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Proprietary Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) Data. Swing Path Scores of MLB & MiLB Hitters | @QuantTee | Researcher, Author - Quantitative Hitting.
Joined January 2020
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Just a quick announcement - for all you new swinggraphs members - if you get prompted to sign in again, just refresh your browser
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Elly De La Cruz is an exciting player..but he has a very big problem..
His attack angle is *2nd lowest* in MLB - only E. Hosmer is lower. This is costing him a whopping 81 pts of xwOBAcon
So unfortunate b/c w/ his above avg VBA, he could easily have top quartile contact quality
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Wow! Aaron Judge who's been the best hitter by a wide margin is showing a significant swing change
Path score was 95, now not even top quartile at 70
Highlights a big problem across most all MLB orgs-this should not be happening and shows very poor process/swing management
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We think Davis Schneider will be a top 10 bat at 2B in 2024 (at least!). Path/Power/Plate scores are 90/65/99
..also, on Eduardo Julian - Scores are solid at 93/65/100
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Junior Caminero is *raking* in AAA. BUT - his scores for Path/Power/Plate/BtB are:
27/99/66/70
Proj systems have him at ~122 wRC+ (MLB)
The odds of elite contact quality w/ his current path are close to zero (see research). Would be our largest 'under' bet in baseball
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Andy Pages is going to be a great hitter. He has one of the best swing paths in MLB. Proj systems have him at ~115 for wRC+. We'll take the over on that
He's a lot like F. Freeman without the plate disc / walks
@SwingGraphs
Nice proof! To confirm, what does your system say about Andy Pages and also Austin Barnes for fun
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Notice the very predictable pattern in VBA by pitch location?
If you are not training w/ this understanding, you really should be
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@Padreshub
We have Tatis, Jr's AA at 10.2 (down from 11.5 in 2021). We have the MLB avg AA at 11.1 so he's showing below avg this year.
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A great ex. of why hitters should do what the best hitters do - not what they say..
Kinsler's vertical bat angle was significantly higher than average 34 deg. overall (vs. 31 MLB avg) and on pitches down and in, he was 40 (vs. 38 for MLB avg)
..He definitely did *not* do this!
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LAD have best swing paths in MLB...High CQ, low bad-hit %
..SD is a different story
..looking for regression in contact quality / xwOBAcon for TB
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We expect Kyle Manzardo to do very well at the MLB level. His Path/Power/Plate/BtB Scores in AAA are:
99/81/58/93
So, top of the game Swing Path combined with outstanding BtB skills and above avg power. Looks to be another F. Freeman / A. Pages type hitter
Kyle Manzardo is headed to the Bigs!
@MLBPipeline
's No. 52 prospect will make his Major League debut today for the
@CleGuardians
👏
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New research out today..
Can flat hitters (VBA and AA) have good contact quality (independent of EV)?
No, the odds of a flat hitter having elite (top quartile) contact quality are *close to zero*
/1
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Great to see Joey Votto having his best year since 2017. He has the best swing path in baseball.
When we developed our swing path rating system and he was at the top of the list...we felt pretty good we were on the right track
Great path to emulate for hitters
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Before the season, we alerted subscribers that Juan Soto was steeper in the last month of last season.
Looks like he could have made a swing change. He's finally back into the top quartile in contact quality for first time since 2020
..full update at end of the month
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Chris Taylor has a top 8% swing path in MLB which we pointed out last year. High VBA, tight LAs and flush/square contact.
..his power is not elite-36% rank. A great example for those who don't possess elite power - you can still be a very solid hitter w/ a great swing path.
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True/False:
Hitters who have better pate discipline have better contact quality
..amazing how often the pop views about hitting don't match the data..
Yes, it's valuable (b/c of walks) - but we should stop telling hitters this is the answer to their contact quality issues..
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Judge's problem is his attack angle which has gone from 98th percentile to 48th
Other notables: Varsho - VBA up a whopping 5.4 deg; J. Singleton up 4.1
Corbin Carroll has one of the lowest VBAs we've seen - beyond pancake territory - down a whopping 5.7 degrees to 20.8
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Elly De La Cruz looks like he may have made a significant swing change in adding attack angle - stay tuned.
