David Helms
@davidhelms570
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Bicyclist, Citizen Ped and Bike Advocate. Retired NOAA and USAF/AFWA (and AWS) meteorologist
Virginia, US
Joined September 2009
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Pinned Tweet
12-13 MAY 2024:
#NAFOWeather
Mostly Cloudy(all Ukraine) Wind from north at 3-8 m/s Low Temp 6C
TUE-WED(14-15 MAY) Mostly Cloudy(west/north/east) Rainshowers(south) Low Temp 3C
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Russia can't pay its debts now to Kazakhstan to keep its lease at the Baikonur Cosmodrome. No way Russia can outlast Ukraine and the west.
#RussiaIsCollapsing
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Can I get a "hell yah" from ya'll???
@anneapplebaum
"I want a Union 🇪🇺 strong enough not only to stand up to Putin, but send him to hell!"
New Polish Foreign Minister 💪
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1/ Its been 2 weeks since the Russians destroyed the
#KakhovkaHPP
dam. What will the Dnipro River look like when it returns to its pre-reservoir (before 1955) position? Where are the possible crossing locations? How might UAF exploit these crossing opportunities? A
#NAFOWeather
🧵
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I love Ecuador!!!
#SlavaUkraini
GODDAMN!
Ecuador just absolutely obliterated Russia at the UNSC. It was so bad that Lavrov walked out 🔥🤌
Thank you Ecuador, for your principled stance & your defense of international law by calling out Russia for what it is. You are showing true leadership 👏🏼
#SlavaUkraini
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1/ It has been 3 months since the Russians blew-up the Kakhovka HPP dam on 6 June 2023. What is happening to the Dnipro River hydrology and ecology? What are are the options for rebuilding the HPP and possibility for a Dnipro left-bank beachhead? A
#NAFOWeather
🧵
Outline:
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If tourists are not moving then the military supplies aren't moving. Brilliant timing to allow thousands of tourists into Crimea then hit the bridge mid-season AND thinning out supply storage w/ HIMARS & Storm Shadow strikes 6 weeks into the start of the counter-offensive.
According to Google Maps, the traffic jam of those trying to leave crimea has reached 10 kilometers.
Russian Hospitality Union reports that at least 50,000 tourists are currently in Crimea and most of them arrived on their personal vehicles.
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@thorstenbenner
US "dominance" in defense industries isn't a competition, US is merely filling a vacuum left by Germany abandoning their partners and Ukraine. This is a self-inflicted wound by Germany.
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Cloudy conditions over south Ukraine last night, but HIMARS strike caused significant fire that caused the clouds to be illuminated
Chaplynka Airfield
November 17, 2022
JPSS VIIRS Day-Night Band
@GeoConfirmed
46.3474 33.5415
@JayinKyiv
@DefMon3
@COUPSURE
@ArtisanalAPT
@tom_bike
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On November 11, 2022, the Russians exploded charges on the 3 dam gates on the north side (right bank) of the Kakhovka HPP Dam along with the road and railroad deck over the dam.
#NAFOWeather
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@United24media
Russia is exploiting nationalist emotions to the split Polish and Ukrainian alliance, don't let them. Fight Russian propaganda, not allies.
- Russia is to blame and profiting from grain market chaos and to blame for millions of displaced Ukrainians
* RUSSIA IS THE COMMON ENEMY *
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@Gerashchenko_en
So, Ukraine is or is not governed by a Jew or a Nazi??? Russian propaganda is difficult to keep up with.
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Sediment has accumulated behind
#KakhovkaHPP
dam since 1955. Russian destruction of the dam released 18 cubic kilometers of stored water flushing 68 years of sediment into the northwest Black Sea, silting Dnipro harbors and damaging fragile marine ecosystems.
Houses from the Kherson region have drifted all the way to Odesa and washed ashore. Also furniture, household appliances, and cars float in the waters. A (ecological) disaster.
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@wartranslated
The Soviet era saying "The State pretends to pay us, and we pretend to work" will become "The State pretends to pay us and we pretend to fight".
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Sent 1 AWS-IW-VVVH
09 NOV 2022
Ships appear to be ready to support Kherson evacuation
Positions:
46.60561 32.61472
46.57327 32.57524
46.53741 32.52941
46.5370 32.53483
46.67481 32.73385
46.6907 32.8362
46.75015 33.05844
@DefMon3
@NLwartracker
@COUPSURE
@tom_bike
@GeoConfirmed
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@Gerashchenko_en
UN offered to re-connect Russia banks associated with agriculture before Russia terminated
#BSGI
, the west isn't blocking other items. UN must stop allowing Putin veto power over feeding 400 million starving people.
