Barra Mamia
@econcompassing
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Indonesian dilettante. Macro, monetary, int'l econs, dev't econs, history, and more. My opinions are just that, not my employer's nor investment advice
Jakarta
Joined November 2019
Big new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. https://t.co/hDQhDL5rR1
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Chinese financial institutions have lent more than $200 billion to the US over the past 25 years, backing 2,500 projects in almost every state, including gas pipelines and airport terminals. More than half the lending, $103 billion, was made since 2018. https://t.co/ecaUFVt2tP
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Really thrilled to be featured in today's Odd Lots newsletter--thanks @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway! The implication: The U.S.'s sole growth sector is stuck between a prisoner's dilemma in pricing and a collateral crunch.
Today's new @PubEnterprise report is a comprehensive analysis of the capital structure of the entire AI sector: data center real estate, GPU markets, private credit, you name it. It's also a financial risk management framework for policymakers: What happens in a bust?
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From landlords to finance to big pharma and big tech: “Mapping modern economic rents: the good, the bad, and the grey areas”
academic.oup.com
Abstract. There is increasing consensus that modern capitalist economies suffer from excessive rent extraction in both financial and real economy sectors.
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@ethanflynncpa Best way to think about Sept 2019 is the Fed had no tools in place to offset a temporary short term financing squeeze. They set up SRF after the fact because of it Then SVB happened and they realized that SRF had major major flaws and they invented BTFP as an immediate response
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The table below is what we sent to clients on Monday, right after the Kuala Lumpur trade talks. The final deal confirmed by Chinese and US leaders today aligns almost exactly with what we assessed negotiators had already settled. In effect, both sides just took a time machine
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Ibn Khaldun was an Austrian economist.
Ibn Khaldun on Taxes: "It should be known that at the beginning of a dynasty, taxation yields a large revenue from small assessments. At the end of the dynasty, taxation yields a small revenue from large assessments."
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More evidence that a lot of what we think of as "traditional" and imagine as having always existed is really a 20th century phenomenon. This isn't just true for the "traditional" model of family, but also for "traditional" cuisine and probably a lot of other things.
Average age of childbirth (i.e. of women when they gave birth to any child; not just the first). The dotted line involves estimates from five year-classes. https://t.co/jwobjEC9D5
@salonium maybe of interest.
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Revolutionaries cannot normally win, unless by an invitation. That is, they must be invited by those already in power, and accept their invitation No invitation -> no revolution, obviously
@kamilkazani Applying this broadly, you’d almost never experience revolutionary results because at the moment of origin, it would almost always be the case that prospective revolutionaries face inordinate odds against their success.
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The most salient changes from the 15th FYP announcement vs the 14th FYP are the emphasis on the phrase “全国统一大市场” (national unified market; literally “a unified large national market”) to remove local barriers / protectionism and a focus on regional differentiation:
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It's underrated just how much of the economy is basically wealth transfer from young people to Boomers. Boomers own the majority of homes in cities, 21% of them are millionaires, and they *still* get subsidized healthcare (Medicare) and social security...
Early retirees like Bill & Shelly will see their health insurance premiums increase nearly 300%—from $442 to $1,700 per month if Congressional Republicans refuse to extend the enhanced tax credits. That's an extra $15K a year families can't afford. https://t.co/Uvo6sYi7YR
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Sharing my piece in @ForeignAffairs where I argue that, unlike the common perception, China’s overcapacity problem is NOT primarily about government subsidies (many of which have been rolled back) or lack of domestic demand (true in general, but not the leading cause in green
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Gold has a negative interest rate in the form of vault fees. If we could get precise data on the frequency with which self-custodied Bitcoin is lost or stolen, we could calculate Bitcoin's negative interest rate as well.
@TheStalwart The physical storage costs are undisclosed and are what really get you Ironically and unironically also true for Bitcoin
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Yep. Trump is the fiscal policy version of Covid. like nothing before as invented in some strange lab in Queens NY. soon we have lock down entire but this time from "Mr Market"
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One of the problems with Austrian economics is that they read Schumpeter (1911) but not Schumpeter (1942). This was a very dramatic change of perspective. In 1911, creative destruction happens through the entry of new firms that force the exit of incumbent firms—what you
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The industrial policy we have isn't the industrial policy we need 🤣 @farisrachman_1
✅️lenient labor regulation w low pay ✅️lax regulations and permit ✅️little to no tax ✅️subsidised by government at times Dont tell me its not an industrial policy 👀
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Mokyr never published in a «top 5» journal until very late in his career, when he finally did together with David de la Croix & @mdoepke. Later he did so again, w/ Morgan Kelly and Cormac Ó Gráda. Whatever you think of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, consider that.
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Trump has carved out so many exceptions for his tariffs that they’re not nearly as bad as they would otherwise be. Thank God he’s corrupt. It’s what’s keeping globalism alive.
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