If so, could be a *major* breakout!
..and of course (if true) we would update our initial post on him which got a few ppl riled up to say the least
Here's an updated scatter plot of the top hitters in average exit velocity & launch angle in Spring Training with a minimum of 50 pitches seen & 90 mph or higher.
Tried to highlight most of the outliers, but reach out if you have a question about a specific hitter.
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The best hitter in MLB is A. Judge by a wide margin
Path / Power / Plate scores:
A. Judge - 99/100/94
F. Freeman -90/76/70
Even if Freeman had Judge's power, he still wouldn't be as good
Freddie Freeman is the best all-around hitter in the Big Leagues. Any arguments?
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He certainly needs to do that..4th worst Sweet Spot % in MLB
Until he gets his VBA and attack angles back to 2019/2020, his contact quality (xwOBAcon) is not going to improve. Given his high EVs, his CQ should be *much* better
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Attack Angle is the total amount of loft in the bat/swing path at contact coming from both Explicit Loft (Catcher to pitcher tilt in the swing plane) and Implicit Loft (see below)
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Thread on why you should care about swing path (AA/VBA). Since EV has a high correlation to contact quality (xwOBAcon), we can compare a hitter’s actual CQ with what they should generate given their EV (using 90thpercentile EV)
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Did you know that lower EV hitters outperform their xwOBAs more often?
We've found two reasons we'll share next week. Looking for others-if you have ideas, put them in the comments and we'll take a look at the data and include in our follow-up post (assuming we can quantify it)
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Ever wonder why K% has no impact on overall performance?
..Higher exit velocity and better swing paths drive K rates up
..What you need to look at is 'Isolated K Rate' - After taking out the 'good stuff'
..also, hoping to have our Member Zone up in another week or two.
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This may be one of the best examples in years of a plyr transformation via swing path..
Mickey Moniak has below avg EV, combined w/ bottom of the barrel PD and btb skills..
..but he has gone from a below avg path to top 13% which has added a whopping 153 pts of contact quality
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Who's the best hitter in baseball?
In terms of contact quality, there's really no question
..the 36.6% bad-hit% is insane
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We have his Path/Power/Plate/Bat to Ball scores at:
55/43/30/51 at the AAA level
Typically, hitters that successfully make the transition from AAA to MLB have much higher scores
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Don't have swing path metrics on him yet..
..but holy cow!!
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Also, Elly De La Cruz - Swing path now almost top quartile! Attack angle is up significantly
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New research note out today..
There is No ‘Early Connection’ in the Baseball Swing
Big thanks to
@kww_DL
and
@DrivelineBB
for the OpenBiomechanics Project
/1
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Looks like Christian Yelich may have made a major swing change. His attack angle looks to have increased significantly (will confirm at month end)
It's early, but career highs in: Barrel %, Sweet Spot %, Avg Launch Angle and Contact Quality (even w/ lower EVs) - Wow!
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Looking into doing Swing Path/Power/Plate scores for Minor League Players..
..anyone interested?
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Corbin Carroll with 15 deg VBA on middle/middle
No surprise that he has the worst contact quality in MLB so far. Yes, it's early, but looks like he may have flattened VBA even further
Full data update at end of the month..
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It's more about what 'works' for contact quality at any level - although it is more important vs MLB pitching. Once contact quality is 'normalized' for exit velocity, players who are super flat (VBA and AA) have virtually no chance of having elite CQ
@SwingGraphs
This is fascinating, has this been back tested on other prospects/years? I love this type of research, might have to subscribe.
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Correa is having contact quality issues b/c his VBA/AA are both down significantly. Avg rank from 63 to 26. We have way too much tech in the industry for him to be guessing on how to get back to 2019. His (EV Ind) CQ will only improve if his "compact" changes = more VBA/AA
Carlos Correa has reported to camp and is getting to work in the cages. Has talked about having spent this offseason working on a more compact swing that he feels good about.
