Tom Kloza
@TomKloza
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Dean of U.S. oil analysts, foremost expert on North American fuel markets, a founder of Oil Price Information Service
Wall, NJ
Joined October 2013
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Had to say good-bye today to my faithful companion and it really sucks. Greatest injustice in life is the mismatched life spans of man & dog. Farewell, Zoe.
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Personal note: Tomorrow, I begin my 45th year as an oil reporter/analyst. That's approximately 16,070 days for the same "professional" job, most of which have been rewarding. I hope to make it to 50 years, at the very least, since the industry is more dynamic than it was in 1975.
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Expect retail prices for diesel to increase to $5.25-$5.50/gal nationwide next week. In a week with wild wholesale increases, OPIS sees diesel surge of 40cts/gal in Northeast; 26cts/gal at Gulf Coast; 15-16cts/gal in Midwest and West Coast. More freight surcharges loom.
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Incredible spike this week for heating oil, diesel and jet fuel markets. OPIS confirms wholesale price increases of 75cts/gal to over $1/gal in the week. Return of some ugly inflation to freight, home comfort, and airfares.
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Diesel fuel is screaming higher again in futures' markets today - -physical prices doing even better. With crude wobbling between $88-$96/bbl, price of diesel varies from $140.28/bbl in Los Angeles to $195.30/bbl in New York. No break for inflation.
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Diesel becoming more and more unmoored. Fetches cracks of $95/bbl in Northeast; $68/bbl Gulf Coast; $66-$90/bbl Midwest; $63/bbl Southern Cal; $90/bbl Pac Northwest. Soybean oil is no slouch - - worth equivalent of ~5.51/gal before processing.
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A personal milestone: Today, I mark completion of Year 45 as an energy reporter. The last six months have had as much volatility and action as the first 44 years. I hope to continue providing objective analysis as we move through the Energy Transition.
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This is an embarrassing and inaccurate statement about oil security. Absolutely shameful when one considers North American crude production of over 17-million b/d currently.
Some SPR thoughts we shared with
@seanhannity
yesterday:
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was established in the 1970s in reaction to oil supply shortages brought on by Middle East instability and the Arab oil embargo.
The primary release scenarios identified were
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For the first time in 654 days, US consumers are paying less for gasoline than they did one year ago. OPIS/AAA average of $3.329/gal includes 26 states with prices cheaper than on last year. Before this downturn ends, expect all states but AK, HI & NV to see gasoline deflation.
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Gasoline & Diesel spot prices going absolutely ballistic -- if you see a tanker truck pass you on the road, its cargo may be worth $2400 more than what it was worth last night. Multiply that by 50,000 trucks on the road each day and you can visualize the bedlam.
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Today is the last day of my 46th year as an oil reporter. I'll make sure I provide the link for the online registry before the weekend is over. Tomorrow begins year 47, and I still have all my hair!!!
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Breaking news: price of diesel in NY Harbor soars over $200/bbl ($4.83/gal at the moment) according to OPIS. We've never started a fourth quarter with this little inventory for diesel and various winter fuels. Time to get those slankies and slankets.
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Mayday! Mayday! Mayday! Distress calls for inflation are loud. May kicks off with nationwide average diesel price of $5.296 gal. Only 7 states under $5 gal and average gross retail margin under a nickel, so we have not caught up to wholesale moves.
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Northeast folks need to be prepared for $6 gal and higher diesel pump prices and even $6 gal heating oil. OPIS finds cash diesel fetching ~$5.40 gal in NY Harbor and heating oil isn't far behind. Doesn't help that it's cold and the region is still generating degree days.
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If Jeffrey Currie from Goldman Sachs sees his shadow tomorrow, does that mean we'll have six more weeks of oil price weakness?
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This would add anywhere from 400,000 b/d to 500,000 b/d of gasoline should they move to winter specs. Normal butane (good for the motor fuel bouillabaisse in autumn & winter but not workable with summer specs) trades for about 37-41% of the price of Gulf Coast gas. Important.
