Commodities MacGruber
@GoForGrubes2
Followers
5,337
Following
1,065
Media
268
Statuses
7,670
Commodities Investor. Very Long Oil and Coal. 60% Commodities, 20% Special Sits and 20% Short Garbage. *Not Investment Advice* Now kind of a Bitcoin douche!
SW Florida
Joined April 2022
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
RIIZE
• 111818 Tweets
Hobi
• 82400 Tweets
Noa Argamani
• 46754 Tweets
#yks2024
• 44223 Tweets
مخيم النصيرات
• 38475 Tweets
#SHEESHbyDMDBOYS
• 37102 Tweets
オカシラ連合
• 28591 Tweets
Shlomi Ziv
• 25799 Tweets
Andrey Kozlov
• 25468 Tweets
サイバー攻撃
• 24925 Tweets
ビーズリー
• 24912 Tweets
Almog Meir Jan
• 23109 Tweets
キスマイ
• 20612 Tweets
烈火の炎
• 19459 Tweets
#ドッキリGP
• 15338 Tweets
プロ初勝利
• 15149 Tweets
Vefa Küçük
• 13769 Tweets
マッサマン
• 13051 Tweets
#tyt2024
• 11166 Tweets
東キヨドーム
• 10791 Tweets
As many of you know, I was diagnosed with Cancer in January.
This has been the most trying year of my Life.
Bro, Sis and Peeps, it gives me great pleasure to inform you that I'm now CANCER FREE!
🥳 🍾
These things tend to reoccur, so I won't tempt fate too much, but for now
93
11
1K
This is incredibly difficult for me to write
Last week I was diagnosed w/Cancer
Next week I begin every imaginable test at MD Anderson's World renowned Cancer Center in Houston w/surgery soon to follow
Somewhat amusingly, I actually feel great right now. I ran 25+ miles
102
0
329
I'm back to locked account mode
For those who don't know, I have cancer (which is a preposterous thing to write)
I have a fairly gnarly surgery this week and will be 'off' for awhile
I'm asking for one more prayer to beat this and heal 🙏
I will probably be monitoring my fave
76
0
321
Thing I want her to hold is BTU. I REALLY want those dividends for my Family - now more than ever
It's been a joy hanging out with you all. I've met some of the most amazing people ever from this platform.
Hopefully, I'll be back to shitposting this Summer
🙏❤️💪
80
0
288
Bought 10K more shares of $BTU, my largest position by far
At ~$23
- $14-$15 of cash at the end of Q1
- NO DEBT
- Greater FCF in '22 than Netflix
- '23 is 90% pre-sold
The best buy on my board
13
19
226
An update for my $BTU Brothers, my Coaaaaallll Sisters & the most inclusive group in
#Coaltwitter
, my Peabody People
I spoke w/The Company yesterday and was pleasently surprised with what I learned
The Topic - Just Debt
It's complicated + messy. But about to vanish, soon
1/10
18
35
223
Friends, the outpouring of well wishes, advice & prayers has been one of the most astounding gestures of love I've ever received
I intended to thank every single person personally but spent 4 hours on it yesterday and barely made a dent
For now, I have to focus all my efforts
9
0
187
As a follow-up to my $BTU debt update, I've now gone further down the rabbit hole
A brief BTU primer:
$2.775B MC
$1B+ Cash
$937M Debt (my calcs)
$270M Hedge Cash returning in 2H
$800M Conservative 2H FCF
- The Provocative Question -
***Where can we be by Year End?***
1/13
An update for my $BTU Brothers, my Coaaaaallll Sisters & the most inclusive group in
#Coaltwitter
, my Peabody People
I spoke w/The Company yesterday and was pleasently surprised with what I learned
The Topic - Just Debt
It's complicated + messy. But about to vanish, soon
1/10
18
35
223
8
31
184
@contrarian8888
@trader_ferg
Was a buyer of BTU at $6. Added alot more at $11.
Now have added the most in the low 20s.
To paraphrase another coal post from yesterday, BTU in the low 20's NOW, is arguably a safer/better play than it was at $6 when the risks were substantially higher.
