Uzair Younus عُزیر یُونس
@UzairYounus
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Principal @theasiagroup ;; Host of @pakistonomy ; Commenting on Geopolitics and Political Econ; RTs aren’t endorsements.
Washington, DC
Joined June 2011
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Pinned Tweet
This season, I’ll be running a thread of books recommended by guests in
@tabadlab
Pakistonomy.
@hasaankhawar
recommended the following:
1) The 5 AM Club by Robin Sharma
2) Sapiens by Yuval Noah Hariri
3) Directorate S by Steve Coll
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“Who is that one man?” asks the brilliant
@SarahzTV
.
@ImranKhanPTI
replies: “The army chief.”
With this, Khan has now clearly stated that after Bajwa, even General Munir is out to get him.
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What an amazing moment!
Truly remarkable achievement by 🇮🇳 and something that will inspire millions of children over the next few decades.
Everyone involved in this project deserves the highest recognition.
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Perhaps this will prove to be a reality check and a wake up call for the delusional thinkers in ISB + PINDI about what the regional powers are trying to achieve and how they see 🇮🇳 and 🇵🇰.
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Remittances are for your families and loved ones. It pays for Nani-amma’s nurse and Ayesha’s birthday gift!
If you want to make your own loved ones experience pain, go right ahead!
“No Imran, No remittances” PTI supporters protest against “regime change” at Hyde Park, they say “we won’t send any remittances until Imran Khan comes back.
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Just discovered that
@PTIofficial
has hired a lobbying firm in DC at a cost of $25,000 per month.
As per documents filed on August 9, the party has engaged Fenton/Arlock LLC to support PTI's "goals for good relations with the United States and the Pakistani diaspora in the US."
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PTI jalsas are a solid product-market fit.
Music. Religion. Conspiracy. Nationalism.
All in one spot.
Can folks want more?
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“A retired judge gets around Rs1 million a month in pension, in addition to 2,000 free electricity units, 300 litres of free petrol and free phone calls worth Rs3,000…150,000 official vehicles are filled with free petrol.”
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At a time when the entire parliament bowed down in submission to the guardians of the fortress, Arif Alvi has at least showed some spine.
He has tried to stall two draconian pieces of legislation.
In an era where most have surrendered, Alvi deserves much credit here.
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There are no winners here.
The only loser is 🇵🇰 and its democracy.
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بات اگر ڈائری تک آگئی ہے تو پھر خان صاحب کو ہی آنے دیں، کیونکہ آپ سے نہیں ہو پا رہا استاد!
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Spoke to
@BBCWorld
about the latest events in 🇵🇰 highlighting that it is critical for the international community to clearly signal its support for constitutional and democratic rule in the country.
Watch first part👇🏽
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Writing from jail,
@ImranKhanPTI
says “the establishment—the army, security agencies and the civil bureaucracy—is not prepared to provide any playing field at all, let alone a level one, for PTI.”
Also says that he was ousted due to 🇺🇸 pressure.
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So the Bajwa Doctrine stands dead and buried.
Punjab’s voters signaling loud and clear that the historical machinations will no longer be tolerated.
Kudos to
@PTIofficial
and its leadership, especially
@ImranKhanPTI
, for what is turning out to be an epic win.
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If army chiefs want to meet business leaders to talk economy, perhaps it is time for political leaders to begin meeting security analysts to talk about tank and artillery warfare.
Perhaps a conversation led by senators (without any serving or retired officers) is merited.
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Spoke to
@BBCWorld
today about
@ImranKhanPTI
’s arrest and what is likely to come next for 🇵🇰.
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What does censorship look like?
See below for a case in point.
@Kashifabbasiary
was asking me about how to fix the taxation issues in 🇵🇰 and I talked of handouts given to big business, feudal elites, and Military Inc — the last bit was muted out on TV.
🙊🙉🙈
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Pettiness is having an entire segment on the 1992 WC win without showing a single picture of the man who led the team to glory.
