RTB 🚀 - AKA Mr Wen
@RaisingTheBAR47
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Challenging ShitCo+Ponzi mgmt and Furus on their BS. Not investment advice. I’m an idiot
Miami, FL
Joined April 2020
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Which way, western man?
1.) Value commodity investor; 10x your book once a decade. Rest of the time bleed 20% every year
2.) Growth investor; lose 90% of your book once a decade. Rest of the time compound 20% per year
3.) Macro guru; never make money but sounds v smart af
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Every good NYC hedge fund group has:
-Well adjusted healthcare guy with 3 kids that’s always “right”
-Happy af perma bull tech guy
-Stern and articulate financials guy
-Podboi retail guy talking about tuff comps
-Batshit crazy cyclicals dude who is a danger to himself and others
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Time for a fucking lesson for you schmucks on why fucking stocks do what the fuck they do in the long term
Sit the fuck down because you’re going to learn today
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Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhah
LG fucking despises $GS with a passion
#EFT
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Mexico closing the border to the US would basically confirm we’re living in a parody simulation tbh
#EFT
MEXICO HALTS GAS RELIEF AS U.S. CITIZENS HEAD SOUTH TO STOCK UP, FINANCE MINISTRY SAYS BORDER CROSSERS HAVE DIMINISHED SUPPLY
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Friendly reminder to those buying the dip in energy thinking it can't get worse.
Lol. Lmao. Hahahahahaha.
It can get so much worse than you can possibly imagine you little bitch
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China in 5 days
CHINA REDUCES TAX ON STOCK TRADING BY 50% TO BOOST MARKET
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There are three constants in life:
1. If a podboi says a company will beat earnings, you yolo calls
2. If a tigercub says a SaaS co is good, you yolo calls
3. If a value guy says a stock is cheap, you fade the fuck out of him and toss 20% in puts
I don’t make the rules
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5 step get rich plan:
1. YOLO with no risk management
2. Collect 20% performance fee
3. Repeat steps 1+2 every 1-2 years
4. Eventually blow up
5. Retain all previous performance fees
#EFT
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Someone needs to get this meme in front of world leaders fucking stat
This meme could shape the policy response globally
Few understand
#EFT
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WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISER RAMAMURTI: OIL REFINERS ARE TO BLAME FOR HIGH PRICES.
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Twas the night before QT and all through the FinTwit
Not a creature was stirring not even a crypto nitwit
Ladders were hung in the caves of the bear filled with fear
Afraid that inflation, it’s peak soon would be near
When what should my wondering eyes should appear
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Sure, being a podshop guy and spending 18 hours a day grinding out 250bps of alpha under the strict swatch of Ken’s Citadel skynet terminator system that decapitates a PM on a mere 2% drawdown is great
But imagine being a UPS driver and making the same base while flinging yolos
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It’s comedic we somehow managed to align a global energy crisis, Fed tightening cycle, massive decel on impossible comps, true macro weakness and a fuckton of micro-cycle peaks (earnings, semis, software, VC, private equity) all at once
Like god damn - we fucked
#EFT
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Thankfully LNG trains take 3 weeks to build and are easily financed
These aren’t 4-5y mega projects that require 50-60% capacity contracted ahead of time to get construction loans
Nor are they FERC regulated and require many shiny permits
#EFT
EU'S VON DER LEYEN: THE LNG FROM U.S. WILL REPLACE LNG FROM RUSSIA
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I am now long oil
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Generalists doing site visits on the pre-FID pre-financing pre-ground break $TELL $NEXT LNG trains in a couple months like
#EFT
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RIP to the great bear market of 2024
March 5, 2024 - March 5, 2024
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Sure sex is great
But imagine owning a diversified portfolio of monopolies $UNH $TMO $ASML $TSM $NVDA $TXN $CDW $META $GOOG $MSFT $TDG $TRGP $LNG $RIO $BHP $CMG $HD $MAR $V $MA $JPM
And never selling
I mean I’ll never do this b/c that’s boring af and for cowards
But imagine
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TL;DR of how this works guys:
(1) VIX term structure inverts and vanna causes selling due to OTM puts rolling up vol term structure
(2) ITM puts see daily charm selling
(3) Gamma moves caused by 1+2 also pressure downside
(4) We sing Kumbuya after opex breaks this loop
#EFT
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So what exactly happens when the cost of charging a Tesla/EV goes from $22 to $100-200 for a 250 mile charge because nat gas prices rip on ESG-destruction of O&G, and we face constant scarcity events/peak pricing on elec given forced retirement of fossil fuel generation
#EFT
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You can clearly see from the chart that there is a marked reversal here in trend and the bears are fucked
#EFT
