SuspendedCap
@ContrarianCurse
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head of the semicap cult | wannabe think boi / mostly US large caps
Joined August 2023
For $BE, it is interesting that in 2008 Google was one of the first cos to deploy their energy servers in Mountain View. They are severely energy constrained and John Doerr who still sits on Alphabets Board was an early investor in Bloom. If I had to guess where the next larger
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If the numbers laid out by SA today for TPU for Anthropic are true OAI is in major trouble and someone will have to cough up economics to bring them in-line competitively on costs
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Me to the analysts at my shop when they are telling me about take or pays in semis
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An official in the semiconductor industry said, “SK Hynix faces a situation where it must also expand production capacity for next-generation DRAM, such as the 10nm-class 6th generation (1c) DRAM, next year,” adding, “They will utilize every possible measure to operate and
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I do feel like this is the first year where the passive bid is so relentless, multi strat risk budgets are razor thin, and the retail crowd adds so much gas That you are actually getting crazy dispersion / overshoots. Incredibly fertile hunting grounds
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In that was the high in memory then the market sniffed out the peak a record number of Qs out. Maybe like 5-6
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If something doesn't work, and I ask why we should stick around and the answer is "its pretty cheap now" I'm selling it
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I've said it before, I'll say it again - Canada is just 2 years behind the UK. They will tax you until your eyes bleed to fund the bottom half of the country that doesn't pay taxes and entitlements / HC for boomers
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Kind of a weird co to have Bloomberg focus in on generally? Wonder what catalyzed this. It is still quite a good business, but its also off almost 30%
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I feel like AI is giving me edge just by increasing my surface area. You look and look and look, and then there is a pattern recognition that kicks in that fits your mental models and you can act. This was always the case but I can just see more. Without judgement it’s not
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I'll be real with ya - $MSTR is getting super interesting
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$ABNB having a hotel vs airbnb debate is frankly stupid. Of course you aren't going to stay at a 3bdr house in scottsdale with a putting green for your work conference idiot They are fundamentally totally different products
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PA - well through ytd highs chosen megas - goog amzn aapl semis - amat (still huge) snps housing - rkt bldr software - sap axon (shut up I'm putting it here) solar - te tan jks energy - be leu eqt are
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The semi industry is full of mission critical companies up and down the value chain that *could* charge more disruptively, but instead has worked towards an equilibrium that optimizes P*Q LT & broader ecosystem health Probably the single biggest abuser of this over the past 2
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Until basically last year, the answer to this question was real just "That isn't how they do things in Taiwan" https://t.co/p9ecLS805I
@zephyr_z9 1. Why isn’t TSMC building out fabs at a breakneck pace? 2. Why aren’t they charging more per wafer to boost their margins in light of the massive demand?
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For those in semi cap.. you aren't playing for the increases in logic into DCs/HPC (though it will continue) You are playing for memory capex and then most importantly content increases on consumer electronics (which take up the vast majority of wafers)
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THE KIDS WANNA GAMBLE https://t.co/FTT4htOUjh
This article on $HOOD has a strong pre-GFC feel to it. Echoes of when all kinds of insane things were going on in housing/banking and no one was thinking about what the fallout might look like for both retail and institutions when the music stops. https://t.co/UVEChRqg3A
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