Citrini
@Citrini7
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Thematic Cross-Asset Investor. As heard on Bloomberg.
Connecticut, USA
Joined February 2021
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Pinned Tweet
Never really got to explain my reasoning for my $SIVB short - but suffice it to say now if you marked their holdings to market their book value would be negative
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@tolstoybb
ok but let’s lay this out right, im a paramedic and I get a call: “you have to go to the scene of an airplane crash, a pilot ejected from the plane”
there’s a big difference between showing up to the scene prepared for this guy (who seems like he probably just needed transport)…
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This is actually pretty sad.
A manager who’s been around for 3 decades, made a series of bad calls and went on tilt for a month and is now out.
“I have lost all confidence as a trader”….
This is what we all live in constant fear of.
It only takes one bad month. One wrongly…
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I watched this again and I’m 80% sure it’s going to be in a documentary ten years from now about a massive financial crisis
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@Alfred_Lin
imagine if it was someone’s job in the process of investing in a company to determine whether or not the company was deliberately misleading and lying to their investors
what would you even call something like that lol
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I have had serious ups and downs in trading. Just to name a few of the downs:
-Took relatively consistent hits to performance as volatility didn’t perform to my expectations during Q1 22
-Have had more inappropriately sized short dated option plays expire worthless on me than I…
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Can we just appreciate the possibility that someone got absolutely crushed on their shorts yesterday then showed up to take the train to work from jersey and their train was delayed because there is literally a bull running loose on the tracks?
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@alex_gurevich
@FatTailCapital
@Apple
Sorry your small business relies on insanely invasive measures to be profitable. Maybe provide a service that doesn’t have to gain access to our browsing habits across applications to turn a profit.
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there are basically two people you meet who are really successful traders ime:
1) near-sociopathic lack of emotion, completely detached
2) preexisting bipolar disorder or other unhingedness and therefore accustomed to and unaffected by PnL variance driven mood swings
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This is the first shitcoin I’ve ever bought and honestly this might be a crypto twitter account now
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This is a pretty based chart from
@fundstrat
I am pretty sure it should be clear that Tom isn’t using this analog to suggest NVDA takes the same course as CSCO but rather that if you want to start comparing NVDA to CSCO in the dot com bubble…you better cover your fcking short.
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look at him
that’s my quant
my quantitative
notice anything different about him?
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Remember what Soros said; a bubble gives you 3 great opportunities to make money:
1) buy in the beginning
2) short at the top
3) buy at the trough of disillusionment
If you think something in the market is a bubble, you should be trying to take advantage of all three.
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･ *ﾟ
･ ﾟ*
･｡
*･｡
*.｡
｡･
°*. ﾟ
bubbles last longer
than you think they will.
｡｡ ･
｡ ･ﾟ
｡°*.
｡*･｡
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I literally check every flight I take to make sure it’s not on a 737-MAX.
I’ve canceled flights for this reason before and seeing this makes me feel less like a paranoid idiot.
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Many of you suffer from “imposter syndrome”. This will help, I hope. I know how easy it is to think you don’t belong, or that everyone else knows what’s going on and you don’t.
Let me tell you right now, if you are in finance, doing well & struggling with these imposter…
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the masculine urge to say fuck it and put it all in off the run 29 year treasuries at 5% then leave forever
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guy selling Palestinian & Israeli flags near grand central is doing capitalism in its purest form imo
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If we are being perfectly frank, it’s a lonely position to take to defend the idea that a long will continue to outperform the market once it has already done so in a significant manner for an extended period of time.
It’s much more sexy and fun to be controversial and…
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hearing rumors that a private credit pod was trying to arbitrage the treasury basis with a ladder attack in the forex repo market and is now blowing up after hitting the 0dte option maturity wall? anyone have color on this?
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Okay yeah I might short apple actually
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I’m getting into long HSI/short NKY.
I said my nice thing about the guy who blew up.
Now I’m gonna finish the job he started.
