Matthew Cochrane
@TheMattCochrane
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Investor | Writer | Detective | Sinner saved by grace I tweet about investing in the stock market.
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Warren Buffett called Philip Fisher's book, "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits," one of the best books on investing.
It might be my favorite investment book ever, so much wisdom inside!
Here is Fisher's 15-point checklist of questions to consider before buying a stock:
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Me: Unassumingly walks into the kitchen.
Wife (listening to the news on the radio): Do we have $NVDA stock?
Me: No, we sold it in January because it had gone up so much.
Wife: Oh that's too bad, because the news said it was up a lot this year.
Me: Well, yeah, it is.
Wife:
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@gunsnrosesgirl3
"even though no one alerted them to the event"
Because if someone told them or left them a note or sent a text, this could all be easily explained.
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A meta thread consisting of a thread for each of Phil Fisher's 15 points to look for when investing in a stock, taken from his classic investment book, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits.
This is probably my favorite investment book -- so much wisdom!
(continued)
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When to sell is one of the most difficult questions investors have to face.
The best answer I've found comes from a chapter in a book that Warren Buffett called one of the best books on investing.
Here's when Philip Fisher tells investors to sell ... and when not to.
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My interview with
@saxena_puru
is now live! We discuss:
Similarities btwn today's environment and the financial crisis and 2000 tech bubble
Why he likes e-commerce, fintech, and software - and his favorite stocks from each
Why he hedges
And more!
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I think $SQ just dropped their Q2 results? Late on a Sunday afternoon lol.
Gross profit $1.14B, +91% YOY
Adj EBITDA $360M, +268% YOY
Cash App profit $546M, +94% YOY
Seller gross profit $585M, +85% YOY
Net income $204M
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Polen Capital's 5 guardrails for investing:
1) Rock-solid balance sheet
2) Sustainable ROE above 20%
3) Excess free cash flow every year, not just in good years
4) Stable to improving margins
5) Real organic rev growth, better than industry cycle
What would you add?
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1/ Let's talk about Facebook $FB. Another great company that gets so little respect. It just turned in another beautiful quarter and is getting little love on Wall Street. Let's take a look at its earnings...
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When to sell is one of the most difficult questions investors have to face.
The best answer I've found comes from a chapter in a book that Warren Buffett called one of the best books on investing.
Here's when Philip Fisher tells investors to sell ... and when not to.
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Late to this, but too incredible not to RT.
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1/ Hey Zuck, if you're really serious about $FB winning in the metaverse it's time to play some 3D chess.
Start by making a HR bid to acquire Take-Two Interactive $TTWO, the video game studio home of Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, NBA 2K, and now Zynga.
Here's why...
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Just got done talking to
@saxena_puru
, podcast/video going up this week!
Discussed lessons learned from 2000 tech bubble and financial crisis, why some of today's tech stocks deserve their valuations, and hedging.
Also talk $SHOP $ADYEY $SE $AYX $MELI $PYPL
Stay tuned!
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1/ I believe one of the most undervalued assets on Wall Street is Alphabet's YouTube. Let's discuss.
Long $GOOGL $GOOG
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Mark Zuckerberg is getting better at messaging. $FB
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1/ Repeat after me: You don't have to time the bottom.
From Oct 2007 to Apr 2013 (5.5 yrs), S&P 500 was down an average of 21.2%.
For 2 full years, it was below that mark.
Any time during that 5.5 yr period was a spectacular buying opportunity for long-term investors.
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Amazon $AMZN shares are ⬇️, but everything you should want to see looks great:
Net sales $113.1B, +27%
Net income $7.8B, +50%
Low margin e-commerce sales growth slowing, but high-margin segments all crushing it:
AWS $14.8B, +37%
Advertising $7.9B, +83%
Subs $7.9B, +28%
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Shelby Davis is the best investor you never heard of.
He turned $50K into $900M, a 23% CAGR!
Here's how he did it...
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Mark Mahaney has covered Internet stocks on Wall Street since 1998.
He is in the top 1% of all professional analysts, w/ an avg annual return of 26.9%.
In his book, Nothing But Net, he shares these 10 tech investment lessons he's learned after 25 years of making calls.
