This is the retail mania that is driving the bubble hype in companies like $ionq and $rgti. Live trading social concert events i.e. GAMBLING! $IONQ is over 30% owned by retail Korean investors. That is insane. Throughout history retail has been shown to have paper hands, when

Friends, This is why we don’t do crypto levered 20:1 - a 5% flash crash wipes you out. And they happen ALL THE TIME, especially during thinly traded overnight sessions. #BTC In memecoins, the moves are even bigger and much less leverage will decimate you. See last night…

Hard to not feel bad reading stuff like this. But as a country, we've also convinced ppl they're better off gambling than putting in hard work, which is "not great", to put it mildly.

@ContrarianCurse Closed a fund last year. During the office clear out I spent a week flicking through old sell-side research reports and internal pitches from the previous seven years, all neatly filed away. It is incredible how much time and effort went into ideas that, with hindsight, were

Global $450M small cap L/S, generalist firm hiring an analyst, will report to PM & Senior Analyst. Ideal candidate has <4yrs work experience, VIC member or substack author, demonstrated passion for public markets, curious, eager to learn. Please send to hfreflection@gmail.com

10 year old me would be having a field day making biz sim games - any other investors get the investing bug in part playing old maxis / education / biz sim games?

I gave ChatGPT Codex an article & screenshot from a famous, lost Maxis simulation, SimRefinery, and asked it to create it for me. It built a playable prototype for me while I did other stuff, never touching any code once, instead just occasionally poking Codex for small changes.

One of the better ones I’ve read in awhile. Great on the ground detective work - really impressive and worth reading the whole thing or at least scrolling through the images.

Many investors with the best track records over 1-3 year periods end up with very bad capital weighted returns. This period is long enough to convince the GP and LPs that outlier performance is skill, when often it was a healthy dose of luck and poor risk management.

This is a fun thought experiment - the context was that if you are a LT investor you should want your 3 largest positions to fall 50% for no reason. I disagree with multiple aspects of @KevinLMak here and would love to debate - a 🧵 1) Most stocks don’t fall 50% on no news - a

I don’t understand why more good funds don’t capacity constrain sub $1b. It’s much easier to raise and maintain a smaller fund. But instead GPs lie to themselves and/or LPs, unable to resist high incremental margins, and keep going until mediocrity or the wheels fall off.

This is a must follow - excellent researcher, trained by the best, excited to see what they put out and can accomplish!

Not being different for different’s sake, but just being genuinely you. At the same time, in fund structure / terms / etc being conventional is actually important as trying to be too creative introduces complexity that can act as an impediment.

In an industry with a lot of sameness, being different in your goals and personality is more fun, more genuine, and more likely to lead to the kind of success you actually want.

Those of us who never understood bitcoin can revel in the minor victory that NFTs played out as expected.

I don’t post philosophy stuff as much as I used to, but I like a lot of the stuff this account puts out / find it provocative, even if I don’t agree 100% with all of it.

In my case, we were very clear we were going to get to a certain size and close. We have. We will return capital to stay small, protect returns, and get to do what I love for as long as I can. It’s not rocket science. But most people want to dream the dream of a multi-billion

So yes, it is hard and harder than it used to be. But a lot of that is people not being gifted huge AUM with no repeatable alpha. It takes talent, patience, passion, and some luck.

So many others too, sub 500m that have done well and have good livings. Miri Capital, @1MainCapital, Cable Car, Starfort, etc. There are so many and new ones every year. But you know what, they all justify their fees! If you can’t, you shouldn’t have a business.

But it is not hopeless, you just have to expect to grind. @AggieCapitalist, @Biohazard3737, @hkuppy, @AltaFoxCapital all have wonderful businesses. @HindenburgRes was an unemployed guy on a couch. Talent wins.