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1/ Are fires becoming more frequent near the Line of Conflict (LoC)? Is shelling the ignition source of these fires? What can we expect in the future? A
#NAFOWeather
🧵
In Konstantinov, Donetsk region, 🇺🇦rescuers came under attack by russian 🇷🇺artillery while extinguishing a fire. The video vividly demonstrates the conditions under which emergency workers are currently working in the region. Fortunately, none of the rescuers were injured.
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@yasminalombaert
Sure, follow the "path" of the hermit kingdom where most of the population is starving and literally living in darkness. Image from NASA/NOAA VIIRS Day-Night band.
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P'yatyy Zaton Boat Basin
Dnipro east bank
Kherson City
46.60488 32.61274
@GeoConfirmed
Growing flotilla of ships (being cached to support evacuation?) observed in Sentinel2 (visible) and Sentinel1 (SAR) on October 16, October 31, and November 5.
@COUPSURE
@ArtisanalAPT
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@bayraktar_1love
Ladas -> Fish -> Fire Wood -> Towels -> now frozen water. The value of one mobik life seems to be going to zero real fast.
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@bayraktar_1love
Even if UAF passes RF forces back to Oleshky, the Konka River is another significant barrier in the way to the actual left bank... and for sure RF has mined the Konka River Bridge.
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The destruction of
#KakhovkaHPP
by retreating Russians is lowering the
#KakovkaReservoir
rapidly at 1.2 meters per day (5 cm per hour). Already, 2 meter drop is having extreme ecosystem damage, this mass fish kill an indicator. It will get much worse.
#RussiaIsATerroristState
Marynske, Dnipropetrovsk region. A mass mortality of fish has begun.
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@wartranslated
Russians cannot admit that UAF is their match on the battlefield so they use their air defense troops as scapegoats. Russian inability to admit defeat from Ukrainian attacks ensures they won't learn from their mistakes.
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1/ Back on March 2, 2023,
@DefenceHQ
declared it to be
#MudSeason
, Ukrainian as ‘bezdorizhzhia’, limiting cross country movement (CCM)/trafficability. This
#NAFOWeather
🧵 looks at when soil will dry sufficiently to support offensive operations.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 2 March 2023
Find out more about Defence Intelligence:
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Rainfall Forecast, 5-18 May 2023:
Little of No Rainfall predicted next 14 days near and along the entire Line of Conflict. Significant soil drying and strengthening is likely.
#NAFOWeather
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3/ The receding Dnipro RIver has revealed once submerged RF defenses including mines placed along the over 200 km of
#KakhovkaReservoir
left bank coastline.
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@ChrisO_wiki
Prigozhin "we are recruiting people to kill: murderers, brigands, we need everyone. He said we were like *an organised [crime] group*, you could call it that."
Makes sense, I mean they are working for Putin's kleptocratic regime.
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1/ Russians trying to stop ZSU
#USV
attacks on the Kerch Bridge have built a barrier about 1.2 km long on the Black Sea of the bridge at 45.247362 36.583960.
Left: Sentinel 1 SAR, 27 August 2023
Right: Google map (note traffic backup) from 29 August 2023
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4/ During WW2, the German Nazi and Red Army forces built several temporary bridges across the Dnipro River between Kakhovka and Zaporizhzhia to establish and defend bridgeheads.
Battle for the Ore Deposits: The Red Army vs. Nazi Germany
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1/ There has been daily reports of clashes near the Antonovsky Rail Bridge crossing of the Dnipro river between Prydniprovs'ke and Poima since 18 October 2023. A
#NAFOWeather
🧵on the Dnipro wetland ground conditions supporting offensive operations.
Russian military reporter Filatov provides two comments on the situation at Krynky, Kherson oblast, where the Ukrainians have crossed the Dnieper to gain a foothold. The comments describe the situation as difficult and note the strong activity of Ukrainian drones and artillery in…
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2/ The
#KakhovkaReservoir
average depth was 8.4 meters, with the majority of the reservoir depth just 3-5 meters particularly in the upper reservoir basin. These shallow areas are now drained leaving large expanses of river flood plains.
