It’s so much better here. Don’t know if I can keep ordering Dunkin coffee in NYC after experiencing the real thing.

This is the working example for correlation != causation in my intro to quant/intro to causal inference class. It doesn't take all that much thinking to understand that funding is, in fact, not randomly assigned to schools!

Yeah, there's just causation.

the simpson's paradox strikes again (and also there is strong literature supporting the crazy idea that more money from richer homes means better public schools)

A lovely post. In addition the the causal inference revolution, we now need a "variance explained" revolution which focuses on understanding what drives the variation in the world we see around us

Life experience data does not become less valid the more systematically you collect it.

Look at the distribution of z-values from medical research!

What happens when online job applicants start using LLMs? It ain't good. 1. Pre-LLM, cover letter quality predicts your work quality, and a good cover gets you a job 2. LLMs wipe out the signal, and employer demand falls 3. Model suggests high ability workers lose the most 1/n

A US Drug Enforcement Administration agent said the DEA made “high-level arrests” of 171 Sinaloa Cartel members across New England in August. A Globe investigation found that many of the DEA’s targets were addicts, shoplifters, and homeless people.

@simon_bazelon @sean_domnick Yes! In the strongest possible terms, yes!

Some people are fooled by randomness. Others are fooled by selection bias. About half of women and 1/3 of men in the UK were illiterate around 1850. We don't get to read their letters.

Econ nobel should go to the highest bidder if we want it to be allocated efficiently

https://t.co/0IfCh4ggnt

It's very human to only double check that a process is working when you get a weird result. It's also very bad practice, because sometimes your "right" result is due to a bad process and you will be misled. Social scientists (economists) do this kind of asymmetric checking.

Nothing to worry about just several thousand papers that are now by definition not replicable... On that note, if you'd like to read our latest preprint: "Replication for Language Models" see below

The best cure for gerrymandering would be to move to proportional representation with multi-member districts. There’s a bill in Congress called the Fair Representation Act that would accomplish this.

As well as the way that debates over economic issues impact affective polarization, where we find that ideological divides over economic issues appear to contribute less to polarization than debates over "culture war" issues like immigration and national identity. 3/3

We explore both the relationship between economic performance and affective polarization, finding evidence consistent with our earlier work than poor economic performance at the national level is associated with heightened affective polarization 2/3

(these are not policy prescriptions that are encouraged in "Abundance". "Abudance" is an actual book which a person can read.)