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A thread on our VEA findings
Two main factors:
1)Level of VEA
2)Flattening btw VEA and VBA at contact
Both factors matter and influence Max EV, EV, Contact Quality, xwOBAcon, and wRC+
Example below of excessive flattening – likely reducing EV and performance (Varsho, left)
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Been digging on our previous question on why there is no link between plate discipline and contact quality.
There are several reasons but the data clearly shows players looking to improve CQ should be focusing on the how (i.e. power,path) not the what (swing decisions)
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@enosarris
J. Soto's xwOBAcon on low pitches is .071 - 10th worst in MLB. His swing change to ultra flat VBA in 2021 is the reason in our view. When you combine low AA and low VBA, contact quality is generally going to suffer - his bad-hit % is very high for his EV.
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We overlaid our swing path data on the Steamer 2023 projections to find both + / - surprise candidates…
…Going out on a limb on B. De La Cruz given the limited MLB data but wouldn’t be surprised to see him as top 50 hitter in the next few years
..commentaries below
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Part 2 – Why low EV hitters outperform their xwOBA more than high EV hitters
Some very surprising results:
-The perf diff is not coming from GBs
-There is no relationship between sprint speed and EV
-The majority of the perf diff is coming from fly balls
/1
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Soto's VBA changed by whopping 5 deg! (will update at EOM)
Unfortunate that not one major outlet has commented on the documented VBA change. To (knowingly) ignore it when there is a clear link btw VBA and contact quality is irresponsible analysis
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Most hits in baseball are bad..
MLB hitters w/ the lowest 'bad-hit%' all have top quartile VBA, consistent LAs, and most have above avg. attack angles.
Tracking the metrics below can go a long way to giving a hitter objective feedback on swing path quality.
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Considering a project to get shoulder tilt on all MLB swings (just like we have for VBA). This would allow us to get connection at contact scores for all players in all pitch locations...and then analyze relative to the batted ball data.
Anyone interested?
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I know everyone is anxious for the monthly swing path update. There are 23K MLB swings (on BIPs) for the month and while we don't do it manually, the computer vision alg still has to physically go through each swing to measure
..hoping some basic info by Fri
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Excited to announce our new site and 3D Swing Path Web Apps
▪️ Compare MLB hitters in 3D - to averages or other players
▪️ Interactive 3D Swing Path Tutorial to understand how swing path works
..Raw VBA data available for purchase
Site is free below
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Some concerning trends on R. Acuna. Attack angle has gone from 82nd percentile to 12th. Contact quality independent of EV has gone from elite to about average. If he hits it 94 mph and doesn't strike out, he will be good no doubt - but he could be much better w/ his 'old' swing
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Swing path scores updated to the site..
..best path in baseball belongs to..
Aaron Judge
On the 3P Scores (Path, Power, Plate), only 2 players are top 20% in all 3..
Mike Trout
Yordan Alvarez
..Although M. Yastrzemski just missed being in that select group by 1 pt on path
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This one was a bit of a surprise..
..our data shows Jake Cave has one of the best paths in baseball. If he could meaningfully cut his K rate - watch out.
..not a single IFFB in his MLB career? (it almost looks like a data problem!)
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Since we now have Statcast data for all AAA, we've used our ranking system to see what teams are emphasizing what..
HOU emph pd and btb skills and *really* low on pwr, CLE emph path and pd, BAL emph path, pwr, BTB
Interesting LAD (highest MLB scores) are 3rd lowest overall
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Nice work from danpadilla51
..Get asked a lot about Explicit vs. Implicit loft. A great example here. Explicit is catcher to pitcher tilt in the swing plane and you can see it in the spine angle.
AA for both hits is the same..
..how it's generated is *completely* different
Altuve point of contact on 2nd AB 2B to RF and 1st AB HR to LCF.
Both barreled. Both 24 degree LA
Letting it get deep or catching it sooner in turn?
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Here is the VBA/Performance data for the 2021 season...
..getting calls from MLB hitters about how to go about incr their VBA and improving their contact quality.
