James Edward Hansen
@DrJamesEHansen
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Director of Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions at Columbia University's Earth Institute Formerly Director of NASA GISS
Joined March 2016
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The United Nations and COP28 are lying. They know the 1.5C and 2C global warming targets are dead. Young people can and should take charge of their future. More later. See: “A Miracle Will Occur” Is Not Sensible Climate Policy -
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Staggering acceleration of global warming is underway, driven by a huge planetary energy imbalance, which in turn is traced mainly to our Faustian aerosol bargain. Six months more of the acceleration are still to come. See Measuring Stick -
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Climate seems headed for a new frontier, not seen in more than a million years. Look for continual monthly records, driven by the current extreme planetary energy imbalance. See Climate Dice:
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Climate is headed for a new frontier. Here’s how we know. Earth’s energy imbalance also informs us about how much we need to do to stop global warming. See — Uh-Oh:
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As with the Coronavirus, our mitigation is late, but I will make the case that sensible actions can avoid the irreversible impacts and restore more regional climate. And it is not expensive.
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Where is our planet headed? Will global temperature rise into the yellow region in 2023 and above it in 2024? Brief discussion at Pipeline paper (draft):
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El Nino fizzles. Planet Earth sizzles. There are 2 major forcings driving climate change: GHGs and aerosols. The current El Nino will provide a crude measure of the aerosol forcing, the first payment for our Faustian aerosol bargain. See El Nino fizzles -
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It’s important to clarify ongoing climate change and implications soon. There is limited time to prepare for actions needed to cool Earth and preserve a bright future. Fortunately, some young people are beginning to grasp the situation. See Groundhog Day -
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Young people will soon realize that climate intervention is essential to guide the home planet to safe landing, for the sake of humanity and nature. Will we force them to fly blind, without the knowledge needed to achieve a bright future? See Flying Blind:
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Physics tells us that global warming is accelerating. The real world is complicated, but physics rules, so we had better work on understanding it and eschew obfuscations. See Peer Review:
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Where is climate headed? We’re already at doubled CO2 greenhouse gas climate forcing. The first Faustian aerosol payment is coming due. Humanity needs to reverse course. Scientific discourse welcome at this point. Global Warming in the Pipeline:
#aerosols
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Global warming is accelerating as atmospheric pollution declines. We must continue critical observations, so that young people have the knowledge required for wise decisions. See Acceleration of Warming —
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Jump of global temperature in past year is a combination of aerosol-induced warming over a few years and a half-baked El Nino. There is no need for new climate physics to understand the warming. El Nino + next La Nina mean may approach 1.5°C. See Hopium -
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High climate sensitivity and a greater Faustian debt are a double whammy. We need to cool off the planet to maintain shorelines and a propitious climate. That requires a better understanding of the home planet and appropriate observations. See Home Planet:
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Effective climate policy requires knowledge of aerosol effects on clouds. We had better learn soon with whatever approaches work. Time is running short. Much to be done. See 2024 Projection -
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Global warming acceleration can be traced to decreased aerosols. Full payment in our Faustian bargain is coming due. Looks like our children and grandchildren will be stuck with the tab. Sorry. See July Update:
#ClimateChange
#GlobalWarming
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Where is our planet headed? Equilibrium warming vs committed warming. Brief discussion at Pipeline paper (draft):
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“Bending the Curves” will be the focus of climate research and climate mitigation for the next several decades.
