Steve-O
@SteveOweathaguy
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blizzard over sunshine/winter over summer… that’s about it.
Dartmouth, MA
Joined February 2010
What about Melissa? Is it going to make a Superstorm Sandy run at the East Coast? There has been a lot of chatter, for sure. But at this point, the probability remains low. Most members of the Euro Ens keep it offshore. The CMC runs have a few more that take it close. 👇 The
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Quite the wonky pattern next week. Melissa off to the south. Strong Noreaster just off the coast. Deep trough moving in from the west. Lots of moving parts.
Meanwhile the overnight euro blows up a monster high impact nor'easter separate from Melissa
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Wonky pattern middle to end of next week. Nor’easter…hurricane…. Deepening trough. Chaotic scene on the weather maps.
Not a good trend from the AIFS today. 😬 That upper trough shifting towards the SE opens a window for Melissa in New England. I do not want to see this trend continue! #Melissa #wxtwitter #wxX
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Wow. 18z AI looks like Wilma ( not for Florida but futher north) with big nor'easter and Hurricane to the southeast. Passes thru Bahamas midway between where Joaquin ( spelled it right for a change) went and Wilma
Pattern next week NOT like a Sandy that gets pulled in but more like Jauquin or Wilma in relation to the east coast. Storm well out at sea, but major amplification of the jet means a separate eastern storm with more beach bashing wind and waves on the table. Getting old, eh?
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Trend continues as Euro AI guidance continues to show a near capture by our upper level low... will track this over the next couple days #EcWx
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Lets keep watching this. Funky set up mid to.late next week
An uncomfortably large percentage of the GENC Google Deep Mind ensembles now landfall Melissa somewhere between the upper Mid Atlantic and Nova Scotia late next week.
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Complete opposite start to November looks likely for the east coast compared to last year. A preview of winter perhaps with west coast ridging and high latitude blocking.
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To Ryan's point, the new 12z Euro AI run once again has all the pieces on the table for something significant, but for now, they remain a near miss.
Gotta be honest... bit of a concerning trend. Northeast needs to closely watch how Melissa & our longwave trough interact. There is a scenario where Melissa phases with our ULL & pushes into the northeast, similar to Sandy in 2012. Euro AI ain't far off. #EcWx
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The run to run shifts in the upper atmospheric pattern along the east coast (valid for late next week) are just wild to watch on all the models. Here's the Euro with last night on the left and this afternoon on the right.
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This isn't good... Hopefully wrong..
Updated: ECMWF 12z down to 924 mb for Melissa, likely Category 5 over Jamaica. Thursday, Oct 23, 2025
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This scenerio not 100 off the table yet. While a long shot. This needs to be watched.
Gotta be honest... bit of a concerning trend. Northeast needs to closely watch how Melissa & our longwave trough interact. There is a scenario where Melissa phases with our ULL & pushes into the northeast, similar to Sandy in 2012. Euro AI ain't far off. #EcWx
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Melissa is going to become an absolute beast. And even if she doesn’t get involved. Separate nor’easter on the table in about a week.
EURO wind swath shows Melissa which should become a beast and in worse case, one of the strongest storms on record as hurricane models are going wild, staying SE of US, but separate noreaster bashes the beaches of the east coast in what is turning into one of the worst beach
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HAFS-A and B are not backing down at all yet. Latest runs for both take Melissa well below 900 mbar. Obviously no guarantee that will actually happen. Hopefully it doesn’t. But holy smokes. The environment this storm has found herself in could be the very definition of ideal
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Mind-boggling HFAS- B run similar to Wilma. Sick. Hard to believe a model can even conceive of this. Late season this is the place. 1932,Mitch 1999,Wilma 2005 hit 882 mb in this area Model run: 192g 228 883 pressure
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All Deepmind members besides like 2-3 make landfall somewhere in the Caribbean. Most of the land falling members are strong as well. I also think it’s time to at least entertain the idea of northeast US impacts, but that still far out. We could be dealing with a historic
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Certainly going to be a potential issue for the east coast if we continue to see a ridge build between troughs.
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Worth noting that while the Canadian model is the only one with a full phase, the last few runs of the Euro also have flirted with this potential. Gonna have to watch the trends closely.
Welcome back hurricane Sandy! (this is not a forecast this is the Canadian Model which holds 0 weight)
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Melissa has potential to be worst storm in totality to impact Jamaica. How so? The slow dance around the island for the next week means Harvey-like rain totals, and once the storm makes its move, it may be as strong as a cat 5 when it hits. Devastating 12z run on euro
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Halloween Snowicane named Melissa While the Canadian model takes a double-whammy into the NJ coast (see previous post), the 12z Euro has a very similar solution with a double-whammy on the Maine coast with a Snowicane in Eastern Canada. Moral of the story... models don't have
WOAH!!! 😱🫢 The 12z Canadian Model's depiction of Melissa on Halloween is nothing short of an absolute catastrophe! Yes, it does get some snow to fall in Northern Pennsylvania, but lets all pray this is wrong! My goodness... #wxtwitter #wxX
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