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End of January top holdings:
$AMZN 7.8% of portfolio
$SWKS 7.1%
$MA 6.9%
$MSFT 6.5%
$GOOGL 6.5%
$FB 6.4%
$PYPL 6.3%
$DIS 4.7%
$SQ 3.9%
$ADBE 3.9%
$GPN 3.2%
$PAYC 3.1%
$SHOP 3.0%
$HD 2.9%
$EA 2.6%
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@jrichlive
Time is more important than money
Value isn't the same as price
My time with my kids is finite
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It's been over 18 months now, and I have to say that this would make for a fascinating case study.
$MSFT vs. $ZM
A case study will be written on how Microsoft allowed Zoom to eat their lunch.
They spent millions on subterfuge trying to paint Slack as an inferior enemy when MSFT Teams actually can't do what Slack does and Teams' real competitor was Zoom.
Now Zoom has 300M Daily Users. Lol.
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I'm always harboring half-baked M&A ideas. For instance:
1) $DIS buys $EA (synergies w/ESPN, already makes Star Wars games)
2) $ZM issues shares, buys $WORK
3) $NFLX buys $VIAC, content for specific demographics, e.g. Nickelodeon for kids
What are your favorite M&A ideas?
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1/ Let's talk about $MSFT since it just reported earnings and it looks like it's up nicely in AH trading.
Such a great company, let's look at the results and I'll share a few thoughts.
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This week:
Mastercard $MA
Net revenue +24% YOY
EPS +46% YOY
Operating margin 57%
Visa $V
Net revenue +25% YOY
EPS +23% YOY
Operating margin 51%
In other words...
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Nvidia's $NVDA moat explained in just more than 2 minutes
What would it take to compete with NVIDIA at this point?
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How to analyze a:
◾️ Balance Sheet
◾️ Income Statement
◾️ Cash Flow Statement
In just a few minutes:
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Mark Mahaney has covered Internet stocks on Wall Street since 1998.
He is in the top 1% of all professional analysts, w/ an avg annual return of 26.9%.
In his book, Nothing But Net, he shares these 10 tech investment lessons he's learned after 25 years of making calls.
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Fintwit needs their own version.
You can only pick three for your portfolio for next three years.
What do you pick?
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1/ Great growth investor Philip Fisher gives 15 points to look for when investing in stocks.
Point
#1
: Does the company have products or services with sufficient marketpotential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years.
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1/ In honor of Bezos's retirement announcement this week, I wanted to systematically review his shareholder letters, something I've never done methodically.
Let's start with the first '97 letter that introduced the world to $AMZN's "Day 1" philosophy.
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Hmm, looking at $SNOW and thinking ...
$SHOP and $ZM are my favorite bargain basement value stocks right now.
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Indulge me for a second this morning.
This is my oldest, James. Today he somehow turns 14 yrs old. I know it's cliche, but it's amazing how fast time goes. I don't know who needs to hear this, but spend time with them when they're young, you never get that time back.
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Shelby Davis is the best investor you never heard of.
He turned $50K into $900M, a 23% CAGR!
Here's how he did it...
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Enjoy your time off and BBQs today, but remember some really did pay the ultimate sacrifice so that we could enjoy our freedoms.
This is Navy Corpsman David Moreno and me when we were stationed on Guam together, either 99/00. He was killed in Iraq in 2003.
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One of the best skills you can learn as an investor is to add to winners. As Peter Lynch would say:
“Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds."
Here are my buys of $MSFT as it approaches its 5-yr anniversary in my portfolio
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1/ Akre Capital Management says the essence of their investment approach captured by 3-legged stool:
1) Extraordinary business
2) Talented management
3) Great reinvestment opportunities and history
If you could add a fourth leg, what would it be?
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What's one company you couldn't live without?
I'll go first: $GOOG/L
Between Search, Gmail, Maps, and Calendar, it's just an indispensable tool for my everyday life. YouTube is just the cherry on top.
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Twitter $TWTR ads are so effective. On my feed right now is a promotion for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals between Miami-Boston, a game that took place on Monday, May 23rd.
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I know this will seem basic, but this is something I've been thinking about recently:
Not paying off your mortgage is a terrific hedge against inflation.
