There are no shortcuts in risk management in fundamental equity. You have to get to know people. You are not just underwriting their ideas as tickers, but their habits, emotions, and judgment. Quant models can capture exposure and volatility, but not temperament, discipline, or

Some analysts take offence when a PM passes on their pitch. In the old days, sell-side analysts would talk for ten minutes straight, then sit in silence waiting for an order. Same energy. The price is on the screen. This is not VC where it is all narrative. The job is to

@theodoore__ Everyone speaks from experience. I was talking about a friend who left a good analyst seat to start his own fund. Not huge AUM, but he wanted to build something of his own. I told him from experience it would be much harder than he ever imagined. He didn’t believe me. Now he’s

@jktadave Interesting approach. My point is that some stock picks or poker hands are fine in isolation at a point in time but do not lend themselves to capital allocation or more chips. They lack optionality or convexity. You only win in a narrow way. With pocket jacks or lower you are

A lot of CIOs treat LP meetings as a nuisance. But if you actually listen, you can learn a lot from the questions LPs ask. They rarely give direct feedback, but their line of questioning tells you exactly what they are thinking. They speak to a lot of funds too so they are

Top tier funds choose between good options: who to back, which strategy to scale, which PM to seed. Funds further down the totem pole face adverse selection. They choose between whoever is available and whatever capital will take them. It just means they have to get the big

There’s nothing that forces more intellectual honesty than markets. Every opinion has a price. You can’t hide behind theory or narrative. You either admit you were wrong, or the market makes you pay for it. Ego has destroyed an incredible amount of capital.

@coachlukefalk Love this! The best PMs treat every "sack" as their responsibility. They do not blame the market, their analyst, or the sell side. They look at what they controlled: entry, exit, sizing, timing, and discipline. Everything else is noise. Senior management and savvy allocators

Every flight has turbulence. It feels uncomfortable, but it rarely means the plane is in danger. Objective risk is the probability of the plane going down. Subjective risk is how it feels to people when it starts shaking. Markets are the same. Periods of volatility reveal the

So many equity ideas are the equivalent of pocket pairs in poker. They look great at first glance, neat, familiar, easy to like. You feel ok holding them. But once the flop/earnings come, you realize you are in no man’s land. Not strong enough to play big, not weak enough to

Some trades make perfect sense in the moment. People are under pressure to act, and the trade fits the macro backdrop, sentiment, and positioning when it is put on. It happens and nobody knows how things could play out. Months later, the world has changed but the position is

Equity analysis is like Wheel of Fortune. Everyone starts with the five vowels: the 10Ks, the model, management meetings, sell side calls, and industry conferences. Those are table stakes and rarely solve the puzzle. Factors are like the common consonants, the R, S, T, L, and N.

A good friend recently announced he is getting divorced after seven years of marriage. Old friends were not surprised. We had seen the signs for years and sadly they probably should never have got married in the first place. His work colleagues and school Dad friends were

Junior analysts imagine the top as the promised land. In reality, it’s quieter, lonelier, and full of doubt. They see the rewards of being a PM. Few see the weight of decision-making and what it feels like when every decision is yours and there’s nowhere to hide. It’s the same

Dysfunctional teams do dysfunctional things. It sounds obvious, but you see it everywhere. Smart people in bad systems make bad decisions because the incentives, trust, or communication are off.

Was debating with a friend about a young Premier League player who is brilliant at finding space but struggles to finish chances. Some say composure and finishing can be coached. My friend argued that while you can train technique and repetition, you cannot recreate adrenaline,

@jktadave @sidecarcap Yeah fair point. There’s probably just far greater dispersion among amateurs than pros. A few amateurs run incredibly hot or bring real insight, but most are way below baseline. Pros cluster around consistency with fewer blow-ups and fewer outliers. In markets, it’s similar.

@ratrace232 @nickcammarata Very good question. These guys all knew and liked each other. Accountability and feedback only work when they come from a place of trust and understanding. People need to believe the other person is credible or it doesn’t land. Everyone sat in on every session so you were

Some analysts are like human LLMs. They can generate endless streams of intelligent-sounding language, perfectly structured and seemingly flawless arguments. But often, it’s more performance than substance. You really notice it when reading old research with hindsight. The logic

Analysts love to say they got the earnings right but the multiple betrayed them. That’s all part of the game. You have to know what moves both the numbers and the narrative.