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Earth’s energy imbalance is the best diagnostic of where climate is heading. We must keep up the measurements. Twittering is fun (), but we aim to advance the science. It’s hard and takes time - please read Earth’s Energy Imbalance:
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Temperature is rising. Frog is warming. Are those in power taking effective actions to turn the flame down? Too early to grade the report card. August Temperature Update:
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The Big Climate Short: IPCC inserts gigantic negative emissions in their climate scenarios. These are implausible. The 2021 cost is $2.5-5.1 trillion for David Keith’s operation. 2C global warming is baked in. Don’t despair. More soon. Big Climate Short:
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Revised draft paper “Global Warming in the Pipeline” available for comments: It includes analysis of the Cenozoic era, providing many insights. Access the draft paper:
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An impressive study by Wang et al. provides a partial explanation of how the climate system takes up such a large fraction of human-made carbon emissions. There is a long-standing issue of “missing carbon sinks,” despite efforts to fake it. See Good News -
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CO2 is a pollutant. Please consider signing our petition. We must shine a light on what politicians are doing and not doing. It’s not rocket science. But it’s expecting a lot to ask young people to fix old geezers mess without help. May Temperature Update:
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Land warming rate is 2.5X the ocean rate. 2023 seems poised to be hottest year. Our Truth diagram exposes politicians’ bulls**t. Intervention is required to address Earth’s energy imbalance. Global Temperature in 2021 Don't look up:
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Nature provides us little experiments. Let’s see if we can learn something from this one about our big experiment, and something about our Faustian bargain. Global Temperature in 2022 -
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[Full version] Webinar on Global Warming in the Pipeline —
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What’s the essential climate metric? Global temperature? CO2? Nope. It’s Earth’s energy imbalance. It incorporates all uncertainties. Tells us where we stand. Meet Karina, Sentinel for the Home Planet -
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Biden could make a real difference via existing, bipartisan law: declare CO2 to be a toxic substance. Please examine and support our petition:
Please read my op-ed in Boston Globe today also available as my Communication:
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La Nina persists – will keep global warming from blowing its top in 2022, despite record planetary energy imbalance. Situation in the Atlantic region should be ripe for tropical storms. Temperature update:
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12-month global temperature should reach minimum near +1.1C in late 2021. Maximum at next El Nino is likely to be near +1.5C due to rising CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, solar irradiance and Earth’s energy imbalance. See May Update:
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Winning the war against climate change is possible. The big challenge is to get a rising price on carbon. The atmosphere is not free dumping grounds. See Winning the War:
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A runaway greenhouse is possible, but avoidable. No politicians are proposing a solution that would work. Young people need to understand this.
#RunawayGreenhouse
#ClimateChange
#CO2
#GreenhouseGases
#BendTheCurves
#FossilFuels
#UNFCCC
#IPCC
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How well did our 1988 model do? It seemed like an academic exercise – until Jule Charney showed up – and he may come back again! See: How Well Did Our 1988 Model Do? -
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A turning point in fossil fuel emissions and global climate? It’s possible, but it’s not happening yet. A good sign: some people are beginning to understand the problem. July Temperature Update:
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Hotter hotspots; Drier dryspots; Wetter wetspots; Stronger storms. Fastest way to fix climate? Fixing U.S. democracy. Equal rights & opportunity. Really. April Temperature Update:
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2020 vs. 2016 race is over (a dead heat). Let’s see what we can learn in 2021. Will the strong La Nina drive the 12-month mean (blue line) below the red trend line or do we have clearly accelerated global warming? January 2021 Global Temperature Update:
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Why do political leaders not tell young people the truth? Are they truly ignorant themselves? I believe that young people must fix the problem. I believe it is possible. Here are my suggestions.
Bright Future:
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A happy ending to the climate story requires young people to defuse the dangerous political polarization in the United States. It’s a challenge, but let it be invigorating, not depressing. Ask help from older people, but take the lead. Don’t Look Up:
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Hot spots in the global temperature data for the past month catch our attention. Cold spots tell a story that will be more important on the long run. See June Update:
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Natural?
BREAKING: This evening alone, the United States of America has been struck by no fewer than 6 natural disasters.
A thread on these events. 🧵
First, a massive flash flood has torn through Yellowstone National Park destroying roads and bridges.