US Energy Secretary Granholm expressed interest in lifting the summertime fuel specifications during the refiner meeting today - Source.
#oott
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Watch for a small bounce higher in US gasoline demand in tomorrow's EIA report. OPIS Volume Survey points to slightly higher consumption last week - - perhaps an increase of several hundred thousand b/d now that prices are below last year.
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WTI crude is up 15.8% through July and a total 17.8% month-to-date. Gasoline is up 11.2% and 12.6% in the same periods. The truly monstrous reflation is in diesel (+22.2% and +27.5%) and Jet fuel (+26.2% and 31.4%). Based on hundreds of thousands of OPIS data points.
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Pop goes the diesel on CME and physical markets. ULSD futures up 20.9cts gal and physical markets up 14-24cts gal across the country. The slippage in pump prices is over and we'll see more $6 gal handles on the weekend. More freight surcharges ahead.
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US exported almost 32 million barrels of crude last week. Unless I've skipped a quirky week, that is the highest amount of crude leaving US ports ever.
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Day 2 of Colonial Pipeline cyberattack-induced shutdown. Think of the downtime like a Richter Scale. Two or three days isn't devastating. More than 5 days disrupts markets. Possible gasoline supply sore spots - - AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MD and especially Tennessee.
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OPIS/AAA retail diesel price average hits $5.215/gal today, up 30cts/gal in one week. Highest price since early August but still shy of $5.816/gal record on June 19. That record is probably not safe.
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Don't be surprised to see US exports as a topic among politicians soon. We exported over 74 mil barrels of oil & products last week, including more than 30 mil b/d of crude. Crude number isn't unprecedented but 2 previously higher numbers occurred in the ultra-cheap year of 2020.
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This time EIA is guilty of an underestimation of US gasoline demand. Current number of 8.3 mil b/d is one mil b/d below last year. OPIS numbers on actual volumes pumped suggest a mid-November gasoline demand rebound. EIA may be about 500,000 b/d too low based on OPIS survey.
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Perception of de facto ban on Russian oil just keeps cresting. WTI up $10 bbl and some US gasoline markets (I'm talking about you NY Harbor!) up 34.5cts gal at midday. That is about $2800 per truckload. Seen similar moves only after hurricanes or superstorms. Typhoon Putin.
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NY Harbor jet fuel taking off again with OPIS assessing prices around $5.67 gal in PM, or approximately $238 barrel. Diesel is about $4.94 gal or $207.50 bbl. Crude is ~$110 bbl. When compared to 30 years of history, refiners are making nearly 10 times the margin of yore.
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I thought I was guilty of hyperbole when I predicted $7-$12 bbl drop for crude this evening. Most crude futures down $8 bbl and losses of 20-22cts gal for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Stay tuned for what looks to be Black Monday in the energy markets.
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EIA notes: Gasoline demand indeed hits new 2022/2023 high at 9.599m b/d; overall demand of 21.2 million b/d is highest since 12/22. Refiners still hampered by heat and summer issues. Watch the West Coast - -gas stocks drop 1.3 million bbl and are 2.2 million bbl below last year.
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Incredibly impressive Wednesday performance for WTI given bold Dollar move and off-the-charts inventory builds in U.S. Barely any weakness despite these typically huge headwinds. One wonders what happens when positive data gets released.
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Very quietly, but importantly, some California crude oil blends (Buena Vista e.g.) have moved to $70-$71 bbl. Reasonable price with CARBOB at about $90 bbl. Might just represent the most expensive natural crude (exempting Syncrude) in the world.
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If API is accurate on gasoline stocks (+5.8 million bbl) we may begin hearing about a glut in US motor fuel. My guess is that refiners will trim runs now that the middle of the barrel is "meh" and not sensational.