Shameful by
@TheRealPCB
!
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If your idea of preventing a party from gaining traction involves throttling the internet to prevent access to livestreams, then you’ve lost the plot.
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Khan’s arrest is just one more piece of evidence in a long volume of where power resides and who wields it in 🇵🇰.
For decades, civilians that have dared to stand up to the Empire have met a similar fate — many have been killed in the process.
We can only pray for Khan’s safety.
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Advice to my friends in Pakistan: adjust your spending immediately and cut back on non-essential items.
If you’re going to fill up petrol, pocket an additional Rs. 100 per liter and add it to your “fuel fund.”
The next few months will be painful. Best to prepare in advance.
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We warned.
We screamed.
We pushed back.
But at that time, many believed that the fall of Kabul to the Taliban was good news.
The ongoing terror attack in Karachi was entirely predictable.
Many in power still see the Taliban as friends and brothers.
It’ll get much worse.
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Key highlights from the budget:
- Military pensions +26%
- Civilian pensions +16%
- Defence budget +14%
- New IMF loans – $2.4bn
- $6bn in commercial loans + Eurobonds
- 80% of revenues will go towards mark-up payments
- Direct taxes +31%
- Indirect taxes +25%
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THREAD: PM Imran Khan and PTI leaders have been railing against the PML-N for leaving Pakistan in a debt-trap. But are they telling the truth? I looked at the data, and my conclusion is that the PML-N has left Pakistan in a debt-trap, and its borrowing policy has been disastrous
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The Reko Diq settlement is a major development.
Khan and his team did a great job resolving the issue.
Good on the PM to mention it.
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Turns out that a Barelvi fatwa helped the British recruit Muslims in Punjab fight the Ottomans.
The leader of the Barelvi sect argued that because Ottomans were not from the Quraysh, they couldn’t be caliphs.
And so the sons of Punjab joined the British war effort in earnest.
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One man’s ego and belief in cuckoonomics brought the economy to the brink.
The unwinding of the Dar Peg will inflict unimaginable trauma on ordinary citizens; it’ll be exponentially costlier than Khan’s petrol subsidy!
Dar must resign and never again be made finance minister.
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Reminder that Karachi’s “elected” mayor was unable to get a single vote from the citizens of Karachi.
To help him win, his party amended the law to help him become mayor despite not being elected to any council.
Democracy is indeed the best revenge.
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This is what a digital payments revolution looks like.
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Over 75 years of history in Pakistan, two facts remain undeniable:
1. Center of gravity lies in Rawalpindi
2. Every single experiement, militant and non-militant, has ended with assets going rogue
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“PTI borrowed $12.7billion in last 9 months of its tenure , 70% of which went towards paying government expenditures and not paying off interest and principal on previous loans.”
DMKM dives into the PTI’s lies.
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I finally had the honor & privilege to visit my ancestral memon home in Bantva and Ghed Bagasra in Indian Gujarat.
What I experienced was surreal and what was unforgettable was the warmth of locals who I met while walking around.
🧵 on Memons, Gujarat, and protecting heritage.
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BJP’s success lies in pushing common sense economic reforms, digitizing and scaling direct benefit transfers, and shaking up the rent-seeking status quo even when it hurt near-term political capital, such as by pushing GST reforms.
A key cohort of the BJP are rural, poor voters.
IK phenomenon is middle & educated classes & youth rebellion against traditional politics in which older parties are very strongly entrenched in their traditional power bases with no meaningful space for them. The challenge for older parties is to align their politics with the
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The IMF report on Pakistan is out and its has some interesting pointers on where things are and where they are headed.
Some key points in the 🧵.
TLDR -- Pakistan's economy expected to be in flux for the next 2-3 years, at least, and faces significant risks.
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Munir Doctrine: where the army chief and his institution will now play a formal, direct role in facilitating foreign investment into the country.