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Shorts have finite upside that can only be increased by, more or less, a martingale approach. Shorts get smaller as they work and become less important to your overall PnL.
Longs will become more of your portfolio naturally as the position succeeds. The upside is theoretically…
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“we’re gonna have a recession” is not a call.
it’s a literal statement of fact. more or less it is how economies work. eventually we will have a recession. why? because we’ve had a recovery.
I only point this out because, as someone who has been in the “we are not gonna have a…
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@SamanthaLaDuc
@JerrBearr
@thatgirltrader
@GraphFinancials
There is just a severe lack of understanding about the incentives here from most who wish to peddle this narrative. Those who are accusing Jensen of fraud should at least take the time to understand the business model. How would you like it if someone accused you of fraud without…
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Here are some specialists to follow if you’re a generalist investor in multiple asset classes/markets.
i know I’ve said this before but if you want to be a generalist you’re gonna have a really bad time without the humility & self-awareness necessary to recognize sectors /…
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Today’s 10 year anniversary of the most exhausting days of work in my life. 27 hour long shift: two gunshot wounds, an overdose victim who became violent and attacked me after we pushed Narcan & a pregnant woman in respiratory arrest we ended up intubating.
Yesterday, I made…
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>2019
>try biscoff cookie
>cookie tastes good
>buy cookie stock
>don’t sell cookie stock, cookies still taste good
>outperform SPX by 180%
guys are we maybe over complicating this whole investing thing??
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Randomly pitched SMCI by someone who I haven’t spoken to in 2 years.
It might be over bros.
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I tweeted that
@RobertKennedyJr
raised some important questions about vaccine safety and now I am being labeled a Qanon conspiracist by some and a member of the alt-right by others.
I have long believed that incentives drive all human behavior. This gives me reason to be open…
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think about how lucky we are to be very passionate about something that just so happens to be one of the most effective ways to make a ton of money
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I have some anecdata, was in Tribeca last night at the Greenwich hotel. I’m up at 2:30AM because duh. My windows directly looking at the Citi HQ and there’s one light on in the whole building, conference room: There’s 4 guys in it visibly having a breakdown (yelling, pacing etc).
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Guy on Bloomberg this AM:
“It’s so hard for us to beat the SPX that our biggest overweight position is long SPX”
Become the tail you wish to see in the world.
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>cpi hotter than consensus, sell
>but wait actually consensus was that cpi would be hotter than consensus so that’s a buy
>but actually wait that cpi number is still kinda hot so maybe sell
what are we doing here people, honestly…
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bro, man, I get it. we’re having a good time being long NVDA. but that’s no reason to wear this war crime of an outfit.
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I have a very simple playbook for 2024 that is actually more subtly complex than it appears:
1) As long as SPX is below ATH, keep net exposure near zero or negative.
2) As long as SPX is above ATH, keep net exposure very positive.
Simpol.
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Video of SPX hitting ATH as Marine One lands with POTUS in NYC & the Statue of Liberty is in the background.
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A bit of advice that’s actually NFA this Friday:
When good things happen to people, my first reaction has only ever been to be stoked for them.
I’ve met people that seem to take good things happening to people who aren’t them as some sort of personal affront, and their first…
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All the sick fucks on this website rooting for a stock market crash should take a look at this idk
People's portfolio losses in 2009, from 60 Minutes:
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You, 2 years ago: man if I could get 4.5% risk free for 30 years I’d just stick all my money in there and go to the beach
You, now: I think it probably goes up another 20 or 22bps so I’m gonna wait
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Everyone sees this and doesn’t notice the nearly 5M drawdown a month in that would make most normies soil themselves and quit.
Whoever this guy is, he isn’t lucky. He’s got balls of steel and bets more.
Lessons there.
Guy on Wallstreetbets has done +$18m (1000%) YTD.
Might lose it all, but you cannot discount the actual thesis.
Just some trade and risk management is probably needed.