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Throwing this out there for those still in the Twitter-verse. Some pundits believe immunity for Saudi Arabia's MBS is part of a back channel bargain for more global crude. WTI and Brent off $3.75-$4/bbl with some speculation driving liquidation.
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Finally, after 50+ years of driving, I made it to the Motor Fuel Mecca for US gasoline - - Buc'ee's! Gasoline was $2.859/gal on Friday. The place did not disappoint.
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Some obstacles for crude oil have been cleared. Speculative positioning in WTI is about as light as it's been in 15 years and the exodus out of GSCI and BCOM indices should be complete. If benchmarks don't fire higher from now through March, it will be quite telling.
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TransMountain is looking for 4.2-mil barrels of 2Q24 line fill for the pipeline expansion. Together with pending restart of BP-Whiting, Western Canadian Select crude prices have surged to about $63.20/bbl or just $16/bbl under WTI futures. Strongest price since 2023 wildfires.
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Unrest in Kazakhstan could be a bit of a Black Swan event for oil markets. One of the larger +s in the OPEC+ alliance with production of around 1.6 million b/d. Was NOT on the radar of oil bulls or bears as 2022 commenced.
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NY Harbor diesel surges over $4.17 gal or a little over $175 bbl. Jet fuel has calmed but at $4.72 gal in NY, it fetches $198.24 bbl. For East Coast refiners, it doesn't get any better than this. (Gasoline at a more modest $31 bbl or so over Brent).
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Thanks to all well-wishers. I survived a Category 4. I live and work about 10 miles from where this photo was taken. Everything okay now (I have a Lanai Cabriolet!) If you're prone to think about less fortunate types, the Harry Chapin Food Bank in Ft. Myers is a terrific charity.
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If there is a US rail strike, expect gasoline prices to move up rapidly. About 70% of the country's ethanol moves by rail, and people forget that high octane alcohol is the magic bullet for 87 octane or 92-93 octane gas. Without it, you have real problems.
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Signing off for the week -- my 2444th in the oil business, start my 47th year on Monday. Thanks for all the help along the way, and yes I still have my hair and I DO NOT DYE IT! This year beats the previous 46 in terms of dynamic moves and content.
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Here come the refinery earnings and they will not just be real, they will be spectacular.
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Today's meltdown in crude and refined products is actually more meaningful than yesterday's. Every single spot (physical) market for gasoline is trading well below CME RBOB and diesel demand destruction is accelerating.
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Ruh Roh: OPEC+ was expected to do nothing but instead they are slashing more than 1 million b/d of output. Expect crude oil to open $3-$5/bbl higher this evening and look for 8-12cts/gal hikes in gasoline and diesel.
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Takeaways from EIA report: Total crude & products inventories up 27.2-million bbl, which I believe is biggest increase ever. Gasoline demand of 5.1-million b/d overstates real consumption of about 4.5-million b/d. We now have a record 55-58 days of gasoline supply on hand.
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With one business day left in July, crude oil is up ~14% this month; gasoline is up ~11%; jet fuel is up ~19.8% and diesel is up 20.6%. Disinflation has recessed with the 118th Congress.
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Don't blame the messenger: In the next few days, you will see the most aggressive retail gas price increases of 2024. Gasoline marketers are NOT the beneficiaries. OPIS shows an average gross margin of 25cts/gal today, down from 65cts/gal six months ago.
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Don't blame messengers! OPIS MarginPro shows retail gas margins are ~18cts/gal nationwide. That's down 17cts/gal in a week; 25cts/gal in a mo.; and 54cts/gal lower than end 1Q 2022. When one considers operating costs (labor, credit card fees, etc.) many stores are under water.
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Memorial Day weekend DID NOT see a return to old habits for driving & mobility. Lots more data to come but OPIS numbers suggest gasoline demand destruction in the 25-29% range. Either side of 7-million b/d as opposed to "normal" demand in the 9.4-million b/d range in 2016-2019.