11
8
182
$BTU $AMR $ARCH $CEIX $WHC.ax
I don't care which one you own - but you need exposure to this asset class
Most are trading at 1.5x FCF
Most have now substantially reduced if not eliminated debt and now are in aggressive buyback and/or dividend programs
The best asset class IMO
Coal Giants Are Making Mega Profits as Climate Crisis Grips the World: BBG
Yes they are, thank ESG
30
116
1K
18
14
177
Blessed life highlighted by a gorgeous wife + soon to be, 4 kids
I'm asking that you say a brief prayer for our Family
We can REALLY use it right now
I will obviously be off Twitter for awhile and paring my positions
In a bit of morbid planning, I told my wife that the only
9
0
171
I haven't bought much in 2H other than some BTU...
However, I spent the last few days getting a decent clip of $PBR
I spent alot of October reading up on the 🇧🇷 Election...and while I don't totally love the outcome, it's hard for me to pass up sub $9.25
Also, it has Options 🔑
13
4
154
Just bought 10,000 more shares of $BTU at $21.68
I swore to myself that I was done buying but have had a terrific few weeks with my shorts...
#treatyoself
19
2
149
On research and as much quality time w/my Fam as possible
I've been connected with 20+ incredible professionals + survivors who can help me
I'm absolutely ready to run thru a brick wall & my spirits are 🚀🚀
I promise to reciprocate the love at a later date
THANK YOU
❤️🙏💪
9
0
140
This was excellent, and I wanted to delay posting prior to getting a chance to digest.
$BTU now has a MC of $2.7B and share price has steadily fallen since the 'Shareholder Returns' announcement.
With $1.3B of cash and Q2 likely to meet/exceed Q1 FCF - AND - 90%+ production
$BTU Peabody Energy
Overview
Energy is the cheapest sector in the S&P 500 relative to earnings, even lower than financials. Amongst the energy names, there’s one sector that remains supremely cheap - coal. $BTU is a contrarian and emerging markets investment.
Isn’t coal going
10
44
212
13
28
135
Accounts and possibly be even re-tweeting important notes
However, please don't ask how I'm doing or for an update. I'll likely be severely weakened and not have the energy to respond.
That said, I will give you a proper update once I'm BACK and ready to kick ass
❤️🙏💪
17
0
122
It's difficult to over emphasize how damaging the 10 Yr near 4% is to the 'real' Economy.
The last time we reached nearly 4.2%, equities mightily sold off.
We are getting CLOSE.
Positive momentum charts and inertia are all that's holding us up right now.
A mega disconnect.
8
18
124
Some general thoughts on $BTU Capital allocation:
@omniamea
@8750Capital
We have a beautiful beef tenderloin. Everyone will be fed + happy - the only Q is how to carve up the returns
Personally, I believe the start will be $5 dividends. If possible, I would like 42c monthly
11
11
121
Wife gave birth to
#4
last week. All are happy and healthy.
But she has CRAVINGS.
She wanted a lighter version of my Thanksgiving Turkey + Mushroom Risotto.
Tonight, she + kids, received a Grouper Filet served over Pea Risotto.
And we're watching Minions.
Mochis to follow.
20
2
120
This week, lifted weights and did Yoga
My illness is quite rare, which makes prospects for recovery an unknown
I'm posting this with the hopes that it's a kick in the ass for YOU in any aspect it can help
Whatever you've been putting off - DO IT NOW
I've lived a wonderfully
3
0
113
$BTU fun fact of the day from the Q2 10-K:
A $10/barrel change in the price of Crude Oil would increase or decrease its annual fuel costs by $23M based on expected usage
We're now ~$40/bl less than the average Q2 Crude price
Coal is NOT oil & Oil is NOT coal.
4
7
112
Happy $ARCH ex-dividend day to all who celebrate!
My 'dividends receivable' hit my account this AM - a whopping $10.75 per share
This is merely a preview of what's to come for $BTU and why I'm an absolute freak for
#Coal
12
3
106
A bunch of my fave Twitterers decided to jump into 🇧🇷 Oil...