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Twas the night before Nvidia
And all through the Bird app
Not a creature was stirring
Not even Tepper taking a cat nap
All the 0DTE options were hung in the portfolio with care
In the hope that a Nvidia beat and raise soon would be there
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Gas equities selling off on the decline of natural gas spot, despite them not going up on the increase in natural gas prices on the way up
This makes sense because gas E&Ps only go down in all cases
Thank you for coming to my TedTalk
#EFT
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@HighyieldHarry
“It’s like playing fetch, but every time you get within 5 feet of the ball it rolls 30ft farther down the street, and this keeps happening until you either give up as the dog or you break your owner who gives up and gives you the ball to play with”
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$NVDA beating and sending Naz higher resulting in cross asset equity correlations and a treasuries bid which causes a down move in oil is truly what god intended when he created factor models for Citadel right after the Big Bang
This occurred prior to breathing life into Adam
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We have an entire generation of tech investors who simply trust management teams now pivoting into the natural resources sector
I’m so excited to see the shit the Canadian junior mining promoters come up with over the next 3y
#EFT
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$AMZN is a profitless shitco and AWS capex is as big of a scam as $NFLX content amortization
Oh and cloud compute is a commodity
Thank you for coming to my Ted talk - the $AMZN beatings will continue until SaaS bros get fully freight trained by Powell and the macro
#EFT
*AMAZON WANTS TO SHED AT LEAST 10 MILLION SQUARE FEET OF SPACE
*AMAZON AIMS TO SUBLET, END WAREHOUSE LEASES AMID COOLING SALES
👀
@Hedgeye
@HedgeyeREITs
$AMZN
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6/ No but also fundamentals are useles. Momo, flows are all that matters. Do not use any of the above logic if you want to make $$$
Or maybe do use it and you might save yourself from losing $$$
Or maybe do the opposite and you might make even more $$$
Markets do be wildin
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Can we appreciate that like 5 months ago, people were justifying $VIAC price by running a 2025E TAM valuation on the streaming biz
When in reality some degenerate was just yoloing 10x margin on swap
I think about this a lot…
Also this chart is the greatest thing ever
#EFT
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2012 era Shale CEOs rolling up to conferences and pitching a 40 rig program and no FCF till 2020 were like:
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What is this? A geopolitical invasion and escalation rally for ants?
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Stripper Twitter has spoken
It’s fucking over boys and girls
Fucking. Over.
every month i tweet my economic predictions and just letting y’all know something has shifted in this country and it feels like we are on the precipice of something dark
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Wen he’s long secularly declining businesses in cyclical sectors with terrible competitive positioning because they trade at 2x EPS, 3.5x EBITDA and have 20% FCF yield with no terminal value
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So long generalists who decided to dabble in blue chip resources stocks such as $FCX $AA $DVN $PXD $NEM $OXY - we hope you’ll cherish these memories of getting rugged. They build character!👋
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How the fuck are we this stupid as a species
#EFT
BIDEN: EXXON SHOULD BEGIN INVESTING AND PAYING TAXES. $XOM
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5/ “But RTB this is in the multiple”
No it fucking isn’t - you think markets are efficient? You think people trading quarters even know what the fuck I just said?
Things are cheap or rich. They get displaced. Multiples overshoot
Stop being a lazy fuck and just run a DCF bitch
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Dear god it’s happening
Black Tuesday has arrived
God help us all
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2/ Now we have the fucking asset shitco’s. Mining. Metals. Shipping. Finite life assets. You buy some shit with the capex then the asset becomes fucking useless over time. Why? Idk man ships rust. Wells die. The DRC nationalizes your mine.
Asset value NPV over time be like:
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Friendly reminder that if you think markets are rational, $XLE is still trading below pre-covid selloff levels despite $80 oil, $6.25 natty and a global energy crisis
Flows are all that matters
Thanks for playing!
#EFT
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“Fuck around and find out - we’ll just ramp those sweet Guyana Gushers instead of that shale shit if you’re gonna try to do us dirty like this”
-RTB translation of the below
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“Netflix says the show has created $900mm in value but cost just $21mm to produce”
This makes sense because Netflix operates as a media co and is compensated through ad dollars based on viewership, and not a flat monthly subscription that is uncorrelated to content quality
#EFT
The Squid Game numbers are insane 🤯
Over 130 million people have watched at least 2 minutes of the show & 87 million people have already finished the entire series.