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Incredibly bearish forecast by Citi today. Revise Brent 2024 down to $74/bbl and see possibility of $55-$60/bbl in 2H25. Even with OPEC+ cuts continuing, they see surplus supply in 2025. Model 1.2-million b/d surplus or 700,000 bbl surplus if OPEC+cuts are extended.
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OPIS counts 18 domestic crude postings below $5 bbl this morning, including NW Montana Sour, OK Sour, WY Sweet; Marcellus
Utica Condensate; ND Medium Sour; ND Northern Area Sweet; ND Sour; Eagle Ford Condensate; WY Heavy Sour; WY Medium Sour; WY Asphalt Sour; and So. TX Sour.
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Oil getting clobbered today, but EIA is mixed. Overall products' demand climbed 2.34 mil b/d, but mostly due to a 2 mil b/d surge in "other oils." Overall stocks incl. SPR off 12.1 mil bbl. Oil veterans know that Dec. brings LIFO, tax avoidance and leads to crude stock declines.
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Two more drone strikes on refineries deep inside Russia overnight. St. Patrick's Day 2024 will see gasoline prices that are higher than St. Patrick's Day 2023, thanks in part to the global surge in petroleum prices. Reflation in pump prices.
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Updating an OPIS observation: 4-week avg. domestic demand for distillate & 4-week avg net exports adds up to 5.403 million b/d. That means current figure of ~106 million bbl of distillate in inventory is under 20 days supply. Days supply at many terminals is in single numbers.
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Trust me on this observation -(I have no skin in the game!) US gasoline sales at the pump have dramatically tailed off since July 4. Demand destruction percentages in states with COVID case rises has doubled (Texas, California, and others). Meanwhile, refiners are raising runs.
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My horrible dog-less summer is over. Picked up this little ball of fur today and I'm sure she will be a constant 24-7-365 companion until further notice.
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Oil market mindset quite clear. You have wind, wild weather, war drums and a long weekend and crude is barely up 80cts/bbl. Quite a tell.
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Some of these spaghetti models imply that Hurricane Lee could impact the Irving refinery in New Brunswick. There is no more crucial refinery for North Atlantic supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
#BREAKING
🌀 Lee has rapidly intensified to a Category 4, Major Hurricane as of 5 PM Thursday, the 3rd of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Lee has remarkably strengthened from 80 mph at 5 AM to 130 mph at 5 PM, gaining 50 mph in just 12 hours. Based on the latest models and
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Moscow concert hall bombing dominates the news, but drones hit a Rosneft refinery in South Central Russia last night, with the Kuibyshev complex on fire. Refinery runs about 135,000 b/d of crude and feedstock and pushes Russian refinery losses above 700,000 b/d.
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If you haven't been paying attention to "renewable diesel," you should. Valero and its partner in the Diamond Green Diesel project made a profit of $2.72 gallon on the fuel, thanks to various credits. That's more than $114 barrel if you are keeping score.
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EIA: Distillate could be the sleeping giant as we move through very subdued demand weeks. National inventory decline of 2.8-million barrels was weighted toward PADD 1 where stocks fell 2.8-million bbl. Net exports still robust at more than 1.3-million b/d.
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Keep your eyes on gas prices in California ($5.34/gal); Arizona ($4.002/gal) and Nevada ($4.56/gal). Considerable refinery maintenance forthcoming for Chevron-El Segundo, Chevron-Richmond, and PBF Martinez, CA. And the regulatory circus is coming to town this week.
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Ugly EIA report for US gasoline demand, but it's probably an overstatement. Demand barely topped 8-million b/d and inventory built by a huge 6.5-million bbl despite another 400,000 b/d cut in runs. Diesel still looks dangerous this winter, but mood is pretty pessimistic today.
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Crude surging to multi-month highs thanks to disastrous flooding and storm in Libya. Weather isn't just a causal factor in North America - -it looms large on every continent. Brent hits $91.84/bbl and WTI reaches $88.72/bbl.