This seems doubly true now with such low interest rates.
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1/ End of June 2020 top holdings:
$AMZN 8.9% of portfolio
$PYPL 8.1%
$SWKS 6.7%
$MSFT 6.5%
$MA 6.2%
$FB 6.0%
$SQ 5.4%
$GOOGL 5.3%
$SHOP 5.1%
$ADBE 4.0%
$HD 3.5%
$DIS 3.1%
$MELI 2.7%
$EA 2.6%
$PAYC 2.5%
End of March 2019 top holdings:
$AMZN 8.8% of portfolio
$MA 7.1%
$MSFT 7.0%
$SWKS 6.5%
$PYPL 6.2%
$FB 6.2%
$GOOGL 6.1%
$ADBE 4.0%
$DIS 3.8%
$SQ 3.7%
$HD 3.6%
$SHOP 3.1%
$EA 2.8%
$VZ 2.8%
$GPN 2.7%
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Haven't done this in years, but given the conclusion of 2023's H1 today, this seems as good of a time as any to share my portfolio:
$AMZN 9.7% of my portfolio
$GOOG/L 9.0%
$MSFT 8.6%
$META 7.4%
$ADBE 6.4%
$MA 6.0%
$FRDM 5.6%
$AXON 4.1%
$NOW 3.8%
$HD 3.8%
$DPZ 3.4%
$BRO 3.3%
$ICE
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1/ Here are some of my thoughts on portfolio allocation w/ the caveat that I probably don't put as much time in thinking this through as I do in researching individual positions. Would love feedback or thoughts. (cont)
@FoolMCochrane
how do you size your positions?
Mine are based on:
1. Account Risk: It is a portfolio approach (probability of conviction as expressed in high and medium, duration, mcap, sector, etc)
2. Trade Risk: It is ATR based (trade risk)
3. Kelly Criterion for thematic satellites
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Time for some field research with my crack analysts today.
$DIS
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What inning are we in for the cloud? In Feb 2020, incoming $AMZN CEO Andy Jassy said...
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1/ If there was any doubt before, there is none now: Things are going to get worse, maybe a lot worse, before they get better.
We'll be deep in bear market territory tomorrow w/ a recession a real possibility (cont)
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I can't believe this book doesn't get more love on fintwit. So so good.
Has really helped me understand all the factors that go into capital allocation and creating shareholder value.
Highly recommend.
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So many thoughts on the $FB / $META call, but let's start w/ this: Zuck has learned to play the antitrust game.
In theory, anything people spend time on is competition, so, yes, TikTok is taking away from FB. But how can regulators claim FB is a monopoly while mgmt says this?
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More than halfway through the year, and the S&P 500 is up 0.2% YTD. What a boring and unremarkable year.
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Microsoft $MSFT Office 365 is such a beast. 345M paid seats, growing 16% YOY, and with a large TAM still ahead of it.
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10x sales is the new 30x sales.
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1/ Let's discuss one of the most successful, but forgotten, entrepreneurs of recent times, Wayne Huizenga.
I love learning from great entrepreneurs and being a South FL native, I don't think Huizenga gets the credit he deserves.
A thread 👇
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Maybe the real bull market this whole time has been the memories and friends we make along the way.
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Companies founded more than 100 years ago:
Dupont: 221 yrs
Colgate: 217 yrs
Corning: 172 yrs
Nestle: 157 yrs
Campbell’s Soup: 154 yrs
Nintendo: 134 yrs
Coca-Cola: 131 yrs
Hershey’s: 129 yrs
Ford: 120 yrs
Harley-Davidson: 120 yrs
UPS: 116 yrs
IBM: 112 yrs
Boeing: 107 yrs
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Change can come fast:
$AMZN: We doubled our logistics since the pandemic, basically building a $UPS in 2 yrs. We can now deliver cheaper and faster.
$SHOP: We sold our logistics business. That's a side business that we should probably just partner w/ others on.
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LOL, just like the end was nigh for Microsoft in 2013?
$MSFT Team users rose 40% in March. All software collaboration tools are on rise. Predictably $MSFT $WORK $ZM are thriving.