Salute to all the geniuses who came up with this idea!
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This is heinous, outrageous, and condemnable.
Even worse, I don’t recall seeing any coverage over this act in mainstream media.
It was only through the comments of Indian viewers on my podcast that I realized this had happened in Karachi.
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Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall;
All the king's horses and all the king's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again.
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This is a seriously good development and kudos for
@ImranKhanPTI
and his team for pursuing normalization of ties with Bangladesh. There is still a long, long way to go. But Pakistan must make a dedicated effort to engage with Bangladesh and reset ties.
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When history is written about the tenure of the current parliament in 🇵🇰, it would be apt to title the chapter as:
The Parliament that Murdered Democracy.
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Sickening. Heinous. Inhumane. Criminal.
“They tied my feet and hung me upside down…They were beating with sticks and punches and kicking me…They called my family and threatened them and told me that they would pick up my children…”
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Dawn surrenders…a dark, dark day for the media organization and the broader media ecosystem in 🇵🇰
Dawn News is airing the interview of PTI leader Sadaqat Abbasi, the former MNA who returned home a few days ago after being 'missing'. Abbasi says he stayed at a friend's home for a month and then went to Gilgit.
The former lawmaker blamed Imran Khan for May 9 violence.
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“Long known for its interminable, rattling train journeys, snarled roads and grotty airports, the country is experiencing an infrastructural makeover on a scale unprecedented outside China.”
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There is nothing wrong with saying I don’t know.
In fact, it is a valuable trait in a minister because if you claim to know everything, then you don’t seek advice and inputs.
I’ve interacted with ministers who make up facts just to sound smart. And that’s a terrible quality.
I dont about FinTech and Web 3.0 😬
@motasim
@rogueonomist
@AzamAKhan2
@AribaShahid
@UzairYounus
@Sabbandkardo
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The city of Pune raises more in property taxes than the entire province of Sindh.
The rich have stashed away their wealth in unproductive real estate for decades.
They’ve received amnesties to do so.
If a govt wants to provide “relief” to ordinary citizens, tax the rich!
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In context of the Indian philosophy and tradition, " Al-Issa said, "I salute Indian democracy with the bottom of my heart. I salute the Constitution of India. I salute the Indian philosophy and tradition that taught harmony to the world."
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Big big news from my end.
Moving to 🇵🇰 to join the economic advisory council. Hoping to bring fresh, out of the box ideas to economic policy making in order to help meet the aspirations of the Khan govt.
Was a big personal and professional decision but I think the time is now.
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All this talk of replacing
@MiftahIsmail
shows three things about 🇵🇰 politics:
1) Elites don’t like a sane person running the Econ
2) Someone who makes decisions based on logic, not on what leaders want, isn’t tolerated
3) Karachi boys always get the short end of the stick.
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🚨🚨🚨 Breaking news: there are no qualified civilians doctors in Pakistan capable of running a hospital.
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Speeches are easy. Especially from the comfort of London.
You know what’s hard?
Whipping up your votes to block the COAS’ extension
Promoting internal democracy in your party
Pushing meaningful reform when in power
MNS talked a big game but is incapable of walking the talk
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Reminder: educated people who don’t tend to vote for “qeemay walay naan” voted in droves for Aamir Liaquat Hussain.
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Tragic to see the party that helped birth 🇵🇰’s constitution drive a bulldozer over it.
Free and fair elections at the grassroots level are the essence of democracy.
And what PPP has done to steal the democratic rights of the people of Sindh is heinous.
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GDP per capita:
California = ~$80,000
Pakistan = ~$1200
1 Gallon = 3.875 litres; price per Gallon in California $5.299/Gallon or $1.4/litre or 1$ = 170 rupees. So price/litre ($1.4X170) = Rs238/litre in California!
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PMLN forced into elections while having to unwind Dar Peg which will unleash new upwards price adjustment to get IMF back on track will likely be the death knell for the party.
