Dave Innes
@dminnes
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Economist. Associate Director, RSM Economic Consulting. Tweets personal, obviously.
Leeds, England
Joined October 2011
Join us and @RSMUK on 11 July @10am for the launch of new guidance on conducting economic evaluations in higher ed 📈 Enhance evaluation practices for your widening participation interventions with our evaluation framework 🤝 Sign up: https://t.co/0TlzDYdFBW
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In the "nerding out" part: the end of the elephant. Between 2008 and 2018, incomes of the globally poor have increased in percentage terms much more than the incomes of the globally rich. The global Gini has gone down.
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Some initial thoughts on this Budget (and yes, it was a budget).
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Credit is due to Rishi Sunak for listening, recognising he hadn't provided enough support for those hardest hit by the rising cost of living, and coming back with a big, well-targeted package. See @R_McDonald_'s thread on what that will mean for low income families:
What a relief - Chancellor has funnelled most of the support to low-income families and used benefits to do so - will be hugely positive news for so many families struggling to get by this year.
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NEW: JRF responds to the Chancellor's measures on the cost of living 👇 💬 CEO @PaulKissack: "It is right to target help at those on low incomes, who are least able to bear the shock of soaring energy bills."
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What a relief - Chancellor has funnelled most of the support to low-income families and used benefits to do so - will be hugely positive news for so many families struggling to get by this year.
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Summary: Chancellor almost doubles the level of energy support to over £30bn (£15bn extra today), and fills the huge gap in previous announcements with large targeted support for those hardest hit. Things to quibble with, but this is big and very welcome indeed
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What might the Chancellor announce today to help with the cost of living, and what should he announce? TLDR: social security is designed to get money quickly to people who need it. Use it to provide some pain relief now & plan major surgery to make it more adequate long term 1/
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Lots of speculation about what more the will do to help with cost of living. Various proposals flying around, some of which I found hard to understand the rationale behind. So I have pulled together my take on what govt can/can't/should/shouldn't do
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Yesterday’s ofgem announcement means that if overall inflation reaches 10% later this year the poorest will be facing 14% inflation because they spend such a large fraction of their budget on energy. Their benefits are up 3%.
NEW: Inflation for the poorest households could hit 14% this October, compared to 8% for the richest. Yesterday's Ofgem announcement of a £800 increase to the tariff cap indicates poorer households will be hit hardest by energy price increases: https://t.co/5T9YuQqrZG
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This is a great opportunity @jrf_uk for someone with a curious mind, a flair for analysis and a passion for social justice. Come and help make sense of what’s going on in society and offer insight on what to do about it.
JRF is recruiting for an Analysis Manager to help shape and lead JRF’s programme of analytical work. The role offers the opportunity to undertake original and creative analysis to shed new light on poverty-related issues. Read more and apply, here 👇 https://t.co/VNKSsjJZ8k
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📈Inflation hit 9% in April- highest in 40 yrs (h/t @StatsPeter) 🍽 Governor of BoE says food inflation will get “apocalyptic” 🔥Latest forecast has energy going up another £600 in oct. And still the govt says it “stands ready” but doesn’t act. Their heads are in the sand 1/5
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JRF's @R_McDonald_ on today's inflation figures 👇 "Inflation has hit a 40-year high. Yet last month, with prices already climbing, the Chancellor chose not to uprate benefits in line with inflation, leaving the basic rate of benefits at its lowest for 35 years."
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Inflation overall is 9%. But our analysis suggests that the poorest are facing an inflation rate or around 11%. That’s because they spend a large fraction of their budget on energy and food. Their benefits of course rose by just 3.1%.
NEW: Average inflation reached 9% in the year to April, but the poorest households faced inflation rates of 10.9%. This is 3 percentage points higher than inflation rates for the richest decile. [THREAD: 1/4]
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Key point from @dminnes. Flag this for possible future discussions in Sept where following usual benefit uprating might be positioned by some as an expensive cost. Not true! It corrects a timing quirk which led inadvertently to biggest cut in value of benefits for 50 years!
I've seen some questions on how the Chancellor can meet the cost of uprating benefits in line with inflation. But seeing this as a ‘cost’ is the wrong way to think about it. (1/4)
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Join us: https://t.co/WUCQm3aLbX. This is a key role in where we want you to shape and lead JRF’s programme of analytical work. You'll undertake original creative analysis to shed new light on poverty-related issues, working across JRF. Sound interesting? Please apply!
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THIS 👇
Really the Treasury has made an unexpected saving on benefits this year because of this quirk, but this comes at the cost of the biggest cut to the basic rate of social security for 50 years. (3/4)
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It is clearly not right for the Treasury to pocket this unexpected saving from the social security bill during a cost of living crisis. (4/4)
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