@contrarian8888
@agnostoxxx
@Seawolfcap
@judahrhodie
@mfwarder
@YellowLabLife
@calvinfroedge
@JamesHMackay
@_Vd718
@JBLcapital
The last time I put together a Team, it started like this...
15
4
106
If anyone has a good Instructional Video on Twerking they can share, I am EAGER and WILLING to learn
This $BTU news has me ready to TWERK on every car in town, for at least the next few days
This is Spring Break & My Birthday in 1
FINALLY, we all got the news we wanted to hear
$BTU fans rejoice: it is over (until episode 3, anyways)
$CRN $CRN.AX
#CoalTwitter
@mfwarder
@8750Capital
13
31
191
11
3
99
Just sold some $BTU $26 puts expiring Jan 13th for $1.55
A zillion catalysts in the near term
We could hear about Surety or further debt reductions literally any day
5
1
100
Barry is a LEGEND...
1 - He's correct on all of this
2 - The Fed in it's own words - is going to wreck the housing market (not a big deal for those w/fixed Res or Comm Loans - 80% of my debt is fixed BTW)
3 - 8% loans are possible though it should be brief
4 - Be careful w/RE
The U.S. economy is "braking hard" and CEO confidence is "miserable," billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht told
@SquawkCNBC
.
15
28
98
14
28
101
A fine reminder on this day of gorgeous $BTU short squeezery...
Place GTC sell orders on your shares at the highest price which your Brokerage system will allow you
Those sneaky peeps at IB canceled mine last week
I just set mine at the MAX
Make it hard to borrow!
10
5
100
Back in Houston for more appointments - GOOD news thus far!
I've been an exceedingly good boy in terms of diet/lifestyle changes, etc
11 days ago, my wife and I walked from MD Anderson to
@XochiHou
and had the BEST meal we've had in 18 months!
After landing today, I went back!
10
1
95
Wowowowow
$NVDA is now my largest short...and this news this is absolutely bonkers
I'm genuinely shell shocked. Can't wait to watch how the market reacts the next few days...
$NVIDIA FILES $10B MIXED-SECURITIES SHELF
(I don’t care but I really wanted to use this meme
@RudyHavenstein
)
29
13
323
12
4
96
Important $BTU reminder for
@8750Capital
and others
Tomorrow is the day that ALL remaining 2024 debt can be paid off at 105% of PAR
Debt holders held out b/c the Co was TOO good of a credit risk
That leaves only:
2025 Debt
2028 Debt $320M @ only 3.25%
ARO
Surety
I was going
3
0
94
Ok, so we nailed this one...$BTU
Notes of interest to me:
It appears that 2024 and 2025 Debt are now entirely paid off!
The $320M remaining in LT debt s/b the 2028 convertible.
(This should be the LEAD BTW)
Grech 'we are actively addressing the remaining reqs to implement
As a follow-up to my $BTU debt update, I've now gone further down the rabbit hole
A brief BTU primer:
$2.775B MC
$1B+ Cash
$937M Debt (my calcs)
$270M Hedge Cash returning in 2H
$800M Conservative 2H FCF
- The Provocative Question -
***Where can we be by Year End?***
1/13
8
31
184
10
3
90
#CoalTwitter
#Coal
$BTU $ARCH $AMR
Allow me to put on my David Lee Roth Leather Leotard and kick off a Coal-Fired Conspiracy:
@contrarian8888
@dyer440
@respeculator
@James56487175
@aggresivevalue
@Edark94
@zhanginu
@Ultradeep3
@trader_ferg
@mfwarder
@OutlierValue
1/12
5
10
89
For those disappointed that Oil isn't up more today while other inflation trades are ripping
This week is 'rollover' in the monthly CL contract
For those who are long - and don't wish to take physical delivery, these contracts get liquidated by Brokerages, which temporarily
2
9
92
I don't talk about my Crude Oil plays for about a million different reasons
I'm watching Call Prices (several weeks out) jump higher than I'd expect them to be
This could get very interesting👀
I'm not saying buy calls...I'm just watching the prices escalate higher than usual
7
3
88
Lovvvvvve that Kuppy + Crew have flagged $BTU and are aware of the buybacks
And no, I haven't sold a single share...
