citizen kane
@adpyr
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Prev hf quant. Mostly shits and giggles.
Joined June 2025
Many outsiders who haven't worked in a hedge fund have troubles understanding how to go from thesis to trade. Here's the logic from my experience working closely with PMs. Your decision can be generally based on two types of variables. (1) Directional, which determines what
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WHY EVERYTHING IS GAMBLING NOW In today’s New York Times piece, I wrote about how everything from AI investment, memecoins, tariffs, healthcare, debt-roulette apps have turned the US economy into a casino.
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This observation should be able to inform a smarter conditional token framework on prediction markets
Another way to visualize that a correlation of .95 is closer to 0 than to 1: Consider the ratio of 2 correlated Gaussian variables. [We get similar, less extreme results with the differences: X-Y has only ½ the volatility when the correlation is .85);
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Please block me if you find yourself on the list: - Technical indicator writer -> “Check out my mean reversion strategy on Substack” - LLM trader -> “I made AI models trade real money, Grok4 is up >300%” - Option seller -> “Earn 10k/week at 90% win rate by selling cash secured
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the worst thing to happen to tech started with uber and airbnb when the industry learned to ask for forgiveness rather than permission, what we might call regulatory arbitrage. specifically, the startup industry learned to arbitrage the gap between the legality of an act and the
a16z-backed DoubleSpeed lets you control 1000s of social media accounts with AI, ensuring they look as human as possible - "never pay a human again"!
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From friend - current US in late Qing malaise Flooded with opioids Closed to foreign trade Navy rotten to the core Government in paralysis Misuse of military funding Governors ignoring central orders Throwing birthday parties for the emperor Fixing up imperial gardens
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I Bought $250,000 Worth of Toilet Paper No, that’s not a typo. That’s roughly 200,000 premium 3-ply rolls, a warehouse of softness stacked from floor to ceiling. An asset the consumer market literally can’t print fast enough when panic hits. Most people would call it insanity.
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@iamwillcannon An easy way to gain influence: • Teach men about mental clarity • Teach women they don't need expensive products • Teach parents that they need to inspire • Teach kids how to accomplish their dreams • Teach the rich to learn self-defense • Teach the broke how to get rich
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There's a paradoxical effect where competitive people who can't seem to win at positive-sum games attempt to turn everything into a zero-sum game.
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Quick breakdown of the projects Fin Inclusion/Payments • Bloccpay: Instant global payroll for remote teams • Cryptomate: Low-code fintech for localized payments • GENGHIS LTD: Web3 e-commerce with multi-chain buys • Kwikpik: Africa's on-demand services marketplace •
winks.fun
Winks.fun creates micro-apps that enable one-click on-chain actions within Twitter/X and other native social media feeds.
We are happy to share the faces of the next generation of web3 and blockchain rockstars as part of our 2025 Techstars + Cardano Founder Catalyst program cohort! 20 companies hailing from 16 different countries across the globe with support from Project Catalyst kicked off
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day 3 of asking @ianbremmer to bet on polymarket
day 2 of asking @ianbremmer to bet on polymarket
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day 2 of asking @ianbremmer to bet on polymarket
day 1 of asking @ianbremmer to bet on polymarket
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day 1 of asking @ianbremmer to bet on polymarket
When you meet a World's Foremost Expert On Everything, ask them to bet on their claims. If they never take a bet, you know you're dealing with the real article.
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I hate being the technical analysis guy, but if this isn't a #bitcoin trend breakthrough, I don't know what is http://t.co/TKh46WT901
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