Matthew Gross
@HurricaneAddict
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Fascinated by extreme weather! (If I post fantasy hour model runs beyond Day 7, it's for entertainment and learning purposes, not to forecast.)
Westerly, Rhode Island
Joined June 2021
If this bitch went directly from nmia to mbj there would be no island left. That’s the reality.
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Using Ben's map, it's pretty wild to note that not a single storm tracked west of the black line after July 8th.
The 2025 hurricane season, so far. There have been 13 named storms. Of these, five became hurricanes, four became major hurricanes and three reached Category 5 — the second most on record. For the first time in a decade, no hurricanes have made landfall in the United States.
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The geography of the city is such that a ton of water is going to get squeezed into the bay from the south with the center making landfall just to the west. What's the good news? The elevation in the city rises rapidly so even with a large surge, most places stay above it.
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Santiago de Cuba (the nation's second largest city) is in line to take the brunt of the right front surge punch from still major hurricane Melissa. If we just draw a straight line from the center's current trajectory and circle the city, it's easy to see how this is going to go.
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Melissa is not done! She's back out over open water and rapidly reforming her CDO. While she will NOT get as strong as she was upon landfall in Jamaica, she is forecasted to hit Cuba as a CAT 4, and unlike in Jamaica's case where the less populated areas got the biggest blow,
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Black River is destroyed. Cars, homes, buildings, foliage, utilities wiped out in a bad way. But closer to the coast is worse than that, beyond recognizable. Gradient was remarkable.
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What 1900 was for Galveston, what 1935 was for the Keys, what 1938 was for New England, what Katrina was for New Orleans and the Mississippi coast, and what Maria was for Puerto Rico, Melissa will be that for Jamaica. An undisputed benchmark for all future storms in that region.
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Only two hurricanes in recorded history have made landfall with a pressure below 900mb in the Atlantic. One of them was today.
Putting the most-intense Atlantic hurricanes on a map, you can see just how extreme Hurricane #MELISSA is... #Jamaica's first Category 5 hurricane, and the first landfalling hurricane with a pressure below 900 mb in the Atlantic Basin in 95 years.
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Black River is a wreck. The river, the sea, and road are all in one. Just water. The hospital is damaged. Almost every roof is gone. The Black River Bridge is badly damaged I'm told. Catastrophic.
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The worst of the wind is over for Jamaica, but the worst of the flooding is not. Torrential rain bands will continue for the next several hours, overwhelming already bulging rivers. Dangerous waters will carry wind blown debris wherever the path of least resistance takes them.
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A short but scary video of the flooding in Santa Cruz, Jamaica, in the mountains inland from where Melissa is making landfall. Population is over 10,000.
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I'm still astounded by this update from the National Hurricane Center. This is one for the record books!
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New Hope joins John Hope as the most famous Hopes in hurricane relevance.
#Melissa makes landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope as a powerful category 5 hurricane. For the latest updates visit https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb
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We are moments away from major Category 5 Melissa making a historic landfall in Jamaica. Maximum sustained winds are currently at 185 mph.
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If the latest wobbles are any indication, Montego Bay might get in the eye later. Will be very close.
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Jamaica's south coast has plenty of high cliffs along the shore. Some place on the ground is seeing 220mph winds today! Just a matter of if the data is captured.
This dropsonde shows 172 knot winds (198mph) at the surface in the S eyewall and 188 knot (216 mph) mean lowest 150 m winds! #Melissa
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What 1900 was for Galveston, what 1935 was for the Keys, what 1938 was for New England, what Katrina was for New Orleans and the Mississippi coast, and what Maria was for Puerto Rico, Melissa will be that for Jamaica. An undisputed benchmark for all future storms in that region.
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One of those satellite loops that meteorology students will be studying for generations to come.
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Every single reading in this shot (sans one) registered sub 900mb.
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