Massive buyback from $BTU flagged in our most recent report. Here's the skinny...
$BTU buying back $1 billion & plans to return at least 65% of free cash flow to shareholders. Keep in mind that their total market cap is only$3.5 billion 👀
8
29
222
2
3
89
Coal & Energy with a shoutout...
“There is a high probability in my mind that the market at best is going to be kind of flat for 10 years. Sort of like 66 to 82 time period.”
Stanley Druckenmiller is expecting market chop for 10 years.
“Whatever you think it will be worse.” (Wifey)
38
164
1K
3
9
90
Woah!!!
@contrarian8888
Puts are GONNA print tomorrow...
Red Wedding Day is in Play...
APPLE DITCHES IPHONE PRODUCTION INCREASE AFTER DEMAND FALTERS $AAPL
0
256
1K
9
2
88
Man, this was GOOD...
Apart from him hating my Volatility Long in the short-term, listen to what
@jam_croissant
says about:
The $
10-Year (my Jam, pun INTENDED)
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Copper
Onshoring
Brilliant dude and love this insight
Someone get
@PauloMacro
a Cool Towel...
We put
@jam_croissant
in the hot seat on
@tastytrade
.
Asked for his short term directional opinion on everything: $SPY, $TNX , $VIX, $USD, $EWW, $EWZ, $INDA, $USO, $CCJ
CC:
@CVecchioFX
36
65
488
0
7
88
Some $BTU short is getting his balls squeezed today.
I have no idea whether it continues, but if so, don't forget we trade at a $3 deficit based on the HIGH short interest.
There's been historical HUGE spikes as shorts are forced to cover.
Could get spicy.
6
4
89
MacGruber HQ made an impromptu weekend trip to Miami and are milking every day we have together
Tonight's dinner was Aida Mexican Seafood and was A+
Lady Mac is deeply preggo and couldn't partake but sharing a dozen Oysters w/our 8-year old is ❤️
3 orders of Octopus, Shrimp
9
0
82
Eliant is one of the best 5 accounts on Twitter
I'm joining along in this $MCB short
I speak with alot of banks and almost nothing good is happening...and that's before you get to contagion.
$MCB seems to be condoning illegal activities via money laundering… kinda surprised there isn’t more eyes on this… similar to $SBNY but it’s a much smaller bank… have been digging into the rabbit hole
@AlderLaneEggs
@Cryptadamist
has done some great work on it.
6
9
84
6
5
80
Been slowly layering on a decent $NVDA short position w/proceeds from the other covers (covered some ETSY as well)
Great company but the stock might be $100+ overvalued?
This run-up feels like a mega gift.
In an objective world, the market would have punished them to sub-200
8
0
81
Who will be standing.
I'm aligned and have made this my
#1
position.
More effective communication on debt reduction & following the Eric Nuttall model of Optimal Debt Targets then FCF allocated to Buybacks/Divs is 🔑
If wrong on anything, will clarify post thread
10/10
10
2
73
Making gruyere grilled cheese + soup for Christmas Lunch
Last night's Tenderloin was A++
'A Christmas Story' on, presents opened (we went LIGHT and had no complaints) & prepping for an afternoon of naps + games
Maybe some hot tub if we find TIME
All is RIGHT in the World
12
1
74
My man Hugh with an absolute BANGER of a $BTU thread...
1. Cancel your Afternoon Calls
2. Brew a pot of Sanka
3. Fire up your Abacus
4. Read this several times
Particularly the jist of - it's all going to come together at once and be OVERWHELMING...
Kudos!
4
5
72
Happy belated Thanksgiving to all Americans and wannabe turkeys.
We returned home from North Carolina late last week to squeeze in Thanksgiving, a kid's birthday, Home Alone viewing and hang our Christmas Tree.
I'm especially grateful this year to be ALIVE.
Our Fam is healthy,
3
0
71
Sold some $BTU $30 Feb-24 puts in the final hour yesterday - a starter position.
I wrote earlier that had the Company simply issued a PR in Mid-December that we'd be debt free by end of Jan, the stock wouldn't have dipped below $30
Being debt free, while great, isn't the end
4
1
70
Love it when ZH posts about $BTU
It's a beat!