Because VBA seems to be about the bat/ball collision (many swings), it seems unlikely that it will stop working.
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Huge surprise in the data. Higher levels of HBA produce better performance on low/away. What?
..Also, VBA + HBA is extremely predictive of perf. in that zone. Who has the highest VBA/HBA combo in that zone?..
...the best hitter on the planet
..Best "hardware", best "software"
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Just ran 2020 VBAs (over 6,800 of them). Cody B had the 2nd largest decrease in VBA. Notice the corresponding deterioration LA 'tightness' or SDLA.
..In our view, these slumps are driven by the change in mechanics/swing path
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Swing Path Scores uploaded to the site-added a chng column.
Yermin Mercedes flashing a top 12% path score- plus top quartile VBA.
..so likelihood of him doing well in the future is much higher than say R. Arozarena who was hot last year and is at other end of the path metrics.
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VBA and Swing Path Scores updated...
Downloadable spreadsheet w/ lots of columns coming next month!
C. Mullins and D. Swanson on the watch list - both paths regressed after significant improvement.
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If Mike Trout is 2.5 std deviations better in a certain metric, shouldn't we be focusing more attention there?
..turns out VBA and VBA consistency (by pitch location) is strongly related.
..so players looking for more 'barrel control' might want to consider increasing VBA.
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Sure seems like Contact Quality should be a 'thing'...
...with VBA as a key driver..
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Surprising that nobody is talking about this - a simple chart of one of the more significant relationships in baseball.
-It's an 'uncomfortable' chart and doesn't line up w/ 'first-take' logic - Why should Ks increase with better contact?
-The real answer based on data is..
/1
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Don't think many ppl are appreciating just how good his swing is..
Top 20 A.L. Batting fWAR for July.
It would be perfect if Chas McCormick and Kyle Tucker tied for A.L. Player of the Month.
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Was asked a question on the Dodger's VBA vs zone contact quality. It's a common misunderstanding that ppl believe flatter works much better up in the zone - there is actually no statistical connection up in the zone (like there is middle and down)
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Oneil Cruz had a significant increase in both VBA and attack angle in Sept...
And had the 21st highest wRC+ in MLB for the month
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Some ppl laughed at this projection before the season..
M. Busch has the 2nd best contact quality (xwOBAcon) in MLB so far. Yes, it's early but like we said before, there is a solid basis for him being *very* good
Michael Busch should be ranked *much* higher than 84
We have his Path/Power/Plate/BTB scores at
91/95/89/85
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What's up w/ Aaron Judge?
He has been in the best quartile of IFFBs and Sweet Spot % historically, but now is bottom quartile in both. Could be a major swing change.
Will have full data on his swing path at the end of the month (Acuna also)
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@HoodieArod
@Jomboy_
@TalkinJake
@BigBabyDavid_
IMO it's not an A. Boone question...it's why the guys with the 3D biomechanical data of exactly what changes Judge has made aren't raising their hands and getting more involved
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Hey
@MLB
- having video of every hit from the center field camera via Baseball Savant is really cool..
..what could make it even more awesome is adding video of the 'open' side of the hitter to the site
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Quite honestly, every person that subscribes to Swinggraphs Member Zone
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Receiving some questions on why VBA matters.
...Thought this might help
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Does "Time in the Zone" (TIZ) matter?
...the data suggests TIZ not only doesn't matter but that TIZ is *inversely* related to contact quality and performance. Working on project that will conclusively answer...
Both VBA and ESL reduce TIZ
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Getting interest from MLB teams - many just looking to steal.
..MLB orgs - Just wanted to let you know - the raw data is for sale. We are also willing to sell the full code to get the VBAs from game video as long as it is used for internal use only.
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A short thread on R. Acuna Jr..
Having a great year..but under the hood there are some changes happening that suggest he could actually be performing much better – which is insane
In 2022, he made significant swing path changes and reduced both his AA and VBA..
/1
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Some interesting findings from our Vertical Entry Angle (VEA) project..