Sometimes a lot of companies within a sector can win, there doesn't have to be just 1 winner
A case study will be written on how Microsoft allowed Zoom to eat their lunch.
They spent millions on subterfuge trying to paint Slack as an inferior enemy when MSFT Teams actually can't do what Slack does and Teams' real competitor was Zoom.
Now Zoom has 300M Daily Users. Lol.
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I sold $TTD in the high $40s in Spring 2018 ... for a loss. It's a 13-bagger since. I never bought back in while price anchoring and then eventually concerns over valuation.
I'm pretty sure that puts me in a fairly exclusive club of former $TTD shareholders that lost money.
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1/ My portfolio has had a GREAT year. And I know many of you have had even better years. That's awesome!
But I can't expect these types of annual returns, or even half these returns. Or a quarter!
This is a marathon that will see LONG periods of sideway movements and retreats.
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@ControlTheBoard
Are you married?
Lol, either you're single or your wife is not like mine!
No, she totally glanced over that we had done very well with Nvidia 😂
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Block's/Square's $SQ acquisition of Credit Karma Tax is an underrated move.
Will encourage consumers to direct deposit tax refunds into Cash App which they will then spend, but it also gives $SQ financial info/data that it can use to further drive engagement.
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1/ I think $SQ making Cash App available for teens is bigger than most are giving it credit for.
Let's start with the obvious, it's a huge audience, 20M teens, that are underserved in today's financial landscape.
But it's so much more too.
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Meta Platforms $META stock fell 60% and was an incredible buy.
Snap $SNAP stock fell 60% and was still a sell.
How can you tell the difference? Here's what you need to know:
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End of March 2019 top holdings:
$AMZN 8.8% of portfolio
$MA 7.1%
$MSFT 7.0%
$SWKS 6.5%
$PYPL 6.2%
$FB 6.2%
$GOOGL 6.1%
$ADBE 4.0%
$DIS 3.8%
$SQ 3.7%
$HD 3.6%
$SHOP 3.1%
$EA 2.8%
$VZ 2.8%
$GPN 2.7%
End of Feb 2019 top holdings:
$AMZN 7.6% of portfolio
$MA 7.2%
$SWKS 6.5%
$MSFT 6.4%
$FB 6.3%
$GOOGL 6.3%
$PYPL 6.2%
$SQ 4.8%
$DIS 4.1%
$ADBE 3.9%
$HD 3.2%
$SHOP 3.1%
$GPN 3.1%
$PAYC 2.8%
$EA 2.5%
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Incredibly Amazon's advertising business now contributes more than half the revenue of an AWS and growing 2x faster.
Over TTM, it's a $25B business w/ high margins and growing 73% YOY as of last quarter.
$AMZN
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August 2014: $SQ acquires food delivery service Caviar for $90M in stock.
August 2019: SQ sells Caviar to DoorDash for $410M in cash/preferred stock.
Not a bad return on investment and positions SQ as neutral platform for all food delivery services to participate.
Nice.
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Is there a more beautiful X than when dividends are up and to the right and shares are down over the same time?
Few are better at it than $HD. In 2021, $HD returned $15B via buybacks, w/ another $9.5B authorized, and paid $7B to shareholders in dividends.
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"Facebook’s metaverse is dead on arrival." - Scott Galloway
Sometimes bells are rung at the bottom.
From:
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Can there be a little nuance when discussing Warren Buffett?
1) Like Michael Jordan was for basketball, Buffett is for investing. The best. Period. Unparalleled record.
2) But as when Jordan ended his career w/Wizards, I'm not sure I want Buffett managing my portfolio now.
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Navy corpsman David Moreno. Picture from when we were stationed together in Guam, May 2000. Died serving in Iraq in July 2003.
Miss you friend. We shared a barracks room for two years while serving together at NCTS Guam. Last time I saw him was at my wedding when he flew in from his ship in California to Florida. Good man, good friend.
#MemorialDay
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By end of 2023, $HD will be finished w/ its massive buildout of its logistics and fulfillment infrastructure.
This infrastructure is specifically designed for large, bulky items - think patio furniture, appliances, grills, lumber - making it hard to be matched by competitors.
