Compound248 💰
@compound248
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"That thing that rich people do where they turn money into more money. Can you teach me how to do that, Jack?” - Tina Fey, 30 Rock Jack, “With my eyes closed.”
Lhasa, Tibet
Joined June 2020
I’ve been blessed to spend time with many of the world’s great investors. 20 years ago, I made a point to hunt down the best. Many are now popular on Fintwit - Nick Sleep, Li Lu, Chuck Akre. Others should be - Chris Hohn, Larry Robbins, and more. For🎄: 12 lessons I learned🧵👇
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RT @HoldenWalker99: Concise, well supported, and persuasive thread. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ.
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Obviously none of this is investment advice. And I’m wrong frequently. If you enjoy thinking about this kind of thing, reply, like, retweet, and follow. -End-.
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6. Danger.Today’s common price appears to discount the risk of SPS conversion. SPS conversion is THE path to maximize ownership and, therefore, taxpayer value. It’s also the most legally straightforward approach. Of course, maybe it won’t happen - caveat emptor. But SPS.
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6. 5%.Both Pulte and Bessent have said selling 5% in the “IPO” could be raise $30B of cash, which implies a $600B valuation. I’m skeptical of that valuation, but, the bigger the valuation, the harder it is to walk from the SPS - it is too important of an asset and needs to be.
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5. Conversion .Listing a holdco may sound like it risks putting off clarity for current common and JPS owners, perpetuating today’s limbo. BUT, for new-money to “maximize”value to the UST, $GAMC has to share the SPS plan AND that plan has to be to convert SPS, leaving UST with.
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4. $GAMC.For this to be the "biggest IPO ever," UST’s stakes have to be combined into one IPO’able position. It's not practical or desirable to merge Fannie and Freddie, so the answer may be that the US lists a holdco that owns its SPS and its warrants, aligning new-money
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3. Maximize.Using “$1 trillion” as a long-term target, failing to convert SPS would leave $150 billion on the table: Donald Trump doesn’t leave $150 billion lying around. As a long-term owner working to “maximize the value for the US taxpayer,” per Bessent, the USG won't worry.
Step One of Trump’s plan to deal with the GSEs - Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac:. “MAXIMIZE the value for the US taxpayer with Fannie & Freddie.”. Those are not the words of a man about to voluntarily write-off the UST’s massive sr preferred claim. Quite the opposite. $FNMA $FRCC 🤮
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2. Trillions. Pulte goes on to say the USG's remaining stake will be worth "a trillion or potentially trillions someday.". Setting aside the liklihood of that value, his statement implies the USG will remain a major LONG-TERM owner of $FNMA and $FMCC, perhaps in a new sovereign.
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1. Biggest IPO ever. @pulte says UST's GSE holdings are worth "$500 to 700 billion ." .$FNMA $FMCC. IMO, that implies a full SPS conversion PLUS aggressive valuation assumptions. I'd personally say it's worth half that, but we'll find out soon enough. 🧵👇 1/x
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So much for major CPG companies being a quiet little nook…
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Attack mode:
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PTSD inducing:.
3. Most of us hear “anticompetitive” and think “monopoly.”. But a 5th place airline clearly isn’t a monopoly. So…what’s going on?. What if it dominates just one route? Like Boston to Puerto Rico?. Bingo!. And it only must cause harm to ANY SINGLE consumer (see blue highlights).
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When Judge Young prevented the #6 airline (JetBlue) from acquiring the #9 airline (Spirit) to form the #5 airline on ANTITRUST grounds, he did so by self-righteously proclaiming: . "To those dedicated customers of Spirit, this one's for you.". In the subsequent two years, Spirit
*SPIRIT AIRLINES FILES FOR CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCY. *SECOND BANKRUPTCY IN LESS THAN A YEAR AFTER PRIOR REORG FAILED TO ACHIEVE ON STABLE FOOTING. Chapter 22 in less than 6 months after exit. Is this a record? The only winners are the restructuring lawyers/advisors. Crazy. $SAVE
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Pulte, you might want to sit this one out.
Many mortgage agreements state that mortgages are in DEFAULT if material representations like OCCUPANCY turn out to be FALSE. This clause is important, as false representations on mortgages jeopardize the safety and soundness of the entire market. We cannot have another 2008.
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If lying on a loan application makes you ineligible for government employment, JD Vance may be getting a promotion.
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This recent @Bloomberg quote is absolute🔥:. "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."
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I didn’t realize Sardar Biglari was involved in $CBRL. His involvement provides context to @SteaknShake’s brutal tweets about CBRL (Biglari controls Steak ‘n Shake). I am torn - Biglari is very hard to side with, even though he is right about Cracker Barrel. Deeply unlikable.
🚨EXCLUSIVE. She knew. @CrackerBarrel CEO Julie Felss Masino and her board ignored warnings last year from investor Sardar Biglari that her "strategic transformation plan" and rebrand was "obvious folly." . 🧵has the receipts from our new @FoxNews @FoxBusiness investigation.
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