Really hope he just quits when he’s content with his winnings! 😫
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“Wall Street has ruined me, and Wall Street will pay.”
Jim Fisk’s confederate bond short is one of the greats, with much more pizzazz than Rothschild’s informational edge on the gilt market after the outcome of Waterloo, but not many are aware of the story.
Found the burial site of stockbroker and robber baron Diamond Jim Fisk, business partner of Jay Gould, who’s tomb and monument features sculptures of women holding railroad bonds
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I keep saying it…
If you’re a trader you’re gonna make the vast majority of your money during crises that cause volatility. That’s gonna mean:
Credit Suisse “absolutely not” at 3AM
Lebanese rockets at 4AM
Etc.
Don’t sleep when shit is hitting the fan.
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Over the past decade investing has become easier but investment managers have failed (or been unwilling) to adapt to this and, in doing so, perceived it as more difficult.
Here’s a rare objective truth in investing: alpha eventually becomes beta. What’s alpha in technology…
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Macro strategists in absolute shambles, this dude has a full time job being a star athlete and pretty much just gave the same analysis at least a few of you are!
They asked Chiefs players about rate cut expectations and Justin Watson actually cooked
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Imagine how angry everyone would be if breadth just got better but at the same time the mega caps kept going up
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if anyone is wondering the psychological approach I’ll be taking to trading this week, this summarizes it pretty well
Shoutout to this Kuwait airlines plane opting to drive straight home directly through the Iranian air strike. I love this pilot. Ice in his veins.
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the dog has a hat.
does the S&P 500 have a hat? the ten year treasury? dollar yen?
yeah, that’s what I thought. looks like we know what we should be trading then.
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In real terms the SPX is still down about 9% from its all time highs. Someone had to say it, sorry.
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I love all of you.
That's it, that's the tweet. I think fintwit is actually great.
Happy new year mfers.
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I guarantee you that 95% of you who try managing your own money will underperform the index.
And I guarantee you that 98% of you who outperform the index will do so with a worse sharpe.
And we’re still here, trying, because we are idiots and/or because we love it.
I guarantee 99% of you will blow up in one or all of these phases.
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Recognizing when you’re wrong and doing something about it is the most important aspect of this game, and it’s why I have less than no respect for the fintwit accounts that continually double down on bad theses for fear of losing face. That’s not trading.
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The reason I love trading is because the first time I was correct I got a feeling that was pretty much unrivaled and honestly it’s been the same exact feeling every time. Its not so much a victory feeling as a drive to win again. I think if you’re the kind of person who feels…
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Is it normal to just stop blinking once you’ve won as much as Ken has?
The SEC has made it less attractive for companies to be public, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin told
@SquawkStreet
, calling it a "tragic mistake." Watch CNBC's full interview with Griffin.
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Alright…
Here you go. I’ve removed the paywall on the article “Upgrading from Overweight: The Effect of GLP-1 Drugs on the Investment Landscape” published on July 11th, 2023.
Enjoy!
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10yr: 4.99%
investors: this does not satisfy my needs
10yr: 5%
investors: I would like to buy all the bonds plz
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This was a week that deserves a thread, especially on the macro side. I’ve already spoken enough about the bank stuff, here’s how my macro book did better than any other strategy I have this week.
Mega thread incoming:
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I physically cannot bring myself to read a 2024 outlook from a big bank, for fear that their ideas accidentally poison my own, but can someone very quickly summarize what they’re saying so I know what consensus is
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I was at a JPM event a bit ago and, during a Q&A, this very confident German woman proclaimed that Germany is in a recession. She didn’t ask a question, she just let the presenter know
1) you’re wrong and 2) Germany is f*cked.
Literally been convinced of this fact since then.
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there’s rules to this shit, I wrote me a manual
a step by step booklet for you to get your game on track not your weight pushed back
rule nombre uno:
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I have only seen a handful of traders that make me say “this is someone doing art”.
