Asfandyar Mir
@asfandyarmir
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Senior expert @USIP . South Asia security issues. Opinions my own.
Washington, DC
Joined March 2013
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Pompeo doesn’t even pretend there is a civilian government in Pakistan
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Imran Khan’s wayward speech captures his 3.5 years in office — a buildup to nothing.
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As the Taliban take control of Kabul, I have many stories on the structural drivers of this moment — which certainly pre-date the Biden presidency — but the rapidity of the final collapse is on President Biden.
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How bad is the economic crisis in Pakistan? Here is what I am tracking:
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Tragedy upon tragedy in Kabul. The White House has to answer for this.
Multiple members of the same family, including children, were killed in a US missile strike in Kabul, a relative of those killed tells CNN
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Hi! Can you help me get a visa to reach my father in Qatar? My father, while transiting from Doha on his way to the US, has fallen ill and is now at the Hammad general hospital. 1/n
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Given India makes a massive fuss about (no) parity with Pakistan and third-party mediation, this tweet is a win for Pakistan.
Spoke to my two good friends, Prime Minister Modi of India, and Prime Minister Khan of Pakistan, regarding Trade, Strategic Partnerships and, most importantly, for India and Pakistan to work towards reducing tensions in Kashmir. A tough situation, but good conversations!
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I am really sorry America that you are having “third world problems”, but can we keep various colorful third world places (where some of you served, thank you for your service!) and references to their dysfunction out, and focus on sources of the mess at hand.
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Fwiw, former British diplomat Tim Wallasey-Wilsey says that the one year of Taliban rule has been a “disaster for Pakistan” and Bajwa had “nursed anxieties about a Taliban takeover, but he was opposed by his intelligence chief Faiz Hamid.”
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Reuters quotes senior Pakistan official with “direct knowledge of the country's security decisions” saying that Pakistan plans to send security and intelligence officials to help Taliban reorganize their army:
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.
@AzazSyed
writes from Kabul: “We in Pakistan have over the years been idealising the [Afghan] Taliban…We could not understand that the Taliban are to Afghanistan what the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan are to us.”
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After an attack in Kashmir, there is a developing crisis in South Asia. India appears to be considering military action against Pakistan. Here I explain why the situation is volatile and America‘s awkward position.
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Very worrried about situation b/w India & Pakistan. India has done damage to rep of general Bajwa before his main audience just by reaching Balakot. No spinning can undo that. And NCA meeting signal in presser? Believe it or not but Pak signaling it is bringing nukes into eq.
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I am pleased to share my latest paper, The Terror Threat From Afghanistan Post the Taliban Takeover, in the "Twenty Years After 9/11" special issue of the
@CTCWP
Sentinel.
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A Taliban leader in Doha tells
@Samiyousafzai
: “At the moment the U.S. and Afghan governments have no plan B...Only the Taliban have a plan A and B. Our plan A is a peaceful political solution, and Plan B, definitely a military takeover."
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My deep gratitude to
@HukoomiQatar
for swiftly responding and providing us visas to enter Qatar. Thank you
@MofaQatar_EN
,
@MOI_QatarEn
, &
@QatarEmbassyUSA
. We are on our way to Doha.
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Nawaz Sharif’s speech had two bold historical & foreign policy angles. One, he regretted the framing of Mujib-ur-Rehman as a “traitor” in the 60s, saying that the label pushed Mujib towards hard separatism and contributed to the formation of Bangladesh.
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In a new
@USIP
essay, I examine the politics of Pakistan’s TTP problem after the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan.
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The UN's monitoring team for the Al-Qaeda and ISIS sanctions committee has released its six-monthly report. Some highlights on al-Qaeda, ISIS and Afghanistan issues: 1/n
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Top Pakistan Taliban leaders killed in US drone strikes: Nek Muhammed (June 2004), Baitullah Mehsud (August 2009), Qari Hussain Mehsud (Oct 2010), Wali-ur-Rehman Mehsud (May 2013), Hakimullah Mehsud (Nov 2013), Khalid Mehsud aka Sajna (Feb 2018), Maulvi Fazlullah (June 2018)
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.
@yarotrof
reporting that “Some former members of Afghanistan’s U.S.-trained intelligence service and elite military units…have enlisted in the only force currently challenging the country’s new rulers: Islamic State.”
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Not the ambassador, Chargé d'Affaires. Unfortunately, despite Kabul being one of the most important diplomatic outposts of the US government in recent months, the Biden administration did not nominate an ambassador for Afghanistan.
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.
@HamidMirPAK
reports: “Top Pakistani security officials have approached Afghan Taliban leadership in Doha and made it very clear to them that...if they will not show some flexibility they will face consequences.”