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Pain in the Permian intensifies. Midland-based WTI gets done at $8.25-$8.75 bbl off WTI futures this afternoon. About $42.75 barrel to end the day.
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This could be a huge day for US refiners. Early action finds gasoline blends up 3-5cts gal and D6 ethanol RINs are flirting with 90cts. If the "leaked" numbers for RVO are accurate, much lower refinery compliance costs could be in the offing for CVR, PBF, HFC, VLO, and others.
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Diesel prices are once again screaming higher. Intraday level above $3.40/gal represents highest futures price since January 26, 2023. For refiners, diesel is fetching "cracks" that range from $39/bbl all the way up to $81.75/bbl. Reflation in the middle of the barrel.
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OPIS breaking: Cash diesel prices in NY Harbor top $6.04 gal as last half hour of NYMEX trading looms. That's over $253 bbl and points to more diesel (and heating oil) price increases of 25-50cts gal this weekend in the region. A little touch of California in the North Atlantic.
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Very spirited selling of crude today but the middle of the barrel is flexing its muscles. Thanks to lots of winter maintenance and downtime, diesel prices have firmed. US Gulf Coast diesel fetching nearly $38/bbl over WTI. Promising first quarter for US refiners.
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We could really use Atticus Finch these days!
Gregory Peck was once asked which role was his best success. “‘To Kill a Mockingbird,’” he said, was a role “I could make my own... This man is a small-town man. And I am — or was — a small-town man or at least was a small-town boy.”
Born today in 1913 💯
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Notice to oil journalists: turn off spellcheck and autocorrect when reporting on this refinery: Shell will undertake rolling unit maintenance work at its 404,000-b/d Pernis refinery near Rotterdam, after telling the market midweek that the turnaround will last five months.
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The mother of all gasoline spikes is currently underway in OK, KS, NE, IA, ND, SD, MN with wholesale gasoline prices up 20-40cts/gal today. Hint of a short squeeze even as summer gas specifications elapse next Friday.
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If you are a refinery in the Upper Midwest that can run heavy sour crude (e.g. WCS), you are selling diesel for about $100 bbl over crude costs. Rest of the country has to muddle through with $75-$77 bbl margins.
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One surprise from EIA - - About 2.24 million barrels of diesel and heating oil was imported into the US last week. High price is a magnet for merchant cargoes.
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Biggest takeaway from EIA report: US refiners are near the peak of autumn maintenance, running about 583,000 b/d less crude than a year ago. But 336,000 b/d of that number represents the loss of Philadelphia Energy Solutions plant.
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Incredible spike in West Coast diesel values is underway. Bay Area CARB diesel (and renewable diesel) topped $4/gal this morning, or a tidy little $81.50/bbl above WTI futures. Some refiners running heavy California crude find margins at twice the cost of the crude.
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OPIS reports a couple of Northeastern utilities have interrupted some commercial/industrial customers on natural gas. Not a big deal yet, but deeper cold could see diesel and kerosene fly off the shelves for some natural gas customers.
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Quick EIA analysis: Today's report could ignite another diesel rally. Domestic demand surges by 588k/day and refiners run 332,000 b/d less crude & feedstock. Output of 4.782-million b/d falls desperately short of combined domestic and offshore demand needs.
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Breaking news: US will be buying some US sour crude (~1.2 million bbl) for January delivery to the SPR for an average price of $77.57/bbl and remains in the market for more January material as well as in months 1-6 in 2024.
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As predicted in previous OPIS coverage, Phillips 66 won't restart its Belle Chasse, LA refinery but will instead convert the facility into a terminal. Could tighten up Gulf Coast refining capacity a bit in 2022. Beneficiaries include Valero, PBF, CITGO, and other coastal plants.
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Some good news for flyers? The squeeze in NY jet fuel supply appears to be over. OPIS confirms deals done around $3.69 gal as opposed to the $7-$7.60 gal numbers seen during the peak.