My guess was $400M of earnings plus $100M of hedging returns
I was a little heavy on earnings and quite heavy on hedging returns
Q4 is setting up brilliantly
#justsayNOtoCoronado
BTU:
Revenue $1.34 billion, +98% y/y, estimate $1.27 billion
EPS $2.33 vs. loss/shr 38c y/y
Adjusted Ebitda $438.9 million, +52% y/y, estimate $421.8 million
5
18
131
4
2
70
🎶 The Hilllllls are alive...with the Sounds of MacGruberrrrrsss🎶
MacGruber HQ is BACK in Park City for 2 weeks & we're having a blast!
Yesterday, we went on a 3+ hour 'hike', which with 3/4 of our youth under 4.5, is the equivalent of 3 legs of the Tour de France plus a night
5
0
68
$BTU is gonna go GREEN today...it may take until tomorrow BUT the market is going to realize that there's $230M more of buybacks completed/in process than there were yesterday.
8%+ more of the float.
So many were unaware that buybacks had even begun.
IR told us w/o telling us.
6
5
69
Elliott has now SOLD more than HALF of the 5M $BTU shares they intended to sell, according to last night's filing.
A total of 2,534,827 shares over 9 trading sessions.
At this pace, they should conclude this batch of selling the week of Dec. 11th.
They still own ~18,575,000.
6
5
67
Back in
#Deervalley
for a few weeks of wholesome Family goodness.
I'm so thankful to be back and ALIVE after this harrowing year.
The fireplace is crackling, Christmas Tree is up, our fridge is STOCKED and the kids are off to ski school.
Rad Dad will be mounting up the skiis
6
1
66
I've been distracted by my shorts today & then went on some errands...
Only to return to this $BTU MASTERPIECE!!!
Hugh is providing facts + figures which are assuredly being shared w/Institutional Level Buyers RIGHT NOW
Not enough MacGruber GIFS but that's a minor quibble!
1
1
65
When I read this last week, it immediately clicked, but after a weekend of reflection, I have to state how profound this is.
$BTU is trading at an adjusted '20 Level.
- Tons of cash
- Debt free ('28 Convert is 3.25%)
- Higher Coal Prices
- Tons of 'Pre-Sales' for '23 and '24
Not implying it can't/won't fall further, but for context, $BTU was worth 58% more on a fully-adj liability basis on 12/31/20 at $2.40 per share, than est YE23 at $18.00, with coal prices 85-100% higher
Trading at the equivalent of negative $5.50 at YE20
14
16
125
6
10
66
$150M 'maximum' to eliminate dividend and buyback covenants
Bro, Sis and Peeps...with a boffo earnings report coming up in just 10 days - it's almost TIME!
Errryone thinks we need ALOT more cash and have ALOT more obligations than we actually do
Market still doesn't understand
4
0
65
Patrick is a must follow
He's modeling a 4.7% increase in demand this coming week, which would take us over 9M bbl/day
To put this in perspective, 9M would be on par with early June '22 and ⬆️ than than the July 4th week (notoriously slow)
It's beginning to feel like Summer...
BREAKING: According to GasBuddy data, weekly (Sun-Sat) US gasoline demand rose 3.0% from the prior week and was 2.9% above the four week moving average. We model consumption at 8.65 million barrels per day.
4
25
170
6
5
65
$LULU
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Becky is DOWN - I repeat, Becky is DOWN
CODE BLUE!
(This should be worrisome for ALL Retailers)
7
4
61
This is the Second $BTU post from ZH detailing the high Short Interest in the past few months...
Bros, Sis & Peeps...we are ON the radar
I suspect one of our Coal Brethern who trades large blocks is short RN. I'd be sick to my stomach if I were him.
5
0
62
If $BTU is indeed the top bidder for Daunia (why we tanked today), I'd be THRILLED
Not sure how they'd pay for it, but more high-grade production is exactly what they need
This is fantastic news, but Coal Twitter gonna throw a fit
As a reminder, I want them to have SOME debt
The koala has to think Peabody $BTU investor relations is having a proper day
So no better time to remind everyone the draglines are at Blackwater not Daunia
We all need a good laugh these days
4
1
37
8
3
63
MacGruber now up 50% YTD!