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@HamWa07
FWIW... Today's LANDSAT 8 (08:20 UTC pass) thermal band shows several "race tracks" from an aircraft orbiting over the Sea of Azov south of Prymorsk. Aircraft made several orbits before LANDSAT pass, winds at flight level carried contrails downstream (to the northeast).
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1. Soil Moisture Update: 15 May 2023, a
#NAFOWeather
🧵
I'm "officially" declaring
#MudSeason
over based on limited rainfall since May 1st & marginal rain forecast in the next 2 weeks. Soil is dry enough to support most vehicles across most of the LoC.
1. Soil Moisture
#MudSeason
Update: 8 May 2023
#NAFOWeather
🧵
The past 7 days have been dry (yay!) along the Line of Conflict (LoC) after April's significant rainfall.
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@stillgray
So you're saying Putin is desperate for a pause because he doesn't have anymore tanks or convicts to waste attempting to take 1 km of wasteland, but he wants to keep the 20% of Ukraine his stole while he restocks war supplies. Got it.
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1. Ruschist operation of Kakhovka HPP (K-HPP) dam has been reckless. Kakhovka Reservoir (KR) water level has alternated from record low to record high in just 3 months. Loop (6 FEB-6 MAY 2023) shows sand bars receding with rising KR water.
#NAFOWeather
🧵
#KakhovkaReservoir
is rising at a rapid pace (even for spring peak flow season), with water level increasing 2.35 meters in a month. 30 APR 2023 level of 17.01 meters is the highest water level ever recorded in 30 years, 0.28 meters above the 1995 record.
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@wartranslated
There is a spillway, not much of a bridge. Can't easily "blowup" an earthen causeway.
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1. A backgrounder on how soil moisture changes over time. A
#NAFOWeather
🧵
2/
#BLUF
The trafficability forecast (below) is based on current and predicted rainfall which are well above normal for near the Line of Conflict (LoC). In general, trafficability is delayed about 1 month versus normal.
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1/ Spring is in full-swing! I've been hanging out at the
#NAFO
Technical Library to answer this question: How is the vegetation "green-up" cycle going and what does that mean for offensive/defensive operations? A
#NAFOWeather
🧵
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5/ 1940's maps of the area between Zaporizhzhia and Kakhovka show several pre-Kakhovka dam Dnipro River crossings and roads which may provide UAF bridgehead opportunities which are described in the next several tweets.
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@ChrisO_wiki
"He realised that no one wanted the truth, no one wanted to correct the mistakes, everyone just wants to sit on the seat of power. He realised he couldn't help the army he gave his whole life to." The fate of Russian true believers in Putin's post-truth house of mirrors.
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6/ Upper Kakhovka Reservoir Basin: Bilen'ke-Vasylivka River Crossing, the longest 1940s era river road in the Kakhovka Reservoir Basin (>20 km).
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25/ When river bed will dry sufficiently to support military vehicles remains a question. Greatest soil drying will occur in August-September before soil becomes muddy again in the late fall. Dnipro River flow will also be lower in the late summer. /end
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Using differential thermal heating/cooling rates of mines versus soil to identify and map mines at maximum thermal contrast against the background is a brilliant application of drone technology.
#NAFOWeather
@Teoyaomiquu
‘Drones equipped with heat sensors are the latest [Ukrainian] weapons. These seek out Russian mine positions by looking for heat signatures in the 30-60 minutes before sunset, when the metal mines have heated up just enough.’
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@RpsAgainstTrump
2 seats give Repubs control of the House. Why is it unimaginable to consider Dems and Repubs working together to move critical legislation?
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@Tendar
@Havoc_Six
A broad daylight public execution in Prigozhyn's business sends a message. FSB's fingerprints are all over it.
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Kakhovka Reservoir water level continues its dramatic drop with the latest height observation (JAN 21) at 14.50 meters above MSL, dropping at a rate of 1.0 meter per month. If this rate of discharge continues, the reservoir could reach "dead level" in 1.5 months (around MAR 1).
Ground truth from
@novakakhovka_ua
on Kakhovka Reservoir level and ecological impacts.
Reminder: Kherson & Zaporizhzhia Oblast irrigation is dependent on water from this reservoir.
@tom_bike
#NAFOWeather
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@bayraktar_1love
Actually, it IS time to panic!
