I fully expect DMs, EMs, etc to blow up in the next 48 hrs If I don't respond, don't worry. I know who has supported my work and I won't lose sight of that If you'd like to join me in developing a set of unified scientific standards for this field, my book is available in bio

Posted on Threads before kick sorry I'm slow for the screenshot. Gl

NFL Week 11 Updated after the MNF stinker Remember: I will be posting on THREADS starting tonight. Nothing against X folks, I'll still be around - but for earliest access to posts follow me there Hosting my "Tuddy Talk" on IG live at ~7pm. Same @ https://t.co/Os2MlXp8YT

Updated after the MNF stinker Remember: I will be posting on THREADS starting tonight. I will be hosting my "Tuddy Talk" on IG live at ~7pm. Same @ Nothing against my X folks, I'll still be around - but for earliest access to posts follow me there 👇 https://t.co/UFWqPIAUkn

@ChetHopeAndrews @RepTimBurchett Here ya go. Have fun reading it. I did. Feel free to express an informed opinion afterward. Quiz on Tuesday. https://t.co/LnahHoeo5T

Update @NateSilver538 : are prediction markets smart?

"nobody will have a good explanation for this" Me, your intellectual superior: More people voted in 2020 than any other year. Anything else I can help you with today?

Comparing the poll margin to the election margin is an internally invalid metric. The belief that polls, if accurate, will predict the election margin is a flawed foundation, ignoring multiple confounders. It is analogous to the belief the Earth is stationary.

X axis: the leader's poll average Y axis: how much the leader is "up by" Black dot = leader won Gray dot = leader lost For 100 years the field has believed that how much the leader was "up by" was the only variable of significance relating polls to win probability.

It was wrong about the difference between the spread method and proportional method, so I corrected it so I could get another chart

You know you're obliterating someone when they give a definition, then come back years later with a far more subjective definition. Years ago, @zaelefty cited which gametes someone produces as their sex Now, he's retreated to "organized to produce" He refuses to define that

I love when someone makes a claim, I ask them to back it up, and their response to being asked to provide an OBJECTIVE definition is to ask me "Really what do you think though..." It's deliciously ironic and I love putting people like this in their place

If I cite a biologist that says the opposite thing, does that prove it's true? It takes a truly stupid person to make an argument from authority and not realize it carries zero weight in a debate of fact

"if he's able to hit Calcaterra in stride.." Shut up, Troy

Trump on Air Traffic Controllers: The one’s that stayed, I'm sending them a $10,000 bonus. Ingraham: Where is that money coming from? Trump: I don't know.

Calcaterra was a small bet at +1400, but popped to +1800 on ESPN and that's a pretty big one. The 1st TD bet is still available on FD and ESPN

Week 10 MNF Love +1100 4u 2 +12500 1u Dotson +1100 3u Fitzpatrick +1200 4u 1st +6000 1u 2 +12500 0.5u Calcaterra +1800 4u 1st +10000 2u Bigsby +1700 3u Brooks +2800 3u Cooper +3000 Shipley +3300 2u Gipson +4000 Latu +5000 2u Reminder: Starting THURSDAY I'm posting on Threads

https://t.co/pJw6ma9pQU

I will continue to post SCREENSHOTS of bets here, for continuity and timestamps, but obviously those will be AFTER I post my bets over there...which is already very close to game time. Fwiw that platform is also much easier to use for this purpose - higher character limit

UPDATE I continued posting on X this yr for familiarity + I gained a lot of followers for sports betting here But my reach is being suppressed - a lot - because I no longer have a ☑️ I will be transitioning to new place STARTING NEXT WEEK (after MNF)👇 https://t.co/XOVsBerwbs

Just a reminder that @FiveThirtyEight said that not only were Republicans favored to win the Senate, they had a 1/4 chance of holding 53+ seats. Time for people to conclude what I concluded years ago: they don't actually know what they're talking about. Their own words prove it.