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Delighted to share that
@TamarMitts
,
@pstanpolitics
and my article, “Political Coalitions and Social Media: Evidence from Pakistan,” has been conditionally accepted
@PoPpublicsphere
.
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.
@MarkMazzettiNYT
and
@julianbarnes
report that US and Pakistan are negotiating a base in Pakistan for post-withdrawal counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, according to three US officials. Highlights: 1/n
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In
@nytopinion
, I write about the Islamic State Khorasan, or ISIS-K — and how its competition with the Taliban and other jihadists increases the stakes of the terrorism threat from Afghanistan.
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Re ISI surveillance of civilian political leaders, which Imran Khan is confirming: Here is how Asif Zardari as president handled the surveillance in his office and kind of trolled then ISI chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha.
آئی ایس آئی کو یہ بھی پتا ہے عمران خان کیسی زندگی گزاررہا ہے،عمران خان
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Thank you so much many kind people of the world for your best wishes and for helping/offering to help. I am now speaking to people who are positioned to help with this. Thank you for getting the word out.
Hi! Can you help me get a visa to reach my father in Qatar? My father, while transiting from Doha on his way to the US, has fallen ill and is now at the Hammad general hospital. 1/n
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This is a massive decision by the Pakistan supreme court and a more significant political blow to Imran Khan than a mere vote of no confidence loss would have been. And fact that the "doctrine of necessity" was sidestepped makes it a good day for Pakistan's constitutionalism.
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Wow! “Ambassador Lu speaks and reads Albanian, Russian, Azerbaijani, Georgian, West African Krio, Hindi and Urdu.”
Biden administration nominates Amb. Donald Lu to be Assistant Secretary of State for South & Central Asian Affairs. He is currently amb. to the Kyrgyz Republic, and has served all around S & C Asia, including as DCM in India (that's a file pic of him in 2012 in Delhi)
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The coordinated attacks by the BLA are pretty major, and their complexity will worry the Chinese gov’t the most. Overall, trend lines of both of Pakistan’s insurgency challenges (the TTP and Baloch separatist) are very negative.
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[THREAD] Today, a year since the Indian government's removal of Kashmir's autonomy, I read three important reports on the politics surrounding Kashmir since the Indian government's decision. Some highlights from each. 1/n
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Eyewitnesses tell BBC that many civilians were killed by US forces firing in panic after the blast at the Kabul airport. At least 170 civilians killed at the airport...
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Here
@Gary__Bass
reveals Nixon‘s deep racism towards Indians with newly declassified tapes from 1971. It is so vile it is unbelievable.
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AP reporting that Biden admin “officials now believe terror groups like al-Qaida may be able to grow much faster than expected, according to the person, who had direct knowledge of the briefing [to Senators on situation in Afghanistan].”
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In April Pakistan carried out airstrikes in Afghanistan to target the TTP but killed civilians. In a
@USIP
piece I examine the lead-up to & aftermath of the airstrikes, Taliban’s calculus on the TTP, Islamabad’s policy response and implications for the US.
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Thread on some pieces on US policy towards Pakistan, issues that will be in focus in the Biden era: 1/n
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Is the TTP resurging? Some angles on the trajectory and internal politics of the TTP. 1/n
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This makes Pakistan the first country since the Taliban’s August takeover to publicly charge that Afghan territory is being used for cross-border/int’l terrorism.
Pakistan's patience with the interim Afghan government seems to be running thin as for the first time it publically condemned the use of Afghan soil against it since the Taliban takeover after five of its troops lost their lives in cross border attack.
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[Thread] Tomorrow President Biden will meet Afghan President Ashraf Ghani & Chairman HCNR Dr Abdullah Abdullah at the White House amid a worsening situation in Afghanistan. So I want to assess Biden admin's Afghanistan policy, what it is trying to do, and its efficacy. 1/n
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[Thread] I’m very pleased to share my latest report, “Afghanistan’s Terrorism Challenge: The Political Trajectories of al-Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, and the Islamic State,” published by the
@MiddleEastInst
. 1/10
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I have a new piece out on Taliban-al-Qaeda ties for
@WarInstitute
:
Untying the Gordian Knot: Why the Taliban is Unlikely to Break Ties with Al-Qaeda |
@asfandyarmir
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I have an article in the fall issue of
@Journal_IS
on counterterrorism in safe havens/weak states. The article provides evidence from the US Drone War in Pakistan.
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Dawn’s Zafar Abbas: “This is somehow far more suffocating than martial law”
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Dylan Moore & I have an article now forthcoming in
@ISQ_Jrnl
on the impact of the US drone program on insurgent violence in Pakistan. Full paper here:
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ISIS claims responsibility for the complex attack on the Daoud Khan military hospital in Kabul which killed Taliban’s military chief for Kabul Qari Hamdullah. This is a major attack.