Nailed ALOT of key themes, but what's interesting is that with a bit of luck, I'd be up 150%
I might do a thread on where I fuc$Ed up this year
In 2022, I was one of the best 50 Fintwit accounts (way higher actually). I crested in October '22 at 210%
19
2
96
A reminder that everything I wrote in this $BTU update is STILL IN PLAY
With the Investor Presentation on Nov 17th (I believe) and earnings continuing on the ↗️ path I would like to see/hear:
- NO to Coronado
- Surety renegotiating is ongoing
- More debt reductions
Simple!
As a follow-up to my $BTU debt update, I've now gone further down the rabbit hole
A brief BTU primer:
$2.775B MC
$1B+ Cash
$937M Debt (my calcs)
$270M Hedge Cash returning in 2H
$800M Conservative 2H FCF
- The Provocative Question -
***Where can we be by Year End?***
1/13
8
31
184
11
5
61
Played Tennis w/my oldest this morning. She was JACKED to play after Coco's US Open Win.
Watching NFL Red Zone w/my crew. Football is BACK!
Ate a delicious brisket for lunch.
Buddy of mine puked on me like 3 times.
Buddy also happens to be my 4-month-old Son.
PERFECT day!
3
0
60
Holy crap!
8,500+ $BTU $24 calls for 10/20 traded today.
2,400+ $BTU $25 calls traded as well.
This is well beyond 'unusual'.
It's getting hot up in here!
🔥 🔥 🔥
4
1
60
@eliant_capital
I'm doing the moonwalk up and down my street...while smiling and crotch thrusting
(The neighbors have called the Police)
If this holds, I'm up a Lambo+ from Friday...so, thank you brother
Working on a charitable endeavor and you'll love it when the time comes to announce
6
1
60
It pains me to say but I made a decision to close some shorts if certain price targets were hit
Regrettably, I just closed out my $AAPL Oct 21 $160 puts position
Overall, the trade was a 13 Miata Winner - my best of any options play of '22
I SHATTERED my All-Time Score today
6
0
57
This is an exquisite piece on the 'Coal Thesis' by Trader Ferg...
It's an absolute must read, with specific mentions of $BTU and $WHC.ax
Revisited the coal thesis today.
You can find a link to it in my description.
16
31
261
1
5
58
$EC was the Oil Equity I bought yesterday...I couldn't resist at $8.95 - $9.04
I got off a good sized position but not 'huge'
Will potentially add more once big tech earnings materialize this week
#vivacolombia
5
2
56
Oh, I somehow missed this...
Nice to see Coal Trader joining us in $BTU
Read the thread...so many catalysts here
Kind of hard to ignore now
2
1
54
Confessions of a MacGruber:
1. I've been short Oil for 3 weeks
2. Covered the remainder today
3. Bought an Oil Equity (don't ask) today for the first time in 4 months
4. I'll let you know what when I have my full allocation
@judahrhodie
knows all of my trades and can confirm
7
1
56
Have now closed 75% of my $MRNA short for a MASSIVE winner (retiring Miata references until 100% healthy)
My personal belief is that they played a part in one of the greatest frauds in Human History
%$&# them and anyone who enabled them along the way, and continues to do so
I am HUGELY short $MRNA
This is the correct read IMO
The miss on earnings and pre-market selloff to $131 with a bounce to follow caught a ton of shorts offsides - and then it kept going up
Now they lost the Military Mandate
Down $12+
Horrific and masked side affects = 🫀🔥🧨
5
2
36
3
3
57
I don't post about my main business often b/c all the reasons...
But I am PUMPED that the 55-unit construction project we're building just got under roof prior to Winter arriving with fury!
This building is across from one of the top-50 Universities in the World
🙏🎉🚀🏢
12
0
55
@GFCapPartners
@eliant_capital
I've watched Eliant call 3 bank zero's in a row...on the heels of nailing FTX as well
I didn't hesitate when I saw his post and I loaded up in good size
I should have been some puts though!