Let me tell you the most impressive thing about one of them. I was super early in my trading journey, just kind of observing. And he has on a pretty massive L/S position trading intraday sector…
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I’m aware it’s cringe but I’m real stoked to have had one of my thematic baskets cited by The Economist. I used to read it as a kid.
With the recent moves in $FNMA, $FMCC, $GEO and $DWAC, which were all overweighted, our Long Trump / Short Biden basket that we posted about four…
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A handy guide to figuring out whether your thesis will pay off, based on your initial reaction:
“this is so fucking clever” - works maybe 10% of the time, likely drawdown before it does
“well…yeah, that’s fucking obvious” - best trade you’ll ever have in your life
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doomer accounts 🤝 trailing 12 month P/E
Eli Lilly is a crazy story. The stock is 84% owned by institutions (boomer pension funds).
With a P/E of 140, there's no way this doesn't destroy people's retirement savings when it collapses.
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broke: omg these people are so dumb
woke: that’s what makes a market
bespoke: i pray for the dumbest possible counterparties & i encourage any media that makes them dumber
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I’m starting to doubt that Powell could talk this market down with anything short of a literal hike.
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Everyone is freaking out about the CSI 1000, an index I guarantee you almost nobody talking about it on here has ever traded even once.
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@GoodsCapital
So many things.
1) taxes (as a US citizen you’re gonna get about 30k on that 47, depending on income tax bracket)
2) nobody wants to live where you can live for 30k a year
3) they can bring the Fed funds rate back to zero and then you’re screwed
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I don’t know what’s so controversial about “it’s easier to make money in a raging bull market entering bubble territory” that has Mr. Kao trying to paint me like some AI Icarus. (Never even interacted with him).
I’m already selling stuff. I exited SMCI completely. I might even…
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I don’t mean to rub it in or anything but it’s been a year and we’re still not in a recession. Sell side and doomers will keep kicking can down the road until they are eventually right, but I think it’s safe to say the people calling for no recession were correct.
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do you guys know you can trade both Bitcoin and gold? why tf are you picking sides in an imaginary battle
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gonna only say this once
(and then retweet it when it’s inevitably correct)
short banks like 3 months before BTFP renewal deadline
cover & flip long banks like two weeks before it
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I think the most valuable skill that can be honed by a trader is learning how to listen to your gut.
You know that you know whether a position is going to suck…deep down, before it sucks, you know.
Fostering an ability to listen to instinct is akin to mastery.
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This in the library, in his house (a city block in Manhattan) that JP Morgan locked the bankers in during the panic of 1907.
As a country, the quality of our wealthiest has declined from such heights into such unbelievable depths.
All I’m sayin’ is, Powell would never have the guts to lock Jamie Dimon in a library.
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I have read “excess consumer savings are nearly tapped out” in sell side macro stuff for what feels like 24 straight months…
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oh husbant you did not buy the dip on the strong jobs number and now we are homeress
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If you don’t think the mindfuck that the market has engaged in, convincing so many that tech would never go up again because of higher rates just before it ripped harder than ever, is a beautiful symphony then idk what you’re doin here
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gentle reminder that it’s still Saturday so please consider refraining from truly ridiculous takes at least until futures open
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“there’s no fundamentals in crypto”
obvious evidence to the contrary:
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If you’re tempted to buy SMCI you could just buy Wistron and get the same exposure pretty much. For a lot cheaper. 3231 TT (Taiwanese stocks trade through IBKR now if you’re unsure of how to buy).
I have been long both for almost a year now. And they were very correlated up…
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Citrini Research cited in the Economist
2/ But a lot of info is still embedded in what assets do and don't get pushed around by political shifts. And some really do -- the basket below from
@Citrini7
pulls many of these together.
Lots of examples in the piece, but one that stuck with me was European defence stocks.
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Legitimately some people don’t understand risk and just expect you to consistently double down.
What happened to my MSTR short? It was stopped out. Why am I not talking about it? Because it was stopped out.
Anyone who just doubles down and is like “oh no it’ll drop eventually”…
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