#Afghanistan
l’
#EI
revendique l’attaque de l’hôpital militaire Saradar Mohammad Daoud Khan
#Kaboul
une attaque complexe avec 5 jihadistes, dont un kamikaze qui a ouvert la route puis une voiture piégée activée au passage des renforts
#Taliban
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Despite being hunted by the US since the 90s, the chief of al-Qaida Ayman al-Zawahiri remains at large. In this post, I ask: Where is Ayman al-Zawahiri?
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.
@IKPeshawar
confirms Pakistan and the TTP have been in peace talks in Khost, Afghanistan last two weeks; talks mediated by Siraj Haqqani, ceasefire announcement conditional on the release of TTP prisoners.
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Some thoughts on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's Iran-al-Qaida nexus speech: 1/n
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Nawaz Sharif takes it a notch up. In his last few speeches, he indirectly stated the problem was army chief Bajwa and ISI head Faiz. Today, in a blistering speech on military meddling to prop Imran Khan government, he directly names the duo — for the first time.
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The US conspiracy talk by Imran Khan is a diversion. Real question is what happened to the so-called “same page” — why Bajwa & Khan fell apart? Bajwa’s statement today, in backdrop of the domestic political drama, suggests foreign policy differences are a major reason.
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ISPR chief: “Today’s Afghanistan is not the country it was in the nineties, whose state structure collapsed easily. Pakistan has also changed. It is not possible for Taliban to takeover Kabul & for Pakistan to support them. That will never happen.”
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New prime minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif is one of the most experienced administrative hands to rise to the highest office in Pakistan. He has long believed a prime minister can out-govern country’s civ-mil imbalance among other structural issues. Here is his test.
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According to US officials, the chief of al-Qaida Ayman al-Zawahiri has been killed in a strike in Kabul, Afghanistan.
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Lots of very odd tweets out there today. Chevron calling for peaceful transition of power is top 5.
We call for the peaceful transition of the U.S. government. The violence in Washington, D.C. tarnishes a two-century tradition of respect for the rule of law. We look forward to engaging with President-Elect Biden and his administration to move the nation forward.
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In
@ForeignAffairs
,
@tricbacon
and I examine an unusual diplomatic breakthrough for the Taliban: A thaw with India. We outline why it is a major shift for both, their logics of engagement, and implications for India and its partners—in particular the US.
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Among the main near-term foreign policy decisions facing the Biden admin after Jan 20 is what to do about Afghanistan (). This thread summarizes policy proposals I am coming across for the admin: 1/n
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My rule is that if Devesh Kapur is saying it is bad, it must be really bad.
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After more than two dozen attacks by the TTP killing Pakistani security forces as part of its offensive launched in April, Pakistan seems to have retaliated by carrying out cross-border air strikes in Afghanistan.
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Pakistan's security trendlines in 2022:
-TTP violence growing, inflicting serious damage on security forces.
-Baluch separatists hitting cities in suicide attacks & military targets in complex attacks.
-ISIS-K able to execute mass casualty attacks against vulnerable civilians.
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My latest on Pakistan-Taliban tensions:
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Here is the Taliban chief Mullah Akhtar Mansoor’s 2015 acceptance of al-Qaeda chief Zawahiri’s baya, which is still available on the Taliban’s own website:
This is huge.
@suhailshaheen1
Taliban spokesman, tells
@akhbar
: "There is no bay'a" NO pledge of allegiance between Al-Qaeda & Taliban.
We know Zawahiri pledged allegiance to Akhundzada. Was understood that Taliban didn't "wish" to acknowledge that publicly. Well, there you go.
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I have a piece out in
@PVGlance
on President Biden's Afghanistan decision. In the piece, instead of trying to answer what Biden should do, I turn to the IR literature to identify factors that will exert influence on and shape his decision. 1/7
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Here I explain why India and Pakistan saw escalation to a risky military exchange, factors that prevented further escalation, and the risks that threaten a return to conflict.
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In addition, admin has been deflecting on the humanitarian crisis and what this transition will do to Afghans. There is also the reality that the admin has struggled to get Afghans who helped the US out; and now, remaining US civilian personnel in AFG are at high risk.
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In the last 8 months, the admin failed to restrain the Taliban diplomatically, manage what everyone knew was a highly-dependent and dysfunctional Afghan republic, clarify Taliban compliance with CT terms, create a quasi-coherent military transition, & coordinate the region.
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🚨 We
@USIP
are expanding our South Asia research and program portfolio and have two new openings: 1) Senior Expert South Asia, focused on India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal: 2) Program Officer South Asia: . Consider applying!
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The message I am seeing from the admin is that 1) Feb 2020 US-Taliban Doha deal locked the admin on an irreversible path 2) only alternative was staying. This framing is not right. As I see, the admin made lot of choices beyond the withdrawal, which exacerbated the deterioration.