"Antonovsky Bridge is completely destroyed"
Russian soldiers have reportedly posted an update from the Kherson region of Ukraine: "We aren’t just moving back. We are retreating, I can’t even find a word for it. This is an escape… There is nowhere to run. Antonovsky bridge is completely destroyed."
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@revishvilig
Wouldn't "an ordinary, innocent fisherman" have some fishing poles, net, tackle box, maybe some fish? This equipment seems lacking to meet the criteria for said "ordinary fisherman".
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Amazing! Four ships in Ukraine's humanitarian grain corridor RIGHT NOW...
Southbound: AROYAT
Northbound: AZARA, YING HAO 01, ENEIDA to export 127K tones of agroproducts and iron ore for China 🇨🇳 , Egypt 🇪🇬 and Spain 🇪🇸.
⛴️3 new cargo vessels are on the way to enter Chornomorsk and Pivdenij ports for loading export products.
Bulk carriers AZARA, YING HAO 01, ENEIDA is using temporary corridor established by the Ukrainian Navy in order to export 127K tones of agroproducts and iron ore for China…
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Recently observed and next 10 day forecast for precipitation is above normal particularly for Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. As such, trafficability throughout most of the Line of Conflict will likely be poor to marginal for the next 2 weeks (through May 1st).
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Discussion (30 June 2023):
Left: 10-25 mm rain fell near most of the LoC except Kherson in the past 24 hours.
Right: Dry and increasingly warmer next 7 days with DANGEROUS HIGH TEMPERATURE above 36C near the LoC by 4-7 JUL. Force Protection = Hydration!!!
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7/ Upper Kakhovka Reservoir Basin: Bilen'ke-Vasylivka River Road Crossing
Left: Navigation Bathymetry
Right: Ship Density Heat Map (2021)
The Upper KR Basin is widest (23 km) and most shallow of the all basins with only the right bank dredged shipping lanes deeper than 5 meters.
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This you
@SpeakerJohnson
?
One Russian propagandist noted, “This will be a great revelation to other countries. It is even more dangerous to be a friend of the United States than its enemy. In the end, they will abandon you, leaving nothing but the scorched earth on your territory.”
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1/ Who is operating the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (K-HPP)? What have K-HPP operator done that has caused the Kakhovka Reservoir to drop to 30 year low levels risking drinking water for millions and irrigation for 250 million hectares? A
#NAFOWeather
🧵
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Kreminna 14-Day Extended Weather Forecast shows much colder sub-freezing temperatures beginning December 1st ending fall mud season as soil freezes.
Alert: Expedite winter weather kit, generators, and heaters.
#NAFO
#NAFOWeather
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@Mylovanov
Worth mentioning that Poland "lost its independence" from the combined and coordinated German and Russian "war machines". Putin is BAD at history, modestly good at myth-making (if we let Putin get away with his lies).
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8/ Upper Kakhovka Reservoir Basin: Bilen'ke-Vasylivka River Road Crossing
Left: Sentinel 1 SAR (20 JUN 2023)
Right: Ground Truth (18 JUN 2023)
SAR and local photos shows broad expanse of mud flats with numerous small pools.
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9/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Middle Basin Roads on 1940s maps: There were two road crossings from Nikopol
a. Nikopol-Vodiane
b. Nikopol-Kamyanka
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@yasminalombaert
I anticipate a dramatic increase the minister's kinetic energy followed by a sudden deceleration.
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@ColbyBadhwar
US Army Bean Counter: Its is WAY cheaper to have UAF dispose of aged-out ordinance on Russian occupied airfields than to hire a US contractor to dispose of them following USA, EPA, etc regulations.
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@NOELreports
Russians (likely) moved the right bank landing from immediately adjacent to the Antonovsky Bridge (and destroyed barge bridge to the waterfront park as identified by Sentinel 1 SAR, November 9, 2022. Please RT!
@GeoConfirmed
46.675327 32.738276
@DefenceU
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November 2nd Sentinel 2 imagery shows ferry activity downstream of the Kakhovka HPP dam in the east (south) channel of the Dnipro River making a "granary" circuit through the canal.
