIFiorMZvh
#cdnpoli #topoli #vanre #whenthebubblebursts
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"externalities". terrible name. but the bigger issue is the ideology. "we can trust the market to do the right thing". but often the market doesn't.
Perhaps the greatest failure of the economics profession has been our inability to sell the idea that we should tax "bads" like congestion and pollution. One reason building is so expensive is that we have so many regulations instead of just prices.
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Or. You could just admit you don’t like ‘windmills’ and save yourself the bullsh!t excuses.
The Trump admin’s action addresses emerging national security risks, including the rapid evolution of relevant adversary technologies & vulnerabilities created by large-scale offshore wind projects with proximity near our east coast population centers. https://t.co/CC4p4f1dOq
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A good summary of what happened with solar energy. We're prone to magical thinking on this, but Chinese people aren't made of magic: They just made millions of units and got to compound lots of small engineering improvements. This is how all manufacturing learner curves work.
How did solar get cheap? Phase 1: 1950-1990s - NASA Solar was invented in the US by Bell labs and pretty much only used by NASA who needed something very lightweight to power their space assets. Phase 2: 2000 - Energiewind The German government passed a law where it guaranteed
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Earth needs SO many solar cells. All the coal generation in the world isn't enough for China *now*, let alone China in 10 years. Then bring India to that same level. Africa. South America. Solar is essential for global abundance.
China’s electricity consumption has grown by more than: - 1 India in 4 years - 1 EU in 6 years - 1 U.S. in 11 years
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An absolute freak show of record high temperatures will take place this coming week in the US. On Christmas day, large parts of the central US will see temperatures more than 22°C (40°F) above average. Source: https://t.co/HFupZDxCS5
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Based on the 11-year running mean (and on Earth's Energy Imbalance), the near-term rate of warming could turn out much higher than the linear 2010-2025 extrapolation. The next El Niño peak will be very informative for the rate of global warming, as @DrJamesEHansen points out:
Let’s see what we can learn from temperature change in the next two years – https://t.co/njUDhxsSGp Also available on Substack: https://t.co/E6AryVycEc
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Everyone is watching the chip war. Nobody is watching the power war. That’s the trap. China’s power grid: 3.9 terawatts America’s power grid: 1.3 terawatts Read that again. China has 3x the electrical capacity of the United States. They added more power generation between
China is dominating the worldwide race for power: China now has a record 3.75 terawatts of power generation capacity. That capacity has doubled over the last 8 years. This is nearly 3 TIMES more than the US, which has ~1.30 terawatts of capacity. Furthermore, China has 34
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This Yglesias piece in the NYT is really bad. Almost every "fact" it cites is provably false. At best it is cocktail party banter from a pundit who knows nothing of energy. At worst, it was cut/paste from oil industry talking points. So, a rebuttal:
nytimes.com
Liberals should reconcile with America’s oil and gas industry.
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China (and Elon) made the EV better than the combustion car. Some countries are realizing this before others.
ASEAN is emerging as a leader in transport electrification, with rapidly rising EV shares now outpacing legacy auto markets. 🇻🇳 Viet Nam: 38% of new car sales in 2025, double of 2024’s 🇸🇬 Singapore: 45% 🇹🇭 Thailand: 21% 🇮🇩 Indonesia: 15% https://t.co/eT3GzLdILm
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Payrolls fell -105k in October and rose +64k in November. August and September payrolls were also revised down a total of 33k. All told, the headline numbers suggest VIRTUALLY NO EMPLOYMENT GROWTH since April ("Liberation day"). Unemployment is now up to 4.6%. This is a tricky
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Of course, savings may not have been DOGE's real goal. - Musk likely got major access to proprietary info and ability to steer contracts. - Trump got to fire "disloyal" Feds. - Congress got a distraction while they cut taxes by $5 trillion. - MAGA voters got "liberal tears."
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if the gas motor is charging the battery the truck is not running all-electric for 90% of the time. Misinformation or worse is leading people the wrong way. BEVs for the win!
Ford CEO Jim Farley on why the company is cancelling the all-electric F-150 Lightning: "The $50k, $60k, $70k EVs just weren't selling; We're following customers to where the market is. We're going to build up our whole lineup of hyrbids. It's gonna be better for the company's
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if this rising trend continues a rate cut is inevitable in early 2026.
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the unemployment rate, 4.6%, continues its steady climb. it bottomed in mid-2023 at 3.4%. A recession is likely. this rate is rising despite record high US govt deficits. https://t.co/tWyxZnIZK8
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giving up and waiting for the govt. bailout.
FORD CEO JIM FARLEY: “Instead of plowing billions into the future knowing these large EVs will never make money, we are pivoting.” Tesla has won again.
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never fails to impress, monthly price changes to two decimal places! China statistics
🇨🇳CHINA NBS: NOV 2025 RESIDENTIAL PRICES IN 70 MAJOR CITIES FALL MONTH-ON-MONTH, YEAR-ON-YEAR DECLINE WIDEN. #CHINA #PROPERTY #REALESTATE
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First, but not the last. Many leaders of the industry will lose their dominance as the electric auto wave sweeps them under.
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Kelownas got issues. Rental market will get considerably weaker from here. Enormous supply in the pipeline. I posted this chart this past summer.
Rental signs are popping up everywhere in Kelowna where the vacancy rate has soared to the highest of any Canadian metropolitan area. https://t.co/KLMIHxhKU3
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Recession in 2026 will make the Fed cut rates further https://t.co/M93WV4N4hj
#whenthebubblebursts
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