For a party that imposed Dar on 🇵🇰, the collapse of its political capital will be a fair outcome.
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At its core the issue is that Pakistani elites are happy being sharks in small ponds.
They don’t have the hunger to elbow in at the big boys’ table. Bangladeshi & Indian elites do.
Pakistani elites are content with a luxurious life at home with some assets abroad.
That’s it.
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If elections are delayed today, they WILL be delayed tomorrow.
Today's events are akin to Caesar crossing the Rubicon.
If they are not forced to retreat, they will do away with whatever democracy is left in 🇵🇰.
And what comes next will be repression beyond one's imagination.
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Watching Fox and making conclusions about US policy is akin to the US watching Zaid Hamid and some “defence analysts” on random Pak channels to make conclusions about Pakistan’s policies towards the West…
Need more proof of US regime change conspiracy against elected PM IK for not kowtowing before US demands? Admission by US National Security & Defense analyst Dr Rebecca Grant that US had a role in ousting Imran Khan thru VoNC. #امپورٹڈ__حکومت__نامنظور
@OfficialDGISPR
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The entirety of the economic crisis 🇵🇰 has faced since 2018 can be singularly traced back to Dar.
That he still retains influence and is about to make a comeback as finance minister shows that the PMLN’s leadership has not learnt anything from history.
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PPP should introduce an amendment in the National Assembly to allow election of a PM who hasn’t won a National Assembly seat!
That will be as democratic of an act as its amendments to local bodies polls that helped Murtaza Wahab become mayor.
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If the govt doesn't immediately act to end the subsidies and get IMF program back on track, Pakistan has 4-6 weeks before doomsday scenario kicks in.
If you are in Pakistan, my advice is to actively prepare for that outcome.
How?
1. Stock up on essentials.
2. Dump the PKR.
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In normal countries, this in and of itself is a fireable offense.
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar got angry and physically pushed a reporter in parliament's parking when he asked the minister about his failure to seal the IMF deal.
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Based on our rough assessments, we calculate that the direct damages to roads, homes, livestock, and crops is over $3bn:
Homes -$2,000m
Crops - $550m
Roads - $300m
Livestock - $200m
This is an early assessment based on public data. As more data comes, we will update this.
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Continue to maintain that this is the most serious crisis to cohesion since 1971.
As it currently stands, the Islamic Republic is financially, politically, and institutionally unviable.
The entire state structure is collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.
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Sri Lanka has its own set of radicals who are targeting Muslims.
By lynching a Sri Lankan man, Muslim radicals have created space for non-Muslim radicals in Sri Lanka to target Muslims.
This is how radicalism feeds off itself, fueling violence and hate across the world.
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The $6 trillion figure is BOGUS!
Pakistan has huge mineral reservoirs worth over 6 trillion dollars. On 1st August “Pakistan Minerals Summit - Dust to Development*” is being organised in Islamabad, top investors & mineral experts are coming to tap this true potential which can turn around Pakistan economic woes.
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🇧🇩 has almost $40bn in reserves which are about 4-5 months of import cover.
But its policymakers know things aren’t looking great.
So what do they do?
Start curbing energy demand.
Proactively prepare for a soft landing.
Get in the IMF line.
This is how adults behave.
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This is the leader of a party that was on the receiving end of the blasphemy stick a few years ago.
But blinded by their hate of Khan, they’re now igniting a dangerous fire that is likely to lead to even more radicalization and violence in 🇵🇰.
Sickening. Heinous. Condemnable.
کتنے تعجب کی بات ہے کہ اپنی نمائندگی کرنے کے لیے عمران خان نے اسی وکیل کا انتخاب کیا جس نے ملعون سلمان رشدی کا مقدمہ لڑا تھا۔ یہی عمران خان کا دوہرا چہرہ ہے۔ پاکستان میں ریاست مدینہ کے جھوٹے دعوے اور باہر کی دنیا میں اسلام مخالف لابی سے مدد کی اپیل۔
سلمان رشدی دنیا بھر
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From 2000-21, there ‘s been 9X growth in 🇮🇳’s exports to 🇸🇦 v. 3x for 🇵🇰 in the same period.