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.
@jessdonati
and
@margheritamvs
report Biden admin has decided it won’t release any of the $7 billion in foreign assets and suspended talks with Taliban over the funds after Zawahiri’s killing in Kabul, per US officials.
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Pakistani leaders, in particular generals Bajwa and Hamid — who have been advocating concessions to the TTP, should carefully read this letter. It makes clear TTP wants total political change in Pakistan on their terms, not assurances to demobilize or power-sharing.
په هغه لیک کې چې کابل نیوز ترلاسه کړی او TTP ته منسوب دی او کابل ته د ورغلو پاکستانی علماو ته لیکل شوی، لومړی له ا.ا څخه پکې مننه شوې چې دوی ته یې ددوی له استادانو (پاکستانی علماو) سره د ملاقات زمینه برابره کړه.
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NBC reporting Biden likely to green light extending Afghanistan stay till November: "President Joe Biden is considering keeping U.S. troops in Afghanistan until November, rather than withdrawing them by a May 1 deadline."
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Pakistan and the TTP are talking once again. In a new
@USIP
piece I examine five factors that will determine the trajectory of the talks.
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President Biden says al-Qaeda in Afghanistan is gone 🤔
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Today US embassy Islamabad put out a statement on Khalilzad's trip on Afghan peace. Notable: 1) For the third time, Khalilzad met only Bajwa, not Khan, Qureshi 2) "expressed his appreciation...for the [role of] General Bajwa [for] peace in Afghanistan"
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The fourth option was to re-think
the policy of supporting the Taliban unconditionally over the last many years and be more clear-eyed on what the rise of the Taliban will do to the TTP instead of spinning lies as Yusuf et al did over last few years.
Pakistan had 3 options w/the TTP problem: 1. Press the Taliban to curb/expel it from Afg. 2. Talks w/TTP 3. Military ops in Afg.
Option 1 was never realistic. Option 2 has failed. Hence the 3rd option, which has been used in the past and will deepen festering tensions w/Taliban.
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Today is a devastating day for many Afghans — who have a very tough road ahead. Less important in many ways but worth noting that it is also a terrible day for America, which got it so wrong from the start to finish of this long war.
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On this day 10 years ago:
A huge window shaking bang here in Abbottabad Cantt. I hope its not the start of something nasty :-S
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Three things which stood out in this story on China-Pak ties based on a “new U.S. intelligence assessment”:
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-Not having the country overrun by the insurgency before withdrawal is complete
-Not undertaking a rushed and embarrassing evacuation of the embassy, which puts own personnel at risk
-Ordinary civilians not clinging to, falling off the military aircraft of the withdrawing army
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Question: would you support sanctions against the Taliban? Biden: depends on the conduct of the Taliban.
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Re Bajwa speech: The following is the relatively more important bit, to an extent more important than his "bury the past" olive branch to India. I want to unpack this, take stock of where things are at based on publicly available information. 1/n
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Amid Taliban’s rapid military advance, US officials tell
@ckubeNBC
that a “Taliban government in Afghanistan would not stop Al Qaeda from rebuilding and that it will eventually work toward attacks on foreign soil again.”
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Senior TTP leader killed in a US drone strike in Kunar, Afghanistan. I have an unconfirmed report that this was TTP chief Maulvi Fazlullah.
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President Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan extricates US troops from a complex war but does little to alleviate it. Here I look at risks to US personnel on exit, Afghan forces & civilians, challenges to diplomacy, and the al-Qaeda question.
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The US is likely to sign a peace deal with the Afghan Taliban. Here I examine how we got here, why next steps of the peace process will be hard, and what the US can do to prevent a civil war in and international terrorism from Afghanistan.
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Devastating terror attack in Kabul. Lost for words on this atrocity.
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In a new piece for
@gwupoe
, I examine al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, Taliban’s calculus and the future of US counterterrorism after the US drone strike killing al-Qaeda chief Zawahiri in Kabul.
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For now, contrary to the claims of President Biden, there is no indication the US government has a nominally credible over-the-horizon counterterrorism capability for Afghanistan.
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I am tracking the apparent US military raid in Idlib, Syria. To the extent I can tell, it was a pretty major operation, has gone wrong, and appears to have been aimed against al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate leadership.
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Dear friend & colleague
@abdsayedd
is a diligent researcher with encyclopedic knowledge on all jihadism issues in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Here he provides context to the tragedy in Kabul today. Follow him, listen to what he has to say carefully, ask him questions:
I don’t know when I will be able to write a piece on heartbreaking developments in Kabul but meantime, a thread on Islamic State Khurasan Province as I am seeing both interest and confusion about the group. 1/n
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