..the more players flatten into contact, the lower their EVs and MaxEVs
D. Varsho & L. Arraez have sig flattening and could likely pick up EV w/ chngs...
Data suggests <10 for max xWOBAcon & wRC+
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Hard to believe so much debate on this in 2022. Yes, far less than 1%.
Two angels can be 'level' - VBA (below) and also the catcher to P tilt in the swing plane - neither are..
..why? the same reason golfers are leaving for LIV - players can make more money using more angle.
Here is bat position of 99 HR tonight off a pitch at top of his zone. His bat is not close to “level.”
Venture to guess that 1% of balls hit by elite players are “level” swings.
Let’s see if
@SwingGraphs
has data to settle this.
#SheGone
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In reviewing exp surp for last year, got 5 of 6 based on factors not being considered by projection systems
J. Soto is again projected by Steamer to outperform A. Judge in '24. Odds of this are *extremely* low w/ out a major swing chng. Judge's xwOBA was a whopping 60pts higher
We overlaid our swing path data on the Steamer 2023 projections to find both + / - surprise candidates…
…Going out on a limb on B. De La Cruz given the limited MLB data but wouldn’t be surprised to see him as top 50 hitter in the next few years
..commentaries below
1/
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Looking for a likely swing change for Kyle Schwarber..
..VBA data will be out next week - guessing he's going to be quite a bit flatter based on the data
..when your IFFB rate is 27% - *something* is wrong
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A lot of hype surrounding Randy Arozarena. Our swing path data shows he is in the bottom quartile in both VBA and SDLA. Very few players are putting up *consistently* strong numbers with this type of path...
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R. Acuna has changed his avg swing path angles (yr/yr VBA, AA) more than any hitter in MLB, w/ the exception of M. Taylor
Given the ability to fully measure bat/body, it is clear that off-season training needs to improve for many hitters
..update for 2024 at end of the month
Some concerning trends on R. Acuna. Attack angle has gone from 82nd percentile to 12th. Contact quality independent of EV has gone from elite to about average. If he hits it 94 mph and doesn't strike out, he will be good no doubt - but he could be much better w/ his 'old' swing
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Vlad is a very good hitter (currently 8th best xWOBA this year) so, yes, luck is the main factor *this* year
..BUT-he is not a 160 wRC+ hitter. His path is below avg (ranks 42%) so he will never consistently be that w/out a major change..
His career 130 wRC+ is who he is
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Looks like R. Acuna did indeed get his 'old' swing back..
VBA again top quartile
Std. Dev. LA back down to 25.6
Bad-hit% back down to 52%
xwOBAcon - 8th best in MLB at .519
Concerned about R. Acuna possible swing change..
VBA was top quartile - now below avg
LA band wider - from 26.5 to 29.7 (std LA)
Bad-hit % up from 47% to 58%
Ground ball rate was 10th lowest, now 25th highest in MLB
..hoping he finds his 'old' swing!
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Lot's of ppl drinking the cool-aid on Randy Arozarena.
Just sharing since we are the only ones w/ VBA and few realize its importance.
..he's a full 2 deg. flatter than the lowest MLB regular player
..excuse the interruption - let the party continue.
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VBA / SG_Path scores updated on the site for Apr – both MLB and MiLB
VEAs also now live
-R.Acuna – VBA back to ’21 levels (went flatter in ’22)
-B. Rooker solid Path/Power/Plate scores of 90/79/69 w/ good BTB skills
-J. Suwinski - also solid 87/87/98
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Who had the most positive swing changes last year based on the data?
..it's no coincidence that they all had significantly improved LA 'tightness' and hit the ball more 'square' / less backspin.
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Here's how our 'member zone' looks to be shaping up:
-Monthly updates of VBA and SG Path Scores
-Original research on data/mechanics topics generally not covered elsewhere
-Select plyr proj. for sig. upside/downside surprises
-Membership $5/mo or $29/yr.
What do you think?
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Got a question on what numbers a player should train to.
Mike Trout a great example and most players w/ great paths look similar.
Note the max difference is ~15 deg..It's all you have time for! (in terms of adjusting).
Notice the very predictable pattern in VBA by pitch location?
