UK has once again proved to be a world-leader at queuing - based as it is on 'fairness'/horizontal equity. https://t.co/adJEHtvV7w So, re-introduce it into public services? It is what we do well. https://t.co/BYUqVWJoWI @Frances_Coppola @stephenkb @theresecoffey @NorwichChloe

Because of the Compulsory Education & Participation Age (2013) 'Young people are required to continue in education or training until at least their 18th birthday, with various pathways available to them' So, 16 YEAR OLD SCHOOL-LEAVERS, cannot take up a Saturday Job Or any other

And also because it is designated as a test of permanent disability it presumes people are permanently disabled. And not only that basis for what welfare to work help was reversed. Initially aim was to maximise nos who get welfare to work help. Now a tick box to Hotel California

Problems of lack of bens for those out of work perhaps exemplified during COVID - for most a temporary period of ill health. Advice was to sign up for ESA - a disability benefit. WCA became the entry point for ill-health benefits. But as a test of permanency excludes the sick.

Post War reforms have seen a gap in benefit provision for (temporary) sickness benefits for those without work. SSP was set up for those in work & sickness benefits remained for those without work, But then sickness benefits was scrapped & only get bens if 'disabled'.

The large rises in real take home pay over the past decade were partly boosted by centrally determined 'furlough' & NMW. And seems to have led to a big growth in satisfaction of people who have a job with how high their pay is. Employees are taking a bigger % of any growth.

Tapping into the migrant labour force to resolve the COVID based misallocation of resources could be seen as a missed opportunity to resolve some of the Hotel California problems of rising numbers on sickness benefits Can't get a job if don't look for one. No WtW help. @RECNeil

The immigration surge post Covid (exc Ukraine) seems to have been a determined attempt to use work visas to fill the 'labour shortage' jobs. Now downward trend in immigration may be reasserting itself. This 'Covid' effect may also explain emigration surge? & it too may not last.

Scrap UC taper lets overall Benefit Cap to be reformed to become more flat rate & universal. Scrapping £100k taper enables 45% rate to be lowered to £100k from £125,140. [I'd also lower 40% rate to £50k. & if can afford it scrap Child Benefit taper.] & scrap other tax breaks.

Focusing on delivering a universal basic floor would enable reform aimed at simplifying design & making easier to deliver. Raising state pension & Income Tax Allowance by 2 1/2% pa enable pension only h'holds not paying tax. & tidy up system by scrapping UC & £100k tapers.

Linking basic pensioner income & rise in basic tax free income for workers in this way provides more financial certainty, is affordable if economic policies are successful, & as a 5 yr review in case there miss inflation/growth targets are missed. And establishes a basic floor.

HAPPY NEW YEAR Peace & Joy to the World. And prosperity to all.

Despite UK having v. real real take home pay. @NIESRorg suggests in latest forecast that bottom living standards of bottom 10% are falling. Reason is that high paid jobs are taken by 'insiders' - esp since 2015 when UC brought in. 'Outsiders' - esp the poor - not getting jobs.

Latest @OBR_UK forecast illustrates both the effect of their uncertainty across different employment estimates - that the big changes until now has been between forecasts (ie due to revisions) rather than within. And their view is, once past current uncertainty, jobs grow.

Looking across all the headline jobs/employment estimates tell as more +ve story than just focusing on RTI/PAYE. Common elements are that jobs are up over 1m on pre pandemic period. [But there may be some sign of weakening in 2nd half of 2025.]

If you want to work with the UN, this opportunity is for you. UNESCO is hiring remote Research Consultants Eligibility: - A Master’s degree or equivalent in Education, Economics, Social Sciences, or a related field - At least two years of relevant research or analytical

It may be called the Post 16 White Paper but there is a gap in the Beveridgean Welfare State for 16 Year Old School-Leavers. A group we used to be good at helping to succeed. But now many are falling into Social Exclusion. Follow the Individual. @Tom_Richmond @nickhillman

@dsmitheconomics You (bravely) identified UK economy was 'turning a corner' in March. A view I share. So a little surprised this assessment seems to suggest it has gone in reverse. Still think we are in the 'green shoots' phase of an economic cycle. And that 2026 might resemble 1994 not 1974.

NISRA will be recruiting Assistant Statisticians in the New Year. Follow our social media channels where full details of the competition will be posted on 5th January 2026.

2025 HAS CONFIRMED ECONOMIC UPSWING HAS BECOME EMBEDDED: [SURPRISINGLY?] Statistics in 2025 have been characterised by revisions & volatility. Which makes it important to try to identify trends. My attempt. @dsmitheconomics @Frencheconomics @RECNeil @GrantFitzner @EconSteveM

@HelenMiller_IFS Approach of raising floor of when start paying tax & ceiling of benefit levels might also provide the next stage of triple lock. And replacement of piecemeal benefit caps with an improved overall benefit cap. eg replicating IT Allowance for Triple Lock - 2 1/2% pa 5 yr review.