Two new tariff pieces from @The_Budget_Lab this afternoon: The first is our usual report on the state of tariff policy, updated to reflect the new exemptions announced over the weekend. The second looks at what a "tariff dividend" would mean for the budget and inflation. [1/5]

According to a new study from the Yale Budget Lab, AI has caused no discernible disruption in the labor market based on 33 months of data since ChatGPT’s release.

Disseminated on behalf of Delivra Health Brands Inc. New Thesis Pick! You do Not Want to Miss this One! $DHBUF Long spec Idea : 0.21-0.26 Stops 0.14 Res: 0.383 Res 2: 0.52 $DHB.VN Long spec idea: 0.32-.37 Stop: 0.2 Res: 0.55 then 0.68 ⁠Disclaimer Disclosure inside

Tomorrow. Nov. 12 at 12:10pm ET. Join the @The_Budget_Lab webinar, "Undermining Democratic Institutions: A Hidden Threat to Economic Growth." Register here: https://t.co/66NvkM0IYS Panel moderated by @jbarro with: @cmrodriguez95, Deputy Dean and Leighton Homer Surbeck Professor

It's not that there's no signal to Challenger data - here's six month average of announced job cuts vs. six month average of JOLTS layoffs. Both suggestive of labor market weakening. But we should be careful of overinterpretation.

Ok one last Challenger graph: according to Challenger there have been 50,000 layoffs due to AI this year...and only 6,000 due to tariffs. I personally am skeptical the impact of AI on labor markets is 8x larger than that of tariffs.

America needs you! Join U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement today.

In the Challenger data you saw a spike in layoffs in the technology industry...but also a spike in announced hiring plans. In fact the announced hiring plans are the largest on record. 1/

Watch @NatashaRSarin discuss tariffs on @NewsHour

Former Biden Treasury Official @NatashaRSarin and Former Trump Economic Advisor @StephenMoore discuss the battle over health care costs:

New update from @The_Budget_Lab on the state of tariffs. Included are: (1) Today's China deal cutting "fentanyl" IEEPA tariffs (2) Heavy vehicle tariffs going into effect tomorrow (3) Some technical tweaks on how we calculate ETRs [1/4]

So great to be with @NPR @npratc on risks building up in the private credit market. Listen here:

Register for the next @The_Budget_Lab webinar, "Undermining Democratic Institutions: A Hidden Threat to Economic Growth" on Wed. November 12 at noon. https://t.co/66NvkM0IYS Panel moderated by @jbarro with: @cmrodriguez95, Deputy Dean and Leighton Homer Surbeck Professor of Law,

Some professional news: Today is my last day full-time at @The_Budget_Lab. It was an honor & a privilege to call the TBL team "coworkers" over the last 18 months. Intelligent, curious, & utterly collegial. What they've built & accomplished in so short a time is just stunning. 1/3

Updated estimates from @The_Budget_Lab on the state of tariffs, incorporating new detail about wood-related tariffs and new data on how imports flow through to domestic consumption: 1/5

AI is not affecting the labor force in isolation - we also have an aging population and a decline in immigration. So can the one save us from the other two? ...no 1/

New report this morning from @The_Budget_Lab thinking through the challenges of distributional fiscal analysis when a policy is deficit-financed. We talk about the issues and present our preferred methodology. 1/7

Watch @marthagimbel on @YahooFinance discuss the latest @The_Budget_Lab report evaluating the impact of AI on the labor market:

So thrilled to have joined @nytopinion as a contributing opinion writer! My first piece, on how the AI boom is masking our policy blunders, is out this morning. Read it here: https://t.co/CECSyjy5XQ

Great to be with @SquawkCNBC this morning to talk a jobless jobs day -- and why we really need govt data to understand what is happening in the economy. https://t.co/iaByJIfEQO

I really appreciated the opportunity to talk with @SRuhle @chafkin on @11thHour last night on the consequences of the shutdown, watch here: https://t.co/H7utfp9eTs

Appreciated reading @martinwolf_ on the new economic world using @The_Budget_Lab data