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Politicians tell the public what they want to hear. Leaders tell them what they need to know, even if it is uncomfortable. Do we have a political leader? A book Foreword, “Uncensored Science,” is available for fact checking UncensoredScience:
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Record September warmth puts 2020 in virtual dead heat with 2016 for hottest year. September 2020 Global Temperature Update: Accelerated warming of past 5 years requires explanation. It implies reduction of atmospheric aerosols []
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Climate change is growing, the bell curve shift grows. People can feel the change. Now we can begin to
#BendTheCurve
. No need to scare young people. See “It’s All Hunky-Dory, but…” () and 4-pager ().
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First step to a global solution for climate should be a rising carbon fee to create a level playing field for renewables, nuclear power, efficiency, and countless innovations. See Zakaria’s penetrating analysis GlobalSolution:
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Forests have great potential to help us, if we will let them. Good intentions are not enough. We need to follow the science. To understand the problem, follow the money. We need science more than ever. See Silent Forests:
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Gas bag season approaches. Will somebody please ask the politicians in Glasgow who will pay for the gap between their purported goal and reality. Maybe a couple trillion $ per year. It’s all a farce. No plan. Young people’s burden. See August Update:
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Temperature rising – butterflies and frogs doing o.k. – humans not so much, not so smart.
Temperature update & butterfly report:
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Climate is characterized by a delayed response, analogous to Covid-19, but time scales, rather than days-weeks, are decades-centuries. Industry understood this in early 1980s. Governments did not want to. See Global Habitability and Exxon -
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The world has cooled off a bit in 2021. Enjoy it while it lasts, which won’t be long. See. April 2021 Global Temperature Update. April 2021 Global Temperature Update:
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@LeonSimons8
@HowKeen
@MaxDW2009
@MakikoSato6
For sure, emissions are not ceasing. We show (Fig. 28) that even the GROWTH RATE of GHGs is INCREASING, and we call out loudly as bullshxt the COP claims that a 1.5C limit is still conceivable. I only answered the valid scientific question: what happens if emissions cease.
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A healthy climate and a bright future require understanding of the fundamental problems. The good news in the U.S. is that the first step may have been taken. It’s not what you thought. June Temperature Update:
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Monarchs making it to their wintering home in Mexico were much reduced this past season. Endangered species protection may help the monarch, but we must halt and reverse shifting of climate zones for the sake of all species. Sentinel for the Insect World:
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@respect65
Oops, the Professor forgot that on geologic time scales there is a second important climate forcing: solar irradiance. Greater CO2 and a weaker Sun must both be accounted for. See Section 4.5 of the draft paper ().
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@HowKeen
@MaxDW2009
@LeonSimons8
@MakikoSato6
No. Big misunderstandings about feedbacks. They are largely driven by global temperature. If emissions cease, there would be little additional warming. As cooling begins, feedbacks work in the opposite sense, increasing cooling.
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COP26 approaches. Has Boris Johnson figured out carbon-free electricity? Maybe the UK, after leading us in, can lead us out of the fossil era. September 2021 was the second warmest September, despite the La Nina. See September Update:
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Obama had a big heart, but wasn’t ready to be President. He listened to Big Green on climate, sadly. Biden should be ready. Does he understand what’s important re China? Young people will judge, and may need new actions. See Biden’s Silk Purse:
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Don’t bet on record 2020 global temperature. Depends a lot on developing Pacific temperatures, and on the unknown aerosol changes due to
#COVID19
. -
#ClimateChange
#GlobalWarming
#GlobalTemperature
#CO2
#aerosols
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Letter to UK PM Boris Johnson –
UK hosts the next UN COP. If the UK follows the science, adopting a socially-just rising carbon fee and dividend, it could heroically turn the climate tide. Is there a nation willing to defy the fossil fuel industry?