If you are not training w/ this understanding, you really should be
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Looking forward to getting actual swing path data on him - could be very good..
First month of data is key - did they make + or - swing changes over the off-season (Vlad, Soto, Acuna, Springer, Bellinger just a few we are watching). Everyone *thinks* they only make + changes!
Wyatt Langford getting the call to the big leagues is awesome
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Understanding 'Attack Angle' requires all three path angles (VBA, HBA, Explicit Loft)-plus the incoming pitch angle.
Because bat speed is faster for earlier contact, looking at 'hardest hits' will capture more highly pulled balls w/ lower LAs and lead to the wrong conclusion.
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Higher Attack Angles not only increase percentage of good hits, they decrease the percentage of bad ones...
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Concerned about R. Acuna possible swing change..
VBA was top quartile - now below avg
LA band wider - from 26.5 to 29.7 (std LA)
Bad-hit % up from 47% to 58%
Ground ball rate was 10th lowest, now 25th highest in MLB
..hoping he finds his 'old' swing!
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Too much flattening between launch and contact is indeed detrimental to bat speed and EV
..looking into developing a product that might help hitters evaluate and train this
more to come..
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We now have MiLB Path, Power, Plate, and Bat-to-Ball scores for hitters w/ Statcast data.
More to come but we'll take J. Outman to do very well.
..also note the barrel % and xwOBAcon that I don't believe are available anywhere else (?)
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It's here..
-Hitting not pitching is primary cause of Ks
-Avg LAs going much higher because of AA/contact quality conn.
-Factors creating contact quality are *same* factors driving K rates higher
-Huge opportunity for players…Big problem for baseball
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@EricCressey
@CresseySP
@maxcito87
@MH_CSP_Pitching
@CSP_Hitting
@Rye_Shane
@twolfie3
@FlatgroundBats
@FirstLadyofCSP
@ALysyStrength
@baseballifer11
@ONeilStrength
Great to see more people talking about this. Also, VBA has significant contact quality benefits overall - iow - the ball just comes off the bat more consistently for players with higher VBA
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One of our members suggested adding filters...
..so we did..
..we think you'll find them helpful. This example filters for players with scores above 70 in each category
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VBAs for the month of April have been posted to the site (Under VBA_CMo - for 'Current Month').
Some big surprises...
M. Machado *huge* increase in VBA - possibly a very big swing change.
S. Ohtani - VBA is down a ton in April
Working on updating Swing Path Scores now...
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Just one indicator of the reduced contact quality for Juan Soto.
If we wagered on these types of things, taking the under on his projected 7.9 WAR for next year would be our number one bet..
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A lot of ppl still misunderstanding why VBA/AA steepness 'works'. Up in the zone, it still outperforms. It's about consistency over entire distribution. Yes, SWM goes up but *Net/Net* it's worth ~17 wRC+ points - or about $8M/year to the hitter.
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A great (and very easy) metric for hitters to assess the quality of their swing path is bad ball % (topped, under and weak).
...if your bad ball % is too high - it's likely the result of low VBA and/or AA.
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Interesting...
DJ LeMahieu is in the bottom quartile for launch angle...
..but did you know he's in the top 13% of MLB for Explicit Loft (the catcher to pitcher tilt in the swing plane)?
..so it is the more 'oppo' contact point that is dragging down his LA by about 2 deg.
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On Yelich, relative to 2018, he has developed a significant issue regarding attack angle. His vertical bat angle and horizontal bat angle (timing) have remained virtually unchanged.
..his AA (on the low side in 2018) is now the lowest AA in MLB - by a *wide* margin.
What are the actual mechanical differences for the re-creation of the same 29-30 degree launch angle?
1. Slightly wider stride in 2018 Vs 2022.
2. Slightly greater tilt angle back toward the catcher in 2018 Vs 2022
@SwingGraphs
any noticeable swing path differences? 🤔
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Wow - a really extreme deterioration in swing path - maybe one of the largest (negative ones) we've seen. Unfortunate the path data is not being considered at the front end of the process - this was a *really good* path before it was messed with.
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