But more importantly, 🇮🇳 has dramatically diversified its exports to the Kingdom during this period.
This is a core reason why the 🇮🇳🇸🇦 relationship is going to the next level.
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The control over information has reached a level where media in 🇵🇰 is being prevented to cover protests against electricity bills and the inflation crisis.
The message is to tone it down; no top story or live coverage.
Pretending the problem doesn’t exist won’t solve it folks!
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A major shift is happening in global capital flows.
By the middle of this decade one can safely say that 🇮🇳 will consistently outpace 🇨🇳 when it comes to inbound FDI.
🇲🇽 is the other jurisdiction seeing a spike.
These shifts will dramatically alter global supply chains soon.
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Took a tour of parts of Karachi, from Clifton to Dhoraji and back via Korangi.
The city’s infrastructure is in ruins.
Raw sewage.
Potholes.
Broken traffic lights.
Regardless of who manages what areas, the city is in a state of crisis.
Absolutely no ownership.
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Dar is proud to be dealing with the IMF for 25 years.
Pakistan’s median age is 24.
So basically half of 🇵🇰 wasn’t born when Dar first dealt with IMF.
And he’s still dealing with them.
Is that something to be proud of?
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Yet another minister said that “we as a nation do not pay taxes.”
It is infuriating to hear this.
EVERY PAKISTANI IS A TAXPAYER.
Issue: elites do not pay a fair share.
You don’t need big data or AI.
Just go see the homes of legislators and compare it with their tax returns.
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Pakistani friends seem to be receiving
@narendramodi
’s Viksit Bharat Sampark WhatsApp message, both in 🇵🇰 and in 🇦🇪.
Modi Ji seems more eager to poll Pakistanis for their opinions that Pakistani ruling elites themselves!
🤣🫢🤣🫢
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THREAD: The
#Pakistan
govt. has had the view that if we lockdown the country, millions of vulnerable people will be at risk of dying from hunger etc. This perspective, in my view, rests on flawed logic.
Allow me to elaborate.
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Amazing to see
@junaidakram83
and
@MuzzammilAslam3
interview
@ImranKhanPTI
.
Podcasting is very nascent in 🇵🇰.
A former prime minister giving a podcast interview is a historic event.
This conversation is also important because it reveals Khan's political problem.
🧵below
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Inflation at a red hot 38%
Food inflation at almost 49%
Bye-bye to IMF (?)
Base effect and PKR appreciating may create an illusion that things are improve over the next 6-8 weeks, but do not be fooled by this.
By monsoon, economy will be in an even weaker position.
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The elite obsession of a strong PKR makes sense if you understand 🇵🇰 elites.
They extract wealth from their homeland and siphon it abroad.
When this is the goal, a weak currency means extracted PKR can’t fetch foreign assets cheaply.
That’s why they all love a strong PKR.
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You can simultaneously be in awe of the soldiers serving 🇵🇰, conducting extremely dangerous missions like today’s rescue operation, while at the same time openly criticizing the institution’s meddling in politics.
These soldiers are heroes & deserve our utmost praise & respect!
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Narendra Modi made two bets on exploring peace with 🇵🇰.
First with Nawaz, then with Bajwa.
On both occasions, intrigue in the power corridors of Islamabad and Pindi prevented progress.
Unfortunate and tragic.
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Here my views diverge significantly from
@mosharrafzaidi
Modi reached out to 🇵🇰, despite great opposition within the rank and file of the BJP ecosystem
We know wht hpnd after
🇵🇰 stopped trade not 🇮🇳
Trying to normalize relations is not surrender
It is common sense policy
Other than the economy, Nawaz Sharif’s most consistent policy commitment for almost three decades has been to establish normalisation with India.