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October temperature near record despite current La Nina. 2021 will be 6th warmest year, 2022 warmer,
then hold onto your hat. Remarks at Brandenburg Gate:
COP26 discussion next week. See October Update:
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#ClimateChange
can be slowed and reversed. It will take time and many contributions. Beerling's group proposes a promising one: see Weathering Heights - including their press release:
It's a natural sink, permanent, w side benefits
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June 2020 tied (with 2019!) for the warmest June. The horse race with 2016 for warmest year tightens! George Jones is still calling the race – “and the winner loses all!” June 2020 Global Temperature Update:
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La Nina continues to drag global temperature down, but 1200-year record for earliest cherry blossoms is broken. Need to see how far the planet cools off this year. Watch this space, as Rachel says. March 2021 Global Temperature Update:
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Science informs us of required climate policies –
Government leaders do not yet understand implications of the science.
#ClimateChange
#CleanEnergy
#ClimateStrikeOnline
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@MarkCranfield_
You're right that the public is not well informed about the climate threat & the mess we're leaving for young people, but we're not committed to 10C. Gas amounts in the air will fall rapidly, long before equilibrium, if we greatly reduce emissions, but emissions are still rising!
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@HowKeen
@MaxDW2009
@LeonSimons8
@MakikoSato6
Equilibrium warming for today's atmosphere is ~8C relative to preindustrial (see paper); full warming takes a long time, ice sheets must melt. If emissions cease, there's little additional warming; cooling begins within a few decades; CH4 lifetime ~ decade, CO2 falls more slowly.
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@PFriedling
Hi Pierre,
Good to hear from you. I don't think that people are confused about what "net zero" emissions means. The problem is that some nations/organizations promising net zero are including negative emissions that are dubious, wishful thinking, or deceptive.
Jim
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The time of wishful thinking and ineffectual half-measures to address climate must end. Solution requires combining strengths of China and the West. Draft of Chapter 46 available for fact checking at China and the Global Solution:
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My nuclear chapters will discuss the potential of thorium, modular, micro and fusion reactors. If we reject modern nuclear power, we likely lock in gas, fracking, ground water pollution, and climate change as far as young people can see into the future.
@DrJamesEHansen
Thought you might appreciate my op-ed on thorium
#nuclear
reactors as a solution to
#ClimateChange
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Our planet rocks – it tilts & wanders a bit – changes climate, a lot. What can we learn? The story is simple, but this chapter hard to write. Still not happy with it. Criticisms welcome. See Paleoclimate and “Slow” Feedbacks -
#ClimateCrisis
#Paleoclimate
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February global temperature took a dive. Is accelerated warming still on – with 1.5C mean warming breached by 2030? Or not? We must wait a little longer to see. Stay tuned. February 2021 Global
Temperature Update:
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@peakaustria
Not recommended. (I know, you were just kidding -- but just in case somebody takes the idea seriously.) There are much wiser compensations.
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A new horse race this year will assess global warming acceleration. Winning will be losing. George Jones understands and has the right attitude.. Global Temperature in 2021:
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Becoming a scientist is not simple, it is a process that I try to explain by relating my experiences. I took my first steps,
#UniversityofIowa
and
#Japan
, as a result of a peculiar requirement imposed by Professor James Van Allen.
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Fearless, fresh-faced students step into a maelstrom, facing down the monsters of extreme political polarization and legalized bribery. Can they possibly win? It may require a new path. Do not
underestimate their potential. See Democracy and Planet:
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Drafts of Chapter 40 & 41 are available for fact checking at Sophie’s Planet
#30
–
Where did we ever get the idea that 450 ppm CO 2 was o.k.? Does anybody care about the young and the unborn?
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Draft of Chapter 43 is available for fact checking at Sophie’s Planet
#32
–
Phasing off fossil fuel emissions requires a strategy. The world – we learned – has no strategy.
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Draft of Chapter 46 is available for fact checking at Sophie’s Planet
#35
–
Have we made clear to the Judiciary the threat that climate change poses to young people and the unborn? Whose fault is it?
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July 2020 2nd warmest July (to 2019!) Horse race of 2020 with 2016 tightens, 2016 leads by barely a nose. More important: global warming is accelerating. 12-month mean peaked just below prior maximum w/o help of real El Nino -
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Aerosol story is weird. Like dark matter – out of sight, out of mind.