Netflix says the show has created $900 million in value but cost just $21 million to produce.
(h/t
@business
)
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I am now become Citrini, the destroyer of shorts
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Bonds trading at 70c when market defines distressed as <80c
Credit investors always the smart money… they sniffed out this bankruptcy a mile away
Few
#EFT
$DIS has about 4 quarters of cash left at the current burn rate. Let that sink in.
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Listen I’m not saying this whole $OXY levered oil beta trade isn’t going to work for Berkshire
But god damn, my man Buffet out here with some of the absolute worst god damn cyclicals timing I’ve ever seen
The chase 🏃♂️
#EFT
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Pod logic be like:
“Co’s gonna miss and cut but this means buy because pod shorts will cover, but shit’s gotten worse so they need to cut again in 3Q, but there are 75 days till next earnings and 20 days till credit card data hits so it’s a long for the next 69.420 hours”
#EFT
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1/ First we have the Russell. These are companies like fucking banks or shitty family owned businesses. They generate a return on assets and run the fuck in place. The good ones grow up and move to large cap ones. The shitcos die and file
Russells growth capacity as a chart:
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Few realize this is a metaphor for 20% FCF yield resources companies that are bottom 10% cost curve trading at 3x EBITDA at the peak of the cycle
Fellas, don’t let an $8 sundress from China cost you 6 figures in child support, your boat, your cars, and half your crypto.
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Oil and gas may never have a down day again at this point.
If you simply adjust for the SPR releases on US inventories, you’d see we’re hurtling towards crisis. Demand destruction is nonexistent. Europe is in shambles
Bears NGMI 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
#EFT
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This reminds me of the days preceding the fall of Constantinople in 1453, as citizens panic bid up exotic sub-derivatives of Byzantine payer swaptions
A worrying parallel to today, to say the least
#EFT
This looks a lot like 2008 before Lehman Brothers blew up.
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Grid reliability be like
#EFT
GERMAN MONDAY BASELOAD POWER TRADES AT 179 EUR/MWH TRDEBD3, UP 88.4% FROM FRIDAY DELIVERY AS WIND AND SOLAR SUPPLY EXPECTED TO HALVE
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Here's some simple math for the SaaS bros
If you were a 1% FCF yield business w rates at 0%, you're now a 4% FCF yield business w rates at 3%. Stock down 75%
But risk premia went out 300bp so you're a 7% FCF yield business now and your stock is down 85%
Thanks for playing!
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To everyone new to energy/metals not used to just getting dunked on randomly out of nowhere to the point where your sanity is tested
Welcome to the thunder dome baby
#EFT
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It’s actually extremely concerning oil stopped going up despite absolutely zero Russia resolution
🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩
#EFT
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Scott Sheffield after a decade of oil sadness, death, despair and a cardio event every 6 months exiting at the top:
BIG OIL M&A: ExxonMobil confirms it's buying US shale company Pioneer in an all-stock transaction valued at $59.5 billion ($253 per share).
$XOM statement is here:
And my
@Opinion
column last week previewing the deal is below:
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Thank god that we blocked the $JBLU $SAVE merger
$SAVE will now... err... file a chapter 7 and sell its planes to... uh... I guess $JBLU and $DAL because of a fly boi overbuild and $SAVE being literally the high cost industry shitco?
What a genius masterstroke by Lina Khan
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***rips bong***
Has Taiwan simply considered invading China to catch everyone off guard?
***coughing fit***
#EFT
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This should be framed and constantly revisited as a reminder of what constitute “rational market participants” whenever you make an investment thesis on something like fundamentals, valuation and rate of change
Take this tweet however you want 🥳
#EFT
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Friendly reminder to all those victory lapping a commodity meltup and not taking any profits:
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US gas production is stuck at 95bcf/d
This is kinda a big fucking issue ahead of ze summer air conditioner season
#EFT
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2022 energy bull thesis: “Buy high beta cyclicals on valuation into a recession because oil is no longer correlated to the macro”
Listen you might very well be right
But at face value that’s an aggressive bet to say the least
#EFT
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Hahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhaahahahahahahhaahahahahahahahahhaahhhahahhahahahaahhahahah
Europe is fucked
#EFT
EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS: Dutch government limits coal-fired power stations to operate at no more than 35% of their capacity from January 1 in an effort to cut CO2 emissions |
#EuropeanEnergyCrisis
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3/ Now we have the big boys. We call these shitcos “GDP Plus”. Fuck they might actually not even be shitcos. If the economy grows these things fucking grow. Health insurance. Consumer goods. Shit with a little bit of pricing power.