This is why Ishaq Dar—Nawaz Sharif’s most trusted friend, advisor and lieutenant—has been assigned the Foreign Ministry.
This was
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Ms. Marvel did for Pakistan what decades of state-led push for “positive” coverage couldn’t.
Lesson?
Celebrating art matters.
Enabling expression matters.
Investment in art matters.
Empowering artists matters.
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Have to say:
@MiftahIsmail
pulled off what
@Asad_Umar
couldn’t.
The former brought the IMF agreement on track while beating back the internal party insurgency against him.
The latter was unceremoniously fired after he failed to negotiate with the IMF in due course.
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Targeting your political opponents with blasphemy charges shows that you’ve run out of options.
The accusations being leveled against
@MiftahIsmail
are downright false and dangerous.
Political elites must stop fanning these flames immediately.
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IMF ne aankhon mein aankhein daal k Dar ko keh dia:
ABSOLUTELY NOT!
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Jhagra sb. going to an iftar in Peshawar.
1. I was invited to a private iftar with what I was told would be a few close friends. I was neither aware of the number of people who ended up being there, nor the location, until I reached. I understand the hurt and anger caused.
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Had an amazing time in Bombay.
3 things stood out to me as someone who grew up in Khi:
- the city is quite walkable and offers plenty of sidewalks
- areas we visited felt very safe, especially for women
- the infra is great and the city is clean and well-maintained
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A year ago, when I joined the
@AtlanticCouncil
as Director of the Pakistan Initiative, our goal was to move away from narrow conversations focused on terrorism and radicalism in Pakistan.
We concluded our year by hosting 🇵🇰’s foreign minister
@BBhuttoZardari
.
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This is what being intellectually dishonest sounds like.
The petrol price increase is a tough but correct choice.
The alternative was to take the country towards default, and that is a scenario no one should move towards.
Nation starting to pay price for Imported govt's subservience before foreign masters with 20% / Rs30 per litre hike in petrol & diesel prices - the highest single price hike in our history.The incompetent & insensitive Govt has not pursued our deal with Russia for 30% cheaper oil
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The Toshakhana records just show how those in power, or close to it, have enriched themselves from gifts given to the country.
Fawad Hasan Fawad retained gifts worth Rs. 12,934,040 for Rs. 2,584,608.
Fawad Chauhdry retained gifts worth Rs. 3,461,000 for Rs. 686,200.
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If this was a video from <insert your Global South country> the western press would publish essays and articles about democratic backsliding / authoritarianism / lack of civil rights in an “increasingly illiberal country.”
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In a single generation, 🇮🇳 has significantly altered its strategic posture.
By 1991, its economy was in tatters. Its strategic partner no longer existed. And its partner’s military hardware was wiped away by 🇺🇸 military might in the First Gulf War.
From there began a pivot.
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The shock, anger, and sadness of leaving the revolution didn’t stop him from signing and dancing to earn a good paycheck….
Abrarul Haq performs in london after quitting PTI, concert powered by Aleem Khan’s housing society
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An Apple I-Phone Xs, Gold, 256 GB Model
(A2097) was gifted to Brig. Atif Mujtaba in Feb 2020.
The assessed value of the phone was Rs. 100,000 and the recipient paid Rs. 35,000 to retain the phone.'
The launch price of this model was $1,149...
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Dar did hanky panky to the PKR to deliver a 5 rupee cut to petrol.
Not a coincidence that PKR falls soon after petrol decision is made.
And now there’s more panic as the PKR slides, all because one man continues to believe in cuckoonomics!
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Petrol in Bombay is 106 INR per liter which translates into ~335 PKR per liter.
India’s economy is doing well but its govt. charges more for fuel than 🇵🇰.
Oh and there’s market pricing, so a few days ago petrol was ~112 per liter.
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