4
1
55
❤️❤️❤️
🪓🪓🪓
🚘🚘🚘
Very short $KMX and this is exactly what I want to see.
They 'know'.
Big story is that several Carmax insiders just sold 40%, 75%, and 90% of their respective holdings 🤔
Stock has performed well this year so some selling deff makes sense. But these amounts feel excessive.
Loss of faith in leadership?
A signal of what’s to come?
Something else?
142
176
2K
7
1
53
My year ended the way of Uta Pippig - not a graceful finish!
After topping 206% mid-October, I majorly faltered down the stretch
Still grateful for an incredible year but the dismount was ugly
Coal and Natty faltered late. I botched Fx and Vol. Some shorts went BIG offsides.
8
1
53
Affected by this disease, and it's scariest experience one can imagine.
But the 'other side of the mountain' is magical and exhilirating.
Thank you for helping me get there.
Much love + gratitude
14
0
54
Breaking Coal News: Peabody $BTU acquires rights to Stanmore's $SMR.AX Southern portion of Wards Well tenement.
Deal Highlights:
- $136M in upfront cash
- A contingency royalty of up to $200M based on a variety of factors
- Deal closing in 1H '24
8
8
53
$COIN is now down 7%+ on the day and below $55
Crazy Cathie has a dilemma on her hands
All of her big holdings are facing an earnings or regulatory reality
What will she dump to keep all of her plates spinning?
I think the logical play is to dump $NVDA in size
$COIN has been one of the best tradeable stocks of the year...I think it eventually falls into the toilet bowl and swirls around between $10-$20
That said, when it's above $70...and Cathie will push it there often, is a GREAT time to get short IMO
4
1
20
13
4
51
Would all be retired...
But MOST importantly, I'd never have to spend another minute contemplating Peabody Debt.
Caveat - I don't have a Corporate Finance background but my life is 50% focused on Optimal Debt.
If wrong about anything, will add to the thread.
13/13
9
0
51
Oh, what do we have here?
Just a casual 3,400+ $BTU $23 December 15th calls bought.
Is this unsual? Yes, WILDLY so.
You think people might have learned after this latest acquisition.
This ain't the Coal Stock to short or fade.
3
3
52
I will forever love Rice Village and the surrounding neighborhoods for being 'tree lined' and allowing me to keep up a rather intense fitness regime.
And thank you for all of your Love, Prayers and Support on my Cancer Journey.
I pray that it 'ends' in September 🙏
12
0
51
Closed these out at 13c for a .9 Miata Winner!
Better use of that 'availability' for another week...
But LFG $BTU
Just sold some $BTU $26 puts expiring Jan 13th for $1.55
A zillion catalysts in the near term
We could hear about Surety or further debt reductions literally any day
5
1
100
4
0
49
There have been many INSANE stock market winners due to new car deficiencies and the corresponding inflation in the used car markets.
If this is even remotely true, it really sets up an unbelievable series of trades.
I'm hot and bothered just thinking about it.
6
4
50
Last night of MacGruber cooking in Deer Valley.
My wife is like a 6-day per week Vegetarian (it's more like 5).
When she craves meat, she LOVES Rack of Lamb. Our kids do as well.
One of the ways we mark time is how much food we need to feed our group.
We are now a 4-Rack
8
0
49
I'm currently building that 55-unit project across from one of the Top-50 Universities in the World.
We're now drywalled on 1/2 the units and progress is A+
The interesting note is that our lender (and my fave) has now stopped lending on ALL New Construction.
They have ZERO
3
3
47
DEGENERATE ALERT 🚨 🚨 🚨
My wife is back in on $SMCI at ~$882.50
She promises not to be so greedy this time
From her:
My Mom says usually between 11:30 and 12:30 there's a dip. That's when we should buy.
Who TF are these people and what happened to my WIFE?!?!?
My wife got stopped out at $980 yesterday. I told her to just press sell at $999.
She then was STEWING last night when she saw it $1040 in AH
How dare her husband and Mom suggest she sell?