Their growth looks like this:
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When the PM asks you why your biggest position is down 40% after missing earnings by 1%
#EFT
A Nigerian official fake fainted after he was grilled about missing funds.
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This aged very, very well
#EFT
So what exactly happens when the cost of charging a Tesla/EV goes from $22 to $100-200 for a 250 mile charge because nat gas prices rip on ESG-destruction of O&G, and we face constant scarcity events/peak pricing on elec given forced retirement of fossil fuel generation
#EFT
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It’s absolutely hilarious the amount of Twitter rage right now if you don’t say “oil to the moon” 😂😂😂
You’d think after like 3 rug pulls and absolutely soul crushing implosions in 8y there’d be way more concern/paranoia on what could go wrong
#EFT
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･ *ﾟ
･ ﾟ*
･｡
*･｡
*.｡
｡･
°*. ﾟ
War puts from Friday are fucked
｡｡ ･
｡ ･ﾟ
｡°*.
｡*･｡
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Large cap shale: “We are capitally disciplined and will return value to shareholders”
#EFT
Matador: “Fuck off nerds. Drill baby drill. We’re fucking back.”
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The $RIG bear thesis:
They have a shitty contract book with materially contract rolloffs next 2 years
This is also the bull thesis.
Thank you for coming to my Ted talk
#EFT
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Trump teaching a young Vivek how to say big words but simultaneously mean nothing
I’m not an isolationist. I’m a Nixonian realist. The neoconservatives & liberal internationalists who can’t tell the difference between those things need to stand down and let a new generation lead our nation forward.
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Reject EV modernity
Embrace ICE tradition
It’s so over, we’re so back 2024
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Another AI winner breaking to new ATHs
We are so fucking early
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Tell me you know nothing about energy without telling me you know nothing about energy
#EFT
OPEC literally adjusts prices and output to maximize profits at ICE car drivers expense. Now almost $5 a gallon in LA. Why would you pay this when there are so many choices other than $100 a tank and killing the environment.
#ev
$tsla $fuv
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Glad to see futures green after everyone realizes no one gives a fuck about some random Swiss regional wealth management shitco role playing a money center bank
#EFT
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Friendly reminder that if Russia invades Ukraine there’s a decent chance energy stocks go down because vol immediately rips to 40 plus and equities go full correlations to 1
Much cleaner to hedge an invasion through outright long oil
#EFT
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*EOG RESOURCES CEO TO STEP DOWN
*SAID TO PURSUE PERSONAL AND SPIRITUAL GROWTH IN RETIREMENT TO FILL THE VOID OF ZERO PRODUCTION GROWTH
#EFT
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Nobody tell her natty and coal are up more, and set the marginal price of charging a Tesla in the US+Europe
#EFT
In response to the near quadrupling of oil prices since the low last year, electric vehicle adoption has accelerated, sowing the seeds of a serious oil price decline longer term.
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Friendly Reminder: We’re in a bear market
Double reminder: Bear markets bounce hard
Triple Reminder: Everything in DM is about to go into a 2-3Q profit recession/decel
Chaser: You might want to be long some things in DM
This game is fun
#EFT
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***hits blunt***
What if there has always been above trend inflation since 2010, it’s just been offset structurally by consistently declining natural gas prices?
***coughing fit***
#EFT
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I feel like no one truly appreciates how fucked the personal finances of the entire European Union population are right now…
#EFT
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Hot take on ‘22 energy:
(1) Gas goes back to <$2.50/mcf
(2) MVP canceled/pushed to ‘23
(3) Oil hits <$50/bbl
(4) Oil hits >$90/bbl
(5) E&Ps underperform oil; rerate to 3x/5x EBITDA on ShitCo/quality
(6) Dom South basis blows out
(7) Waha basis blows out
(8) No $TELL FID
#EFT
TL;DR of how this works guys:
(1) VIX term structure inverts and vanna causes selling due to OTM puts rolling up vol term structure
(2) ITM puts see daily charm selling
(3) Gamma moves caused by 1+2 also pressure downside
(4) We sing Kumbuya after opex breaks this loop
#EFT
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Sure, sex is great
But have you ever locked down a large southeast Asian nation just to fuck with oil bulls?
#EFT
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DON’T FUCKING DO THIS TO ME JIM
DON’T YOU FUCKING DARE
#EFF
Remember when Nat Gas was supposed to wreck the world in price? It's finishing its worst q EVER!
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