Brad Shapiro
@btshapir
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Marketing Professor @ChicagoBooth. Co-editor @QME_Journal. Tweeting about economics, advertising, dogs and sometimes soup. SSRN page: https://t.co/LcTRerqE
@ChicagoBooth
Joined August 2011
As lots of people are liking a post I wrote that has the word "advice" in it, I need to issue my periodic reminder that my advice may in fact be terrible. I know very little, in general.
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Solid article and reporting. But I do find this framing odd (other city papers did same thing). On an absolute basis and compared to the rest of the country, these city councilors are very liberal. That they are sane and pragmatic doesn’t mean they are politically conservative.
It's official: Council approves 2026 budget without Johnson's head tax
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Pretty depressing that one mean letter from US DOT is going to get the @CTA to do what actual CTA customers have been asking for since at least 2022. It is almost like the @CTA cares more about keeping the Federal & State money coming in than the customers. 🤔
A CTA security surge will start tomorrow, increasing the number of cops assigned to the transit system from 77 a day to about 120 per day, officials say. https://t.co/eKzML5JQ6K
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From rock crawling to city cruising, AccuAir's got you covered.
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Doing the unthinkable: Going to Costco and purchasing exactly 1 item 😱
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Lol
There is NO way Stafford should win MVP after that loss. Not after he allowed the punt return TD, three two point conversions, and missed that field goal. No way.
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Fun fact: over my STRONG objections, City Council is set to give Mayor Johnson a $3.7B capital slush fund w/ virtually no oversight. Again today, he made no secret of wanting taxpayers to pay for a Bears stadium. The Bears asked for $2.4B & now the Mayor can borrow & build it!
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The plan was clean. The escape? Not so much. Midway City doesn’t play fair. Wishlist this 4-player coop heist FPS on Steam today.
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It is absurd what a cheap date Democrats are with unions. The Teamsters don’t even try to get Democrats elected anymore, and Dems still endorse their Luddite nonsense, on top of having taxpayers do a $36 billion bailout of their pension fund.
I fully agree with @Teamsters. Self-driving trucks should *always* be supervised by a qualified professional to keep our roads safe. It���s a necessary partnership for America’s highways and economy.
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The City already has $2.4B in unused borrowing authority for projects. Taking on an extra $1.3B for the Mayor’s slush fund doesn’t just warrant scrutiny — it may not be necessary at all! My plan would’ve met our obligations responsibly & avoided pushing the City deeper into debt.
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s proposal to sell $3.8 billion in bonds is facing opposition from a key member of the city council finance committee as the deadline to pass the 2026 budget nears.
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Similar story for managers making business decisions. You *should* use your priors. You *should* update them with data. You *should* make the profit maximizing decision given these things. An RCT estimated treatment effect is neither necessary nor sufficient for this process.
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Scientific researchers are often interested in estimating a causal (average) treatment effect. Parents deciding how to teach their kids to read are trying to make a decision for their kid. These are not the same objectives.
Can't make this thread up. Academia, paraphrased: > "What if it's just a coincidence that kids are learning to read while using Mentava?" > "How can you know if you taught them to read without a randomized controlled trial?" > "Kids used Mentava, and then they could read.
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Indulge yourself with class, style, and sophistication. Dress to impress this holiday season with Gentlemen's Guru. Shop the latest styles in men's formal wear and accessories for the modern gentleman. Get assistance from our Experts Award Winning Brand
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"I created these specific jobs" being used as a positive by a politician causes all manner of perverse effects. People seem to love jobs programs and imagine that they are free. Turns out you have to pay for jobs programs in a variety of ways, either through prices or taxes.
One of the reasons why specific things are scarce or expensive in the US (why are there so few elevators, why are after-school activities so costly) is because of highly sophisticated rent-seeking that seems weirdly socially acceptable in America.
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Reminder that the elevator union's contract explicitly prohibits preassembly and prefabrication in factories:
One of the reasons why specific things are scarce or expensive in the US (why are there so few elevators, why are after-school activities so costly) is because of highly sophisticated rent-seeking that seems weirdly socially acceptable in America.
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Big flaw in this argument: It was never Allen v. Mahomes. It was Bills Defense v. Mahomes. Allen doesn't play defense. And this might be the worst Bills defense of Allen's career.
With Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow eliminated from postseason contention, Josh Allen is now facing the type of playoff path he never has before. More with @tyschmit: 🎧 https://t.co/XFGmG3twbY
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🚨New Working Paper! "California's firearm excise tax is almost fully passed on to consumers", joint with Sara Drango and Sarah Moshary. We study CA's July 2024 implementation of an 11% excise tax on firearms and ammunition. We find that the tax falls ~entirely on customers.
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My annual New Year's message this year is for men-mostly because I have two son-in-laws. You can read the full article at the link. Please share it, too. Two
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Inspections are a critical tool used by regulators to ensure that restaurants, healthcare, housing, etc., are safe. While the exact dates of these inspections are typically unannounced, their general timing is often highly predictable. Our new paper suggests that's a problem. 🧵:
Nursing home effort fluctuates with the inspection cycle, affecting patient survival. Unpredictable inspection schedules may boost effort and save lives, from @ashdgandhi, @andrewolenski, and @maggieshi311
https://t.co/2zxWpM25MV
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Nursing home effort fluctuates with the inspection cycle, affecting patient survival. Unpredictable inspection schedules may boost effort and save lives, from @ashdgandhi, @andrewolenski, and @maggieshi311
https://t.co/2zxWpM25MV
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Interesting new work from @ashdgandhi about nursing homes, this time about the inspections process. The "Charlie Work" episode of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia is totally a thing in nursing homes.
Inspections are a critical tool used by regulators to ensure that restaurants, healthcare, housing, etc., are safe. While the exact dates of these inspections are typically unannounced, their general timing is often highly predictable. Our new paper suggests that's a problem. 🧵:
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"It's disgusting to us, to be honest with you," Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said of giving up 31 points yesterday.
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Josh Allen is the MVP I don’t care about stats and all the other nonsense folks spew about. If you watched this game and didn’t come away saying the same thing, you don’t know ball. Allen is inevitable. Some folks put Drake Maye in his league this week. The youngster is awesome.
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