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Over the past two months, our capital cycle and asset allocation signals have shifted much more bullish on US banks, reacting positively to improving ROEs even as loan loss provisioning has remained high. This is also a key 2026 theme.

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Cash buffers built up by the wealthiest US households since Covid remain substantial. That suggests there is still room for continued "dissaving" from this cohort, supporting resilience in overall consumption.

Our LPPL crash exhaustion models are flagging a disorderly sell-off in $MELI. Seems like the stock has also been hit by the "Business Breakdown" curse. Nevertheless, Latam still has many structural tailwinds. Any thoughts? @LatamStocks @irbezek

Back in October, we noted that a Fed-driven bear steepening in fixed income would be a warning sign for risk assets, signaling market fears that policy is too loose. That process may now be starting. Following last week’s Fed meeting, the SOFR Dec 26–28 curve has begun to

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Last week we highlighted that the euro is set for a major revaluation vis-a-vis Asian currencies over the next several years. Both its nominal trade-weighted index and its relative export prices have reached new all-time highs. On a standardized basis, its real, effective

Our leading indicator for Japanese inflation remains elevated and has not yet rolled over on a 6m-forward basis.

From our November Leading Indicator Watch: "JPY hedge ratios today are likely to be low, creating the conditions for a JPY squeeze. Since the pandemic, we have witnessed a few episodes of disorderly yield surges in Japan. When the 30y yield has surged by 50 bps over 6 months,

In tribute to Byron Wien, we've released our annual 10 surprises for 2026 report. We define surprise as an event that the average investor would assign less than a 33% probability, but which we believe is “Probable,” having a 50%+ likelihood.

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Our quality score is catching up for Chinese tech. Meanwhile, relative to US tech stocks, the sector is trading back to levels seen around Deepseek-R1s release in January. Consensus growth estimates remain muted vs elevated estimates for American tech. From our 10 surprises

We lay out 3 investing takeaways, using our Capital Cycle and quality models to dig into watchlist names. • Takeaway #1 – Historically, geopolitical rivalry has spurred a rapid, large-scale and sustained US response Takeaway #2 – Investing alongside the pillars of

#1 European Great Power Competition (McKinley/Roosevelt, 1897-1909): The US establishes the Americas as the core domain of US strategic control. #2 Axis Confrontation (FDR, 1933-1945): Unprecedented government-led mobilization and expansion of manufacturing capacity. #3

Over the past three years we have written about 3 generational investment shifts: 1. Scarcity, Gov't intervention, and Capex Supercycle (Nov. 2022) 2. The Structural Limits of Fiscal Policy (Apr. 2024) 3. Understanding Global Imbalances (Jun. 2025) This week we released

China growth leading indicator is turning over after strong improvement this year. Both the Fourth Plenum and the Trump-Xi meeting turned out to be underwhelming in terms of additional stimulus/relief measures. More stimulus will be needed to renew economic momentum despite the

The US Treasury data on withheld income taxes shows nominal incomes taxes still growing at >5%

US housing remains a source of disinflation for the next 6 months. Rents continue to slow while more home listing are now seeing price drops than at any point over the past 10 years...

This month we've been talking about 2002-2003 "jobless" growth analogy: Fed kept monetary policy easy while clusters of layoffs were announced, meanwhile we saw elevated excess liquidity after a drawdown in oil prices and recovering capital goods orders and retail sales .

We view emerging market assets as a high beta play on the global liquidity cycle. Therefore, the best environments to own EM assets are when a) global excess liquidity is positive b) EM real money is growing faster than DM. This is a sign that excess liquidity is flowing into

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