@GeoConfirmed
46.75544 33.3231
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24/ With UAF making steady progress towards Vasylivka and RF rotating Dnipro group forces from left bank Kherson, lower basin crossings may be an interesting bridgehead opportunity for UAF to consider.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 June 2023.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language:
🇺🇦
#StandWithUkraine
🇺🇦
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11/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Middle Basin: 1940s Roads
Planet Imagery
Left: 13 June 2023
Right: 18 June 2023
Significant draining of basin revealing river channel and even old road bed (Nikopol-Kamyanka)
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⚡️Trainings of Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 were supposed to start in June, but this, despite promises, did not happen, - Foreign Minister Kuleba.
"There was a promise to start training in June from one of the countries, now they say that they continue to prepare for the start…
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@DefMon3
... like REALLY long jump!
Video showing damage to the Antonovsky Bridge after it was destroyed by Russian forces.
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@TreasChest
Putin is fighting a war of his choice, Ukraine is fighting for its life. Ukraine will bot only outlast Russia, it will fight to defeat Russia, because it must.
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Hey
@POTUS
@SecDef
@SecBlinken
... How many Ukrainian civilians, churches, schools and apartments is the US going to let Russia kill and destroy before the US sends
#ATACMS
? "We don't have enough missiles" is a morally bankrupt answer.
Odesa’s main Orthodox cathedral. Established in 1794, destroyed by Stalin in 1936, rebuilt under an independent Ukraine and destroyed again by Putin in 2023. One of several historical parts of central Odesa, a UNESCO world heritage site, hit by Russian missiles strikes today.
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@juampi_v8
@wartranslated
As it is required...
Russian priest says that if women had as many children as God intended for them to have, they wouldn't be as sad when their sons are mobilized.
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@wartranslated
So by saying there is a significant amount of pro-Ukrainian population in occupied territories, he is admitting the annexation vote was a huge fraud. Okay.
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@wartranslated
I can't understand the faith these mobiks have that their tsar will hear their pleas & solve all their problems. Russians are pathetic.
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2/ Consequence: Ice forming on shallow lake near Myrne, 49.053571 37.934334, 0.8x2.5 km.
Left: The Sentinel 2 image from DEC 4th definitely shows lake ice forming.
Right: Sentinel 2 image from OCT 15th provided for comparison.
If lake ice is forming, the soil is freezing too.
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@bayraktar_1love
I LOVE seeing
#ClipboardGuy
making an appearance, it means UAF is making Swiss Cheese out of Ru AF escape and supply routes!
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10/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Middle Basin Roads
Left: Navigation Bathymetry
Right: Ship Density Heat Map (2021)
Dnipro main channel runs nearest Nikopol (right bank). Zaporizhzhia NPP cooling point built in the Konka River channel (left bank).
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@MarkHertling
OG: Gamer, gun lover, anti-globalist, incel, older man hangs with 17 year olds trying to impress them. Likely Trump voter, anti-Biden. Pathetic. US routinely allows gross violation of OPSEC damaging US and ally security. No wonder our ally hesitate to share info with the US.
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*** Absolutely NO PONTOONS ***
... but FIRMS identified fires today in a non-agricultural region, Korsunka on the left bank.
46.7510731 33.1997083
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18/ Summary of total river basin crossing distance and major/minor water crossing distances for 6 roads shown 1940s as well as and distance to vital territory to the south.
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@bayraktar_1love
That's going in the right direction, hoping to see something with that range that can take down a (Kerch) bridge, but maybe that type of missile won't be announced.
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@DefMon3
Yes, the "river" is very dry, loop is the past 3 months since Kakhovka Reservoir was drained. Grass (bright green) now growing where the inlet area was. To the west of the levee, wetlands are forming surrounded by sand.
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Nothing says "successful winter offensive" like firing the general that commanded the winter offensive and calling him a "crazy idiot". Seems unfair, isn't every Muscovy general capable of ordering soldiers to go to certain death?
"He was a crazy idiot." Putin dismissed the general who failed the offensive on Vuhledar
Colonel General Rustam Muradov was dismissed from his post as commander of the Eastern Military District and removed from command in Ukraine just 7 months after his appointment, two military…
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13/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Lower Basin: Current navigation map shows bathymetry near 1940s road between Havrylivka and Velyka Lepetykha.
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@Mike_Eckel
So, Republicans are taking our vulnerable international partners hostage at their most critical time of need. Kinda like tRump did to President Zelensky when he asked for a "favor".
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12/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Lower Basin Roads shown on 1940s maps: Havrylivka-Velyka Lepetykha
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