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Perspective: July 4 national average price for gasoline through the years:
2018 -~$2.86 gal
2017 - $2.23 gal
2016 - $2.27 gal
2015 - $2.77 gal
2014 - $3.66 gal
2013 - $3.48 gal
2012 - $3.34 gal
2011 - $3.52 gal
Source: OPIS & AAA
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Today may mark the beginning of a parabolic multi-month rise in diesel. Northeastern inventory down to 14.7mil bbl; Exports of diesel top 1.6mil b/d; and refinery runs are well off peak. Wildly higher numbers probable for one of the insidious drivers of inflation.
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Rare result from OPIS Gasoline Volume Survey last week: for the first time since March, sales of gasoline surpassed those of the previous year -- by an increment of about 2.4%. Pre-holiday driving was brisk and motorists fueled up ahead of Winter Storm Elliot.
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P66 restarted Bayway FCC and Gulf Coast refiners ran 309,000 b/d more crude last week. That makes for promising resupply course for gasoline in a month where the recipe changes and higher yields loom. Near a top for retail prices in my opinion.
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On this penultimate day of July, US gas prices have eclipsed $3.75/gal for the first time in 257 days. This summer's intense heat has consequences as more than 500,000 b/d of refining capacity has not been able to be utilized.
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Bull-to-bear market in oil? Here are March tops compared to today's lows (so far):
Brent $139.13 to $97.44 bbl
WTI $130.50 $93.54 bbl
RBOB $3.8904 $2.924 gal
ULSD $4.6709 $2.973 gal
Expect a violent bounce, but it's a likely bear market rally. And yes, gas prices drop.
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Breaking news: OPIS confirms White House will move toward process for sale of next 20 million bbl from SPR; lay claim to savings of as much as 40cts/gal on gasoline thanks to previous releases; and articulate plan for replenishment of SPR reserves. More to come.
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Today marks the first day of trading summer gasoline at the US Gulf Coast and prices for that grade are 10cts/gal higher than the winter blend that traded on Friday. Expect to see US retail gasoline prices surge easily past $3.40/gal in the next 24-48 hours.
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US refiners really have a problem with the "middle" of the barrel. Diesel demand last week was measured at just 2.8-million b/d, the lowest September number since the week that brought the deaths of Princess Diana and Mother Teresa. That is incredibly bad Karma.
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Don't misread today's EIA report and 100,000 b/d drop in US crude production. All numbers are "modeled" and Alaska has summer maintenance.
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Hidden in this week's EIA report - - The U.S. exported nearly 7.2-million barrels of crude last week, highest level in our lifetime by far.
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New York City's fleet of vehicles will go to all renewable diesel by end-2024. Question is who will supply the fuel - -will it be Neste, Monroe Energy, Braya? No LCFS program in NY but 1.7 D4 RINs for each gallon.
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Expect to see most gas prices slip below $5 gal this week. Demand destruction is taking place among consumers but money flows into WTI and RBOB are as brisk as ever. OPIS shows wholesale drops of 4cts to 17cts today.
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Morgan Stanley raises Brent crude expectations to $80-$85/bbl from $75-$80/bbl. Now sees demand outpacing supply by a tiny but significant 200,000 b/d this year. Oil supply and demand aren't measured with precision instruments so there is plenty of room for dissenting opinions.
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If you thought refining margins for diesel in the $50's were doomed, you were right but probably for the wrong reasons. Coastal margins in the US are now in the $60's as Europe gets ready to boycott Russian refined products. Excessive by historical standards.
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The US just lost another refinery with Phillips 66 decommissioning its Santa Maria, CA plant. But others are on the way:
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CME ULSD futures closed at their lowest level since February 2, 2022 - $2.7832/gal. Retail diesel prices and commercial prices for trains and truckers should tumble through the rest of the second quarter of 2023. Bank on it.
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