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Piper Sandler Teen Survey: 88% of teens currently own an iPhone, 90% expect an iPhone will be the next phone they get. That's incredible mind share with today's youth! $AAPL
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I'm stepping away from my role at 7investing. Really enjoyed being there for 3.5 years, and will miss working with so many great people.
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1/ While I get most of my ideas from
@themotleyfool
and Fintwit, it can definitely be beneficial to look for add'l sources of ideas.
Recently
@AustinLieb
convinced me the 2019 Technology Fast 500 list from
@Deloitte
might be such a place.
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Okay, I gave you mine. What are your favorite investment books?
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I'm not a Bitcoin $BTC bull (more agnostic than anything), but this podcast really gave me a lot to think about.
@PrestonPysh
makes a good case for the cryptocurrency and
@BillBrewsterSCG
is a terrific interviewer.
Great listen if you're interested in the topic.
Ladies and gentlemen, a man who needs no introduction,
@PrestonPysh
. This was a fun one to record. Thank you for joining Preston!
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1/ Teaching my four kids about money, finances, and investing is a topic I've given a lot of thought to.
I'm sure this is far from perfect, but this is how I've approached it.
Any other suggestions on how to teach kids about money/investing?
I'm all ears!
@morganhousel
@patrick_oshag
@awealthofcs
@ReformedBroker
@TMFStoffel
@Matt_Cochrane7
@DavidGFool
@worstideas
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"You can't make money from big, megacap stocks. They're too known. Too covered. There's no information advantage to be had."
🧐🧐🧐
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Disruption can come fast.
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1/ What's the difference between a good value and a value trap?
A value trap is a stock that appears to be cheap but, in reality, is not because of deteriorating business conditions.
A thread 👇 w/my own painful lesson on this matter
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Really enjoyed talking today w/
@worstideas7
and
@7AustinL
about upcoming IPOs, $DIS, and $FSLY.
But what I'm already hearing a lot about is Roblox's IPO, the popular gaming/social network platform with kids/teens. Relevant discussion starts at 11:30.
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With its exclusive contract w/ $EBAY now expired, $PYPL has so many clear revenue streams to pursue through new partnerships. Big partnerships.
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The payment networks - e.g. $MA, $V - might be the best hedge against inflation. Asset light and inherent to their business model taking a small percentage of each transaction, meaning when the price goes up they get more!
The topic came up on the $MA Q3 call and CFO answered:
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@IrnestKaplan
She might be right, but that's not important.
What's important is that if she's right she will never ever see this post.
But if she's wrong ... 😂
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Both $AMZN and $MSFT said that the tough macro economic environment plays to the cloud's strengths.
1st quote $AMZN, 2nd quote $MSFT
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I love business. I love history.
Starting a thread of my favorite business/bio books that combine these two subjects.
Most of these are the "classics", so there might not be much new here for most of my followers, but I wanted a place to keep track of the books I've read.
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Nicolas Cage's 4-movie run in the 90s is legendary, but if we're talking best 4-movie runs ever, Harrison Ford has it beat with this early 1980s run:
* Empire Strikes Back (1980)
* Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981)
* Blade Runner (1982)
* Return of the Jedi
Twitter now allows 4 in-line images in one tweet.
So, let me regale you with the story of when Nicolas Cage did on one of the greatest 4-film runs ever:
• Leaving Las Vegas (1995)
• The Rock (1996)
• Con Air (1997)
• Face/Off (1997)
Cage went from winning Best Actor in
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I think $AMZN's logistics network might be its most powerful economic moat yet and will be difficult, if not impossible, for competitors to replicate.
Great thread.
The biggest moat, imo, in $AMZN retail is its logistics arm. The website as the first place most people go to online shop is great, but digital moats can be fickle. Owning a logistics network that delivers product the fastest is durable and likely irreplaceable.
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If you're an investor, don't lose focus on long-term earnings growth/sustainability. Almost everything else is just noise on a long enough time horizon.
"The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing."
- Stephen Covey
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Economic moats buy investors time!
"For the no-moat business, returns on capital come down fast as competition comes in ... For the wide-moat business, you have a longer time to reinvest cash at a higher return."
- Pat Dorsey
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