@aerosols
forcing 2nd only to
@carbondioxide
. What did Charney think? Chapter 31 Sophie’s Planet -
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2020 global temperature falls flat in La Nina mud! Nose on finish line! Virtual dead heat! 2020 nose longer at 4 decimals. George Jones happily makes his final call – “and the winner loses all!” Global Temperature in 2020:
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More smart, young, educated idealistic leaders – our basis for optimism: . Read Why Are You Optimistic? – and join the Good Energy Collective conversation at 5 PM East Coast time today!
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Race is on – 2020 the hottest year or 2016? What can we learn? The race can entertain us this year:
George Jones can call the race ()
#GlobalWarming
#BendTheCurves
#COVID19
#GreenhouseEffect
#ClimateForecasts
#Aerosols
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For those of you using Gmail, please check your Spam folder for this month's temperature update. We believe this has to do with Gmail filtration updates, and we are investigating. We apologize for any inconvenience.
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Eunbi is sending this for me -- Not checking Twitter at the moment until I finish an overdue editorial essay.
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Warning! Chapters 2 & 3 are family history (science and climate policy coming soon). Great grandfather,
a carpenter from rural Denmark, pioneered a large farm, building a good house for himself, his wife and
11 children. What about the next two generations?
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2020 bursts ahead, will defeat 2016 for warmest year. Accelerated warming exposes aerosol Faustian bargain. Hard work to restore climate looms. George Jones gets it right – “and the winner loses all!” -
Global Warming Acceleration:
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Activism is needed, but it’s tough and needs to be well-focused. Joe Gantz’ film, The Race to Save the World, to be released Earth Day, raises questions. They’re still digging up Coal River Mountain. Activists:
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Filed a declaration against Montana coal mine expansion. Need to educate judiciary, our crucial defense against dysfunctional legislative & executive branches. Rising carbon fee will dispense with coal and fracking for gas. -
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People need to understand their personal benefits from carbon pricing.
@CitizensLobbyCa
's parliamentary e-petition
#e2542
asks the Canadian government to make smart, easy changes to accomplish that:
Canada could lead the world.
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@meedabyte
@peakaustria
I'm writing an invited editorial now on that topic (aerosol role in climate change and policy implications) -- I hope that I can make it available on my website soon.
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By mid-1980s scientists knew that human-made climate was a serious threat. Pomerance and Oppenheimer were brilliant in getting the attention of Congress. But wait, behind the scenes, stuff began to happen. See Sophie’s Planet
#18
1986 Testimony -
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Battlestar Galactica evoked shock and awe – but more awesome was the genius of Francis Bretherton, who could comprehend the entire global system – and communicate the story.
@ClimteChange
Chapter 32 Sophie’s Planet –
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Aerosol changes are probably an important climate forcing now, but who knows? We just guess and debate. In the future, as we work to restore Earth’s energy balance, aerosols will be more important.
#ClimateChange
Chapter 33 Sophie’s Planet -
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Every rock has a story! We can extract amazing, important information. This is not just for kids, it’s a terrific introduction to science. Still hard, interesting science to do. A challenge, but don’t panic. See Every Rock Has a Story & The Rock Whisperer –
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Actually, it is Physics vs. Mathematics. The most uncertain physics is the Nino prediction -- a lot we need to learn there.
@DrJamesEHansen
@ClimateOfGavin
Thanks for weighing in Jim. I think we certainly will, for all the reasons you & Gavin allude to. Much as you showed with your prescient Pinatubo prediction back in '91, these natural "experiments" can teach us quite a bit (and can help validate conceptual & physical models).
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@Daniel_W_See
@TedNordhaus
@MichaelEMann
@TheBTI
@sourcewatch
The story's not so simple, especially for people with a strong ideology. That's why I'm a political independent and why I'm writing a book. I'm on chapter 47 of 50. The last 4 are the most important.
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