Today's $SMCI high was $1077.54
Now $877
Hotshot is at Yoga but needs to buy back in
6
0
28
12
1
48
I would also add that for those who can plug their nose and stomach this - that IMO the market has the energy trade completely wrong
This will allow BTU to start buybacks at massively reduced prices. It's absolutely an amazing opportunity if you don't care about the price for
3
2
48
I took a decent sized position in $SAVE this week.
Plenty of GREAT analysis + opinions on X.
Stock at $15ish.
If deal falls apart, maybe $5-$7ish.
If deal goes thru, maybe $28-$29.
Closing arguments this week.
Ruling by EOY.
Odds appear to be rising that a deal gets done.
Just going over some of the main points of the $JBLU $SAVE trial, it's shocking to me how poorly argued the govt case has been. Aggressive claims, but just plain poorly argued/evidenced. Like they literally got their expert to do all their mkt analysis re harm on 2017-19 data...
8
7
99
4
1
48
Also, I should point out that the new IR person (who has been great) says they're working feverishly to wrap up Surety issues by EOM and said it 'could' drift a few days into April
It's getting done and soon. And I guarantee that these lower prices will speed up urgency.
1
1
48
Bros, Sis & Peeps...
This was a GOOD week
Crushed my ATH and now up 163% YTD
The final 90 minutes of the session were wild and I'm too exhausted to articulate it
I closed some shorts, rolled others, added back hedges I bought back earlier
Yanking out all of my weekly gains
11
0
47
MacGruber HQ is an infirmary at the moment.
Kids are all sick. My wife is struggling.
I'm now down for the count.
Hopefully, I will be back online Thursday.
Market pricing in the softest of landings, while energy is pricing in a global depression.
🤢
10
1
47
When I see Porter make a statement like this, it gets me all fired up to watch The Big Short again!
@8750Capital
It's our largest position and we have no plan on selling anytime soon. The stock is stupidly cheap. When everybody has their hair on fire with CPI prints, we are happy to own 50% FCF yielding stocks. Lots of room for eventual errors...
1
4
110
2
1
46
$BTU brief ER overview:
- Net Income was light but incl. a $33.7M provision for losses at Shoal Creek & NARM
- Company bought back $251M of shares in the Q - over 8% of the float.
- No press release on the above 🫤
- I thought they were authorized for $159M-$169M and waiting
3
3
46
Sold (100) $BTU October $23 puts here for $4
We are laughably oversold and I'm NOT finished selling puts at/near these levels
Today's a day where NOONE wants to buy...
I just closed out 80% of my shorts and have never had greater account 'availability'
Will put to use slowly
8
0
45
Junior Account just popped above 100% YTD. Had to screenshot and share.
I trade ALOT in this account so it will likely be short lived!
Most of my gains came AFTER I finished Radiation in July.
Almost no energy exposure.
Goal of 150%.
8
0
46
Of these larger, cash machines will switch to dividend models at shareholder insistence
I'm primed and ready for this
80%+ of the longs I've purchased in '22 have a dividend/distribution policy - OR is headed in that direction
Cheers to all of us in 2023!
4
1
46
Nice day for our Oil & Coalies
$BTU finally breaking out from that $19.50 range. The aggressive seller (or short) went away Thursday PM as I mentioned🔑
I bought back a few of the $22 puts I'd sold
Also, some jerk assigned me 1200 shares of $ARCH last night. Huge favor!
1
0
45
I'm a subscriber to The Shrubstack. Top 5 for me, easily.
I bought $SMCI calls in anticipation of S&P news. Hoping for a 4-5x based on after hours pricing reaction.
Unfortunately, I also went larger on another name, but my SMCI calls should more than make up for it.
“$SMCI surges as AI server maker set to join S&P 500” - Reuters
🌳🔮
The possible event was discussed in Shrubstack (the article was free so not my fault if you have ADHD).
I also tweeted that $SMCI will peak when it gets added in the S&P.
That’s on March 18th … 🍿🍿🍿
40
12
277
5
2
46
Very important trend to watch...
'22's narrative was that Russian Production would rapidly fall off and $200/barrel was imminent.
Sadly, that never came to fruition.
If this current trend accelerates, I'm getting back long.
3 weeks into June, Russian crude exports are actually falling.
8
37
209
4
5
44